Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Worst NHL Contracts 2020

What are the 15 worst contracts in the NHL in 2020? This year the construction of my list was much more democratic, assisted by a series of worst contract Twitter polls to help me determine the final order. The final rankings were not precisely determined by the poll results, but were certainly heavily influenced. Last year’s winner was Milan Lucic, who returns again, but has dropped a few slots down the list. This mostly ignores the potential for cap recapture, as it’s not too hard for General Managers to circumvent. It’s mostly just for those foolish enough to trade away their penalty inducing contracts. The “Marian Hossa Rule” has changed who we look at those outlawed, formerly legal, punative deals. 

The following summaries were clipped from my new book The Definitive Guide to Salary Cap Mismanagement, which is now available in the Amazon store. There are also 30+ dishonorable mentions and disasters waiting to happen at the bottom of this page, most of which can also be found in the book.




1) Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose:


    Age: 33
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $7M
    Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1st 2017

“We’re thrilled we could get this extension done early and ensure one of the League’s top defensemen will remain in San Jose for the long term.”

– Doug Wilson

During the Covid crisis of 2020, I posted a series of Twitter polls in a “bracket challenge” to determine the worst contract in the NHL, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic emerged victorious. After more than a decade of Doug Wilson convincing his best players to take either a discount or shorter term to stay in beautiful San Jose, Brent Burns long-term extension opened the floodgates. Doug was unable to get either a discount or a shorter term with Marc, who would have been reaching the UFA market at age 31.

Over the first 2 years of this treaty, Vlasic has become a profound liability, for a few different reasons. The team’s salary cap situation has eroded their depth, forcing the coach to use the aging veteran far more than he should be. Edouard’s personal offensive numbers have plunged, but more alarmingly, most of his teammates were demonstrably worse when Marc was on the ice (both in shot and expected goal differential). The Sharks went from Stanley Cup contender to one of the worst teams in the league in just a few months, and Ed bears significant personal responsibility.


2) Brent Seabrook, Chicago


    Age: 35
    Remaining Term: 4 years
    Cap Hit: $6.87M
    Signing GM: Stan Bowman, Sep 26, 2015 
      

“You can’t just go pick up a Brent Seabrook. If you don’t have someone like that, to be the performer that he is on the ice as well as the leader he is off the ice, if you don’t have Brent, you’re looking for the exact same player. We know what he’s all about”

– Stan Bowman

Brent Seabrook was a warrior who helped the Blackhawks win 3 Stanley Cups. It’s defensible why Stan Bowman felt this reward was necessary, but giving an 8-year deal to a 31-year-old with all those hard miles on his odometer is bad asset management. Stan should have made Seabrook’s previous contract his last and gone full-term on that treaty instead of 5-years.

Brent was a decent player in season one when he scored 39 PTS, but the depreciation kicked in the following campaign. By year three his ice time dropped under 20 minutes per game and he started becoming a healthy scratch. In year four he suffered a serious injury to his hip, requiring multiple surgeries. The best-case scenario for the organization is for Brent to finish the rest of the contract on “Robidas Island”. The bad news is that it seems like the old vet is determined to resume his career, and is dedicated to making a full recovery.


3) Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida:


    Age: 32
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $10M
    Signing GM: Dale Talon, July 1st 2019

“Sergei is an elite starting goaltender who has consistently proven to be one of the best in the NHL. Adding a world-class goalie with Sergei’s abilities and experience will give us a solid foundation in net and the confidence to win every night as we look toward this next era of Panthers hockey in South Florida.”

– Dale Tallon

It’s rare for a two-time Vezina trophy winner to reach the UFA market, so even if there were warning signs of decline with Sergei Bobrovsky, there was inevitably going to be a bidding war for his services when he reached the open market at age 30. It would be interesting to know if Dale Tallon forgot to ask for the “no state tax” discount, or if he did and $10M actually was the discount. Was another GM actually offering Bob much, much more?

Needless to say, year one was cataclysmic, as Sergei struggled to reach .900 on his SV% as the league’s 2nd highest paid goalie. The outlook in Florida’s goal went from optimistic to catastrophic within a few months of the ink drying. It does pain me to put Bob on this list, as the two of us have won several fantasy hockey championships together (the first while he was still in a Flyers jersey). I’m President of the Sergei Bobrovsky fan club and cannot truly have an unbiased opinion devoid of sentimental attachment.

