Tuesday, April 6, 2021

March 2021 NHL Fantasy Market Report

Since the 2021 season began, I have been tracking player ownership and statistics month by month on Yahoo. At the end of every month, I’ll be posting the top risers and fallers in ownership, with a brief synopsis.  You’ll also get my top performers and top disappointments of the month. All the numbers listed below are entirely for the month of March (unless stated otherwise).

 

Best Value:

 
March All-Star Team: Best players for the month by position. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below.
 
C) Connor McDavid, Edm: 14 GP, 23 PTS
W) Mikko Rantanen, Col: 17 GP, 25 PTS
W) Gabriel Landeskog, Col: 17 GP, 24 PTS
D) Adam Fox, NYR: 15 GP, 20 PTS
D) Victor Hedman, TB: 14 GP, 15 PTS
G) Philipp Grubauer, Col: 15 GP, 12 Wins, .933 SV%
 
Best Value Under 50% Owned (Mar 1) All-Star Team: Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position below.
 
C) Martin Necas, Car: 14 GP, 17 PTS
W) Pavel Buchnevich, NYR: 15 GP, 19 PTS
W) Carter Verhaeghe, Fla: 16 GP, 16 PTS 
D) Devon Toews, Col: 17 GP, 12 PTS
D) Filip Hronek, Det: 13 GP, 11 PTS
G) Thatcher Demko, Van: 11 GP, 8 Wins, .937 SV%
 
Top Ownership Risers:
 
Which NHL players had the biggest jump in fantasy hockey ownership for the month of March 2021?
 
1) Yanni Gourde, TB, +55%: Gourde surged up the ownership ranks in March as the Bolts had a magnificent streaming schedule in the last week of the month. Gourde scored an impressive 14 PTS in 16 GP for the month, but his production disappointed in those games against Columbus and Detroit, and Yanni has been one of the most dropped players in early April.
 
2) MacKenzie Weegar, Fla, +53%: I was late to board the MacKenzie Weegar bandwagon, but I can no longer deny that he has elevated himself into a consistent offensive contributor. He was already a hot commodity in banger leagues, but has now pushed himself into mainstream relevance. Mac scored 9 PTS in 16 GP in March
 
3) Martin Necas, Car, +49%: Necas is having a breakout season, scoring 17 PTS in 14 March games, mostly playing on a line with Sebastian Aho. This ownership level may not be fleeting, as Marty might be a permanent hold in all leagues going forward. This might be the new normal.
  
4) Pavel Buchnevich, NYR, +49%: Buchnevich is a name that pops up on my weekly fantasy reports every so often when he gets hot or gets a deployment bump. That excitement never seems to be permanent, or lead to sustained growth in ownership. He peaked at 20% owned in 2019/20, was 27% owned at the end of January, and 73% owned at the end of March.
 
5) Jack Campbell, Tor, +46%: Jack stepped into the number 1 job in Toronto when Fred Andersen was injured, and performed outstandingly, producing a .945 SV% in 4 starts. We’ll see what happens after Freddy gets healthy.
 
6) Alex Nedeljkovic, Car, +46%: Nedeljkovic was among the top performing goaltenders in March, posting a .934 SV% in 8 GP while Petr Mrazek was injured. The return of Pete from injury creates a 3-headed monster in the Hurricanes net going forward.
 

7) Carter Verhaeghe, Fla, +42%: The breakout of Carter Verhaeghe has hit full bloom, hitting 68% ownership on Yahoo, continuing his impressive season cashing in on Barkov residuals. The winger scored 16 PTS in 16 GP for the month.
  
8) Thatcher Demko, Van, +35%: Thatcher Demko won 8 of 11 starts in March with a .937 SV%. He was on my sleeper list prior to the season and was on my roster for much of this hot streak after a poor start. The Canucks devastating Covid outbreak complicates the future.
  
