Tuesday, December 22, 2020

Best NHL Contracts 2020

What are the best 15 bargain contracts in the NHL? (Entry level not included) The year is 2020 and we are mostly concerned with what is still remaining on the deals, rather than what they accomplished prior to this year. This is not just an exercise in ranking the best players in the league, but rather who represents the best bargains for their remaining term. One of my criteria to define “bargain” is anyone making less than $10M per season. Anyone who wants to argue that Connor McDavid is a bargain as the highest paid player might have a valid point, but it does go against the spirit of this list.

Over the summer I ran a series of Twitter polls to help determine the best contracts, but made some adjustments after the 2020 Covid Cup. It does really need to be pointed out that from the player perspective, it is no great honor appearing on this list because it means that they are earning significantly less than their market value. A few of these guys might want to consider firing their agents if they haven’t already.

To view last year’s list, click here:

The following summaries were clipped from my book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, the first installment in a 2-part series titled “How to Win and Lose at NHLFree Agency.” 

 

1) Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado:


    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6.3M
    Signing GM: Joe Sakic, July 8, 2016

"I was just excited to get paid that much money at such a young age."

– Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon wants you to know that he doesn’t care that his contract is a ridiculously low-priced mega-bargain, and claims he’ll take another discount on his next deal. Too bad the Avalanche don’t re-invest their savings and spend to the cap. On the open market, MacKinnon could get whatever price he wants, even a max deal, as most consider him to be among the five best players in the NHL. It’s ironic to say that a kid who banked $44M is critically underpaid. He should be able to get off food stamps when he signs his next deal.

MacKinnon came within an inch of winning the Hart Trophy in 2018 and will be a perennial contender for the foreseeable future. Nate was actually slightly over-paid in year one, then was shot out of a cannon in year two. It doesn’t matter who you put on his line, he’s a machine. Nate also made Mikko Rantanen a rich man.

Fun fact: MacKinnon signed for the exact same year one adjusted cap hit as fellow first overall pick John Tavares received on a 6-year deal in 2011. That may not be a coincidence. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also received a comparatively similar deal 3 years earlier. There was a historical precedence for this structure.

 

 

2) Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton:


    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $8.5M
    Signing GM: Peter Chiarelli, Aug 16, 2017

"For me, it was never a question of going anywhere else or signing anywhere else. That never even crossed my mind. I wanted to stay in Edmonton, I feel very comfortable there. I think we have a great group of guys and we're building something special."

– Leon Draisaitl

When Leon Draisaitl signed this 8-year extension in 2017, it seemed like a substantial overpayment based on comparables. Elite young centers like Barkov, Scheifele, and MacKinnon were getting paid much less, so there was some logical sense to the conclusion that Leon should have received a smaller sum. It was nominally the exact same salary that Steven Stamkos received as an unrestricted free agent one year earlier. 

But it was perhaps Evgeny Kuznetsov who first shifted the market for young RFA centers 6 weeks earlier, followed by Ryan Johansen, then Leon. Draisaitl had a scoring regression in year one, only strengthening the argument of anyone saying he was overpaid. That all changed in year two when he became one of the league’s top scorers, playing over 22 minutes per night, topping 100 PTS.

Any debate about whether or not he’s a bargain has been settled. Anyone who wanted to argue that his production explosion should be credited to playing with Connor McDavid, inflating his numbers beyond what he should be capable of producing, lost the argument in year three when Leon was moved off McDavid’s line and continued to score at an elite level. Draisaitl is the real deal and has become drastically underpaid, winning the Hart trophy in 2020.


 

 3) David Pasternak, Boston:


    Age: 24
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6.8M
    Signing GM: Don Sweeney, Sep 14, 2017

"It took time right up against it; there wasn't a deadline, we didn't look at it that way, there was a strong level of communication. And I just think the work paid off for both sides to find a good landing spot. "

– Don Sweeney

David Pastrnak had a breakout season in the final year of his ELC, scoring 70 PTS after earning himself a permanent spot on the top line with Marchand and Bergeron. It took a few months before both sides agreed to this treaty in September (on the day training camp opened), accepting a deal very similar to Johnny Gaudreau and Filip Forsberg a year earlier. Pastrnak was fairly compensated for his production at the time, but what he failed to foresee was his ascension to an even higher level.

Year one he jumped up to 80 PTS in 82 GP (plus 20 PTS in 12 playoff games). Year two; 81 PTS in 66 GP (a 101-point pace, plus 19 more PTS in the playoffs). By year three he scored 48 goals and 95 PTS in 70 GP, finding himself in the Hart trophy conversation. Had this just been a 3-year deal, the Czech winger could have commanded Mitch Marner money on the open market. But he’s also part of a team that’s contending for a championship, nearly winning it all in 2019, on a roster with several other elite players taking discounts.

