Monday, January 4, 2021

Fantasy Hockey Busts 2021

While much uncertainty about the upcoming NHL season still lingers in our new Covid world, fantasy hockey will still be plowing forward. With all you've had to worry about this past year, don't burden yourself with busts on draft day. Avoid unnecessary risk and anxiety. Always be drafting the players who are sliding too late instead of jumping on guys too early. I've been closely monitoring average draft position on Yahoo since drafting began in December and have a few names to avoid based on acquisition cost. Any one of these guys could be a steal on the waiver wire, I'm just avoiding them where they're being drafted.

 

1. Patrice Bergeron, C, BOS, (96% owned, ADP 41): Both Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak had offseason surgery, the 2 players that are directly responsible for Bergeron posting elite level scoring output. While Marchand is expected back in mid-January, the most dangerous weapon on that line is Pastrnak, who could miss half the season. Patrice has done a fine job eluding Father Time, but at age 35, the clock is ticking. With an ADP of 41, Bergeron won't be on any of my teams this season. He’s a Hall of Fame player, but this can’t last forever.

 

2. Brad Marchand, W, BOS, (99% owned, ADP 24): This is not my first time anticipating/prognosticating the demise of Brad Marchand, as I’ve been burned before by prematurely proclaiming the passing of his expiration date. You’d think I’d have learned my lesson, but given his offseason hernia surgery and the fact that he’ll be turning 33 by the end of the regular season, this may finally be the year that Father Time licks Brad’s face. While his scoring rate has held steady above a 100-point pace since his 30th birthday, I’m betting that trend is near its end. He'll probably still be a good player, I'm just not buying at an ADP of 24. The compressed schedule will be harder on the older bodies. Let someone else buy that risk.

 

3. Logan Couture, C, SJ, (82% owned, ADP 117): Logan Couture is ranked 76th by the rankings people at Yahoo, yet his ADP is 40 slots later at 117. Ergo: many drafters are seeing him queued up as the next best player to draft, but are passing on him for another 3 rounds. In my own 12-team Roto draft, Couture went undrafted in 192 picks. He sat untouched at the top of everyone’s queue for more than half the draft. That reflects the weakening market to buy time shares of the Sharks (and also that nobody in my league auto-drafted without pre-ranking). Couture's scoring dipped to 62 PTS per 82 GP last season, and he’ll turn 32 in March. 


4. Gabriel Landeskog, W, COL, (98% owned, ADP 36): On average Landeskog is being drafted in the 3rd round, but be warned, he’s not currently projected to start the season on the top line with MacKinnon, which is the only scenario where his ADP makes any sense. If he finds himself on the Kadri line for most if not all the season, then you will seriously regret making him a 3rd round pick. In the past, I've won Fantasy championships with this winger on my roster, but had panic attacks anytime they flirted with line demotion.  He's must own when playing with MacKinnon and Rantanen, that's just not a guaranteed combination. Landeskog only played 63% of his 5v5 minutes with MacKinnon in the playoffs.


5. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, WSH, (93% owned, ADP 64): The Russian center experienced a drop in production last season at age 27 (after testing positive for cocaine), and has now breached the age of diminishing returns. He might still have appeared on this list had the positive drug test never occurred, but the fact that he did only strengthens the case. We've got every right to be concerned that his output could nose-dive. His PTS per 82 GP the last three seasons has been 86, 78, and 68. It’s clear which direction the trend line is pointing, and he turns 29 in May. In a keeper league, I'd be selling my Kuznetsov stock before the bottom falls out.

 

6. Jake Muzzin, D, TOR, (54% owned, ADP 157): Muzzin would not be 54% owned right now in Yahoo if he played for any other team in the NHL. My presumption is that 90% of the people who drafted Jake are Leaf fans and he would be under 20% owned if he played in Arizona. Last we saw Muzzin; he was being carried off the ice on a stretcher and he'll be turning 32 years old during the upcoming season. There are enough red flags that I'll be avoiding this guy in all my drafts. Yahoo actually has his xRank set all the way down at 225, forcing Leaf fans to scroll down the list to find their guy.


7. Alexis Lafreniere, W, NYR, (82% owned, ADP 132): I have no reason to doubt that Alexis Lafreniere will have a fabulous NHL career, and I’m not just including him on this list as a bitter Red Wings fan upset that they rigged the draft lottery. Currently the #1 overall pick in the 2020 draft is 82% owned in Yahoo, similar to Jack Hughes last season. Alexis is only projected to play on the 3rd line in New York, at least to start the season. If you’re in a keeper league and playing the long game, don’t worry. But if you’re in a 1-year re-draft league, there is a high probability of disappointment on the horizon. Both Hughes and Kakko entered last season over 80% owned and finished under 40%. We may see history repeat itself.

 

8. Marc-Andre Fleury, G, VEG, (89% owned, 78 ADP): It's entirely plausible that Marc-Andre Fleury is still a good goalie who could produce quality numbers this season, but the looming time share with Robin Lehner is concerning for fantasy owners given where Fleury is being taken in drafts. That ADP was sitting at 61 on Dec 23, and has fallen to 78 by Jan 3. There's a decent chance that he'll be traded at some point during the season, after which his value will theoretically rise. If his average draft position was north of 100, I might even be pumping him as a sleeper. But at an ADP of 78, that's too rich for my comfort. If he's still on the board in the 10th round or later, don't be shy to roll the dice.


9. Brayden Point, C, TB, (99% owned, ADP 18): While my faith in Brayden Point's talent and future have not diminished, there are legit concerns about what his productivity might look like in the absence of linemate Nikita Kucherov. Last season 5 on 5, Point had an expected GF% of 57% when he was on the ice with Kuch, but 47% when apart. Two weeks ago, his average draft position on Yahoo was 13 and it has already slipped to 18. If he falls to the 3rd or 4th round, I’ve got no problem with picking Point, just be careful not to jump too soon.


10. Ryan O'Reilly, C, STL, (94% owned, ADP 63): Warning: Ryan O'Reilly will be turning 30 mid-way through the NHL season. That alone is not the reason he's here, but rather because his high average draft position on Yahoo, where he's been climbing up the ranks. On Dec 22 his ADP was 70 and it has shifted to 63 after they moved his rank to 50th (he came in at 116 on my own personal ranks). He's now a 5th or 6th round pick in a 12-team league (ADP between Scheifele and Couturier at center). He should only be drafted that high in a league that counts face-off wins (most leagues don't), losing value in leagues that count hits. Did I mention his 30th birthday is coming? Don't be the one in your league who jumps on this guy too soon.

 

Almost Made It:

 

·         Anton Khudobin

·         Brent Burns

·         Erik Karlsson

·         Nicklas Backstrom

·         John Carlson

·         Alex Radulov

·         Blake Wheeler

·         Alex Pietrangelo

·         Patric Hornqvist

·         T.J Oshie

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