My NHL gambling experiment ended the month of January down $4,400, but after betting heavy on home teams to start the month of Feburary, I was able to climb my way back above zero. Since we don't have legal single game betting in Canada, these picks were all made in a spreadsheet using American odds (either William Hill or BetMGM). The returns on home teams soared early in the season with most arenas empty, presumably because there were some tough adjustments to life on the road amid a pandemic, trying to adhere to the league’s strict protocols. Then around Feb 6, the trendline began to reverse course, and road teams started to win more games.
The gambling payouts on #NHL home teams has started to shrink in the last few days as the road teams strike back. What caused the trendline to reverse course? It can be traced back to my Tweet about the success of home teams a few days ago. That's the precise moment it flipped.🤨 pic.twitter.com/Qwp2UFsKfl
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 10, 2021
The rate of return for #NHL Home favorites -1.5 on the puck line when facing the same visitor for the 2nd or 3rd time in the same trip is $1.44 per $1 wagered. Ergo, teams who have been isolating in hotels for multiple days on the road are getting their asses kicked.💰💰💰 https://t.co/MKmc9eHIn5
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 4, 2021
The Ottawa Senators captured the top spot in my January power rankings, as betting against the Sens proved to be a very profitable strategy early in the season. But soon their play would improve, and “the big short” was starting to post losses. They would soon be overtaken in early February by the Vancouver Canucks, who became my most profitable team to bet against. When the Sens won and covered the +1.5 puckline in a pair of games against Montreal, some of my early profits were paid back.
The trend that began in January but became even more evident in February is that my best division gambling was the Canadian, which does make some sense given there are a disproportionate number of Canadian games on television in Vancouver. The only asterisk on that claim is Montreal, who seems to do the opposite of whatever I bet.
Puckline bets -1.5 were paying off early, but they took a downward spiral throughout most of February, and as such, my own strategy has been pivoting towards the +1.5 offerings. They’re not as sexy given the lower payouts, but it’s a much more reliable investment. The problem when you start running a negative balance is that you need to cover your losses by taking bigger swings, when the smarter play is likely safer wagers.
I didn’t completely abandon the -1.5 puckline, as smashing the favorites against Ottawa and Vancouver was responsible for a significant chunk of my early success. The problem is that the gap between the good teams and bad teams has been shrinking, so the underdogs are covering the spread more often. -1.5 pucklines can be a useful tool when you get a team like the 2020 Tampa Bay Lightning hammering bad teams consistently, but be weary of falling into that trap when the difference in talent is smaller between opponents.
In past months, I’ve been better at picking who is going to lose individual games than visa versa. Shorting Ottawa and Vancouver are excellent examples. But when it comes to choosing who is going to win any given match, it can get difficult. In February, my best teams for winning both the game and the bet were the New York Islanders, Winnipeg Jets, and Edmonton Oilers. A big reason for that wasn’t just that the teams were good, but they were not getting respect from the bookies, so have tended to offer higher payouts. The market does correct itself over time, so something that works one week/month isn’t always transferable to the next.
The next step is building a successful algorithm, which I flirted with in the month of February. This is an ongoing process. The first algorithm compiled with 2019/20 data produced significant negative losses. Almost to where it would have been profitable to bet against the algorithm every night, like it was being read upside down. Its purpose wasn’t necessarily to pick winners, but rather to measure which lines are “off”. If you applied it to the full 2019/20 schedule, simply making a $100 bet every time there was value on either side, it resulted in a net gain. The problem is, there was a much more random distribution of opponents and it doesn’t necessarily fit to these unique circumstances. Until I’m able to adequately construct a second algorithm to properly interpret and bet the results of the original algorithm, I’ll need to find a new strategy.
The Zig Zag
One day while flipping through some NHL gambling strategy sites, I stumbled upon an old technique called “zig zagging” which under normal circumstances is only used in the playoffs. The “Zig Zag Theory” is based on the observation that when teams play a series of consecutive games, the loser of the previous match is going to win 55% of the time. Why this phenomenon occurs is anyone’s guess, but it likely has something to do with motivation and losers giving a greater effort in the next contest.
