Monday, January 4, 2021

Fantasy Hockey Sleepers 2021

With 2020 behind us, it’s time to start getting excited about 2021. With fantasy hockey kicking off in a little over one week, here are 20 players that I’m excited about for the upcoming season. Whether or not a player is deemed a “sleeper” is relative to their average draft position on Yahoo. Over the last two weeks, I have completed 9 mock drafts on Yahoo, and have made some observations about who is being drafted too late. Who are the bargains that are still available in the later rounds? 

Here's a few.

 

Standard Sized Leagues:

 

1. Jason Zucker, W, PIT, (29% owned, 167 ADP): People were rushing to their waiver wires to add Jason Zucker when he was traded to Pittsburgh last season and placed on a line with Sidney Crosby. His stock was on the rise when Covid ended the season, scoring 12 PTS in 15 GP for the Penguins.  People seem to have forgotten, as his early average draft position was 167, sitting at 29% owned on Jan 4th. Once he starts putting up PTS on a Penguins scoring line, people will be rushing to add him yet again.

 

2. Anthony Mantha, W, DET, (60% owned, 159 ADP): Mantha's scoring rate has been rising the last 2 years and the winger was off to a fabulous start last year before an injury cut his season short. Given that he’s had ample time to heal his wounds, Mantha’s average draft position is far too low at 159. There is tremendous upside and you can draft him to your bench in the late rounds. The line of Larkin, Mantha, and Bertuzzi has been dominant in stretches and I’m buying stock if the unit is re-united for 2021.

 

3. Nikolaj Ehlers, W, WPG, (65% owned, 160 ADP): Ehlers has been among the most added players early in this fantasy pre-season, as the market is correcting for his low Yahoo xRank. He’s often going undrafted, then people are plucking him off waivers when they realize he’s available. Ehlers was one of the Jets best forwards in the August bubble, and has some added upside if the Jets can establish a legit 2nd scoring line with the addition of Stastny. There is reason for optimism.

 

4. Blake Coleman, W, TB, (55% owned, 154 ADP): Blake Coleman’s stock has been on the rise since the injury to Kucherov, as his ownership has grown from 26% on Dec 22 to 55% two weeks later. People seem to be anticipating that Coleman could be promoted to one of the top scoring lines, which would give his fantasy value a substantial boost. He’s someone you may want to stash on your bench and see how Tampa’s lines flush out to start the season, but droppable if he gets stuck on the 3rd line.

 

5. Kirill Kaprizov, W, MIN, (66% owned, 142 ADP): Yahoo’s initial draft rankings (which heavily influences ADP) had Kaprizov and Kevin Fiala substantially higher, until they dropped them significantly lower last week. Over a 3-week period, Kaprizov’s ADP has dropped by almost 3 rounds. Suddenly you can get both Fiala and Kaprizov on your bench in standard sized leagues. They might be worth more if playing together (which the coach seems reluctant to do), but there’s enough upside that I’m happy to stash them on my bench to see how quickly they jump off the starting blocks.

 

6. Darnell Nurse, D, EDM, (72% owned, 137 ADP): Nurse has been a fantasy favorite of mine in standard leagues since hits became a category, where I’ll often rely on my blueline to fill my bangers quota. News that Oscar Klefbom will miss the entire season means that the Oilers will be forced to lean heavily on Nurse, even if Tyson Barrie is the primary power play option. On Dec 22 his ADP was 143 and that has moved to 137 on Jan 3, despite Yahoo ranking him 163. People are jumping on him 2 rounds before his rank dictates.

 

7. Matt Dumba, D, MIN, (64% owned, 142 ADP): There is nothing in the analytics that makes me believe Dumba’s production will be much better than last season, unless you think his shooting % will rebound to his unsustainably high 2019 number. He’s on this sleeper list because Yahoo dropped his xRank to 200, leaving Dumba available in the late rounds of standard sized drafts. After the shift, he started finding his way onto my mock draft rosters as a 4th or 5th defenseman. In my first 12-team draft on Sunday, I grabbed Dumba in the 14th round at pick 162.

 

8. Thatcher Demko, G, VAN, (63% owned, 155 ADP): Demko flashed some incredible upside in the playoffs in a small sample, and while I'm not expecting that level of outstanding play to be replicated over a full season, it's a smart gamble where he's being taken in drafts. In almost all of my mock drafts, I’m getting one of Demko, Sorokin, or Gibson as my 3rd goaltender. There might be more safety in Gibson, but if I want to take a swing at max upside, Demko is my guy.

 

9. Ilya Sorokin, G, NYI, (52% owned, 169 ADP): There are no guarantees that Ilya Sorokin will be instantly good in the NHL after defecting from Russia over the summer, and Varlamov is a threat to wrangle a majority share of the Islanders starts. But I’m very much interested in the upside of the Barry Trotz system, and can stash him on my bench late in the draft to see how good he is out of the starting blocks. You can also snag Varlamov in the later rounds, if you’d like to secure the Trotz tandem, minimizing the pain if Sorokin is a bust.