9) Joonas Donskoi, Col, +34%: Joonas Donskoi has been on fire, scoring 17 PTS in 16 March games. The peripheral stats have not been particularly good (plus minus notwithstanding) and the scoring rate is entirely unsustainable. Good chance he’ll drop back to Earth shortly. He's a candidate for April's most dropped list.
  
10) Eeli Tolvanen, Nsh, +34%: Tolvanen is a high-end prospect and a dangerous shooter who has been on many analyst’s radar since ripping up the KHL as an 18-year-old. His dynasty value is even greater than in shallower re-draft leagues. He scored 14 PTS in 16 GP and played a key role in the Predators reversal of fortunes.
 
 
Worst Value:
 
March Big Bust Team: Most Disappointing Players Over 60% Owned Mar 1, (not including injured players, and ownership listed below is from Mar 31). Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.
 
F) Jack Hughes, NJ, (38% owned): 17 GP, 4 PTS
F) Patrick Laine, Cbj, (85% owned): 14 GP, 4 PTS
F) Taylor Hall, Buf, (68% owned): 16 GP, 6 PTS
D) Rasmus Ristolainen, Buf, (53% owned): 16 GP, 4 PTS
D) Rasmus Dahlin, Buf, (52% owned): 16 GP, 4 PTS
G) Carter Hart, Phi, (68% owned): 9 GP, 2 Wins, .815 SV%
 
March Deep Bust Team: Biggest March busts between 10% and 50% ownership on Mar 1. Ownership listed below is from Mar 31. Some centers who are eligible at wing in Yahoo are included at the wing position.
 
F) Jeff Skinner, Buf, (10% owned): 16 GP, 3 PTS
F) Joe Thornton, Tor, (10% owned): 14 GP, 2 PTS
F) Evgenii Dadonov, Ott, (18% owned): 13 GP, 4 PTS
D) Alex Romanov, Mtl, (10% owned): 12 GP, 0 PTS
D) Rasmus Andersson, Cgy, (24% owned): 15 GP, 3 PTS
G) Brian Elliott, Phi, (30% owned): 11 GP, 4 Wins, .847 SV%
 
Top Ownership Decliners: 
 
What NHL players have seen their ownership drop the most in the month of March? Players who only dropped due to injury will not be included, focusing on the healthy players who dropped significantly.
 
1) Victor Olofsson, Buf, -33%: Most of Olofsson’s fantasy value is tied to his deployment with Jack Eichel, and if they’re not on the ice together, Victor is a drop.
 
2) Joe Thornton, Tor, -29%: Getting deployed on a line with Marner and Matthews inflated Thornton’s value, which tumbled as he scored 2 PTS in 14 GP.
  
3) John Gibson, Ana, -27%: Fantastic start to the season, but he only won 2 games in March while posting an .876 SV%. I was among the people who dropped him.
  
4) Carter Hart, Phi, -27%: The collapse of Flyers goaltending in March was astounding, especially someone who was previously believed to have such a bright future.
  
5) Rasmus Dahlin, Buf, -25%: Speaking of bright futures that took a dark turn in March, add Rasmus Dahlin to that list. The 20-year-old phenom scored at a 56-point pace in 2020, dropping to a 28-point pace in 2021. Blame the Sabres futility.
 
6) Jack Hughes, NJ, -24%: I’m still a believer in the long-term upside of Jack Hughes, who looked dynamic pre-Covid, then stopped scoring post-Covid.
  
7) Nick Ritchie, Bos, -22%: Ritchie was on fire in February thanks to deployment on the top Bruins power play, but those points dried up in March.
 
8) MacKenzie Blackwood, NJ, -22%: Blackwood and the Devils missed time with Covid, and the Devils goaltender was slow to recover upon their return.
  
9) Christian Dvorak, Ari, -24%: Tough month for Dvorak, who over-achieved in February then dropped down to 4 PTS in 15 GP in March.
 
10) Taylor Hall, Buf, -21%: People were confused when Taylor decided to take his talents to Buffalo, where he would presumably have a great season playing with Eichel then cash in next summer. Turns out he may have done nothing but harm to his long-term value.
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