That being said, he also ruined 2 of my fantasy teams in 2020, so maybe I’m just being petty and vengeful. Then I ran a series of Twitter polls to determine the worst contract in the league, and Bob finished in the top 4 out of 32. So whether I’m right or wrong that this is terrible, at least Twitter agrees with this assessment.


4) Jeff Skinner, Buffalo:


    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 7 years
    Cap Hit: $9M
    Signing GM: Jason Botterill, June 7, 2019

“I like it here, I love it here. I like the guys. I like the city and I had a great time.”

– Jeff Skinner

The Buffalo Sabres traded a promising prospect and a pile of draft picks to acquire Jeff Skinner from the Carolina Hurricanes with 1 year remaining on his previous contract. Upon arrival in Buffalo he was placed on a line with Jack Eichel and thrived, scoring 40 goals, a career best (he also scored 37 goals in 2017). 

The red flag from Skinner’s Carolina career was a lack of consistency. Good seasons would often be followed by bad ones, like 31 PTS in 77 GP in 2015. Jason Botterill didn’t want his prized acquisition to be merely a rental, and if he wanted to retain the winger, the GM had to make the offer sufficiently large to dissuade him from testing the open market.

Botterill did not even get a honeymoon period before this investment turned sour, as year one was a disaster. Skinner struggled with consistency and was moved off the Eichel line, which predictably had a devastating effect on his output. Botterill was fired before Jeff had a chance to redeem himself. It’s entirely possible that Skinner will bounce back in the future and prove me wrong, but in the meantime, this has to be considered a terrible contract.

 

5) Milan Lucic, Calgary:


    Age: 32
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6M
    Signing GM: Peter Chiarelli, July 1, 2016

 

"I think the Oilers have been missing a little bit of attitude and a little bit of swagger over the last couple of years, and that's something that I bring to a team as well.”

– Milan Lucic

Milan Lucic came to Edmonton as a tough guy with offensive upside who could potentially play with McDavid while also protecting him out on the ice. Milan did flash some of that upside when he potted 50 PTS in year one, but that success proved fleeting, dropping to 34 PTS in year two, 20 PTS in year three. The flaw in the logic behind his acquisition is that he’s far too slow to play with Connor, or even Draisaitl for that matter.

From a production standpoint, Milan peaked at age 22 and began to decline by age 25. By age 29 he was washed up and nothing better than a bottom 6 banger who is being paid like a top 6 guy who can score. Milan was the winner loser of my 2019 Worst NHL Contract Award. Someway somehow, Ken Holland managed to convince the Flames to take this deal off their hands in exchange for James Neal. The Flames were responding to criticism that they lacked toughness in the playoffs, and over-compensated.

 

6) Andrew Ladd, Islanders:


    Age: 35
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $5.5M
    Signing GM: Garth Snow, July 1, 2016

“At the end of the day it's not all about money for me. It's about being in a good place for my family and being on a team that's going to contend every year. You'd be crazy not to want to be a part of this group and this organization. We'll see what happens.”

– Andrew Ladd

Garth Snow gave a 7-year contract to a 30-year-old player coming off a 46-point season. This turned sour right out of the gate, with Andrew Ladd dropping down to 31 PTS in 78 GP in year one. He’s a good character guy, but it’s never good to see that large of a point decline happen right away, especially at that age when an athlete is less likely to bounce back.

Andrew scored 29 PTS in year two and was in the AHL by year three. This is the greatest contract Kevin Cheveldayoff never signed. Ladd was part of the infamous UFA class of 2016, one of the most astounding collection of calamities in the last 15 years.


7) Jamie Benn, Dallas:


    Age: 31
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $9.6M
    Signing GM: Jim Nill, July 15, 2016

"He's one of the top players in the NHL, one of the top forwards. He's in the prime of his career, he's the leader of our team, and he's a great person on top of it, so we're very fortunate here in Dallas."

– Jim Nill

 

“They are f*cking horse-sh*t! I don’t know how else to put it.”

-Jim Lites

Jamie Benn signed this extension right after scoring 89 PTS, and a year after winning the Art Ross trophy. This deal would make Jamie the 5th highest paid player in the league, so management could be forgiven if they expected him to continue to perform like one of the best players in the league.

