NHL Draft Probabilities For BCHL Picks

The Data below is for all players who played predominantly in the British Columbia Junior Hockey League (and zero games in the CHL) in their first year of NHL draft eligibility.

ABOUT THE DATA (for more information about the data, click here)

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP. The chart at the bottom is for Expected GP and PTS.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

* Over 60% of the BCHL sample was drafted in the 5th round or later. So while their NHL games played milestones are considerably lower than the average draft pick, considering where the majority are drafted, it's not that bad. You just need lowered expectations.

*Forwards from the BCHL have a far better track record of success than defensemen.

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%	x	x
19	98.1%	1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	x
20	91.8%	8.2%	8.2%	0.0%	x
21	86.4%	13.6%	11.4%	4.5%	0.0%
22	72.7%	27.3%	18.2%	6.8%	0.0%
23	70.3%	29.7%	27.0%	10.8%	0.0%
24	65.6%	34.4%	28.1%	21.9%	9.4%
25	69.2%	30.8%	23.1%	19.2%	11.5%
	PROBABILITY OF NHL PTS MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	x
19	98.1%	1.9%	1.9%	0.0%	x
20	91.8%	8.2%	6.1%	0.0%	x
21	88.6%	11.4%	9.1%	0.0%	0.0%
22	81.8%	18.2%	13.6%	2.3%	0.0%
23	73.0%	27.0%	16.2%	8.1%	0.0%
24	71.9%	28.1%	21.9%	9.4%	0.0%
25	76.9%	23.1%	19.2%	11.5%	3.8%
	PROBABILITY OF AHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	x
19	90.6%	9.4%	0.0%	0.0%	x
20	79.6%	20.4%	16.3%	0.0%	x
21	61.4%	38.6%	27.3%	6.8%	x
22	45.5%	54.5%	40.9%	18.2%	0.0%
23	27.0%	73.0%	59.5%	27.0%	0.0%
24	25.0%	75.0%	65.6%	34.4%	0.0%
25	26.9%	73.1%	61.5%	38.5%	3.8%

	STATS/PICKS
	NHL	NHL	AHL	AHL
AGE	GP	PTS	GP	PTS
18	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
19	1.2	0.4	0.5	0.3
20	2.5	1.2	8.0	4.2
21	5.8	3.0	14.6	6.3
22	8.3	3.9	18.1	11.0
23	11.4	5.0	17.7	9.1
24	15.8	9.4	16.3	6.7
25	14.5	8.9	8.0	3.9
Sum	59.6	31.8	83.3	41.3

Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Then there is the ability to determine what proportion of the sample is earning what salary at any given age.  $0 players are those who play zero regular season games in the AHL or NHL. It's important to note that these are not career earnings below, but rather for that specific age.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included.

Analysis:

*15% of the BCHL sample will earn over $1M dollars at age 25. That is close to the number or the average NHL draft pick.

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$0	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%
19	$1,225,625	90.6%	7.5%	1.9%	0.0%
20	$157,521	77.6%	22.4%	0.0%	0.0%
21	$339,927	63.6%	34.1%	2.3%	0.0%
22	$310,754	50.0%	45.5%	4.5%	0.0%
23	$377,825	35.1%	56.8%	8.1%	2.7%
24	$569,332	43.8%	43.8%	12.5%	3.1%
25	$575,817	57.7%	26.9%	15.4%	3.8%
sum	$3,556,800
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$37,269	$1,188,356	$1,188,356	$38,909	$122,563
20	-$114,607	$272,128	$1,460,484	$15,368	$32,038
21	-$5,142	$345,069	$1,805,553	$23,808	$46,005
22	-$34,380	$345,133	$2,150,686	$24,623	$52,394
23	$2,796	$375,029	$2,525,715	$32,308	$73,922
24	$114,647	$454,685	$2,980,400	$35,934	$60,327
25	$57,487	$518,330	$3,498,730	$39,817	$64,811
Sum	$58,070

Development Matrix

If you would like to see how a sample of draft picks advances through different leagues and skill levels, welcome to the Development Matrix (or more correctly, matrices). If a draft pick played at least 1 game at any level last year, where is he likely to go next year?

Important Notes:

* KHL = Russian Elite, EurMA  = Euro Mainland Elite (Czeck, Slovakia, Germany, Swiss), ScanA = Scandinavian Elite (Sweden and Finland), EurB = All of the 2nd tier European leagues, EurJr = All European junior leagues,  CHL = Canadian Major Junior, WJC = Under 20 World Junior Championship, Tier II = All North American amateur that doesn't ruin NCAA eligibility, USDP = United States Development Program

* Age 17 is the first year of NHL draft eligibility.

* Charts meant to be read left to right, not up and down.

* Do not sum the numbers in any direction. It is what percentage of the sample played at least 1 game at any level and many play at more than one level.

Analysis:

*Over half of the sample that played BCHL at age 17 return to Tier II Junior at age 18. 12% go to the CHL and most of the rest go to the NCAA

*BCHL players rarely play in U20 World Junior Championship

%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 18
Sample	at Age 17	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	NCAA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	CHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	WJC	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
100%	Tier II	11.5%	40.4%	0.0%	1.9%
0.0%	USDP	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 19
Sample	at Age 18	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
1.9%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
0.0%	AHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
39.6%	NCAA	14.3%	81.0%	14.3%	4.8%
11.3%	CHL	100.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%
1.9%	WJC	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
56.6%	Tier II	10.0%	73.3%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	AGE 20
Sample	at Age 19	CHL	NCAA	AHL	NHL
1.9%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
9.4%	AHL	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	20.0%
0.0%	ECHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
73.6%	NCAA	5.4%	89.2%	13.5%	5.4%
15.1%	CHL	14.3%	0.0%	57.1%	14.3%
1.9%	WJC	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7.5%	Tier II	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 21
Sample	at Age 20	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
6.1%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%
20.4%	AHL	0.0%	22.2%	66.7%	44.4%
10.2%	ECHL	0.0%	80.0%	20.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
75.5%	NCAA	78.8%	6.1%	24.2%	6.1%
6.1%	CHL	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%	0.0%
0.0%	Eurjr	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	Tier II	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 22
Sample	at Age 21	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
13.6%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%
31.8%	AHL	0.0%	0.0%	85.7%	64.3%
11.4%	ECHL	0.0%	80.0%	40.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
59.1%	NCAA	57.7%	23.1%	30.8%	7.7%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 23
Sample	at Age 22	NCAA	ECHL	AHL	NHL
27.3%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	60.0%	90.0%
43.2%	AHL	0.0%	25.0%	81.3%	43.8%
22.7%	ECHL	0.0%	62.5%	50.0%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
0.0%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2.3%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
34.1%	NCAA	8.3%	66.7%	58.3%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 24
Sample	at Age 23	KHL	ECHL	AHL	NHL
27.0%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	88.9%
54.1%	AHL	0.0%	35.3%	58.8%	29.4%
40.5%	ECHL	0.0%	53.8%	30.8%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5.4%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
5.4%	ScanA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%
2.7%	EurB	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2.7%	NCAA	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%
%  of	Played Here		Then played here at	Age 25
Sample	at Age 24	KHL	ECHL	AHL	NHL
28.1%	NHL	0.0%	0.0%	28.6%	85.7%
37.5%	AHL	0.0%	12.5%	37.5%	12.5%
28.1%	ECHL	0.0%	71.4%	42.9%	0.0%
0.0%	KHL	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3.1%	EurMA	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%