My NHL gambling experiment ended the month of February
down a little over $3,000 which was actually an improvement from 28 days
earlier. Since we do not have legal single game betting in Canada, all my
wagers are made with Monopoly money in a spreadsheet using William Hill or
BetMGM odds online. My early strategy was largely dependent on making
increasingly big bets on heavy favorites to beat bad teams, relying on the puckline
-1.5 goals against the worst teams, but that strategy can lead to big swings in
a negative direction when the upsets start happening. Pucklines -1.5 performed
poorly in February, especially when the talent gap between opponents is
smaller. In March, if you bet every home favorite -1.5 goals, you would have
banked over $1400.
My own betting season had big swings and volatility
early in the campaign, but shifted to a more conservative strategy around
mid-February. That included shifting more bets to underdogs +1.5, though I did
not completely abandon the -1.5 which is still one of my better categories when
it comes to profiting from the league’s worst teams (though it’s becoming a bet
you only want to make on home teams). Looking at the chart above, I invested $23.6K
on +1.5 and $14.8K on -1.5 in March. It would have produced better results to
shift more money away from visitor +1.5 into home -1.5 pucklines. I
over-performed the market rate for home moneyline, but significantly under-performed
on home -1.5. I’ve still been smashing the -1.5 on Buffalo opponents, which has
paid big dividends (at least until the return of Linus Ullmark). My strategy
shifted to a greater quantity of smaller bets, often taking the underdog +1.5
when the teams are relatively evenly matched, though I did that too often when
dealing with road dogs.
Typically, what I’ll do is put 75% of my wager on the
safer outcome, then 25% on the higher payout option. In the case of favorites,
this means still making a small profit if they hit the moneyline, but getting
bonus money if they do win by 2 or more goals. This is less effective when you’re
dealing with a -300 or greater favorite. This strategy had mostly been effective
throughout most of late-February and March, that was until what I’m going to
call “red Saturday”. By bedtime on Friday, March 26, my betting accounts were
at $1436, my highest point since the first week of the season. Betting was
almost starting to feel too easy. The next day there were 11 games and I logged
$3500 in wagers, picking 5 underdogs and 6 favorites. Bruins to beat the Sabres
-1.5 goals felt like a lock, it was not. I had the Jets, Islanders, and Sharks
to cover the puckline +1.5 goals, they did not. The Rangers were fresh off
blowing out the Flyers for the 2nd time, so I picked the Rangers to
win again, going against the “Blowout Redemption Theory”. Loser. I had Colorado
to beat Vegas, Tampa to beat Carolina, and Columbus to beat Detroit, all smart
picks that lost. That’s why many experts at sports betting avoid hockey. It’s
the nature of the beast.
I’m sure every bettor can recall similar stories,
where it felt like there was an unusual confluence of bad luck all striking on
the same day. Of course, I’ve had multiple days where I won nearly all my bets,
so those days can balance each other out. My Sunday wasn’t any better, losing
another 5 of 7 bets, deflating my portfolios by nearly $4000 over one bloody
weekend. Red Saturday became “the Red Weekend”, which felt like being at a
Stark wedding. Back-to-back upset wins by Detroit over Columbus cost me dearly,
both Calvin Pickard starts with their top goalie injured. Under no circumstances
would I place penny on Calvin Pickard to win. The New Jersey Devils shutout the
Boston Bruins 1-0, burning another $500. The only silver lining there was that
I had started MacKenzie Blackwood on one of my fantasy teams.
The “Red Weekend” hit right before the end of March,
as I limp across the finish line, still up for the month but down for the
season. If you’ve been betting $100 on the underdog moneyline for every game
this season, you’d be down over $8000 by the end of March. This has been the
year of the favorites, but the underdogs are slowly starting to reverse the
trend, and seem to be hitting with greater frequency as the season heads
towards the home stretch.