Benn hit an ominous milestone when his previous deal expired, reaching exactly 1000 regular season hits. His body endured some hard miles over the course of his journey, and wasn’t able to maintain the elite level scoring that his pay grade and ownership expected. Benn would only produce one more season as a top tier scorer, with 36 goals and 79 PTS in year one, then dropped down to 53 PTS in year two and 39 PTS in year three.

There is an alternate universe where the Stars won the 2020 Stanley Cup with Jamie Benn winning the Conn Smythe. There’s another version of me somewhere in the multi-verse who is deleting Benn from the worst list and adding him to the Dallas best contracts. Does that one great playoff run make this whole investment worthwhile? If there was a parade, then perhaps. Instead it’s just more miles on that body with a lot of money still owed.

 

8) Justin Faulk, St. Louis:


    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 7 years
    Cap Hit: $6.5M
    Signing GM: Doug Armstrong, Sept 24, 2019

This might be the move that guaranteed Alex Pietrangelo’s departure from St. Louis, so if the former captain has some success early in Vegas and Faulk continues his downward trend, this could feel worse in retrospect. Justin only scored at a 19-point pace in 2020 after inking the early extension, so had Armstrong waited until the end of the season to sign this, he could have shaved a few million off the price tag.


9) Carey Price, Montreal:


    Age: 33
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $10.5M
    Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, July 2nd 2017

“It's a great place for me. I have enough experience to deal with anything that being a goaltender for the Canadiens can throw at me. I never thought about putting on another uniform. I just thought it'd be too weird, I guess."

– Carey Price

Carey Price signed this early extension prior to the 2017/18 season then proceeded to post the worst save percentage of his professional career. Had Marc Bergevin waited a little bit longer, the price would have dropped considerably (in theory). Instead Carey became the highest paid goaltender in the league. The closest comparable is Henrik Lundqvist, who signed a similar deal 4 years earlier, that eventually turned sour in New York. This would also set the market for Sergei Bobrovsky 2 years later.

Price did rebound in year one of this deal, with 15 goals saved above average. His play came crashing back down to earth in year two, and the Habs are now sitting on a potentially huge liability. The goalie union may have celebrated when Price and Bobrovsky signed their massive contracts over the age of the 30, but the disasters that are unfolding before our eyes will undoubtedly decrease the likelihood of any goalie cashing in like this again. Price does have the talent to prove me wrong for ranking him this high, but I’m willing to roll the dice that this is going to trend on downward slope, even if he’s still good right now.

 

10) Ryan Johansen, Nashville:


    Age: 28
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $8M
    Signing GM: David Poile, July 28, 2017

"This was kind of the goal in planning for the offseason. We've got our whole core signed up, a lot of guys for a lot of years. Hopefully, we've chosen correctly. I believe we've chosen correctly.”

– David Poile

David Poile paid a steep price to acquire Ryan Johansen from the Columbus Blue Jackets, giving up Seth Jones. Johansen had a contentious negotiation on his previous contract, which was a likely contributing factor on why the Blue Jackets wanted to part ways. Since Columbus had rushed him to the NHL as a teenager, Ryan had the opportunity to become an unrestricted free agent before his 27th birthday as a 7-year vet, giving Poile only 1 more year of team control after his current deal expired. That put the GM under pressure to get Ryan’s autograph on a long-term treaty.

Johansen’s first season in Nashville was a modest success with 61 PTS and a stat line that should have been priced in the $6M range. Poile had to offer a “sweetner” to lure the young center away from a potential July 1st bonanza. The first 2 years got a passing grade, despite being overpaid. Where this started to slip into a tailspin was year three when his stat line declined to 36 PTS in 68 GP. In May 2020 I ran a series of Twitter polls asking what’s the worst contract in the NHL, and Johansen finished 14th.  He’s still young enough to reverse the trend and bounce back, I’m just not betting on it happening.

 

11) Erik Karlsson, San Jose:


    Age: 30
    Remaining Term: 7 years
    Cap Hit: $11.5M
    Signing GM: Doug Wilson, June 17, 2019

"I'm excited to continue the chase for the ultimate prize: the Stanley Cup"

- Erik Karlsson

Doug Wilson paid a hefty price to acquire Erik Karlsson from the Ottawa Senators, hoping it would be enough to push the team over the top in their pursuit of a championship. They fell short of their goal and Doug didn’t want to let the 2-time Norris Trophy winner depart in free agency. Erik was 2 weeks away from hitting the open market and was fully aware that somebody was going to meet his asking price. It’s likely that Doug’s initial bid was much smaller than $11.5M per season, but Karlsson had all the leverage. He could just say “this is what I’m going to get, take it or leave it”.

