Revised 2019 NHL Free Agency Predictions

What can we expect NHL free agents to get paid this summer? Back during the Christmas holidays, near the half-way point of the NHL Schedule, I made several predictions for free agency outcomes in the summer of 2019. Some of those players have already signed prior to July 1, and some of those predictions were very close, two were not. The Matthews predictions was based on the likelihood of an offer sheet had he waited to sign.

Already Signed

This is all done by looking at comparable free agents over the last 10 years, looking at their statistics before free agency, and taking an average of the term and adjusted salary on the contracts they received (this database has over 4000 entries). When you are looking at the highest skilled players like Matthews, the sample size is small. The hardest predictions are for the elite tier. There is some guess-work involved depending on the individual player circumstances, RFA vs UFA, and the salary cap constraints of their teams.

Here are my revised predictions, sorted by type.

UFA Forwards

RFA Forwards

The problem with predicting RFA term is figuring out if they get a bridge deal or a long-term contract. As the term gets higher, the expected salary also tends to get higher, at least for RFAs and especially if you are buying UFA years. There's a strong case to be made that Marner and Point deserve more money than what is predicted below, but both their teams find themselves in perilous salary cap situations. The team constraints should lower their expected salary, unless someone else is brave enough to make an offer sheet.

UFA Defensemen

My Christmas prediction for Erik Karlsson (the biggest prize in this year's UFA D class)  was much higher, at $10M AAV. But after the injuries he sustained in the 2nd half and the fact that he looked "gassed" in the playoffs has to have a few teams nervous about signing him long-term at too high of a price. It could be a beneficial gamble to do a 1 year contract and prove that he's still elite and healthy, but that could backfire if he's not. This is certainly a thin crop of to choose from, so teams looking to bolster their bluelines will have to overpay to get one of the top guys.

RFA Defensemen

My prediction for Trouba is based on the assumption that he's going to arbitration. We know he's not signing long-term in Winnipeg, so he'll need to traded before inking a deal over 1 year.