View my betting blog posts from March:
My Best Teams To Bet On
In March:
1) Washington Capitals, (+$2,066)
2) New York Islanders, (+$1,818)
2) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$1,793)
3) Nashville Predators, (+1,385)
4) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,228)
5) Vegas Golden Knights, (+$703)
My Worst Teams To Bet
On In March:
1) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$2,072)
2) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$1,247)
3) Boston Bruins, (-$1,121)
4) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$988)
5) Columbus Blue Jackets, (-$852)
My Best Teams To Bet
Against In March:
1) Buffalo Sabres, (+$3,575)
2) St. Louis Blues, (+$1,857)
3) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,648)
4) Dallas Stars, (+$1,025)
5) Toronto Maple Leafs, (+$441)
My Worst Teams To Bet
Against In March:
1) Ottawa Senators, (-$1,910)
2) Columbus Blue Jackets, (-$1,606)
3) Detroit Red Wings, (-$1,457)
4) Colorado Avalanche, (-$1,167)
5) Vancouver Canucks, (-$1,138)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
The team-by-team
gambling power rankings are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to
win or lose for the entire season (not just March). They are my own personal
power rankings, reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games.
These aren’t necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few
instances of good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries
for a deeper understanding of the replicability. If you are going to be betting
on hockey in the near future, it may help you to read about my own personal success
and failure over the month. For an unbiased look, I will include an overall
rank of account balances if you bet each team to win or lose every game and
every puckline, providing monolithic results of betting both sides consistently
team by team.
LR = League Rank
1) Buffalo
Sabres, ($5,102):
Previous Rank: 6
March Win-Loss Record: 1-15
Bet On: 0 ($0)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,886
(LR: 31)
Bet Against: 16 ($3,575)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,103 (LR: 3)
The collapse of the
Buffalo Sabres began in February, and I was on the bandwagon early, picking
them to lose almost exclusively. A majority of each bet was placed on the
moneyline, then a smaller wager was placed on the puckline -1.5; such that even
if their opponent won by a goal, I’d still come out ahead (which is a strategy
I’ve been applying to more teams than just the Sabres), but ultimately would
have made greater profits putting 100% of my wagers on the -1.5. In either
case, shorting the Sabres was easily my best bet in March. But buyer beware,
the profitability of the -1.5 bet against Buffalo took a hit when Linus Ullmark
returned from injury on March 27. It’s now a more perilous proposition.
2) Vancouver
Canucks, ($4,213):
Previous Rank: 1
March Win-Loss Record: 8-5
March Bet On: 4 (-$190)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $243 (LR: 12)
March Bet Against: 9 (-$1,138)
If you bet against them
every game ML+PL: -$304 (LR: 19)
The futility of the
Canucks kept me afloat in February, exploiting their 2 wins in 13 games for a
big profit that put my whole month in the black. Without Canucks games, I’d
have come out of January and February with $5,542 less, down nearly $10K total.
This team’s losing ways did not extend into March, and I was very quick to
sniff out that this was about to happen (see my Tweets) because of the
increasingly outstanding play of Thatcher Demko. Good goalies are a huge factor
in hockey betting, so paying attention to who is hot or not is an absolute
must. The team had a devastating Covid outbreak to start the month of April, so
all bets are off for this team in the immediate future.
3) Edmonton
Oilers, ($4,003):
Previous Rank: 2
March Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Bet On: 8 ($151)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$273
(LR: 20)
Bet Against: 6 ($411)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$9 (LR: 12)
My early season
success betting on the Oilers felt unsustainable, but the luck continued into
March, both when picking them to win or lose (the rate of return did shrink).
I’m still waiting for goaltender Mike Smith to turn back into a pumpkin, but he’s
sustained his quality play for several weeks. Be careful betting money on Mikko
Koskinen to win, that was a losing bet in March. Edmonton had a winning record
for the month, but were generally ineffective at covering pucklines, hence why
picking them every game would have resulted in losses. Their best category by far
in March was home moneyline. Twice they were underdogs at home against Toronto,
which the Leafs won by a combined score of 9-1 (the Oilers won every other home
game). You would have banked a big prize on those Toronto pucklines.
4) Pittsburgh
Penguins, (+$2,881):
Previous Rank: 3
March Win-Loss Record: 12-4
Bet On: 13 ($1,793)
If you bet on them every
game ML+PL: $1,180 (LR: 1)
Bet Against: 3 (-$860)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,560 (LR: 31)
While most of my
early season Penguins profits were the product of picking them to lose, my
strategy shifted once Tristan Jarry started stopping pucks. In March the Pens
were among the stingiest defensive teams, and that’s reflected in their record.
They were officially the best team to wager for the month, and the worst team
to bet against. I made 3 bets on Pens opponents to win and went 0-3. This team
has been near the top of my power rankings since day 1 of the 2021 season,
though my strategy when selecting wagers has shifted dramatically since
January. $1,100 of my Penguins profits came -1.5 goals on the puckline. I even
banked nearly $800 picking them to win on the road.