The risk here is that Erik had accumulated a concerning injury history and is at an elevated risk of deterioration. It may be premature of me to pre-emptively declare this a failure, but I’m confident that it’s going to turn sour after Erik’s 30th birthday. Future versions of this list may rank Karlsson much, much higher. At this moment in time, it has not officially broken bad, but received a substantial number of votes in my worst contract Twitter poll bracket challenge.


12) Drew Doughty, Los Angeles:


    Age: 31
    Remaining Term: 7 years
    Cap Hit: $11M
    Signing GM: Rob Blake, July 1st 2018

"Drew Doughty is one of the best defencemen in the world, and we are obviously excited to have reached this point in the process in which he has committed to the Kings long-term"

– Rob Blake

If salary were not an issue and there was no cap, there are 31 General Managers who would love to have Drew Doughty on their roster for the next 7 years (sorry, I borrowed that line from my Jonathan Toews synopsis). Drew is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, and we’ve seen defensemen in that mold have tremendous careers into their late 30s (Scott Neidermayer, Nick Lidstrom, Zdeno Chara, etc). My decision to pre-emptively declare this to be a terrible contract after only a single season could look foolish in a few years.

We simply haven’t seen this kind of term or money spent on a defenseman over the age of 28 since Brian Campbell in 2008. Most of Drew’s recent comparables secured salaries in the $6M to $8M range. Doughty pushed the bar higher than we’ve seen in a long time, and Erik Karlsson would use that to extract similar terms from San Jose one year later.

Had this been an 8-year $8M AAV deal like John Carlson, it would not be on this list. Doughty reached a career high 60 PTS in 2018 before inking this ticket, but dropped back down to the 40-point range in the 2 years following. But now that he’s past his 30th birthday, there is enormous risk on the horizon.

 

13) Matt Duchene, Nashville:


    Age: 29
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $8M
    Signing GM: David Poile, July 1st, 2019

 

"We made no secret, I think, that we were trying to get him. He made no secret that he had an affinity for the city. Having said that, just to put everything on balance here, he did have other offers and he did visit other cities. I would think probably when you talk to him that he'd tell you this was the only place he wanted to play. Maybe that's me wanting to think that, but it's still part of a negotiation."

– David Poile

Matt Duchene was among the big prizes of the 2019 free agent class at age 28 after tying his career best 70 PTS in Ottawa, landing in Nashville on July 1st. Duchene spoke to the media as if Nashville was the only place that he wanted to play, so Poile had to come out and remind everyone that Matt indeed had other offers and David wasn’t just bidding against himself. Duchene got an almost identical contract as Logan Couture one year earlier, and certainly garnered a fair price contrasted with his comparables, about what you’d expect to pay for a 70-point, 19-minute center.

Spoiler alert: that’s not what they got. Duchene’s ice time dipped down to 16.9 minutes, and his scoring to 42 PTS in 66 GP. There’s still a lot of runway remaining to land this plane, so it may be a little prematurely pessimistic of me to include him on the list. He could very well prove me wrong, I’m just not betting on it.

 

14) Zach Parise, Minnesota:


    Age: 36
    Remaining Term: 5 years (2 until the back-dive starts)
    Cap Hit: $7.5M
    Signing GM: Chuck Fletcher, July 4, 2011

 

"These signings will resonate well with our fans, with our players and with everybody associated with the team"

– Chuck Fletcher

Zach Parise experienced a production decline from 82 PTS in 2010, down to 69 PTS in 2012 before becoming an unrestricted free agent.  That did not cool demand for his services on the open market, as the New Jersey Devils advanced to the Stanley Cup finals in Parise’s last season with the team, thanks in large part to his outstanding play. The threat of another labour dispute and work stoppage hung over the league that summer, as Gary Bettman made it clear that the back-diving contract loophole would be closed in the next CBA. Parise and Ryan Suter were the hottest commodities available, and they teamed up to take their talents to Minnesota. Chuck Fletcher was willing to do whatever it took to land the duo.

