The Big Short
Welcome to my January 2021 NHL gambling report. Since day one of the 2019/20 season, I’ve been placing pretend bets in a spreadsheet on every NHL game based on the morning odds in Las Vegas (most often I’m using the BetMGM odds, but sometimes I’ll use William Hill). In one “portfolio”, I’ve been placing $100 bets on each game, while in another I’m placing larger bets on the games that I like the most (either $250, $500, or $1000 bets), sometimes betting on both the money line and the puck line in the same game. I do force myself to bet on every game to provide myself with a complete data set in at least one portfolio, and at least one bet on every game involving every team. The downside is that it can force me to pick a side in a game that I don’t like either option. The data helps inform future decisions.
Spoiler alert,
sportsbooks do not offer gamblers “actuarily fair” odds. They can’t, otherwise
they wouldn’t make any money and what’s the point of being in business? Over
the long-term, you are playing a rigged game with a hidden tax on your
winnings. It’s possible to run a positive balance over the long-term if you
understand the rate of return of the different asset classes and bet each
team wisely. The rate of return of every moneyline of
+100 or higher in 2019/20 was $1.03 per $1 bet. The rate of return on every
moneyline of -100 or less was $0.92 per $1 bet. Below charts each category
(including pucklines) chronologically over the entire season, if you bet $100
on every outcome consistently.
If you bet $100 on every moneyline favorite last season, you would have lost nearly $8,000. That’s betting on the team EXPECTED to win. If you bet the favorites -1.5 on the puckline every game in 2019/20, you would have lost even more, nearly $10,000. Sportsbooks know that risk averse gamblers are more likely to bet favorites. If their gambling account starts running a large negative balance, they could start chasing their losses with increasingly larger bets on the teams most likely to win, and then chasing higher returns on the puckline. The payouts on the bets are adjusted accordingly. But in order to shrink the payout on the fave, they need to increase the payout on underdog.
Fast forward to 2021, and my own gambling portfolios finished the month of January with a negative balance. I have not been using my data from last season to do predictive modelling for 2021, because the scheduling parameters have changed in this pandemic world we’re living in, with most games played in front of zero fans, and all teams being subjected to a compressed schedule.
Every bet that I’m making is purely instinctual. I did not attempt to build any algorithms coming into the 2021 season for the reasons outlined above. I have been trying to react to emerging trends, but sometimes that feels like playing whack-a-mole.
For a breakdown of the betting categories and where my money was won and lost, see the table below.
Thus far my best outcomes have been attained betting Home teams. There is theoretically supposed to be a diminished home ice advantage with no fans in the buildings, but that doesn’t seem to be playing out statistically. It may normalize over the course of the season, as some of the weaker teams start to catch-up and players grow accustomed to pandemic road life. Players are being forced to isolate in hotel rooms on the road, and are playing multiple games over multiple days in the same city. If you bet road teams to lose in the 2nd and 3rd games in a particular city, you would have run a very large surplus in January. I’m expecting teams will get better on the road, adjusting to the unique circumstances of travelling in a pandemic. Until that starts to happen, I'll continue investing in home teams.
The chart below outlines the January results of underdogs and favorites on the moneyline, as well as pucklines if you bet $100 on every outcome consistently. Also included are the sum of my portfolios, which did not perform well for the month. Though it did start to stabilize after I realized that I was burning money on road teams. (I'm back in black in early February)
For January, favorites on the moneyline was the only category above that turned a profit. A similar trend was observed last season before it flipped and more value fell on the dogs. The returns on favorites -1.5 on the puckline have already started to drop. I'm becoming more receptive to home dogs +1.5.
Where did my money go? These are not necessarily recommendations for who you should bet on or against going forward, just summarizing my own successes and failures. If you read the team summaries, you’ll get a more detailed description of how those sums were attained and what’s replicable in future games.
