Wednesday, February 3, 2021

Jan 2021 NHL Fantasy Market Report

Once again in 2021, I'll be tracking NHL player ownership in fantasy month by month on Yahoo. At the end of every month I'll be posting a Fantasy Market Report outlining the top risers and decliners, plus monthly All-Star and Not-Star teams.

All the numbers listed below are entirely for the month of January (unless stated otherwise).


Best Value:

 

January All-Star Team: Best players for the month by position. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below. 

C) Connor McDavid, Edm: 11 GP, 22 PTS

W) Leon Draisaitl, Edm: 11 GP, 22 PTS
W) Mitch Marner, Tor: 10 GP, 14 PTS
D) Quinn Hughes, Van: 11 GP, 11 PTS
D) Cale Makar, Col: 10 GP 11 PTS
G) Philip Grubauer, Col: 8 GP, 6 wins, .930 SV% and 1.75 GAA

Best Value Under 50% Owned (Jan 13th) All-Star Team: Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below.

C) Joel Eriksson Ek, Min: 10 GP, 9 PTS

W) James van Riemsdyk, Phi: 10 GP, 13 PTS
W) Joe Pavelski, Dal: 6 GP, 10 PTS 
D) Samuel Girard, Col: 10 GP, 9 PTS
D) Jakob Chychrun, Ari: 8 GP, 6 PTS
G) Kevin Lankinen, Chi: 6 GP, .937 SV% and 1.97 GAA

 

Top Ownership Risers:

Which NHL players had the biggest jump in fantasy hockey ownership for the month of January 2021?

1) Vitek Vanecek, Wsh, +57%: Ilya Samsonov’s Covid absence has vaulted Vanecek into the primary starting role on a really good team. His play has been good enough to win games, but not outstanding. We’ll see what happens when Samsonov returns.

2) Jakob Chychrun, Ari, +50%: Chychrun started the season on the top power play unit, scoring 6 PTS in 8 GP to see his ownership jump from 16% to 66%. Also delivering solid peripheral stats.


 

3) Jordan Kyrou, STL, +46%: Kyrou has stepped into the Schenn-Schwartz line and has been outstanding thus far, finally delivering on the promise we've been hearing about for the last few years.


 

4) Andrew Copp, Wpg, +46%: Andrew Copp is in unchartered ownership waters, peaking at 3% owned in 2020. We’ll see how the lines shake out when Dubois clears quarantine. I'm still somewhat skeptical that he can sustain anywhere near this level of production for the full season.


 

5) Justin Faulk, Stl, +43%: Faulk’s rise is not entirely points related, but rather in 9 GP he posted 24 shots and 34 hits with a +11. The Blues are giving him a ton of ice time, and he’s racking up the peripheral stats. Many prefer to use D in standard leagues to pad their hit totals.

6) Joel Eriksson Ek, Min, +42%: It’s been a nice start for the young center, scoring 9 PTS in 10 GP. If he can manage to get Fiala or Kaprizov onto his wing indefinitely, that ceiling can be pushed even higher.

7) Alexander Romanov, Mtl, +41%: The young Russian has slowed down after a nice start, but he’s been able to sustain his ownership levels by delivering good peripheral stats. He is being widely dropped in early February after getting moved to the taxi squad and healthy scratched.

8) Ty Smith, NJD, +36%: The ice time has been low, but that hasn’t stopped him from scoring 8 PTS in 9 GP thanks to the power play. The kid has a bright future. The Devils are enduring a Covid outbreak, so Smith is starting to get dropped in some leagues.

9) Tyler Motte, Van, +36%: Motte’s stock price is at all time high thanks to 45 hits in 11 GP, with 5 goals. 


 

10) Conor Garland, Ari, +34%: Garland might be the most gifted offensive player on the Coyotes, scoring 7 PTS in 8 GP with 32 shots.