5) New York
Islanders, ($2,025):
Previous Rank: 14
March Win-Loss Record: 11-4
Bet On: 12 ($1,818)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $405 (LR: 8)
Bet Against: 3 ($387)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$985 (LR: 30)
From mid-Feb to
mid-March, I won 13 of 14 bets on Islanders games, a majority of those on them
to win. They charged up my power rankings after a disappointing start. They’re a
team you want to bet at home, but gravitate to their opponents on the road,
unless it’s a bad team. The best Isles bet to make in March was -1.5 goals at
home, and the worst bet was -1.5 goals on the road. They’re covering pucklines
as home favorites, but not as road faves. Traditionally they’re a good team to
take +1.5 when they’re underdogs, as they tend to be strong defensively. It
doesn’t matter which goalie is starting.
6) Vegas
Golden Knights, ($1,362):
Previous Rank: 9
March Win-Loss Record: 12-5
Bet On: 10 ($703)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $284 (LR: 10)
Bet Against: 7 (-$192)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$609 (LR: 24)
At one point in March,
I had made 7 consecutive successful bets on Knights games, and some of those
were on Minnesota to win, then lost 5 of 6 bets to close out the month. I’ve
mostly been picking Vegas to win this season, but did take Minnesota 4 times
(winning 3 of those bets) and also put some money on Colorado. Vegas was one of
the worst teams to bet against, and my lack of faith ultimately cost me some
money. The Knights lost Robin Lehner to injury, but fortunately had a Vezina
calibre goalie to replace him. When Lehner returned, Fleury’s play started to
slip. It’s been advantageous to have 2 elite goaltenders, despite the salary cap
constraints it imposes.
7) Arizona
Coyotes, ($1,357):
Previous Rank: 21
March Win-Loss Record: 7-8
Bet On: 6 ($1,228)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $57 (LR: 16)
Bet Against: 9 ($1,648)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$37 (LR: 13)
The Coyotes have
spent most of the season as one of those hard to predict middling teams who
can’t consistently defeat inferior opponents, but are also a danger to upset
superior adversaries. Their fortunes in March took a hit when they lost goaltender
Darcy Kuemper for an extended period, then even lost Antti Raanta for a pair of
games. I happened to wager on the correct outcome in 12 of 15 March games,
leading the Coyotes to surge up my rankings. I’ve had success picking the
Coyotes to win on the moneyline at home and also taking them +1.5 goals on the
road. But ultimately most of the credit for my success was taking the Minnesota
Wild 4 times -1.5 goals that were all successful.
8) Winnipeg
Jets, ($1,547):
Previous Rank: 5
March Win-Loss Record: 9-8
Bet On: 14 ($139)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $553 (LR: 5)
Bet Against: 3 (-$555)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$409 (LR: 21)
Betting the Jets to
cover +1.5 goals as underdogs was among my better picks in February when the
option was available (which it often is), though the rate of return waned in
March. The team still doesn’t get much love from oddsmakers, which is the main
reason that I’ve been betting them this often (13 times in 16 March games). The
team was not as impressive in March, yet I managed to lose a significant sum
the 3 times I put my money on their opponent. They’re a dangerous team to bet
against, which tends to happen when you’ve got the reigning Vezina trophy
winner.
9) Calgary
Flames, ($1,036):
Previous Rank: 8
March Win-Loss Record: 6-9
Bet On: 7 (-$511)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$758 (LR: 26)
Bet Against: 8 ($259)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $422 (LR: 7)
The Flames were in a
free fall when they fired their coach, most notably for losses to the Ottawa
Senators which also cost me a few bets. Once Darryl Sutter took control, my
action shifted to a more pro-Calgary direction, which worked out, at least
initially. The second half of March, I was mostly betting whichever team was
the underdog +1.5, whether that was Calgary or their opponent. That strategy
has had mixed results. It would have been smarter to just bet Calgary’s
opponent as often as possible, especially when the Flames are visitors. All my
success betting the Flames to lose came when they were on the road.