 

10. John Gibson, G, ANA, (68% owned, 154 ADP): I’m not necessarily bullish on the Anaheim Mighty Ducks, and am not necessarily thrilled at the idea of investing in their goaltending. But as I’ve been plowing through all these mocks, Gibson tends to be available near the end of drafts, and has been landing on some of my rosters. Demko might have a higher ceiling, but Gibson probably has a higher floor. At the very least, he’ll get a ton of starts.

 

Deep Leagues: under 40% owned

 

1. Denis Gurianov, W, DAL, (33% owned): Denis Gurianov already had a fan club in the analytics community before his explosive breakout in the 2020 Covid Cup. Prior to that outstanding playoff performance, he was being constrained by limited deployment. But it will be hard to keep him off the ice going forward. With Seguin starting the season on IR, there is vacancy in the Stars top 6, and Gurianov is a prime candidate to shoulder some of that responsibility.

 

2. Anthony Beauvillier, W, NYI, (14% owned): It would appear as though Beauvillier’s strong playoff performance has already been forgotten, as he’s going undrafted in many leagues. The winger is still just 23 years old and theoretically should continue improving for the next few seasons. 2019/20 saw him score at nearly a 50-point pace, which should put his future ceiling in the 60-point range. Great upside considering Yahoo has him ranked at 235.

 

3. Robert Thomas, C/W , STL, (13% owned): The injury to Tarasenko has created an opening on the top line with Schenn and Schwartz, and Robert Thomas is the early favorite to step into that void. For whatever reason, Yahoo has him ranked 505, leaving him undrafted in most leagues. The market has been slowly correcting on the waiver wire. If Thomas indeed debuts on the top line, he’ll climb to 50% owned within a few weeks.

 

4. Anthony Duclair, W, FLA, (15% owned): The last season for Anthony Duclair contained both an incredible hot streak, followed by an extended slump. He proved in Ottawa that he can indeed shoot and score, which made it a surprise that the Sens cut him loose. Duclair has arrived in Florida, and news broke today that the Panthers plan to use him on the top line with Barkov and Huberdeau at the start of training camp. If he can maintain that deployment, Duclair's stock price will skyrocket once the season starts.

 

5. Kevin Labanc, W, SJ, (8% owned): While I’m not convinced the Sharks will be bouncing back after last year’s abysmal performance, I’m comfortable saying that Labanc deserves to be ranked higher than 268 by Yahoo. My own projection does not have Labanc returning to the 56-point pace of 2019, but higher than last year’s disappointment (39 PTS per 82 GP). Let’s not forget, the winger was over 60% owned early last season, so the growth potential is there if you want to roll the dice in the late rounds.

 

6. Kaapo Kakko, W, NYR, (27% owned): Early reports out of the New York Rangers camp is that Kaapo Kakko is expected to start the season (or at least start camp) on a line with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome. Last year’s #2 overall pick followed a similar rookie fate as Jack Hughes, getting highly drafted in Fantasy, overrated at too young of an age, then widely dropped in 1-year standard sized leagues. He started over 80% owned, and ended under 40%. Having a disappointing 18-year-old campaign doesn’t mean he’ll always disappoint. Certainly if this deployment sticks, Kakko has massive upside going forward.

 

7. John Marino, D, PIT, (11% owned): Marino scored at nearly a 40-point pace in his first season with the Penguins and is currently ranked 363 by Yahoo (which is absurdly low for that level of point production). I’m expecting a slight drop in scoring due to an unusually high shooting percentage, but there is still some good value here in the later rounds of deep drafts. The Pens liked what they saw enough to recently bestow him with a 6-year $26M extension.

 

8. Filip Hronek, D, DET, (30% owned): Hronek scored at a 40-point pace over the last 2 seasons and is currently ranked 246 by Yahoo. The average rank of a 40-point D-man is 176, and you can get Hronek 70 picks later. If you’re sensitive to +/- (which I’m not), that’s the big downside. Otherwise expect Hronek to log a ton of ice, also on the power play. As with all Red Wings, +/- is a concern if that’s a category that’s important to you. Since I always punt that cat, I’m happy to buy the PTS at a discounted price.

 

9. Matt Grzelcyk, D, BOS, (17% owned): The absence of Torey Krug will leave a big hole in the Bruins offensive deployment, which should help Grzelcyk procure more power play time. McAvoy could be the biggest beneficiary, but they could also need Charlie more often in defensive situations. If Grzelcyk earns a spot on that top power play, people will be rushing to their waiver wires to add him in even the shallowest standard sized leagues.

 

10. Cam Talbot, G, MIN, (39% owned): There are not many safe bets in net under 40% owned, at least among bona-fide starters. There are many back-up goalies to choose from in this range, with Talbot easily being the best that you can draft after the 200th pick. Minnesota has a strong defense, and Cam could thrive in that position. He’s been among the most added goalies since drafting began, as the market is slowly correcting from that low rank. As of right now, I have drafted 1 team, and Cam is on my roster. 

 

Deepest Sleepers: (10% owned or less)

  • Liam Foudy
  • Marcus Johansson
  • Dylan Cozens
  • Luke Kunin
  • Damon Severson
  • Cam Fowler
  • Noah Hanifin
  • Gabe Vilardi
  • Grigori Denisenko
  • Conor Garland

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