Saturday, September 25, 2021

Worst NHL Contracts 2021

2021 marks the 10th anniversary of my first annual worst NHL contracts list. The inaugural winner in 2011 was Vincent LeCavalier, who was in the 2nd year of the league’s very first cap circumventing long-term back dive. My tradition has always been to list the 15 best and 15 worst every year, but honestly, I could have done the 50 worst contracts and none would have looked out of place. To assist me in building these final rankings, I enlisted Hockey Twitter to answer a series of poll questions. San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson dethroned the defending champion (and teammate) Marc-Edouard Vlasic to capture the dubious title of league’s worst deal.


Here are the winners losers from my worst contracts list over the last decade.

2020: Winner: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, runner-up: Brent Seabrook
2019: Winner: Milan Lucic, runner-up: Brent Seabrook
2018: Winner: Zach Parise, runner-up: Bobby Ryan
2017: Winner: Bobby Ryan, runner-up: Zach Parise
2016: Winner: Andrew Ladd, runner-up: Zach Parise
2015: Winner: David Clarkson, runner-up: Nathan Horton
2014: Winner: David Clarkson, runner-up: Jordan Staal
2013: Winner: Roberto Luongo, runner-up: James Wisniewski
2012: Winner: Vincent LeCavalier, runner-up: Scott Gomez
2011: Winner: Vincent LeCavalier, runner-up: Wade Redden

Warning: Fans of the San Jose Sharks may not want to read any further, as this list may cause feelings of anxiety, hopelessness, and depression. It may be better for your mental health if you don’t proceed. Four Shark contracts qualified for this list, and it would have been 5 had Martin Jones not been bought out. There is an argument that Evander Kane belongs here as well, but I’m going to give him a pass for having one of his best statistical season in 2021. If he was trying to lose hockey games intentionally, it didn’t show up on the stat sheet.

 

1) Erik Karlsson, San Jose:


     2020 Rank: 11
     Age: 31
      Remaining Term: 6 years
      Cap Hit: $11.5M
      Signing GM: Doug Wilson, June 17, 2019

 

"I'm excited to continue the chase for the ultimate prize: the Stanley Cup"

- Erik Karlsson

When Erik Karlsson signed this ticket to become the highest paid defenseman in the salary cap era, most pundits recognized that it was a disaster waiting to happen. The Sharks had just acquired him for a fruitful playoff run, and thought their window to contend for a championship was wide open, but EK had been plagued with ankle problems for years. There was legit concern whether his ankle could hold up for an 8-year term. The price tag was heavily influenced by the package Drew Doughty inked in LA, but Karlsson established himself as the highest paid defenseman in the league. 

EK had managed to sustain at least a 70-point scoring pace for 4 consecutive seasons, at least until this contract started, when he posted his lowest scoring pace since 2011 as a sophomore. In 2021, this debacle went from bad to terrible, as he dropped from a 59-point pace to a 35-point pace. His salary should be half this price.


 

2) Jeff Skinner, Buffalo:

    2020 Rank: 4
    Age: 29
    Remaining Term: 6 years
    Cap Hit: $9M
    Signing GM: Jason Botterill, June 7, 2019
 
The Buffalo Sabres traded a package of prospects and picks to the Carolina Hurricanes to acquire Jeff Skinner with one year remaining on his previous contract. The winger had a career year playing with Jack Eichel, so GM Jason Botterill backed up the Brinks truck and kept him from going UFA with this monstrous offer. The following season, Skinner was booted off the Eichel line, which devastated his offensive output. Skinner ranked 4th on this list in 2020, but my concern at the time was that he’d be reunited with Eichel and lighting the fire once again. That concern feels like a distant memory in 2021, with Eichel suffering a serious neck injury that has eroded his relationship with management. 

Any hope of Skinner bouncing back to the production that earned him this contract is tied to Eichel’s fate. Over the first 112 games of this pact, Skinner has scored at a 27-point pace. The Buffalo Sabres are a train wreck, and carrying dead money like this will only hinder their recovery.


 

3) Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose:


    2020 Rank: 1
    Age: 34
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $7M
    Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1st 2017
 

“We’re thrilled we could get this extension done early and ensure one of the League’s top defensemen will remain in San Jose for the long term.”

– Doug Wilson

The 2020 Worst Contract champion was unseated by his teammate, falling to 3rd place in the process. When Vlasic signed this contract in 2017, he was a 30-point defenseman who played over 21 minutes per game. By year three of this treaty, he potted just 6 PTS in 51 games while averaging 17.5 minutes of ice time. We haven’t even reached the half-way point of the deal, and he’s already 34 years old with little chance of recovery. Karlsson is a better player at this stage of their respective careers, but Erik gets the nod atop this list because he’s making substantially more money, and for an extra year. 

If you simply asked me, who is the worst defenseman making over $6M per season, the answer is Vlasic and 2nd place is not close. This contract might be the biggest albatross weighing down the team’s success, because Vlasic’s teammates are all making greater offensive contributions, whereas mark is only worth about $1.5M.


 

4) Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida:


    Last Year Rank: 3
    Age: 32
    Remaining Term: 5 years
    Cap Hit: $10M
    Signing GM: Dale Talon, July 1st 2019

There have been few contracts in the NHL salary cap era that got this bad, this fast. There was no honeymoon period after the 2-time Vezina winner arrived in Florida, as he posted an .870 save percentage over his first 5 games. He had a history of slow starts, and was able to fight his way back up to .900 exactly when Covid prematurely ended the season. In 2021, he was slightly better registering a .906 SV% in the regular season, then bombed against Tampa in the playoffs with an .841. Sergei is the 2nd highest paid goalie in the league, $3M more than the 4th highest paid. 