My Best Teams To Bet On:
2) Philadelphia Flyers, (+$1,158)
3) Vancouver Canucks, (+1,089) (thanks to Ottawa)
4) Florida Panthers, (+$1,065)
5) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$881)
2) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$1,323)
3) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$1,315)
4) San Jose Sharks, (+$713)
5) Buffalo Sabres, (+$544)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
The team-by-team gambling power rankings are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to win or lose. They are my own personal power rankings, reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games. These aren’t necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few instances of good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries for a deeper understanding of the replicability. If you are going to be betting on hockey in the near future, it may help you to read about my own personal success and failure over the month. For an unbiased look, I will include an overall rank of account balances if you bet each team to win or lose every game and every puckline, providing monolithic results of betting both sides consistently team-by-team.
LR = League Rank
Last Year Rank: 25
Team Win-Loss Record: 1-8
Bet On: 5 (-$10)
Bet Against: 4 ($2,826)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $1,067 (LR: 1)
In the Senators first
game of the season against Toronto, I made a big bet on the Sens to win +165 as
the home team, good value for a home dog. All that money would get paid back to
the hypothetical bookie, as I bet them to win their next few home games (small sums).
It was starting to become clear they were not very good. Then they took a road
trip to Vancouver, and that’s when my “Big Short” began, betting heavy on
Ottawa to lose. The Canucks had been struggling to start, then blew out the
Sens. I haven’t looked back.
Last Year Rank: 30
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-6
Bet On: 5 ($1,711)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$274 (LR: 22)
Bet Against: 6 (-$113)
The Edmonton Oilers
were a below .500 team in January, but I still managed to pick the correct
outcome in 7 of 11 games. I lost $1,100 betting the Leafs to beat them on Jan
20, then won $970 on them hamering Ottawa. I’ve bet against the Oilers more
often than winning, but have enjoyed success when picking their victories. But
be warned, these results may not be replicable or sustainable, as they haven’t
been a good team to bet on overall (ranking 22). This is a bit of a wild card
team and I’m expecting to pay back some of those profits in February.
Last Year Rank: 16
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-4
Bet On: 1 ($74)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$768 (LR: 28)
Bet Against: 8 ($1,389)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $594 (LR: 2)
We are nearing the
end of the Crosby-Malkin Dynasty, and I shorted the Penguins almost exclusively
in January, making a nice profit despite their winning record (5-4). The caveat
is that they are (1-4) on the road, which is where I have been posting my gains
betting their games. I’ve lost $1300 betting against the Penguins at home, but
have won $2,615 when betting against them on the road (both moneyline and
puckline). The Penguins have traditionally been a public team that people like
betting to win, so there can be value on the other side of that bet. Hence why
I’ve been betting the other side in 8 of 9 games. Sid and Gino are getting old.
Last Year Rank: 29
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-7
Bet On: 0 ($0)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$251 (LR: 21)
Bet Against: 8 ($1,323)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: -$101 (LR: 15)
Speaking of “the Big Short”, all my bets on Chicago Blackhawk games have been on their opponent to win. My winnings were up big early, but some of that was paid back when they embarrassed my Red Wings. Goaltender Kevin Lankinen has been screwing up my pucklines. I’ve lost $959 when betting against Chicago at home, but running a comfortable surplus when picking against them on the road. My streak of consecutive bets against will be broken next time they play the Red Wings, as Lankinen is pulling the team within grasp of maybe almost being a little bit decent.
Overall, betting
against Chicago on the moneyline has paid out $1.11 per dollar wagered, but opponent
pucklines are only paying out $0.78.
Last Year Rank: 20
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-1
Bet On: 2 ($1,065)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $174 (LR: 8)
Bet Against: 4 ($225)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: -$531 (LR: 27)
I’m running a surplus
gambling on Panthers games, despite betting on their opponent 4 of 6 games
(where the team is 5-1). I had the Red Wings +1.5 for a pair of games in
Detroit, and hit both bets in 3-2 Florida wins. In their first game of the
season, I hit a jackpot on the Panthers puckline -1.5 against Chicago at +155.