Pastrnak may be happy taking less money now to give the team a better chance to win. He’ll be UFA at age 27, at which time he should be able to hit a home run. It’s worth mentioning that he could have been UFA after 4 years (7 years of service), but forfeited 2 UFA seasons. Oh well, some guys care more about winning than money.

 

4) Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay:


    Age: 29
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $7.9M
    Signing GM: Steve Yzerman, July 1st, 2016

"We want to keep a competitive group and have a competitive team. For us moving forward, it's going to be important for everyone to buy into that, obviously.”

– Victor Hedman

Steve Yzerman shrewdly decided to get Victor Hedman’s autograph on a long-term extension on the very first day it was allowed to be signed. One year later he was nominated for the Norris trophy after scoring 72 PTS. Had the Swede hit the UFA market that summer, he could have written himself a blank cheque from any GM in the league. Both he and Stamkos talked to the media about how important it was for their star players to take less money to help the team stay together.

$7.9M is a lot of money to classify as an underpaid, but that’s exactly what happened, as Hedman won the Norris in year one as the best defenseman in the NHL. The Lightning lean heavily on this guy to play big minutes in all situations, carrying a tremendous burden at below market price, but hey, at least there’s no state tax. Hedman carved his name into the history books by winning the Conn Smythe trophy when Tampa won the Stanley Cup in 2020. He has moved himself into the elite tier of all-time great defensemen.

 

5) Sean Couturier, Philly:


    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $4.3M
    Signing GM: Ron Hextall, July 28, 2015

"I'm really looking forward to come in camp and try to take another step forward. I'm not going to change as a player, as a person. I'm going to be the same type of player, just definitely try to produce a little bit more offensively."

– Sean Couturier

Sean Couturier had never surpassed 39 PTS in a season over a 4-year career when this agreement was reached. This was nearly a carbon copy of the Wayne Simmonds contract from 3 years earlier, but for marginally more money. Craig Smith in Nashville had also inked a similar pact 8 days before Sean.

Ron Hextall gambled that the kid had a bright future, offering him 6-years at about $600K more than a 39-point center should make in annual salary. The offer had to be significantly more than what Sean and his agent were expecting, as they were willing to forfeit 2 years of unrestricted free agency.

In year one the center scored 34 PTS in 66 GP. By year two he scored 76 PTS in 82 GP and was a contender for the Selke trophy (an award he would win in 2020). Couturier has been among the biggest bargains in the league over the past 3 seasons.

 

6) Jaccob Slavin, Florida:


    Age: 26
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $5.3M
    Signing GM: Ron Francis, July 12, 2017

"The moves that Ron has made in the past couple months have been unbelievable, and it gets me really excited to be a part of this future in Raleigh for the next eight seasons"

– Jaccob Slavin

You have to give Ron Francis credit for having the foresight to lock Jaccob Slavin into this 7-year extension after playing just 2 seasons in the league, a full year before his ELC was set to expire. Slavin has evolved into one of the NHL’s best 2-way defensemen who plays with remarkable efficiency at both ends of the ice. Ron evidently got zero credit from ownership for this shrewd move, as he was fired before the deal even started.

In year one Slavin was among the most important pieces of the team that advanced to the Conference finals, helping Ron’s replacement Don Waddell get a General Manager of the year nomination. Hardly seems fair. One thing is for certain, this move will cost Jaccob millions in potential future earnings, as he could have become an unrestricted free agent in 3 years. He sold 4 UFA seasons for at least $3M less than he could command on the open market. Sure, he won’t be hurting for money anytime soon, but he certainly missed the opportunity to maximize career earnings as he’ll be 31 years old when this expires. 

 

7) Shea Theodore, Vegas:


    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $5.2M
    Signing GM: George McPhee, Sep 25, 2018 

Shea Theodore broke out into a legit top pairing defenseman and power play quarterback in year two when he scored at over a 50-point pace before potting nearly a point-per-game in the playoffs. That’s a nice chunk of change, enough that he would never need to work another day in his life when it expires, but he did leave a pile of money on the table and should have bet on himself. Granted, a big share of the money left on the table would have been taken by the Taxman had he signed this in Anaheim.

 

8) Mark Scheifele, Winnipeg:


    Age: 27
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $6.1M
    Signing GM: Kevin Cheveldayoff, July 8, 2016

“I wanted an eight-year deal. That was in my mind from the start. Obviously you never know what’s on the other end. They’re realistically in the driver’s seat… and when they said eight years I was very excited about the prospect of being a Winnipeg Jet for eight years.”