If you consider that the better team is more likely to win game 1, then the loser should hypothetically have more like a 40%-45% chance of winning the next game. Normally in regular seasons, teams don’t play enough consecutive games against the same opponent to provide a meaningful number of betting opportunities. This pandemic season is different, as the NHL is squeezing more games into a shorter window with less travel, meaning, there is more zig zagging in 2021 than ever before (and possibly ever again).
Now that the 2021 campaign is 6 weeks old, we have more data with which to build an algorithm or strategy to reflect these unique scheduling parameters. My algorithm based on 2019/20 data has not yet fit 2021 results, which will soon be modified once there is a satisfactory amount of 2021 data on the books. In the meantime, I embarked on an investigation into the effectiveness of zig zagging during these unique times, and it was verified to produce profit with the loser of the previous match winning 54% of games.
It is less effective when dealing with an extreme underdog, and in the first game of a new string of consecutive meetings. The team who lost when they last played a few weeks ago is not any more likely to win the next time. In the cases of game 1, it’s better to pick the team who has won a majority of games in the season-long series, and if it’s 50-50, take the home team. Also, puck lines -1.5 don’t seem to produce profit when zagging.
When these criteria were applied to the 2021 gambling slate from day 1 to Feb 28, there were 221 bets made, 115 won (52%), each bet was $100. The total amount wagered was $22,100 and the total won was $22,218, producing $1,218 in profit. Eureka! The great mystery of how to crack this nut has possibly been solved. You can do more of a pure zig zag if you want to adhere to the originally theory. I applied my own touch to game 1 of each series because the purist approach did not produce a profit for the first month of the season. The games need to have happened relatively recently to be applicable.
I will continue to monitor the returns on zig zagging
in the upcoming weeks, as this season is providing some unique parameters that
we may never see again. Perhaps the owners grow fond of these decreased travel
expenses and use similar scheduling formats in future seasons, if revenues fail
to recover to past levels. There might be a future for zig zagging beyond 2021
and the playoffs. I’ve been fascinated with the success that it has produced
thus far. Some teams adhere to the zig zag theory more than others, as Pittsburgh
games zagged 90% Feb games while the Edmonton Oilers only managed 20% zig zag
conversion.
My Best Teams To Bet On In Feb:
1) New York Islanders, (+$2,011)
2) Winnipeg Jets, (+$1,990)
3) Edmonton Oilers, (+1,656)
4) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$1,211)
5) Philadelphia Flyers, (+$1,097)
My Worst Teams To Bet
On In Feb:
1) St. Louis Blues, (-$1,982)
2) Florida Panthers, (-$1,593)
3) Montreal Canadiens, (-$1,028)
4) Dallas Stars, (-$964)
5) Washington Capitals, (-$817)
My Best Teams To Bet
Against In Feb:
1) Vancouver Canucks, (+$5,007)
2) Buffalo Sabres, (+$3,156)
3) Columbus Blue Jackets, (+$1,683)
4) Calgary Flames, (+$1,121)
5) Nashville Predators, (+$686)
My Worst Teams To Bet
Against In Feb:
1) Minnesota Wild, (-$1,455)
2) Ottawa Senators, (-$1,394)
3) Arizona Coyotes, (-$1,331)
Team By Team Power Rankings
The team-by-team betting power rankings are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to win or lose for the entire season (not just Feb). They are my own personal power rankings, reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games. These aren’t necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few instances of good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries for a deeper understanding of the replicability. If you are going to be betting on hockey in the near future, it may help you to read about my own personal success and failure over the month. For an unbiased look, I will include an overall rank of account balances if you bet each team to win or lose every game and every puckline, providing monolithic results of betting both sides consistently team by team.
LR = League Rank
Jan Rank: 6
Feb Win-Loss Record: 2-11
Feb Bet On: 1 (-$350)
Feb Bet Against: 12 ($5,007)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $1,251 (LR: 1)
2) Edmonton Oilers, ($3,441):
Jan Rank: 2
Feb Win-Loss Record: 9-3
Feb Bet On: 8 ($1,656)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $422 (LR: 8)
Feb Bet Against: 4 ($188)
I’ve had stunning success betting Oilers games, picking the correct outcome 15 times in their first 23 GP (65%). Not all those bets were on Edmonton to win. My January success seemed unsustainable, but it was actually more replicable than originally thought. Most of that success came when betting the Oilers to win, as they performed well in the month, boosted by the return of a red-hot Mike Smith. There are enough bad teams in that division, that the Oilers are a smart bet against everyone but Toronto, but if the goaltending slips, the team will too. Smith has not been able to sustain a .930+ SV% for any meaningful duration in the past.
3) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$1,948):
Jan Rank: 3
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-5
Feb Bet On: 5 ($78)
Feb Bet Against: 6 ($481)
Most of my success betting Penguins games in 2021 has been picking them to lose, despite having a winning record. The Pens are a “public team” that people are naturally inclined to bet because of years of sustained success, which tends to shift more value to the other side. The Crosby-Malkin dynasty may be fading, but they are still good at winning home games, struggling more on the road. I’ve been betting them to win more often in February. As mentioned above, the Pens are a strong zig zag team (90%), following up wins with losses, and visa versa. We’ll see if that’s replicable.
4) Philadelphia Flyers, ($1,573):
Jan Rank: 7
Feb Win-Loss Record: 4-4
Feb Bet On: 6 ($1,097)
Feb Bet Against: 2 (-$367)
Last month the Flyers were among my best teams to bet to win and that trend continued into February. They might have ranked higher if not for a prolonged Covid absence, or at least had they played more games against Buffalo. Most of my Flyers profits came in a pair of road wins over the Sabres, which explains why I’ve been succeeding when picking Philly on the road, but losing money at home. They’ve had some injury issues, and as they get healthy, should provide solid returns going forward. I’ll dismiss any struggles in February on health issues, and assume they’ll morph back into playoff contenders at any moment.
5) Winnipeg Jets, ($1,547):
Jan Rank: 17
Feb Win-Loss Record: 8-4
Feb Bet On: 10 ($1,990)
Feb Bet Against: 2 ($144)
Much like the Flames, the Jets surged up my power rankings in February, where I mostly bet them to win, or at least cover the spread. The Jets did not get much love from the sportsbooks, as they were often the underdog, and I smashed the puckline +1.5 most of the time that opportunity presented itself. That’s where most of my Jets profits have come. Anyone who was betting regularly against this team did not have a good month, whether they were at home or on the road. They should start to be favored in more games going forward, but I’ll continue to take that +1.5 when offered.
6) Buffalo Sabres, ($1,527):
Jan Rank: 28
Feb Win-Loss Record: 4-6
Feb Bet On: 0 ($0)
Feb Bet Against: 9 ($3,156)
Once my early problem of stupidly betting Buffalo to win was resolved, my fortunes betting Sabres games dramatically improved. No team has climbed higher in my power rankings over the 28 days of February than Buffalo, with 100% of my wagers falling on them to lose. They would undoubtedly be higher on this list had they not missed time due to Covid, as I’m excited at the prospect of betting them to lose in their densely scheduled March, even more so now that goaltender Linus Ullmark is injured. Jack Eichel has battled health issues and wants out of town. Short the Sabres at every opportunity!
7) Ottawa Senators, ($1,301):
Jan Rank: 1
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-8
Feb Bet On: 2 (-$121)
Feb Bet Against: 12 (-$1,394)
The Sens were by far my best team to bet against in January, as I bet heavily on their opponents to win, both moneyline and puckline. Unfortunately, a big chunk of those profits were paid back once February began and the team started to improve significantly. I’m still running a profit on them for the year, but they’re no longer a safe pick to lose. Quite the opposite actually, as you’d be running a significant profit if you bet them to win every game, or at least cover the spread +1.5. It will still take some time before I’m comfortable betting them to win more often. At the very least, “the big short” is over.
8) Calgary Flames, ($1,289):
Jan Rank: 19
Feb Win-Loss Record: 7-8
Feb Bet On: 6 ($888)
Feb Bet Against: 9 ($1,121)
The Flames have surged up my gambling power rankings after a rough start to the year. They have mostly been a mediocre team, hovering near the .500 mark. I’ve been succeeding on both sides of the bet, when picking them to both win and lose (with more bets on them to lose). They lost 5 out 7 to close out the month of February, and I bet their opponent in 6 of those games. Markstrom’s fantastic play in January may have disguised some flaws on this roster, which have been magnified since his play started to slip and he suffered an injury. Back-up Dave Rittich did cost me a $800 when he unexpectedly shutout the Maple Leafs.