10) Philadelphia
Flyers, ($643):
Previous Rank: 4
March Win-Loss Record: 6-11
Bet On: 8 (-$1,247)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1748
(LR: 30)
Bet Against: 9 ($318)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,236 (LR: 2)
I’ve been effective
at betting on Flyers games dating back to 2019, though most of that time was
spent staking them as winners. It did take me some time to adjust to this Flyers
crash landing, but once it became clear that their goalies could not stop
hockey pucks, my money quickly shifted to the opposition. They had 2 games
against the Rangers where they lost by a combined score of 17-3, then were
blown out by the Sabres who had lost 18 straight games. There is still plenty
of talent on this roster, and they’re good enough to beat any team any given
night. It’s just hard to trust teams who can’t keep the puck out of their net.
11) Washington
Capitals, ($551):
Previous Rank: 24
March Win-Loss Record: 11-3
Bet On: 10 ($2,066)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $472 (LR: 7)
Bet Against: 4 ($199)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$809 (LR: 26)
The Caps finished
January near the bottom of my power rankings, and slowly worked their way back
up. At one point in February, I was down nearly $2000 on Caps games (it’s
complicated) before going streaking with 14 successful bets in 15 games (mostly
on Washington to win). Home moneyline has been my best bet (followed closely by
road moneyline), as their aging core of star players continue to produce
results. Somebody forgot to tell Alex Ovechkin that he’s getting old. My 4 bets
against the Caps also produced profit, which included the Bruins moneyline twice
in Boston, and the Rangers +1.5 twice in Washington.
12) St. Louis
Blues, ($331):
Previous Rank: 20
March Win-Loss Record: 5-9
Bet On: 3 (-$433)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,563
(LR: 29)
Bet Against: 11 ($1,857)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,421 (LR: 1)
From the last week of
February to mid-March, I was able to string together 9 consecutive bets won on
St. Louis games, though mostly picking the Blues to lose. The Blues cost me
dearly in early Feb, which taught me a lesson not to trust Jordan Binnington
with my fictional money. That lesson proved very profitable in March, as my
fictional bank account swelled with bets on Blues to lose. They were in fact a
more profitable team to bet against in March than Buffalo, as the oddsmakers
still believed they were good, pumping up the rate of return on their losses.
13) Tampa Bay
Lightning, ($255):
Previous Rank: 10
March Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 13 (-$578)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$374
(LR: 23)
Bet Against: 3 ($41)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $310 (LR: 9)
The Tampa Bay
Lightning continue to be one among the NHL’s elite teams, but it’s important to
remember that they’re not as good as the previous 2 seasons with Nikita
Kucherov lighting up the scoring leaderboard. Their cumulative winning
percentage has been trending down, but the payout being offered on Tampa wins
has also been shrinking. The biggest drain on my Lightning dividends in March
was a trip to Detroit in the first half of the month, where they failed to
cover the puckline -1.5 in both games, losing 6-4 in game 2. Lightning puckline
versus the Wings should be a lock, and I’m quite certain the sportsbooks raked
in a big profit on those contests. If you bet them to win every ML + PL in
March, you lost $374. Yet as defending champs, they’re unquestionably still one
of the most popular teams to bet.
14) San Jose
Sharks, ($223):
Previous Rank: 13
March Win-Loss Record: 8-9
Bet On: 6 ($304)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $609 (LR: 4)
Bet Against: 11 (-$565)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$543 (LR: 22)
The Sharks have been
among the better teams to bet in games following losses, which could just be a
coincidence, or it shows they get fired up to redeem themselves after losing.
I’ve been managing a significant profit when picking the Sharks to lose for the
past 18 months, but they’re outperforming my expectations more frequently
recently, and have cost me a few bets. They’ve displayed a proficiency for
defeating the lesser opponents in that division, boosted by the outstanding
play of Martin Jones, who managed to escape purgatory and re-establish his
relevancy. Sharks to win is no longer a losing wager, but the books are still
pricing their lines as if they are losers. Perhaps they’re expecting the clock
to strike midnight on Jones.
15) Dallas
Stars, ($47):
Previous Rank: 18
March Win-Loss Record: 5-12
Bet On: 1 (-$250)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,216
(LR: 28)
Bet Against: 16 ($1,025)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $799 (LR: 4)
Nearly all of my
wagers on Dallas games in March were on the Stars opponents, especially when Dallas
was favored, I’d take the other team +1.5 goals (Dallas was the favorite in a
majority of their games). They wen 5-12 in the month, so taking their opponents
was mostly an effective strategy, though their upset win against Tampa did cost
me $500. Some pundits think Dallas is an under-achieving team that was recently
in the Cup final who will reverse their misfortune, and supporting evidence has
started to emerge in early April. My strategy may soon be shifting back to
picking the Stars to win.
