Feb 2021 NHL Fantasy Market Report

Since the 2021 season began, I have been tracking player ownership and statistics month by month on Yahoo. At the end of every month, I’ll be posting the top risers and fallers in ownership, with a brief synopsis.  You’ll also get my top performers and top disappointments of the month. All the numbers listed below are entirely for the month of February (unless stated otherwise).

 

Best Value:

 

February All-Star Team: Best players for the month by position. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below.

C) Auston Matthews, Tor: 11 GP, 21 PTS
W) David Pastrnak, Bos: 11 GP, 17 PTS
W) Patrick Kane, Chi: 13 GP, 24 PTS
D) Kris Letang, Pit: 10 GP, 11 PTS
D) Victor Hedman, TB: 13 GP, 12 PTS
G) Andrei Vasilevskiy, TB: 10 GP, 8 Wins, .946 SV%

 

Best Value Under 50% Owned (Feb 1) All-Star Team: Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below. 

C) Jack Roslovic, Cbj: 13 GP, 12 PTS

W) James van Riemsdyk, Phi: 8 GP, 12 PTS

W) Cam Atkinson, Cbj: 6 GP, 10 PTS 

D) Brett Pesce, Car: 14 GP, 11 PTS

D) Nick Leddy, NYI: 12 GP, 9 PTS

G) Mike Smith, Edm: 8 GP, .934 SV% and 2.04 GAA

 

Top Ownership Risers:

Which NHL players had the biggest jump in fantasy hockey ownership for the month of February 2021?

1) Mike Smith, Edm, +57%: Smith was injured to start the season, and has not been a reliable goaltender in fantasy for the last few years. He returned to the crease as a man on fire, and quickly disappeared from waiver wires. Don’t count on this lasting indefinitely, but keep playing with that house money until it runs out.

No player saw their #FantasyHockey ownership climb more in February than Mike Smith, climbing from 4% to 61% on Yahoo. I declined to hop on board the hype train because I've got no faith in him sustaining high quality performance. Nino Niederreiter was next, going from 8% to 58%.

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) March 1, 2021

 

2) Nino Niederreiter, Car, +50%: Nino had a strong February after starting the month in single digit ownership, ascending up to 58%, which is just under his peak from 2019/20. Most of his success was tied to chemistry with Trocheck (scroll down for more on that). After just 3 PTS in January, he rebounded with 9 PTS in Feb.

Nino Niederreiter's stock price is soaring📈after scoring 7 PTS in his 7 GP.🔥 Nino was 23% owned on Yahoo when I recommended him in my Feb 14 #FantasyHockey Report, and he's climbed all the way up to 56% by Feb 22. He's not even playing with Aho. Likely to cool off eventually.

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 22, 2021

 

3) Kevin Lankinen, Chi, +48%: Lankinen would probably be the front runner for the Calder if not for Kirill Kaprizov, raising his ownership to 81% by month’s end. The Blackhawks in general have been a far better team than anticipated. Lankinen had a few bad games at the end of the month, but otherwise has outperformed “elite” goalies like Carey Price.

Has the Kevin Lankinen for the Vezina conversation started yet? #Blackhawks

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 11, 2021

 

4) James van Riemsdyk, Phi, +45%: Through the first 18 games of the season, JVR scored at a 114-point pace, playing some of his most productive hockey in years. He finished the month 84% owned, after peaking at 55% in 2019/20. He’s sustained this hot streak longer than anyone could have expected.

5) Dustin Brown, LA, +44%: Dustin Brown must have lost supply of age defying supplements last season, but clearly his dealer stocked up during Covid. Brown ended February 68% owned, significantly higher than his 48% peak in 2020. The hard hitting winger scored at a 70-point pace through the first 20 games.

Father Time is really struggling to get the best of 36-year-old Dustin Brown. It looked like he was gaining the upper-hand in 2020, but Dustin is proving elusive once again in 2021. Brown was basically washed-up by 2016, but discovered the fountain of youth in 2017.😮 #GoKingsGo

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 23, 2021

 

6) Jordan Staal, Car, +44%: Staal has been enjoying an extended hot streak, longer than we’ve seen in the past. He’s not the driver of that bus, just a passenger on the Svechnikov Express. Jordan is benefitting from the coach diversifying the talent across the forward lines.

7) Vincent Trocheck, Car, +44%: The less effective Vincent Trocheck we saw after that gruesome injury appears to be in the rear-view mirror. Vinny closed Feb 75% owned, which is still below his peak from 2019/20, but getting close. He would be on pace for 73 PTS in a normal 82-game schedule.

8) Christian Dvorak, Ari, +40%: Dvorak is soaring to new heights in fantasy ownership, reaching 51% in Feb, more than double his peak of 22% from 2020. That growth in equity can be attributed to his growth in production, scoring at a 62-point pace over his first 21 games of 2021.

9) Chris Driedger, Fla, +39%: I’ve been pumping Driedger regularly in my Fantasy Hockey Reports this month, as he has proven that last season’s outstanding small sample was not a fluke. He’s a legitimately good goalie and beating out Bobrovsky in the battle for starts.

