NHL Draft Top 10 Picks: Forwards Vs Defensemen

You often hear the experts say that drafting forwards to the NHL in the first round of the draft carries less risk than drafting defensemen. This can be proven empirically, with forwards having significantly more success at the pro level than defenders. My personal theory is that it is more difficult to forecast how amateur defending will translate to the pro level. Some prospects can defend teenagers very well, but get exposed competing against adults.

So how big is the difference between Forwards and Defense drafted in the top 10? We'll answer that below.

ABOUT THE DATA (for more info about the data, click here)

The 2016 NHL Draft Study is basically spreadsheet of nearly every NHL draft pick from 2004 - 2013 (goalies and players older than 21 on draft day not included), almost 2000 players total. The data includes production, games played at every level/age, and salary earned between age 18 and 25. The entire sample has only played in the NHL under a salary cap. Statistics from the 2015/16 season have yet to be added.

Age: In this study, age refers to how old the player is on Sept 15th of any given season, since that's the draft cut off. It means that the "18 year old season" is the season after the first year of draft eligibility regardless of what month the player was born.

Statistical Career Milestone Probabilities

Below are 3 charts to determine the probability that a player reaches any given career milestone for NHL GP, NHL PTS, and AHL GP.

Important Notes:

*It is intended as a cumulative probability, but because of the nature of this time-series analysis, doesn't always behave that way.

Analysis:

*Top 10 forwards get to the NHL much faster than defensemen. It does start to even out as age increases.


FORWARDS

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	49.2%	50.8%	38.5%	x	x
19	20.0%	80.0%	75.4%	35.4%	x
20	1.7%	98.3%	93.1%	56.9%	x
21	1.8%	98.2%	94.6%	78.6%	5.4%
22	0.0%	100.0%	98.0%	87.8%	32.7%
23	0.0%	100.0%	97.6%	87.8%	46.3%
24	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	91.2%	67.6%
25	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	92.9%	85.7%

DEFENSEMEN

	PROBABILITY OF NHL GP MILESTONES
AGE	0	1	10	100	300
18	72.7%	27.3%	21.2%	x	x
19	27.3%	72.7%	57.6%	21.2%	x
20	10.0%	90.0%	80.0%	40.0%	x
21	4.8%	95.2%	85.7%	66.7%	9.5%
22	5.6%	94.4%	88.9%	77.8%	16.7%
23	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	87.5%	37.5%
24	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	92.3%	61.5%
25	0.0%	100.0%	100.0%	88.9%	55.6%

Salary and Expected Value

The Salary and Expected Value charts below provide some interesting information. The 18 year season is not included in the expected value calculation because only a tiny proportion of the population of draft picks are ready to jump immediately to the NHL, and there is very little variation in the salaries of those that do.

Salary: Refers to NHL salary cap hit as listed at NHL Numbers.com, plus up to $50,000 per AHL season.

Expected Value: This is the amount a player earned in salary minus the expected salary of a player drafted in that position, at each age.

Important Notes:

*Salary/Pro: This variable is calculated by total amount of salary divided by the number of players who have turned pro (AHL or NHL).

*The sum at the bottom of SALARY INFO chart, the salary from age 18 is not included

Analysis:

* From age 19 to 25, forwards drafted top ten will earn roughly $5M more than defense.

FORWARDS

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$2,725,454	47.7%	13.8%	38.5%	0.0%
19	$2,203,079	9.2%	30.8%	60.0%	0.0%
20	$1,810,320	1.7%	29.3%	69.0%	0.0%
21	$2,572,685	3.6%	16.1%	80.4%	21.4%
22	$2,986,254	4.1%	16.3%	79.6%	28.6%
23	$3,592,107	2.4%	14.6%	82.9%	39.0%
24	$3,662,259	2.9%	14.7%	82.4%	41.2%
25	$3,946,493	10.7%	10.7%	78.6%	50.0%
sum	$20,773,197
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$59,633	$2,143,445	$2,143,445	$36,408	$63,019
20	$21,760	$1,788,560	$3,932,005	$34,011	$55,240
21	$111,361	$2,461,324	$6,393,329	$41,617	$59,130
22	-$8,789	$2,995,044	$9,388,373	$52,410	$72,762
23	$64,239	$3,527,869	$12,916,242	$63,521	$91,519
24	$71,341	$3,590,918	$16,507,160	$67,053	$101,481
25	$184,504	$3,761,989	$20,269,149	$68,338	$88,472
Sum	$504,049

DEFENSEMEN

	SALARY INFO
		% of players earning this salary range
AGE	Salary/Pro	$0	< $1M	> $ 1M	> $4M
18	$2,339,141	57.6%	27.3%	15.2%	0.0%
19	$2,234,370	21.2%	30.3%	48.5%	0.0%
20	$1,537,494	0.0%	43.3%	56.7%	0.0%
21	$1,973,833	0.0%	38.1%	61.9%	9.5%
22	$2,342,549	0.0%	33.3%	66.7%	16.7%
23	$2,977,547	0.0%	25.0%	75.0%	31.3%
24	$3,066,806	0.0%	30.8%	69.2%	30.8%
25	$1,858,988	0.0%	44.4%	55.6%	11.1%
sum	$15,991,587
	SALARY AND EXPECTED VALUE
AGE	Salary-E[V]	E[V]	Sum(E{V])	Salary/GP	Salary/PTS
19	$185,392	$2,048,978	$2,048,978	$37,077	$113,815
20	$8,824	$1,528,670	$3,577,648	$34,550	$117,068
21	-$233,938	$2,207,771	$5,785,419	$37,648	$107,944
22	-$427,630	$2,770,179	$8,555,598	$44,153	$122,575
23	-$489,702	$3,467,249	$12,022,847	$49,216	$150,762
24	-$656,707	$3,723,512	$15,746,360	$50,086	$162,728
25	-$1,531,205	$3,390,194	$19,136,553	$40,511	$140,596
Sum	-$3,144,966