Early 2019 NHL Free Agent Predictions

What can we expect NHL free agents to get paid this summer? I looked at the top 80 pending non-goalie free agents and calculated an expected term and salary based on their pre-Christmas statistics and how they compare to past pending free agents. RFAs can be more difficult than UFAs, due largely to the difference between a bridge deal and a long term extension. UFAs don't typically get "bridge deals", they get the best offer from 31 teams.

UFA Forwards

UFA forwards can be both the easiest and most difficult to predict, since teams do not have ownership over the players to squeeze them into team friendly deals. It's easier not having to account for bridge deals, but difficult based on the irrational decision making by GMs trying to save their jobs on July 1. Desperate times can call for desperate measures.

RFA Forwards

It's a difficult task to do a comparables analysis of Auston Matthews, since his peer group is a very small sample size. There are no comparables that produced the number I'm predicting, as I'm injecting my own optimism into the equation. Similarly, it's also difficult to pick a number for Patrik Laine, as I would buy anything between $8M and $11M AAV.  Rantanen will be tough too, since his production justifies a number in the 7x$9M range, but I fully expect Sakic to leverage him against the MacKinnon contract, possibly squeezing him into a $6.5M bridge deal.

UFA Defensemen

Erik Karlsson is going to be getting a monster contract, but there's a greater than zero chance that he takes less money to play for a more desirable team. If you go simply by ice time and points, Tyler Myers would be getting far less than 5x$6M. My prediction was inflated due to the scarcity of top 4 defensemen under the age of 30 on the UFA market. He's going to get a big number, and there's a strong chance it ends up on "worst contracts" list at some point in the future.

RFA Defensemen

One year at $6.3M is not what my "comparables calculator" projected for Trouba. There was a bit of intuition in my revised prediction since I do not believe he wants to stay in Winnipeg long term. He's probably going to get a 1 year arbitration prize then walk via unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. I wouldn't be shocked to see Werenski get 6x$6M, but I suspect that management will try to squeeze him into a bridge deal like they did with Johansen.