Happy
July 1st! Normally the opening day of NHL free agency is a national
holiday in Canada, but Covid has forced the delay of free agent frenzy and the
Government of Canada has decided not to move Canada Day to November. For all my
fellow Canadians experiencing painful free agent frenzy withdrawal symptoms
today, I’d like to help fill that void with a little methadone by posting my
annual NHL free agency predictions. Nothing can truly substitute for the joy of
watching TSN panels breaking news and praising terrible contracts, but this will
have to do.
Last
year’s predictions had some success. Out of 130 predictions, I predicted the
term within 1 year for 78% and the salary within $1M for 77%. In terms of total
money spent, I predicted $1.9 Billion but they only collected $1.8 Billion. My
biggest whiff was Auston Matthews, whom I had set at an offer sheet type price.
He came in way under. I had Erik Karlsson getting $7.5M and he got $11.5M. I
set Jacob Trouba at 1 year $6.6M assuming it would be with the Winnipeg Jets,
then he got moved to New York and signed long-term. I had Panarin at $9M but he
got $11.5. When all was said and done, my predicted salary had a 91%
correlation to actual salary earned.
I’m
hoping to improve my performance in 2020, but Covid-19 and the economic uncertainty
the NHL has going forward does really throw a screwball into the whole forecasting
process. If I were a sportsbook setting gambling lines on free agent outcomes,
I’d be very concerned about gamblers pounding the unders. I made a preliminary round
of predictions over the Christmas holidays, and some of those players have
signed extensions.
I’m already off to a better start than last year, here
are the rest:
(Sorry, I accidently posted Brendan Lemieux in the wrong group)
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