I had success betting Panthers games last year when Bobrovsky was playing,
partially because of my long history with Bob in Fantasy hockey. I can navigate
the highs and lows of Bobrovsky like Sean Connery piloting the Red October through
red route 1.
6) Vancouver Canucks, ($885):
Last Year Rank: 13
Team Win-Loss Record: 6-5
Bet On: 6 ($1,089)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $119 (LR: 9)
Bet Against: 5 (-$204)
I had been running a positive balance on both sides of my Canucks bets until I lost $600 when they upset the Jets at the end of the month. My profits were large for their 3 game homestand against Ottawa. This team has looked both tremendous and terrible at different points over the last 2 weeks. It may be difficult to correctly pick their outcomes going forward. Overall, betting against the Canucks on the puckline when their opponent is favored has been the most profitable wager thus far. Montreal owns the Canucks.
UPDATE: The first 2 Canucks
games in Feb, I banked nearly $1800 betting on Montreal.
Last Year Rank: 6
Team Win-Loss Record: 7-3
Bet On: 6 ($1,158)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $818 (LR: 2)
Bet Against: 4 (-$315)
Betting on the
Philadelphia Flyers to win has been among my most successful ventures as a
gambler, dating back to Oct 2019. My biggest problem being that I have not staked
them to win often enough. In 2021, they’ve been a better team to bet at home
than on the road and have been good at covering pucklines -1.5 when favored.
They had one blowout loss to Buffalo at home, and I foolishly made a large
wager on Buffalo to win the next game, which was also in Philly. Otherwise, the
Flyers would be higher up my list.
Last Year Rank: 27
Team Win-Loss Record: 6-3
Bet On: 6 ($735)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $292 (LR: 5)
Bet Against: 3 (-$20)
My attempts at
gambling on St. Louis games last season ran a large negative balance, whether I
bet them to win or lose. As the defending Stanley Cup champion in 2019/20,
there was not good value on their lines. After an early exit from the Covid
Cup, their odds have grown fairer. Nearly all my winnings have come betting them
to win on the moneyline. They covered a pair of pucklines -1.5 on the road
against Anaheim, when coincidently, I had the Ducks +1.5 (that bet makes more
sense if you read my Anaheim summary). The Blues are good and have some bad
teams in their division.
Last Year Rank: 26
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-3
Bet On: 7 ($415)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$191 (LR: 17)
Bet Against: 1 ($110)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $0 (LR: 12)
The Bruins have been
the favorite in all 8 of their games, winning 5, but have only covered the
puckline -1.5 three times. That could change going forward with the return of
David Pastrnak. My own bets have been on Boston in 7 of 8 games, winning $1,215
when betting them to win at home, and losing $800 when betting them to win on
the road (most of those losses came on the puckline). We’ll see how long these
home-road splits continue, but I’ll be cautious betting them on the road going
forward, while continuing to bank those Boston home games.
Last Year Rank: 17
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-2
Bet On: 5 ($175)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $11 (LR: 11)
Bet Against: 2 ($338)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: -$288 (LR: 23)
Vegas is once again a
good team, and I’ve managed to run a positive balance on both sides, cashing in
twice on them to lose. I’ve squandered my money when betting them -1.5 on the
pucklines, but offset that with a strong moneyline performance. As far as
building a Vegas strategy going forward, they are currently under a Covid
lockdown, so it’s hard to judge how that will affect their fortunes. Doesn’t
seem to be hurting teams thus far. There are some weak opponents in that division,
so I’ll probably be betting the Golden Knights often all season, but be weary
against the Blues or Avalanche.
