The following is a condensed preview of the Winnipeg Jets chapter of my new book, Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World. If you purchase the book, you will receive a much more in-depth analysis of all these contracts, including year-by-year statistics, a customized “basket of comparables”, and memorable quotes from players, GMs, and coaches. There is a chapter about how to calculate Expected Free Agent Value, which is used to determine precisely how much any given player was over/under paid each season; breaking down the econometrics of each deal in addition to discussing how each treaty came to pass.
Below is just a tiny sample of what’s in the book, with a few sentences clipped from the summaries. These are the graphics that appear in the book.
The last 15 years of hockey in Winnipeg has been a slow evolution towards building a contender. In the first 12 years after the salary cap was introduced, they missed the playoffs 10 times. The Ilya Kovalchuk era was a dark time in Manitoba, and fortunes did not start to improve until the alliance of Kevin Cheveldayoff and Paul Maurice was formed. It’s no secret that Winnipeg is widely regarded by players as an undesirable market place with bad WIFI and even worse weather. Attracting free agents to town can be difficult, as you won’t see any UFA signings on their best contracts list that were not already Jets before agreeing to extensions.
From the Jets perspective, this is a perfect contract, buying UFA years from Scheifele at a big discount. $6.1M AAV may not have felt like a bargain when it was first signed, but he scored 82 PTS as a 23-year-old in year one and was in the league MVP conversation by year two. At 8 years they will get to keep him at a relatively cheap price right through his prime.
Dustin Byfuglien evolved into one of the most dominating defensemen in the league, both physically and on the scoresheet, remaining consistently productive throughout. In total he scored 235 PTS in 337 GP (57 PTS per 82 GP) with 1077 Shots and 830 Hits. That’s tremendous from a defenseman, and a bargain at the price they were paying.
Year one saw Hellebuyck’s performance dip, but he rebounded mightily in 2020 when he led the league in goals saved above average to win the Vezina trophy, also receiving consideration for the Hart. He could have hit a monster home run had he reached the UFA market (well maybe not with Covid and everything, but if the pandemic never happened).
Ilya Kovalchuk was a
monster in an Atlanta Thrashers Winnipeg Jets jersey, as this investment
was a stunning success, surpassing 50 goals twice and 40 goals thrice during
those 5 years in Atlanta Winnipeg, scoring 48 goals and 91 PTS per 82
GP.
Connor Hellebuyck delivered a giant leap forward with 44 Wins, 11 Losses, 2.36 GAA, .924 SV%, and a Vezina Trophy nomination. Connor bet on himself and hit the jackpot, also setting a record for the most wins in a season by an American goaltender. As great of a bargain as this was, it could have been even better had the team rolled the dice with a little more term.
Over 5 years, Andrew Ladd produced 258 PTS in 367 GP (58-point pace), with 980 shots and 695 hits. The team never did win a playoff series under this tenure. The Jets shipped him off at the trade deadline in the final year for Marko Dano and a 1st round pick.
Rumours of possible offer sheets swirled, with Kyle Connor claiming offers had been presented to him. He was able to leverage that into a long-term investment, that Cheveldayoff had to be more than happy to make. The winger started slowly in year one but eventually caught fire, scoring 38 goals and 73 PTS in 71 GP.
Blake Wheeler immediately showed a significant improvement, and scored 68 PTS per 82 GP at a bargain price during his first full season in Winnipeg for an average adjusted cap hit of $3.2M. That’s a win. Blake’s salary was more than doubled on his next contract, but that would prove to be a bargain too.
Bryan Little made a nice recovery in year one, posting 48 PTS, after a significant boost in ice time, both killing penalties and playing power play as a 2-way center. He raised his production even higher in year three, scoring at a 55-point pace in the lockout shortened season, and consistently sustained that level of production until he was 29-years-old. He doubled his salary on his next contract.
Josh Morrissey stepped into a big role for the Jets as a 23-year-old and scored at a 43-point pace while averaging 22.4 minutes of ice time. Missing 23 games due to injury did limit his point total, but was still a bargain despite that lost time. He quickly became the Jets best defenseman after the team lost Trouba, Myers, and Byfuglien before year two.
Injuries did limit Trouba’s production, but he was still a bargain despite that lost time, producing 41 PTS per 82 GP when healthy, logging 23.5 minutes in ice time per game. He produced all those points with limited power play time, scoring impressively at even strength. A big part of his value that you don’t see on his stat sheet was play in the defensive zone and killing penalties.
No player in the salary cap era scored more goals as a teenager, not even Sidney Crosby or Alex Ovechkin. Laine was still a unicorn even if he only potted 30 tucks in his 3rd year. Patty bounced back nicely in year one, scoring at a 76-point pace before Covid shut down the season. He found himself at the center of trade rumors after the bubble playoffs wrapped, and may not finish this deal in Winnipeg.
Neal Pionk exceeded all expectations scoring at a 52-point pace in year one, as the fan anger over the Trouba trade subsided. In retrospect, it was a good trade (I’ll credit myself as being one of the early defenders of that deal). Trouba was a certainty to leave after one year.
Nikolaj Ehlers had a dip in production in year one as he was slowed by injuries, but bounced back very nicely in year two. The winger has scored at nearly a 60-point over the first 2 years of the deal and was one of the Jets best players in a qualifying elimination loss to the Calgary Flames in 2020.
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