– Mark Scheifele

It’s strange to say that a kid who signed for $49M missed an opportunity to maximize career earnings. He’s going to bank enough money to take care of himself and his extended family for life, but I wouldn’t have recommended taking 8 years and becoming an unrestricted free agent at age 31. Had he gone 5-6 years, there would have been room to hit another home run. Scheifele was seeking an 8-year term and received it at a slightly higher price than Aleksander Barkov accepted 7 months earlier.

From the Jets perspective, this is a perfect contract, buying UFA years at a big discount. $6.1M AAV may not have felt like a bargain when it was first signed, but he scored 82 PTS as a 23-year-old in year one and was in the league MVP conversation by year two. At 8 years they will get to keep him at a relatively cheap price right through his prime. That’s an A+, among the 25 best contracts signed in the whole salary cap era.


 

9) Aleksander Barkov, Florida:


    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $5.9M
    Signing GM: Dale Tallon, Jan 1, 2016

“He is a highly-skilled, intelligent and dynamic young center that plays an exceptional game at both ends of the ice. Sasha is an important part of the foundation of our future and a cornerstone player who is continuing to develop into one of the league’s elite centers.”

– Dale Tallon

Aleksander Barkov scored 36 PTS in 71 GP during his sophomore season, and had already started to show rapid improvement when he signed this extension in January 2016. It was very similar to the Ryan Nugent-Hopkins deal 2 years earlier, but less salary and term. Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, and Sean Monahan signed similar contracts in the months that followed Barkov (but for marginally more money and term).

It’s very likely that they all used each other as benchmarks, then all became glorious bargains. Aleks suffered injury problems in year one, but officially broke out by year two, morphing into a point per game center who is also considered to be one of the best defensive pivots in the league. He should eventually win a Selke trophy and has been on annual my top 15 bargains in the NHL list for the last 3 years.

 

10) Brayden Point, Tampa:


    Age: 24
    Remaining Term: 2 years
    Cap Hit: $6.75M
    Signing GM: Julien Brisebois, Sep 23, 2019

"He is the consummate professional with an unwavering commitment to team success, growing as a player and improving every day.”

– Julien Brisebois

Brayden Point was a member of the great RFA class of 2019 after scoring 41 goals and 92 PTS in the final year of his ELC. Before that summer, it was virtually inconceivable for a 90-point player go unsigned into September, with that level of offensive ability being in extraordinarily high demand, but this year we had two of them. Mitch Marner signed for $10.9M AAV ten days earlier, and many had projected Point as a more valuable commodity because centers earn more on average than wingers.

In theory the Marner ticket should have set the market for Point, instead the Tampa pivot came in $4M beneath the Marner price. Many Leafs fans cried foul. When you look at after-tax income, the pay gap between these two stars shrinks substantially. Brayden came in far under even the most conservative predictions of his upcoming salary, as the Lightning once again exploited their competitive advantage over a division rival, freeing up more payroll for Tampa to spend on the rest of its roster.

While Marner and the Leafs failed to qualify for the playoffs, Point helped carry the Lightning to a Stanley Cup championship, scoring 30 PTS in 20 GP, also receiving strong MVP consideration.

 

11) Jonathan Huberdeau, Florida:


    Age: 27
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $5.9M
    Signing GM: Dale Tallon, Sep 6, 2016

“Jonathan is a highly talented and dynamic player who is another important piece of our team’s young core”

– Dale Tallon

Jonathan Huberdeau signed for the exact same term and money as Barkov nine months later. The winger had recently completed a 59-point season, the exact same total as Barkov (though Jon played 10 more games). This fits the mold of Perry-Getzlaf or Toews-Kane, albeit without the championship pedigree.

As it turned out, Huberdeau (like Barkov) had not even begun to scratch the surface of his potential. In year one at age 24, he scored 69 PTS. Year three he scored 92 PTS. This offensive explosion coincided with a similar boom in Barkov’s numbers as the two played on the same line.

It’s once again hard to claim that Jonathan left money on the table when he got paid $35M, but he sold 4 years of unrestricted free agency for an obscene discount. He could have been UFA after the 2019 season before his 27th birthday (having played 7 years in the NHL). Granted, with no state tax, his take-home pay is higher than others who might have made more money.

 

12) Jake Guentzel, Pittsburgh:


    Age: 26
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $6M
    Signing GM: Jim Rutherford, Dec 27, 2018

"Jake established himself as an impact player for our team from the beginning, especially during 2017 Stanley Cup playoffs”

– Jim Rutherford

Jake Guentzel very quickly established himself as a key member of the Penguins forward arsenal, scoring 13 goals and 21 PTS during their run to the 2017 Stanley Cup as a rookie. The young winger scored another 21 PTS in 12 GP during the 2018 playoffs, and the following season had scored 33 PTS in 36 GP when he signed this extension in December.