Zach finished first place in my 2018 worst contract rankings, but he managed to bounce back. Parise’s biggest problem has been staying healthy, and has been productive in stretches, scoring at a 61-point pace over the first 8 seasons. The output sunk to its lowest point in year six at age 33 with 24 PTS in 42 GP, but he managed to bounce back with 28 goals and 61 PTS in 2019. This deal was supposed to come with a massive cap recapture penalty if Parise retired early when his actual salary drops in 2022, but courtesy of Marian Hossa, that shouldn’t be a problem for the Wild unless they decide to trade the contract. Zach experienced a resurrection when Fiala was added to the roster, and this might finish decently if that chemistry continues until Zach gets his own career ending skin rash in 2 years.

 

15) Kyle Okposo, Buffalo:


    Age: 32
    Remaining Term: 3 years
    Cap Hit: $6M
    Signing GM: Tim Murray, July 1, 2016

“What sold me first and foremost, and I’ve been saying it all day, is the chance to win the Stanley Cup, and I think we have a lot of pieces in place that can help us achieve that goal”

– Kyle Okposo

While Kyle Okposo did score an impressive 64 PTS in 79 GP before reaching the UFA Market at age 28, his scoring rate and average ice time had been in decline for 2 years. That production depreciation continued upon arrival in Buffalo, who landed him with this monstrous offer. Kyle was lured to the Sabres because he believed they had a Stanley Cup roster. The first 4 years has produced zero playoff games for the Sabres.

Kyle was on his way to having a decent first year with the Sabres before a concussion and a bad reaction to medication prematurely ended his season. It has been a downhill journey from there, with Okposo scoring just 19 PTS in 52 GP in 2020.


Dishonorable Mentions:

 (in no particular order)


· Karl Alzner, Montreal, 2 more yrs @ $4.6M,

· Frans Nielsen, Detroit, 2 more yrs @ $5.3M,

· PK Subban, New Jersey, 2 more yrs @ $9M:

· Loui Eriksson, Canucks, 2 more yrs @ $6M,

· Martin Jones, San Jose, 4 more yrs @ $5.75M:

· Mike Matheson, Pittsburgh, 6 more yrs @ $4.8M:

· James Neal, Edmonton, 3 more yrs @ $5.8M,

· Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles, 4 more yrs @ $10M:

· James Van Riemsdyk, 3 more yrs @ $7M:

· Viktor Rask, Minnesota, 2 more yrs @ $4M:

· Michael Ferland, Vancouver, 3 more yrs @ $3.5M:

· David Backes, Ducks, 1 more yr @ $6M:

· Thomas Hickey, Islanders, 2 more yrs @ $2.5M: 

· Brendan Smith, Rangers, 1 more yr @ $4.3M:

· T.J Oshie, Washington, 5 more yrs @ $5.75M:

· Nikita Zaitsev, Ottawa, 4 more yrs @ $4.5M:

· Jonathan Toews, Chicago, 3 more yrs @ $10.5M:

· Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh, 3 more yrs @ $5.3M:

 

I’ve Got My Eye On You:

A few of these guys have already begun to decline, others are entering the crosshairs of Father Time. It may not happen this year, but everyone below is a future contender for Worst contracts list.

(in no particular order)


· Anders Lee, Islanders, 6 more yrs @ $7M:

· Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota, 7 more yrs @ $7.6M:

· Tyler Myers, Vancouver, 4 more yrs @ $6M:

· Tyler Seguin, Dallas, 7 more yrs @ $9.85M:

· Logan Couture, San Jose, 7 more yrs @ $8M:

· Oliver Ekman Larsson, Arizona, 7 more yrs @ $8.25M:

· Kevin Hayes, Philadelphia, 6 more yrs @ $7.1M:

· Mats Zuccarelo, Minnesota, 4 more yrs @ $6M:

· Chris Kreider, Rangers, 7 more yrs @ $6.5M:

· Adam Henrique, Anaheim, 4 more yrs @ $4.8M:

· Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas, 7 more yrs @ $8.8M:

· Nicklas Backstrom, Washington, 5 more yrs @ $9.2M: 

· Brent Burns, San Jose, 5 more yrs @ $8M:

· Evander Kane, San Jose, 5 more yrs @ $7M:

· Keith Yandle, Florida, 3 more yrs @ $6.4M:

· Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg, 3 more yrs @ $8.25M:

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