Saturday, December 5, 2020

Calgary Flames Best Contracts (2005-2020)

The following is a condensed preview of the Calgary Flames chapter of my new book, Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World. If you purchase the book, you will receive a much more in-depth analysis of all these contracts, including year-by-year statistics, a customized “basket of comparables”, and memorable quotes from players, GMs, and coaches. There is a chapter about how to calculate Expected Free Agent Value, which is used to determine precisely how much any given player was over/under paid each season; breaking down the econometrics of each deal in addition to discussing how each treaty came to pass.

Below is just a tiny sample of what’s in the book, with a few sentences clipped from the summaries. These are the graphics that appear in the book.


Entry level contracts not included. 

Calgary Flames

 

 

The Flames started the new decade by missing the playoffs 7 times in the next 9 years, half of which came under the direction of Jay Feaster and Brian Burke. Part of that demise was due to the withering and eventual retirement of their Vezina goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff, who was mostly responsible for any success Darryl Sutter had as Flames GM.The team’s fortunes started to improve after Brad Treliving took the top job, but just hasn’t been able to find a dependable #1 goaltender, a void that has mostly stayed empty since Kipper departed. We’ll see how Jacob Markstrom fares.

 



Upon returning in 2005/06, Miikka Kiprusoff was lights out and won the Vezina trophy, cementing his position as one of the league’s best netminders (also received a Hart trophy nomination). Despite diminishing returns after that lofty peak, Miikka banked $35M at age 31 when this expired.

 


Brad Treliving was absolutely taking an enormous risk by locking Mark Giordano into a 6-year term set to start after his 32nd birthday. That often tends to be a recipe for disaster. With risk, came reward. Giordano soundly defeated Father Time by registering an incredible 74-point Norris trophy winning campaign at age 34.

 


John Hockey had a disappointing year one, but was back among the NHL’s scoring elite by year two with 84 PTS, and by year three 99 PTS. The bad news has come at playoff time when the physicality gets turned up and the number of penalty calls shrinks. Yet it is still unquestionably great value.

 


Mark Giordano’s first victory against the aging curve came at age 29 when his scoring rate doubled, growing up to 21 goals and 56 PTS in the final year at age 31. Any money that Mark might have left on the table was reimbursed by Brad Treliving in the next negotiation, when Gio banked a cool $40M. Little did we know Gio’s best was still ahead of him.

 


Sean Monahan hasn’t been able to reach the same peaks as his linemate. If anything, you could argue that a fair chunk of his production is the direct result of residual exposure to Gaudreau, whom he has spent the most time playing with bey far since 2016/17, with a 60% GF share with Johnny and 41% without (at all strengths). Monahan scores at a significantly lower rate when they are apart.

 


While his scoring output remained consistently high, Dougie Hamilton's usage in Calgary dropped by 1.5 minutes per game, as he was deployed mostly as a power play and offensive specialist. Hamilton was never truly appreciated as a Flames defenseman, which led to him being traded to Carolina half way through this term for Lindholm and Hanifin. Hamilton dropped below the 40-point threshold in his first year with the Hurricanes, but he rebounded incredibly in year five and was on his way to crushing his career best, pacing for 70 PTS, when he broke his leg.

 


While many players were setting new career highs in 2005/06, Jarome Iginla had a decidedly disappointing season, scoring just 67 PTS for that big price tag. But Iggy popped off in year two, potting an impressive 94 PTS in 70 GP. He would then set a new career high in year three with 50 goals and 98 PTS (while scoring rates were normalizing elsewhere in the league). This was by no means a bargain, but still worth every penny.

 


Mark Giordano left North America to play in the KHL after being unable to reach an agreement with Calgary as a restricted free agent. Holding out for the season didn’t exactly pay off financially, as he received low compensation upon his return, but did get 3 years of job security on a one-way deal. In year two of this contract Giordano stepped up to the next level playing over 20 minutes per game and scoring 30 PTS for under $1M AAV. In the final season, Gio potted 43 PTS in 82 GP for 15 cents on the dollar.

 


Immediately upon his arrival in Calgary, Elias Lindholm was placed on a line with Gaudreau and Monahan, on his way to crushing his previous career high by 33 PTS. A big part of that success was due to his linemates and deployment, evidenced by his drop in production in year two when he was moved off the top line for part of the season. Even if his production declines further, he’s still going to be worth the price.

 


There was considerable risk signing a player this old, a long serving power forward with many collisions on his odometer, this deep into his dirty thirties. The risk paid off, as Iginla managed to age gracefully, topping 85 PTS twice and maintaining a 76-point pace over these 5 seasons.

 


Six months after being traded to Calgary, Darryl Sutter extended Kristian Huselius at a low price tag for 2 years and the Swedish winger responded by crushing his previous career high by 28 PTS. Kristian finished the contract by scoring 143 PTS in 162 GP (72-point pace), then left Calgary in free agency to take a big pay raise in Columbus, but that transaction was not nearly as successful.

 


Matt Tkachuk provides a unique blend of physicality and scoring ability as one of the most effective super-pests in the league. The team would have been better off if they could have locked him in to more years at that price (like the Jets did with Kyle Connor), but the terms of this deal was set by the market and Matt wanted to bet on himself.

 


TJ Brodie would benefit financially from choosing a bridge deal, as his production and usage would continue to grow. Over 2 years he potted 72 PTS from the blueline, averaging 24.6 minutes per game, which was a steal at that price point. He would bank $23M on his next ticket.

 


By year two of his Flames tenure, Daymond Langkow set a new personal best with 77 PTS at age 29. By the end of these 3 years, he accumulated 201 PTS (68-point pace), with an additional 15 PTS in 20 playoff games, earning himself a big pay raise at age 31, which you can read about on Calgary’s worst contracts list.

 


Dion Phaneuf would see his offensive contribution start to decline, hitting a new low in year two, and had scored 22 PTS in 56 GP in year three before being traded to Toronto for a package of mediocre players. This contract produced 437 GP, 212 PTS (40-point pace), 1127 Shots, and 1111 Hits in the regular season. Sure, it was light on playoff games but still provided good value.

 


No comments:

Post a Comment