9) Vegas Golden Knights, ($851):
Jan Rank: 10
Feb Win-Loss Record: 7-3
Feb Bet On: 10 ($338)
Feb Bet Against: 0 ($0)
The Vegas Golden Knights are significantly superior to most of the opponents in their division. The Blues have a puncher’s chance against this team, Colorado can match their talent, everyone else is vastly inferior (warning: Minnesota might be good). Most of my bets on Vegas games are on them to win or cover (they struggled to cover pucklines -1.5 in February). They don’t typically offer much value on their lines, so you have to lay down big bets to make much profit. Example: I lost $900 when they were shutout 1-0 by the Ducks, and it took me 6 games betting them to win before I made that money back (there was a loss to Colorado in there that cost me an additional $450).
10) Tampa Bay Lightning, ($791):
Jan Rank: 11
Feb Win-Loss Record: 10-3
Feb Bet On: 9 ($1,211)
Feb Bet Against: 4 (-$900)
The Lightning may be lacking their most dangerous scoring weapon, but that hasn’t stopped them from winning hockey games. They’ve been among my best teams to pick to win, but only ranked 11th in my January power rankings thanks to missing on some road pucklines -1.5. My biggest mistake with Tampa is not picking them often enough, as I’ve struck out on all my attempts to take their opponents +1.5. The Lightning have been covering the home puckline -1.5 regularly, and I should have continued to smash that. Though my strategy to bet more underdogs +1.5 was part of a greater strategy, not something the Lightning were targeted for specifically. They simply should have been the exception to my +1.5 revolution.
Last night the Tampa Bay Lightning were listed as +140 underdogs for their game today against Carolina, but this morning are -125 favorites. Not sure what flipped overnight, but I was very happy to lock in my bet at the +140 price. Likely a high volume of TB bets at +140. #NHL
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 22, 2021
11) Chicago Blackhawks, ($624):
Jan Rank: 4
Feb Win-Loss Record: 9-4
Feb Bet On: 6 ($228)
Feb Bet Against: 7 (-$927)
I started the season betting heavy on the Blackhawks to lose, expecting their goaltending to be atrociously porous. That strategy would eventually end up costing me money as Kevin Lankinen emerged as a Calder contender. As we progressed through the month of February, I still had trouble accepting them as a good team despite growing evidence that they are. Patrick Kane is having an MVP season, and their goaltending has crushed expectations. They’re comfortably in a playoff spot, and I need to start betting them to win more often, while doubt still lingers in the back of my mind.
Has the Kevin Lankinen for the Vezina conversation started yet? #Blackhawks
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 11, 2021
12) Columbus Blue Jackets, ($604):
Jan Rank: 29
Feb Win-Loss Record: 4-9
Feb Bet On: 6 ($975)
Feb Bet Against: 7 ($1,683)
My mistake early in the season with the BJs was betting them to win, which landed them near the bottom of my January power rankings. They have surged back as one of my better teams in February, whether I’m betting them to win or lose. Overall, they were one of the worst teams to bet on, but I had success picking them at home, especially +1.5 on the puckline. Their poor January start helped juice their payouts in Feb. The addition of Patrik Laine into their line-up did help provide a spark, but they’re still a bad team that have been most profitable to bet against.
13 San Jose Sharks, ($485):
Jan Rank: 12
Feb Win-Loss Record: 4-6
Feb Bet On: 2 (-$194)
Feb Bet Against: 8 ($211)
It’s mostly been profitable to short the Sharks the last two seasons, but they aren’t as reliably bad as you might think. Vegas and Colorado should hammer them every time, but the Sharks have played reasonably well against the Blues, Ducks, Kings, and Coyotes. They’re not a reliable bet to win or lose against those bottom tier teams. The safest play is to take the underdog +1.5 in all their games unless they’re playing Colorado or Vegas. Minnesota may need to be considered in the upper tier of that division and they hammered the Sharks 6-2 in their only Feb meeting. The Sharks are also a strong zig zag team, so that could mean they get extra motivated for revenge, or it’s anomalous and not replicable.