 

Worst Value:


January Not-Star Team: Most Disappointing Players Over 60% Owned Jan 13, (not including injured players, and ownership listed below is from Jan 31). Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.

F) Mika Zibanejad, NYR, (96% owned): 8 GP, 2 PTS

F) Evgeni Malkin, Pit, (96% owned): 9 GP, 4 PTS
F) Max Domi, Cbi, (46% owned): 10 GP, 3 PTS
D) Seth Jones, Cbj, (90% owned): 10 GP, 1 PT
D) Anthony DeAngelo, NYR, (53% owned): 6 GP, 1 PT
G) Tristan Jarry, Pit, (82% owned): 6 GP, .859 SV% and 3.92 GAA

 

January Deep League Disappointment Team: Biggest January busts between 10% and 50% ownership on Jan 13. Ownership listed below is from Jan 31. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.

F) Jeff Skinner, Buf, (22% owned): 10 GP, 1 PT

F) Nikita Gusev, NJD, (10% owned): 9 GP, 1 PT
F) Rickard Rakell, Ana, (27% owned): 10 GP, 3 PTS
D) Kevin Shattenkirk, Ana, (30% owned): 10 GP, 1 PT
D) John Marino, Pit, (7% owned): 9 GP, 1 PT
G) Matt Murray, Ott, (31% owned): 7 GP, .849 SV% and 4.82 GAA

Top Ownership Decliners: 

What NHL players have seen their ownership drop the most in the month of January? Players who only dropped due to injury will not be included, focusing on the healthy players who dropped significantly.

1) Anthony DeAngelo, NYR, -40%: Tony DeAngelo is an immensely talented offensive player who also happens to be nuts. The Rangers have announced that he’s played his last game with the team, and he went unclaimed on waivers. He may be done in the NHL.

2) Alexis Lafreniere, NYR, -29%: It’s not uncommon for people to get too excited too soon for the first overall pick in the NHL draft to make an immediate impact. This happened last year with Jack Hughes. Lafreniere will eventually become an elite scorer, but it may take a year to acclimate to the big leagues.

3) Evgenii Dadonov, Ott, -28%: There might be a reason that no teams offered Dadonov the type of contract that most people believed he’d receive. Playing with Barkov and Huberdeau in Florida may have inflated his numbers, which were already declining before he became UFA at age 31.


 

4) Ryan Graves, Col, -27%: It has been said that Graves is not the same player in 2021, and whether or not he has actually declined physically, getting bumped from the Makar pairing would predictably make him worse.


 

5) Ryan Strome, NYR, -25%: Strome is off to a slow start with 3 PTS in his first 8 GP while still playing with Artemi Panarin. Eventually the scoring pace should start to pick up, but getting bumped from that top power play unit will hurt.


 

6) Max Domi, Cbj, -25%: The start of Domi’s Columbus career has been a bust. He has been demoted to the 3rd line with Foligno and Grigorenko, though could get power play exposure to Laine. He’s young enough that he can recover, but I’d rather wait until it actually happens.

7) Matt Duchene, Nsh, -19%: Matt Duchene is on pace to have his worst season as a pro at age 30. Poile can’t be feeling good about those 5 remaining years at $8M. This might be top 5 on my 2021 Worst Contracts list.

8) Mike Hoffman, Stl, -19%: Hoffman started the season 94% owned as people were excited about the new fit in St. Louis. His stock has been falling while scoring 4 PTS in 8 GP at age 31. He won’t be hitting a jackpot this summer either.

9) Jared Spurgeon, Min, -18%: Spurgeon just started a 7-year contract at a cap hit of $7.6M at age 31. He started the season at 54% owned, dropping down to 36% as his PTS per 82 GP has been cut in half from 2020.

10) Jeff Skinner, Buf, -18%: Anyone betting that Jeff Skinner would bounce back and recapture his magic from 2018/19 was sorely mistaken. If he ever gets permanently re-united with Eichel, maybe there’s hope, but I need to see it to believe it.


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