Last Year Rank: 14
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-2
Bet On: 5 ($881)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$206 (LR: 18)
Bet Against: 1 (-$400)
My one bet against the Lightning came after their return from a Covid delay when they played Columbus, and clearly that was a mistake. The Lightning have not covered a puckline -1.5 on the road, hence why a team with a winning record has a negative balance when you bet them to win every game ML+PL. The Tampa home puckline -1.5 was among my most profitable bets in January, including a $1000 bet -115 to beat Chicago by 2 or more. I won’t be betting the Lightning to lose very often.
UPDATE: I hit my first
2 Tampa bets in Feburary, winning $1500. Home puckline.
Last Year Rank: 11
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-5
Bet On: 2 (-$245)
Bet Against: 6 ($713)
Shorting the Sharks
has been one of the more dependable tools in my tool box the last 2 seasons.
They played the entire month of January on the road, and opponent puckline -1.5
has been the most profitable outcome on which to wager. There are some teams in
the Sharks weight class within that division, so it’s not impossible that they
pick some home wins along the way. They struggle defensively and their
expensive core of players are getting old. The Sharks are the only team who is
not allowed to play at home, so they could be interesting when they finally get an
extended home stand and face opponents like Arizona, Anaheim, and Los Angeles.
Last Year Rank: 8
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-5
Bet On: 2 (-$276)
Bet Against: 6 ($530)
I’ve enjoyed success betting
against the Coyotes dating back to Oct 2019, over which time they’ve been a
quasi-decent team, making the playoffs last season. They’ve been one of the
worst teams to bet on in 2021. They have been good to bet against on the road, especially
on the puckline. That being said, half their games have been against Vegas, who
are easily a superior team. The Yotes were a 50-50 team against Anaheim and San
Jose, so when they are competing in their weight class, it gets harder to pick
a winner. In a lightweight vs lightweight match, the home team is probably the
best option.
Last Year Rank: 15
Team Win-Loss Record: 2-8
Bet On: 6 ($171)
Bet Against: 4 ($74)
It can be hard at
times for me as a Red Wings fan to place truly unbiased bets, hence why my
money has been on the woeful Wings in 6 of their 10 games. The good news is, I’m
running a positive balance in those instances because twice it was +1.5 at
home, which they lost but covered against Florida. They beat Carolina and
Columbus at home when I had the Wings to win. Going forward, I’ll be shorting
the Wings heavy. It’s a minor miracle that I’ve profited from my 6 bets on
Detroit, especially considering my losses betting them against Chicago.
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-2
Bet On: 3 ($300)
Bet Against: 3 (-$351)
The start of the
Stars season was delayed due to a Covid outbreak, and I made a big bet on them
to lose in their debut, which was a colossal mistake (spoiler alert: they won
7-0). If you don’t count that blunder, I’d be running a positive balance
betting Stars matches. They dropped back-to-back on the road against Carolina
when my stake was on the Canes to win. My best outcomes on games involving the
Stars is bet home team moneyline. There are some weak teams in their division,
so I’m bullish on the Stars going forward.
Team Win-Loss Record: 7-3
Bet On: 4 (-$408)
Bet Against: 6 ($77)
Spoiler alert: I hate
the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the Hockey Gods get angry with me when I bet them
to win. They are also the most public team in the NHL, next to maybe the
Rangers and Penguins, so you don’t typically get great value on their lines.
Last year the Leafs ranked as my #1 most profitable team to bet against, and
they were nearly a playoff team. Shorting the Leafs has worked for me in the
past, though most of those winnings came from betting on Ottawa +165 early.
Otherwise wagering on Toronto to lose has not been a smart bet.
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-3
Bet On: 4 (-$138)
Bet Against: 4 (-$450)
There has been good
value betting the Jets to win this season, going 5-3 in January. I’m running a
negative balance whether staking them to win or lose, which has carried over
from last season when they were among my worst teams to bet on or against.
Overall, they have been a good team to pick at home, but I’m just picking the
wrong home games (most especially a costly loss to Vancouver). Going forward, I’ll be targeting games in Winnipeg where the opponents have been isolating
for days with shitty WIFI. The Jets have a winning record, but have a few
stinkers in their game log.