14) New York Islanders, (-$180):
Jan Rank: 23
Feb Win-Loss Record: 8-4
Feb Bet On: 8 ($2,011)
Feb Bet Against: 4 (-$776)
My tendency to bet on the Islanders stayed consistent in February, aside from a greater frequency of bets +1.5 on the puckline (where they delivered at home with a 6-0-2), as their poor start increasingly made them underdogs. They were a much better team in February, going 8-4 in a tough division, and were my best team to bet on overall for the month. My biggest problem was not betting on them more often (though I’ve gotten into trouble for saying those words to myself in the past with other teams, like Montreal and St. Louis). The Isles best asset has been the consistency of Semyon Varlamov, as they are once again among the stingiest defensive teams in the league.
15) Boston Bruins, (-$383):
Jan Rank: 9
Feb Win-Loss Record: 7-4
Feb Bet On: 5 (-$785)
Feb Bet Against: 5 (-$123)
February began with a long Bruins road trip, during which they lost games where I picked them to win, then won games I picked them to lose. They were favored to win every road game they played, and I managed to finish with a positive balance when taking the home dogs +1.5. I’m still running a profit when betting them to win at home (the Bruins have been the only team I’ve picked to win a game in Boston for the entire season). Unfortunately, they’ve played twice as many road games this month, which is where my struggles have come. I suffered two expensive losses when they were upset by New Jersey and the Panarin-less Rangers.
16) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$511):
Jan Rank: 16
Feb Win-Loss Record: 9-3
Feb Bet On: 9 ($1,070)
Feb Bet Against: 3 (-$1,250)
The Toronto Maple Leafs are by far the best team in their division, but it’s hard to get fair value betting them to win because they are arguably the most public team in the league. The margins on their moneylines are painfully low. The home puckline -1.5 has been profitable, which is where they played most of their February games. The 3 games where I bet against the Leafs were their 3 road games, staking Montreal twice and Edmonton once (+1.5 in each case). All that money was lost and clearly an judgment error on my behalf, especially my overrating of the Canadiens in early Feb. I also misplaced $1,800 in 2 Leaf defeats at the hands of Ottawa and Calgary.
17) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$538):
Jan Rank: 18
Feb Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Feb Bet On: 7 (-$129)
Feb Bet Against: 7 ($242)
Overall, I finished with a positive balance on Canes games for the month of February, but carried over a negative balance from January (where I had mistakenly been betting them to lose after returning from Covid). Their season started on fire, but cooled off after going 1-3 in a 4-game set against Tampa (a series that cost me $800 because I took the Canes +1.5 for three of the losses they failed to cover). Carolina also surrendered some upset defeats against Chicago, Columbus, and Florida; so they haven’t been entirely reliable. They played most of their games on the road in February, where they only covered 1 puckline in 9 attempts (hence why a team with a winning record is running a large negative balance when betting on them). A large portion of my Canes success has been picking their underdog opponents +1.5.
18) Dallas Stars, (-$729):
Jan Rank: 15
Feb Win-Loss Record: 2-8
Feb Bet On: 8 (-$964)
Feb Bet Against: 2 ($286)
Most of my February losses on Dallas happened during a 4-game home losing streak where I picked them to win or cover each time (losing $1500 in a pair of losses to Chicago). This team has endured some slumps, then missed a week of action due to a snow storm. They should have just played those games in Cancun instead. Had they won those 2 Chicago games, I’d be in the black on Dallas. My original belief was that this is a good team that has simply been struggling, but eventually they’ll get Tyler Seguin back in the line-up and their goaltending should calm down. But I’m also starting to worry that we have been overrating this team all along, and they might kinda suck.
19) Los Angeles Kings, (-$815):
Jan Rank: 26
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-6
Feb Bet On: 8 ($869)
Feb Bet Against: 4 (-$115)
LA has been an underdog for a large majority of their games this season, and they’ve been a better team than most people would have predicted (including a 6-game winning streak). They have climbed these rankings over the past month, mostly thanks to me picking them +1.5 on the puckline and covering (they were underdogs 11 times and covered +1.5 in 9 of those matches). I’m still not convinced they are a good team, but my strategy of smashing +1.5 spreads when the bad teams play each other has produced very positive results. They’ve at least been getting good goaltending, though I’m concerned how long this outstanding production from Kopitar and Brown can last.