16) Chicago
Blackhawks, (-$353):
Previous Rank: 11
March Win-Loss Record: 5-9
Bet On: 10 (-$566)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$681
(LR: 25)
Bet Against: 4 (-$410)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $344 (LR: 8)
When the Hawks
exceeded their expectations in late-January and early February, it cost me
dearly, being late to figure out they were decent. Once that was clear, I went
on a nice run of Hawks bets, winning 8 out of 10 into the first week of March.
Then they started to struggle against Dallas and Florida, which I bet Chicago
+1.5 goals. The secret appears to be the home-road splits, as they are a much
better team when playing in Chicago. That’s where most of my losses have been,
betting them to win on the road (-$550) or lose at home (-$1000). You made a decent
profit if you bet them to lose every game in March.
17) Los
Angeles Kings, (-$966):
Previous Rank: 19
March Win-Loss Record: 5-9
Bet On: 7 ($30)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$279
(LR: 22)
Bet Against: 7 (-$182)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $60 (LR: 11)
My first four Kings
bets in March were a success, and they’re a team that I’ve liked +1.5 goals against
their lesser divisional opponents, which has produced $500 in profit at home
and $500 in losses on the road. They’re a team that has strongly defined
home/road splits and are a better bet in their home arena. They had a pair of
upset wins against Vegas that cost me $1000. Had it not been for those 2 games,
my Kings profits would have been substantial in March. In net, Cal Petersen posted
a .920 SV% in March, while Jonathan Quick was at .875.
18) Nashville
Predators, (-$1,070):
Previous Rank: 30
March Win-Loss Record: 9-7
Bet On: 9 ($1,385)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $758 (LR: 3)
Bet Against: 7 ($365)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$930 (LR: 29)
The Predators have
been slowly working their way out of my doghouse, as I won a majority of my
Preds bets in March. They had mostly been a bad team early in 2021, and that’s
reflected in the line offerings. The team got hot towards the end of March, on
the back of outstanding goaltending by Juuse Saros. Roman Josi missed some action,
but returned right around the time the heater began. They’re frisky and
provided strong returns for anyone who jumped on the bandwagon early (like me).
Most of my success came from betting the Preds at home, but they’ve also been a
profitable pick on the road.
19) Ottawa
Senators, (-$1,179):
Previous Rank: 7
March Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 7 (-$570)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $247 (LR: 11)
Bet Against: 6 (-$1,910)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$606 (LR: 23)
The first two months of
the season produced significant volatility in my Ottawa Senators betting
portfolio, after the Sens were my best team to bet against in January. It’s
been a rough ride since then, as they are producing too many upsets to be
consistently profitable picking as losers. They tend to be extreme underdogs,
devaluing the rate of return on their opponents. There has been a substantial
gap between their home-road splits, and that’s reflected in my own betting
losses; most of which has come betting on their opponents in Ottawa for home
games, or taking the Sens +1.5 goals on the road. Note to self.
20) Boston
Bruins, (-$1,313):
Previous Rank: 15
March Win-Loss Record: 6-7
Bet On: 9 (-$1,121)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$806
(LR: 27)
Bet Against: 4 ($191)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $550 (LR: 6)
The Bruins looked to
be among the NHL’s best teams early in the schedule, but began showing weakness
as more games were played. I had more success picking their opponents to win in
March, as they suffered some embarrassing upsets, including getting shutout at
home by Scott Wedgewood and Keith Kinkaid 6 days apart (which combined to cost
me $1000). Betting Boston to win at home had been a very reliable investment,
but that’s where most of my losses came in March. If those 2 shocking shutout
losses at home had not happened, my Bruins balance for the month of March would
have been positive.
21) Florida
Panthers, (-$1,474):
Previous Rank: 22
March Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 4 (-$46)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $388 (LR: 9)
Bet Against: 12 ($109)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$678 (LR: 25)
The Panthers have
been a good team and my biggest problem has been not picking them to win often
enough. They have tended to be favored, and I’m often tempted by their
opponents +1.5 goals, but that hasn’t been a profitable strategy. They were
starting to get contender buzz on some media platforms, until getting hit with
some tough injuries. They missed Selke Candidate Aleks Barkov for 2 weeks, then
as Barkov was nearing return, top defenseman Aaron Ekblad suffered a leg injury
that knocked him out for the season. If you thought that might hurt the team,
guess again, as they haven’t lost since the injury occurred (as of the moment I’m
writing this).