10) Mats Zuccarello, Min, +38%: Mats Zuccarello was injured to start the season, and was shot out of the cannon upon getting cleared to play. Sure, a big part of that may be attributable to Kaprizov residuals, but his owners aren’t complaining.

Mats Zuccarello is only 4 games into his 2021 campaign and already has 7 PTS. His current 143-point pace is obviously unsustainable, but the upside is still high if he continues playing with Kaprizov. He's 13% owned in #FantasyHockey and is the most added player on Yahoo today.📈

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 23, 2021

 

Worst Value:

 

February Big Bust Team: Most Disappointing Players Over 60% Owned Feb 1, (not including injured players, and ownership listed below is from Feb 28). Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.

F) Mika Zibanejad, NYR, (90% owned): 11 GP, 4 PTS

F) Taylor Hall, Buf, (89% owned): 9 GP, 3 PTS

F) Dylan Larkin, Det, (78% owned): 12 GP, 3 PTS

D) Erik Karlsson, SJS, (66% owned): 6 GP, 1 PT

D) Ryan Suter, Min, (42% owned): 8 GP, 2 PTS

G) Carey Price, Mtl, (95% owned): 7 GP, 2 Wins, .880 SV%

 

February Deep Bust Team: Biggest February busts between 10% and 50% ownership on Feb 1. Ownership listed below is from Feb 28. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.

F) Alexandre Texier, Cbj, (4% owned): 13 GP, 2 PTS

F) Ryan Getzlaf, Ana, (7% owned): 9 GP, 2 PTS

F) Nolan Patrick, Phi, (4% owned): 8 GP, 0 PTS

D) Nate Schmidt, Van, (29% owned): 13 GP, 2 PTS

D) Esa Lindell, Dal, (10% owned): 10 GP, 1 PT

G) Martin Jones, SJ, (16% owned): 7 GP, 3 Wins, .880 SV%

 

Top Ownership Decliners: 

What NHL players have seen their ownership drop the most in the month of February? Players who only dropped due to injury will not be included, focusing on the healthy players who dropped significantly.

1) Juuse Saros, Nsh, -34%: Saros played 40 games last season producing a .914 SV%, and with Pekka aging, Juuse seemed destined for bigger things. Instead, it’s been a big disappointment, posting a sub .900 SV% over the first 6 weeks and losing the primary gig to the veteran near retirement.

2) Tomas Tatar, Mtl, -32%: Tatar’s average Fantasy ownership last season was 61% when he produced at a 74-point pace. The winger is scoring at a 43-point pace in 2021, which explains why so many have dumped their stock. In standard leagues, he’s a streamer at best.

3) Alex Romanov, Mtl, -32%: Everyone got a little too excited about Romanov too soon, at least from a Fantasy Hockey perspective. The rookie is a talented defenseman, but it can take time to adjust to playing this position in the NHL. His dynasty value is high, his 2021 standard league value, not so much.

4) Anthony DeAngelo, ?, -30%: F**k this guy. Maybe demand for his services was softer than reported.

5) Viktor Arvidsson, Nsh, -29%: The evidence of decline started last season, but did not hit full bloom until 2021. Now we know Arvidsson is not the player we remember. He’s been scoring at a 30–40-point pace for since 2019. The market has been slow to react to his demise.

6) Braden Holtby, Van, -28%: The Thatcher Demko era in Vancouver already seems to be underway. That’s a big relief for me, because 2 weeks into the season, I was looking pretty stupid for putting Demko on my sleeper list. Holtby posted an .893 SV% over his first 10 starts.

7) Ryan Suter, Min, -24%: Suter is starting to slow down offensively, though a big part of his decline may be due to the team’s Covid absence and managers have just been slow to re-acquire his rights because his stats aren’t impressive. He may only need 1-2 good weeks for his stock price to recover.

8) Reilly Smith, Veg, -24%: Solid 2-way winger scored at a 62-point pace last season, following that up with a 34-point pace through 17 games in 2021. Keep an eye on him as a streamer if he starts to re-discover his mojo, but he's hard to hold permanently in a standard sized league.

It has not been a strong start to the season for the line of Reilly Smith, Marchessault, and Karlsson. The trio has been climbing the drop list in #FantasyHockey, their market share declining. I wouldn't drop Marchessault yet but the other 2 are expendable in standard leagues.📉

— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 3, 2021

 

9) Alexis Lafreniere, NYR, -24%: Lafreniere was on this list last month too, as we regularly over-value the high draft picks. The NHL is a difficult league. His dynasty value hasn’t waivered, but his standard league value has. The signs of improvement have already begun. It won’t take much to swing my prognosis in a positive direction.

10) Timo Meier, SJ, -21%: I’ve been a Timo believer as recently as September 2019, but am nearly ready to cancel my membership in the Meier Fan Club. He’s still a decent asset in bangers leagues, but it doesn’t look like he’ll hit the offensive ceiling that his supporters envisioned 2 years ago.