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-1
Bet On: 3 ($149)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $679 (LR: 4)
Bet Against: 3 (-$800)
It hasn’t been a good
year to short the Hurricanes, which is where all my losses have come when betting
this team (including a big bet on Nashville to win at home). The Canes had some
games postponed due to Covid, which didn’t stop them from going 5-1 to start
the season. I’m running a positive balance when betting them to win, and won my
last 2 bets of the month on this team beating Dallas. Petr Mrazek recently had
thumb surgery, and James Reimer will be primarily backstopping the team going
forward. That makes me somewhat nervous to double down on them to win.
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-4
Bet On: 3 (-$25)
Bet Against: 4 (-$696)
Calgary was my enigma
team last season, and I’ve made a few improvements but am still losing on both
sides of the bet, especially when wagering against the Flames. Most of those
losses came in a single game $1,100 wager on Montreal to beat Calgary, which
was personally stolen by Jacob Markstrom. My sense is that they are a decent
team with a goalie who can steal some games. They are clearly better than
Vancouver and Ottawa, worse than Montreal and Toronto, while Edmonton and
Winnipeg are a bit of a coin toss.
Team Win-Loss Record: 2-6
Bet On: 3 (-$300)
Bet Against: 5 (-$435)
In 5 of the 6 Rangers
losses, their opponent failed to cover the puckline -1.5, which is why betting
against them has been a losing option despite their record. Many pundits came
into this season with high expectations for this team, and they’ve struggled.
The Islanders embarrassed them in the first game of the season, so I followed
that up with a large bet on the Islanders to win the rematch, which the Rangers
won. Otherwise, I’d have a positive record betting the Rangers to lose. I’ll probably
be shorting the Rangers more often than not going forward, though they do have
enough talent to heat up at any moment.
Team Win-Loss Record: 6-4
Bet On: 7 (-$592)
Bet Against: 3 (-$290)
It did not become fully
clear to me how often I had been betting on Minnesota to win until preparing
this report. It was not a deliberate or conscious strategy on my part, and has
proven to be unsuccessful. The Wild are a better team to bet against even if
they have posted a winning record. One of the reasons I bet them so often in
January was because they played a majority of their games at home, 4 of them
against Anaheim and Los Angeles. Those games were split, and I came out a big
loser. They also split a pair of home games vs Colorado, and I bet the wrong
side in both matches.
Team Win-Loss Record: 5-3
Bet On: 6 (-$979)
Bet Against: 2 (-$200)
Overall, the Montreal Canadiens have been one of the best teams to gamble your money on, but that hasn’t translated to my own portfolio. They played a majority of their January games on the road, so I’ve been reluctant to bet too much until a giant bet on them to beat Calgary at home, which they lost to end the month. The Habs have only lost 3 games, and I had bets on them to win each time.
UPDATE: I won nearly
$1,800 on large bets for Montreal to smash Vancouver for their first 2 February
matches. So while I finished January in the red betting Habs games, I’m back in
black.
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-6
Bet On: 5 (-$1,245)
Bet Against: 4 (-$170)
The Islanders were
among my best teams to bet on in 2019/20, and I’ve staked too much money on
them to win early in 2021. Though I’m running a positive balance when picking
them at home, with a massive negative balance when betting them to win on the
road (including against the Covid Caps). The optimal strategy to recapture my
Islanders magic may be betting them at home and shorting them on the road. That’s
the best blueprint that I can extract from their results one month into the
season. Like the Rangers, they’re a threat to heat up at any moment.
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-5
Bet On: 2 (-$450)
Bet Against: 7 (-$1,034)
The New Jersey Devils
are a better team than I thought they were, and it cost me dearly early in the
season. There has actually been good value betting on them to win overall, but that
didn’t register for me right away because I started shorting them heavy after
they lost Blackwood due to injury. I lost a large wager when Scott Wedgewood
shutout the Islanders. Any other year, my conclusion would be to bet more often
on the Devils to win. Problem is, half their team just went on the Covid list
and their games are postponed for at least a week. We’ll see how they respond.