22) New York
Rangers, (-$1,846):
Previous Rank: 26
March Win-Loss Record: 9-7
Bet On: 7 ($443)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $927 (LR: 2)
Bet Against: 9 (-$35)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$910 (LR: 28)
After struggling with
Rangers games in February, I managed to produce a profit on the blueshirts in
March, winning 9 of my first 12 bets. They faced an extended period without
their best player Artemi Panarin or their best goalie Igor Shesterkin, and
still managed to find a way to win hockey games. Now that both have returned,
there is good value on picking the Rangers to win. If you bet $100 on them to
win every game in March (moneyline and puckline), you won nearly $1000, which
ranks them 2nd in the NHL for the month. Betting against the Rangers
is dangerous.
23) Columbus
Blue Jackets, (-$1,854):
Previous Rank: 12
March Win-Loss Record: 6-8
Bet On: 9 (-$852)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $128 (LR: 14)
Bet Against: 5 (-$1,606)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$114 (LR: 15)
My performance
betting the Blue Jackets has been cyclical, which does parallel their output on
the ice. I’m probably betting them too often for a team that has not performed
well in the standings, but most of those picks are +1.5 goals. It’s not a product
of loving the roster, but more so the line value. Unfortunately, my BJ strategy
was an abject failure in March, whether that was picking them to win or lose
(they were a middle of the pack team in both categories). They suffered
back-to-back upset defeats to the Detroit Red Wings near the end of March that
cost me $1000. Then they followed that up with a road win against Tampa that
cost me another $500. That’s $1500 lost on bad beats.
24) Carolina
Hurricanes, (-$2,023):
Previous Rank: 17
March Win-Loss Record: 10-4
Bet On: 9 (-$988)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $197 (LR: 13)
Bet Against: 5 (-$498)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$396 (LR: 20)
People keep telling
me that Carolina is a good team and I’ve been mostly picking them to win, but
that has not translated into gambling profit. They had a 3-game losing streak
near the end of the month against Detroit and Columbus that cost me $1500.
They’re a good straight up moneyline team who are less successful on the
puckline. Betting their opponents +1.5 goals has been paying out. Overall, in
March, I lost $710 picking the Hurricanes to win at home ($1000 in back-to-back
home losses to Columbus), then losing an additional $700 betting their
opponents in Carolina ($500 of that on Tampa). I’m having horrible luck betting
games that take place in Carolina specifically.
25) Toronto
Maple Leafs, (-$2,141):
Previous Rank: 16
March Win-Loss Record: 7-7
Bet On: 7 (-$2,072)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$451 (LR: 24)
Bet Against: 7 ($441)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $691 (LR: 5)
The Leafs showed
flashes of brilliance in the first half of the season, but also collected a
concerning number of upset losses. They were the favorites in nearly every
game, and my attempts to bet their opponents +1.5 produced a net gain in
Toronto, but a net loss when the Leafs were on the road. Most of my winnings on
Leaf games came from picking their opponents +1.5 goals in Toronto (thank you
Winnipeg and Edmonton); while most of my Leaf losses came from betting them moneyline
+ puckline on the road (f** you Vancouver and Ottawa). In March the Leafs
played 4 games against Ottawa and Vancouver (all on the road), which cost me a
combined $2500 in losses (where they won once on the moneyline and were shutout
on the puckline -1.5 goals).
26) Minnesota
Wild, (-$2,217):
Previous Rank: 28
March Win-Loss Record: 9-7
Bet On: 15 ($68)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1
(LR: 18)
Bet Against: 1 ($53)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$238 (LR: 18)
It took some time
before I was able to figure out that the Wild are a good team, and their
absence due to Covid complicated my outlook. Once I got onto the right side of
the Wild bets, we started making crazy bank together (8 of my first 9 Wild bets
in March were winners). The turning point came when they got hammered in
back-to-back road games against Colorado, where I was invested in Minnesota +1.5
goals (which felt like a bargain at the time given the line value). That’s when
all those profits started to get paid back, as they failed to cover -1.5 back-to-back
at home against the lowly Ducks then lost back-to-back road games against San
Jose. I limped across the finish line to close out March, barely ahead on this
team for the month.