As year one of this treaty was underway, Jake was lighting the league on fire with 43 PTS in 39 GP amidst a series of serious team injures before falling victim to the injury bug himself. He might not be putting up numbers like this if he didn’t play on a team loaded with this much talent, but there would unquestionably be substantial demand for his services if he reached the open market.

The future is anything but certain, however I’m very confident that he will remain a bargain for the foreseeable future.

 


13) Bo Horvat, Vancouver:


    Age: 25
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $5.5M
    Signing GM: Jim Benning, Sep 8, 2017

“I love Vancouver, the city and the organization. This is where I wanted to be for a long period of time and a six-year deal was attractive to me."

– Bo Horvat

Bo Horvat wrapped up his entry level contract by scoring 20 goals and 52 PTS in 2017. It took a few months before Jim Benning and the young center could reach an agreement, with Bo eventually accepting a similar deal to what Mika Zibanejad had signed 6 weeks earlier, but for marginally more money.

It didn’t take long for Bo to become a bargain, after an injury cost him nearly 20 games in year one. This kid has a bright future in the NHL at the critical center position. In year three he was pacing for the best season of his career while playing mostly with Tanner Pearson and Loui Eriksson. Better linemates could push Bo’s ceiling even higher.

The back half of this deal looks to be an extreme bargain. Horvat was spectacular in the Canucks upset of the St. Louis Blues in 2020.

 

14) Seth Jones, Columbus:


    Age: 24
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $5.4M
    Signing GM: Jarmo Kekalainen, June 29, 2016

“At 21, Seth is just beginning to tap into his potential as a player. He has everything you look for in a defenseman and is going to be a very important player and leader on our team for many years.”

– Jarmo Kekalainen

Seth Jones went directly to the NHL after being selected 4th overall in the 2013 draft by the Nashville Predators. The Preds already had a loaded blueline and needed help down the middle so they traded Jones to Columbus for Ryan Johansen. Six months later Jarmo locked up Seth for the next 6-years. 

We’ve seen several young defensemen sign some version of this deal, most recently Ivan Provorov, (albeit at a higher price) but contract tracing can date this all the way back to Andrej Meszaros back in 2009. Seth’s ascent into elite offensive defenseman began shortly after the ink dried, climaxing with 16 goals and 57 PTS in year two, finishing 4th in Norris trophy voting. In year four, Jones set a record for the most ice time logged in a single game.

 

 15) Mika Zibanejad, New York:

    Age: 27 
    Remaining Term: 2 years 
    Cap Hit: $5.3M 
    Signing GM: Jeff Gorton, July 25, 2017 


"I'm super happy a deal got done. I'm super happy to be staying in New York for the next five years and I'm really, really looking forward to next season."

– Mika Zibanejad

Mika Zibanejad was seeking a 1-year contract for $5.35M in the summer of 2017 after scoring above a 50-point pace for back-to-back seasons. It was a fair price for his services, but certainly was not a discount. Jeff Gorton countered that the price was fair if it was attached to more term, and the two sides agreed on a 5-year ticket that sold 2 years of unrestricted free agency. This was very similar to the deal the Rangers signed with Derick Brassard a few years earlier, who ironically enough was the main chip heading to Ottawa in the Zibanejad trade. More recently Jonathan Drouin and Brayden Schenn had agreed to similar terms.

Year one of this accord was decidedly mediocre, but by the 2nd season Mika evolved into a higher-level point producer, potting 30 goals and 74 PTS. By year three when Artemi Panarin came to town, Zibanejad scored at a 108-point pace while missing some time due to injury (and he didn’t even play with Artemi 5v5). He has become criminally underpaid. 



Honorable Mentions: (in no particular order)


  • Kyle Connor, WPG, 6 more yrs at $7.1M:
  • Travis Konecny, PHI, 5 yrs at $5.5M:
  • Connor Hellebuyck, WPG, 4 yrs at $6.1M:
  • Dylan Larkin, DET, 3 yrs at $6.1M:
  • Sebastien Aho, CAR, 4 yrs at $8.4M:
  • Charlie McAvoy, BOS, 2 yrs at $4.9M:
  • Zach Werenski, CBJ, 2 yrs at $5M:
  • Matthew Tkachuk, CGY, 2 yrs at $7M:
  • Mattias Ekholm, NSH, 3 yrs at $3.75M:
  • John Klingberg, DAL, 2 yrs at $4.25M:
  • Teuvo Teravainen, CAR, 4 yrs at $5.4M:
  • Morgan Rielly, TOR, 2 yrs at $5M:
  • Ivan Provorov, PHI, 5 yrs at $6.75M:
  • Anthony DeAngelo, NYR, 2 yrs at $4.8M:
  • Thomas Chabot, OTT, 8 yrs at $8M:
  • John Gaudreau, CGY, 2 yrs at $6.7M:
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