Team Win-Loss Record: 6-3
Bet On: 6 ($484)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $727 (LR: 3)
Bet Against: 3 (-$2,050)
The Capitals are 6-3
and have been a good team to wager your money to win. The Caps were one of my
best teams to bet on last season, and I was off to another tremendous start betting
them to win before Ovechkin, Samsonov, Orlov, and Kuznetsov were all placed under
Covid protocol. That’s when I started betting heavy on the Caps to lose, which
proved to be a big mistake. My attempted “big short” of the Covid Caps was among
my most costly January errors. Going forward, I’ll be back to betting them to
win.
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-5
Bet On: 1 ($180)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $200 (LR: 7)
Bet Against: 7 (-$1,748)
The Kings were my
best team to bet on last season, shorting them in the first half, and taking
them as longshot winners in the second half, when they orchestrated a number of
upsets. I started 2021 going heavy on the Kings to lose and got caught with my
head down, taking a $1,700 loss on two games against the Avalanche in LA, where
I had big wagers on the Colorado -1.5 puckline. I’m not quite sure how to
handle the Kings going forward, but rest assured I’ll be avoiding their
opponents on the puckline for at least the near future.
Team Win-Loss Record: 3-7
Bet On: 5 ($10)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$220 (LR: 19)
Bet Against: 5 (-$1,636)
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-6
Bet On: 6 (-$2,172)
Bet Against: 4 ($544)
As previously
discussed, I made some large bets on the Sabres to beat the Covid Caps, and had
to take a big L. I’m running a profit when shorting the Sabres, and need to bet
against them more often going forward (they’ve been the 3rd best
team to bet against overall). Wagering on the Sabres to win has been a losing
proposition both on the road and at home in a very tough division. I’m
confident that this current deficit will be overcome with a big short. The
Sabres were my 9th best team to bet in 2019/20, and most of that was
betting them to lose.
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-6
Bet On: 8 (-$1,903)
Bet Against: 2 (-$150)
I entered this season
under the misconception that the Blue Jackets were a good hockey team and bet
them on the road against Detroit, Chicago, and Nashville, winning 2 of those 6 games and failing to cover the
puckline against Detroit or Chicago. As illustrated above, road pucklines -1.5
have been a personal waste dump for me, winning just 2 of 21 attempts. The best play
has been on Blue Jackets opponents +1.5 when Columbus is favored. It’s also
worth pointing out that Patrik Laine is about to be injected into the line-up,
which might help raise their standing as the 29th best team to bet
on overall.
Team Win-Loss Record: 6-4
Bet On: 7 (-$2,121)
Bet Against: 3 (-$20)
My belief that the
Colorado Avalanche are the best team in the NHL cost me dearly in January,
after being among my 5 best teams to bet on in 2019/20. The road puckline -1.5
has been especially devastating, going 0 for 4 against Anaheim and Los Angeles.
I’ve been running a profit when betting the Avalanche to win at home, though I
may have to start shorting the team now that it’s been announced that Nathan
MacKinnon is week-to-week with an injury. It’s a big deficit to recover from,
and the future is murky with all these injuries.
Team Win-Loss Record: 4-4
Bet On: 4 (-$1,800)
Bet Against: 4 (-$1057)
Through the first
month of 2021, the Nashville Predators are my enigma team, where I’m losing on
both sides. Last year, Calgary was my top enigma team that I could not pick
correctly to win or lose. There has been a higher payout if you bet Nashville
to win every game versus lose every game. I lost money on every single
Predators game in January. Though I’m running a positive balance betting the
moneyline for Nashville to lose on the road, but still lost money in those
games by doubling down on the puckline (which Tampa and Dallas failed to
cover). My smartest move may be reducing my bet sizes on Preds game, and deploying
a George Costanza “do the opposite strategy”.
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