20) St. Louis Blues, (-$1,093):
Jan Rank: 8
Feb Win-Loss Record: 5-7
Feb Bet On: 7 (-$1,982)
Feb Bet Against: 5 ($174)
The Blues were among my better teams to pick to win in January, when I noted that I needed to bet them more often. That was bad judgement on my part, as their performance was about to take a turn for the worse. Few teams cost me more money in February than St. Louis, most notably during a 4-game homestand against the Coyotes. The Blues struggled against Arizona, lost a pair of games to Los Angeles, and barely squeezed out 2 victories in 3 games against San Jose in February. My only read on them going forward is, don’t trust the Blues whether betting them to win or lose.
21) Arizona Coyotes, (-$1,519):
Jan Rank: 13
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-7
Feb Bet On: 7 (-$442)
Feb Bet Against: 6 ($1,331)
My 2021 season started strong shorting the Coyotes against superior opponents, but that all changed in a 4-game trip to St. Louis where they won 3 times and cost me a pile of money. Otherwise my Coyotes performance has been acceptable. Against the lower-class teams in that division, I’m mostly taking underdogs +1.5, which would have been successful against St. Louis had I known they were also a lower tier opponent. This hole is not insurmountable. The Coyotes have not produced good returns with the zig zag strategy, as the zagger only won 40% of their games in Feb.
Betting on this series has been like playing Whack-A-Mole, so I'll be happy to put this one in the rearview mirror. I've incorrectly picked the outcome of the first 6 games, probably because road team won 5 of 6. My new #NHL gambling algorithm likes the Blues moneyline today...😬 https://t.co/54PDDfKuP0
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) February 15, 2021
22) Florida Panthers, (-$1,537):
Jan Rank: 5
Feb Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Feb Bet On: 8 (-$1,593)
Feb Bet Against: 6 (-$1,234)
After starting the season as one of my best teams to bet (where I tempted fate by bragging about my ability to predict the outcome of Sergei Bobrovsky games), the Panthers were wildly inconsistent in February, costing me money on both sides. They had upset wins when I picked them to lose, and dropped a pair of games against the Red Wings when I had large bets on them to win. Perhaps the best strategy is to take the underdog +1.5 in all Panthers games. Be weary picking Florida -1.5 on the puckline, that bet has not been paying off when they’re favored.
23) Detroit Red Wings, (-$1,609):
Jan Rank: 14
Feb Win-Loss Record: 5-9
Feb Bet On: 5 (-$548)
Feb Bet Against: 9 (-$1,305)
The most surprising thing about the Red Wings dropping in my Feb power rankings has been that they’re losing a majority of their games, but I’m losing big money when wagering on that outcome. The sportsbooks have neutered the payouts because shorting the Wings has become too popular. The profits from their losses aren’t enough to overcome the cost of their upset victories, which Jonathan Bernier has been personally delivering. I’ve been picking them periodically at home +1.5, but they’ve been a bigger puckline spoiler on the road. Dylan Larkin was injured at the end of the month, so shorting the Red Wings might become profitable again in the near future.
24) Washington Capitals, (-$1,714):
Jan Rank: 25
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-6
Feb Bet On: 8 (-$817)
Feb Bet Against: 4 ($669)
My problem in January was not choosing the Caps to win often enough (which was Covid related), then my problem in February was too many bets on them to win. They went 6-6 on the month, but were far more profitable to bet against than to picking as winners due to the payouts of the lines. The Caps tend to be favorites, so there is generally a much higher payout on the other side. Most of my success picking their games came in the 4 matches they played against Buffalo and New Jersey (all Caps wins). Their biggest problem against the good teams in their division is keeping pucks out of their own net.
25) Montreal Canadiens, (-$1,915):
Jan Rank: 22
Feb Win-Loss Record: 4-8
Bet On: 9 (-$1,028)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$1,108 (LR: 29)
Bet Against: 3 ($291)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $1,170 (LR: 2)
The Habs enjoyed much success in January after a hot start, but followed that up with a 4-game home losing streak in February that cost me dearly. It certainly seems like they lose most games where I bet them to win, leading me to suspect that I’ve got the ability to affect the outcome based on what choice I make. What I need to do is start a crowd funding campaign targeted specifically at Habs fans to convince me to bet them to lose every game. They were the #1 best team to wager on in January, and the 29th best in February. All that being said, there are still plenty of bad teams in this division. This may yet be a playoff team despite a disastrous month.
