Best/Worst NHL Goalies to Bet in First Half of 2021

Who have been the best NHL Goalies to bet your money on over the first half of the 2021 season? We will be looking at every game from Jan 13 to March 20 of the current season and the sum of all bets in $100 denominations based on the starting goaltender at puck drop. The caveat here is that most of the lines in my betting spreadsheet were recorded the night before games, or early in the morning on game day. The actual starting goaltender is not always known at the time that I’m recording my own bets. When there is a big talent disparity between the primary starter and his back-up, the betting lines will often shift when the inferior goaltender is named starter.

A great example of disparity between goaltenders involves the Detroit Red Wings, with Jonathan Bernier ranking as the #1 best goalie to bet in the first half of 2021. The Wings were by far the worst team in the league last season, and are a popular team to bet against. But your own success picking their games is entirely dependent on the starting goaltender. Because while Bernier might be the best goalie on which to stake your cash, Thomas Greiss was dead last (the worst goalies to bet on list is displayed below). If you wagered $100 on every Bernier start, you are up $855 on the season through March 20. Thomas Greiss has started the same number of games, but putting $100 on him to win every start would have cost you $1310 in losses.

If you bet $100 on the Red Wings to win (moneyline) every game that Jonathan Bernier starts, you're up $855 on the year. If you bet $100 on every Thomas Greiss start, you've lost $1310. That being said, I'm still reluctant to recommend anyone bet 💰 on Bernier. #NHLBetting #LGRW

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) March 21, 2021

Andrei Vasilevskiy has easily been the best goalie in the league this season, but is only 2^nd on this list despite winning many more games than Bernier. The reason is because the Red Wings tend to be massive underdogs, leading to a far greater rate of return on each Bernier win. Whereas Tampa tends to be a heavy favorite, so the returns betting Vasilevskiy are smaller. While you have won $666 betting moneyline on the top Tampa goalie, you would have won $761 if you bet $100 on Tampa -1.5 every opportunity when Andrei is starting. That’s simply a matter of line value, as Tampa tends to only offer small payouts.

While Vasilevskiy was only #2 on the best goalies to bet (due to payouts), he did finish #1 on the worst goalies to bet against list. If you put $100 on the moneyline for Tampa’s opponent to win every Vasilevskiy start, you’ve lost $1495. That’s the single worst outcome you can bet for goalie starts, Vasilevskiy opponents are a worse bet than Thomas Greiss to win. The other goalies you should avoid betting to lose are Marc-Andre Fleury and Phillip Grubauer.

If we’re looking at the rest of the list for best goalies to wager -1.5 goals, the 2nd and 3rd place spots did elicit some surprise in Ilya Sorokin ($630) and Kaapo Kahkonen ($525). You won’t find Bernier on that list because the Red Wings were not favored in any of his starts, but he absolutely would have turned a profit +1.5 goals. The two worst goalies to bet -1.5 goals were Jordan Binnington and Tuukka Rask. Neither of them cracked the list of the worst moneyline goalies to bet.

Who were the worst goalies to bet your money on?

After a solid start to the season, John Gibson has been in a free fall. Their lack of goaltending depth is the primary reason he has started so many games, whereas Carter Hutton is providing a far worse rate of return “per start”. Hutton’s back-up in Buffalo Jonas Johansson lost all 6 starts before getting moved to Colorado. One name people might have expected to see on the biggest losers list is Matt Murray in Ottawa, who struggled significantly early in the schedule, but ultimately backstopped enough upsets to win back a big chunk of those losses.

If I were to make a different list of the most profitable goalies to be AGAINST, Greiss is still number one and several names from the above list of losses also appear. But the 2nd best goalie to bet his opponent when he’s starting is Curtis McElhinney, the back-up goalie in Tampa. The reason Curtis is near the top of that list but not the one above is that Tampa still tends to be a heavy favorite when McElhinney gets the nod, meaning you’re getting a quality rate of return on the opponent (versus just losing your bet when McElhinney fails to win).