27) New
Jersey Devils, (-$2,469):
Previous Rank: 27
March Win-Loss Record: 6-11
Bet On: 3 (-$79)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$88
(LR: 19)
Bet Against: 14 (-$101)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$170 (LR: 16)
Despite winning 10 of
12 Devils bets at one point in March, they managed to pull off a pair of upset
victories against the Penguins that forced me to pay most of that money back
(the Wedgewood shutout in Boston also cost me a large bet). My performance
should be much greater on New Jersey games. They’ve not been a good team, but
exploiting that has been easier said than done. They’ve orchestrated too many
upsets to make a reliable profit betting their opponents. But that doesn’t mean
they’re a good pick to win. You would have lost money whether you bet them to
win every game or lose every game.
28) Anaheim Mighty
Ducks, (-$2,642):
Previous Rank: 31
March Win-Loss Record: 5-11
Bet On: 6 (-$77)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$275
(LR: 21)
Bet Against: 10 ($311)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $142 (LR: 10)
It took me some time
before I was willing to fully grasp John Gibson’s fall from his hot start. The
Ducks had several home games in the first half of March where I took Anaheim
+1.5 goals because there was good value on the line. Gibson was terrible and on
one of my fantasy teams. The collapse was happening before my eyes, and I could
not allow myself to believe it was real. For most of the season they’ve been
one of those teams that I’m losing money whether I’m betting them to win or lose.
Most especially, they seem to always cover +1.5 when I’m betting their opponent
-1.5, but get blown out every time I bet them to cover +1.5. It genuinely feels
like my bet affects the outcome of the game. This feels entirely causal. From January
to the end of March, I lost $1000 betting Anaheim +1.5 goals (mostly at home)
and burned $1500 betting Duck opponents -1.5 goals (mostly on the road). That’s
my Duck season in a nutshell.
29) Montreal
Canadiens, (-$3,125):
Previous Rank: 25
March Win-Loss Record: 6-6
Bet On: 2 (-$324)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $33 (LR: 17)
Bet Against: 10 (-$886)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$191 (LR: 17)
My ability to
incorrectly predict the outcome of Montreal Canadiens games is astounding, as
the tradition established in January and February spilled over to March. They
win when I pick them to lose, and visa versa. The obvious solution should be to
pick the opposite outcome of what I’m expecting to happen, but if this is a
causal relationship, I may need to surrender to coin flipping (sorry, as an
ex-goalie, I’m freakishly superstitious). The Habs were favored in 11 of 12
games, and produced a profit if you regularly bet them -1.5 goals, both at home
and on the road. Unfortunately, I lost over $1200 betting their opponents +1.5
goals (mostly on Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Ottawa).
30) Detroit
Red Wings, (-$3,603):
Previous Rank: 23
March Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 5 (-$538)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $99 (LR: 15)
Bet Against: 8 (-$1,457)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$38 (LR: 14)
The Red Wings are my
favorite team, and they suck. Unfortunately for people betting them to lose,
they’ve improved on last season and are capable of delivering upsets. I was
hammered on my Wings bets in the first half of March, which were mostly bets on
their opponents to win. I’m a “Team Tank” pessimist who has been shorting them
regularly, a strategy that has cost me dearly. The profits for their losses
have not been nearly enough to overcome the cost of their wins, especially
versus Tampa and Columbus. We’ll see if they unload half their roster at the
trade deadline. Hopefully that will hurt their productivity and help me recover
some of this lost money (and get a higher draft pick).
31) Colorado
Avalanche, (-$3,661):
Previous Rank: 29
March Win-Loss Record: 12-5
Bet On: 10 (-$-60)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $528 (LR: 6)
Bet Against: 7 (-$1,167)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$835 (LR: 27)
I’ve struggled with
the Avalanche this year, betting them too heavy early, then losing my
confidence in their talent and taking their opponents +1.5 goals more
regularly. Neither worked. They struggled when I was a believer, then surged
when I became a skeptic. After their dismantling of the Minnesota Wild, I’ll
likely be picking the Avs to win almost exclusively going forward, barring any
major injuries. The biggest problem with Colorado is that they’re heavily
favored in nearly every game, which can make their opponents tempting choices
for the high payouts. Oddsmakers have nerfed the Avs payouts.
No comments:
Post a Comment