26) New York Rangers, (-$2,253):
Jan Rank: 20
Feb Win-Loss Record: 5-6
Feb Bet On: 4 (-$249)
Feb Bet Against: 7 (-$1,269)
In my January Gambling report, it was noted that I needed to wager against the Rangers more often and shed my belief that they’re a good team. Once the calendar turned over, my problem was not betting them to win too often, but rather making large bets on Washington, Boston, and Philadelphia in matches that the Rangers pulled off upset victories. That was the root cause of most of my Rangers liabilities in February. What they’ve been good at is covering pucklines +1.5 thanks to the strong play of their goaltenders. They need Panarin back as soon as possible.
27) New Jersey Devils, (-$2,289):
Jan Rank: 24
Feb Win-Loss Record: 3-5
Feb Bet On: 4 (-$184)
Feb Bet Against: 4 (-$621)
The Devils are another team that missed time this month for pandemic related reasons. Prior to that absence, I was betting them too often to lose, then swung too far the other way upon their return, suffering losses on both sides. They seem to have the ability to upset good teams any given game, but are not able to reliably beat the teams in their weight class and have a losing record in 5 matches against Buffalo. It’s been hard to get a read on their outcomes, especially considering they’ve been a much better road team than they are at home.
28) Minnesota Wild, (-$2,337):
Jan Rank: 21
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-2
Feb Bet On: 0 ($0)
Feb Bet Against: 8 (-$1,455)
The Wild missed 2 weeks in February due to Covid quarantine, and returned with a road trip where I unsuccessfully bet their opponents +1.5. The Wild outscored Anaheim and San Jose 14-4 over 3 games, costing me a substantial sum. Then they upset the Avalanche, costing me another bundle. Then they went home, beat the previously red-hot Kings twice in a row (I had the Kings +1.5). It looks foolish that I bet against a 6-2 team 8 times this month, but they were mostly road games, or Kings +1.5 (which had been a profitable wager for the first 3.5 weeks of February). They are defensible losses, but I need to start betting Minnesota more often because they’re clearly a better team than previously thought.
29) Colorado Avalanche, (-$2,434):
Jan Rank: 30
Feb Win-Loss Record: 5-3
Feb Bet On: 2 (-$-639)
Feb Bet Against: 6 ($347)
The Avs are another franchise who lost 2 weeks due to Covid in February, and they returned to play 4-games against Vegas (where I ran a profit betting the Golden Knights). My worst defeat was a $700 loss when they were upset by the Minnesota Wild, but otherwise would be running a profit in February, thanks mostly to taking the Avs opponents +1.5 (Colorado tends to be the favorite). Hopefully their malaise this month will help juice their payouts going forward. This was one of my best teams to bet last season, and I’m hoping they can produce reliable returns once they get healthy.
30) Nashville Predators, (-$2,821):
Jan Rank: 31
Feb Win-Loss Record: 6-7
Feb Bet On: 3 (-$650)
Feb Bet Against: 10 ($686)
After starting the season as my enigma team where I could not bet either side correctly, it eventually became clear that they’re not very good and better to stake them as losers. They were very nearly a .500 team in February, limiting some of the winnings on that wager. My attempts to pick them as winners were largely unsuccessful, mostly notably a big home loss to Detroit. The Red wings upset Nashville twice this month, which is never a good sign if you want to be taken seriously as a possible playoff team. Tampa outscored them 15-4 over 3 games. They’re a longshot against good teams, but can pull out wins against lesser opponents.
31) Anaheim
Jan Rank: 27
Feb Win-Loss Record: 3-8
Feb Bet On: 6 (-$684)
Feb Bet Against: 5 (-$566)
The Ducks have been a consistently bad team and are often the underdog, which should make them easy to gamble. That has not been the case for me, as they’ve been covering the puckline +1.5 on the road, but not at home. John Gibson was stealing some games early, but began to struggle in February. If it were not for a stunning 1-0 upset victory over Vegas that cost me $900, I’d have a positive balance staking them to lose. Nearly all my losses betting them to win came at home +1.5. Part of my strategy in making that wager so often was because I had lost significant money betting their opponents -1.5 in January. It seemed like a logical tactic.
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