The only reason any GM conceived of paying him this much was Carey Price pushing the ceiling higher in 2017. The real goalie ceiling should be $7M, some might even argue $6M, and Bobrovsky deserves less than that based on his performance. He has been below average, banking more than double the dough he’s been earning. This is a catastrophe.


 

5) Matt Duchene, Nashville:


    Last Year Rank: 13
    Age: 30
     Remaining Term: 5 years
     Cap Hit: $8M
     Signing GM: David Poile, July 1st, 2019

A love of country music was among the factors that drew Matt Duchene to Nashville, and given how this contract is playing out, I suspect David Poile may retroactively lament Duchene’s love of the genre. Matt was among the big prizes of the 2019 free agent class at age 28 after tying his career best 70 PTS in Ottawa. My expected free agent value algorithm priced that stat line at $7.9M, which is very close to his Nashville cap hit. It would have been fair value had Poile received a 70-point center, but that’s not what arrived at the airport. 

In year one his scoring rate would drop from 79 to 52, a catastrophic amount of decline to experience when the long-term agreement has only just begun. It was enough to earn Matt a spot on this list in 2020, but he would sink the bar even lower in 2021, when he scored just 31 PTS per 82 GP (which carries an expected free agent value of $1.4M). Duchene is now 30 years old and is $6.6M overpaid, with 5 years remaining.

 

6) Ryan Johansen, Nashville:


    Last Year Rank: 10
    Age: 29
     Remaining Term: 4 years
     Cap Hit: $8M
     Signing GM: David Poile, July 28, 2017

David Poile paid an enormous price to acquire Ryan Johansen from the Columbus Blue Jackets, shipping away Seth Jones. They had ample depth on defense and desperately needed offensive help down the middle. That was a costly but defensible transaction. Poile didn’t want to lose his new prize to unrestricted free agency in 2 years, so he signed Johansen to an 8-year pact that made him the 10th highest paid center in the NHL. Ryan was able to sustain his 60ish point pace for the first 2 years of the contract, before the decline started in 2019, falling to a 38-point pace by 2021. 

It looked like this team was on the path to ruin when goaltender Juuse Saros caught fire and carried them into the playoffs. That may have disguised the true state of the franchise, as they are perilously close to being a really bad team. It’s hard to start a rebuild with contracts like Johansen and Duchene on the books for 4-5 more years, making a combined $16M.


 

7) Logan Couture, San Jose:


    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 32
     Remaining Term: 6 years
     Cap Hit: $8M
     Signing GM: Doug Wilson, July 1, 2018

Logan received consideration for this list last year when he was still a 60-point player, but was ultimately deemed a disaster waiting to happen rather than current calamity. The 2021 season started reasonably strong for Logan Couture as the Sharks enjoyed some success against the weaker opponents in a weak division. But as the schedule wore on, the scoring started drying up. He would finish the season scoring at a 48-point pace, his weakest performance since he was a rookie. It’s hard to judge whether his decline is solely attributable to being on such a bad team, or whether he deserves a significant share of the blame for their futility. 

There have been rumours that he was injured in the 2nd half of the season, so it’s entirely plausible that he’ll charge quickly out of the gate in October. My first draft of this list, I wasn’t even 100% certain that Logan belonged in the top 15, but his performance in the polls cemented his worthiness.

 

8) Drew Doughty, Los Angeles:


    2020 Rank: 12
    Age: 31
     Remaining Term: 6 years
     Cap Hit: $11M
     Signing GM: Rob Blake, July 1st 2018

Drew Doughty has enjoyed a Hall of Fame level career with the Los Angeles Kings, but had been in decline when the 2021 season began. The defenseman experienced a resurgence in 2021, scoring at a 50-point pace in the pandemic shortened campaign. However, before we start planning a parade, 20 of his 34 PTS were against Anaheim, San Jose, and Arizona. Ergo, Drew only scored at a 37-point pace against the good teams in his division. He’s clearly still a good defenseman, but that $11M price tag is hard to swallow. 

When Drew signed this, it made him the highest paid defenseman in the NHL, a full $2M ahead of second place P.K Subban. He smashed through the D-man wage ceiling, and helped Erik Karlsson bank a big pay day in the process. But the poor performance of those contracts (especially Karlsson) may have depressed the market for elite defensemen, dropping the ceiling down to the $9.5M range.


 

9) Jamie Benn, Dallas:


    2020 Rank: 7
    Age: 32
     Remaining Term: 4 years
     Cap Hit: $9.5M
     Signing GM: Jim Nill, July 15, 2016

 

“They are f*cking horse-sh*t! I don’t know how else to put it.”

-Jim Lites

Jamie Benn was criminally underpaid on his previous contract, winning the Art Ross trophy in 2015. When you get a star player on a big discount for a period of several years, they become much less willing to take any kind of under-payment when unrestricted free agency approaches. All the money left on the table in the previous negotiation gets repaid in the next (see Drew Doughty). Benn scored at 79-point pace in year one of the new deal at age 28, but that all came crashing down in year two, when he potted just 53 PTS in 78 GP. 

The scoring decline would stabalize, and he was a quality player in the Stars run to the 2020 Stanley Cup finals. Benn does still have some gas in the tank, but $9.5M for 4 more years is obscene for a player who paced for 50 PTS over the past 2 seasons combined. One might say, it’s f*king horse-sh*t…


 

10) Carey Price, Montreal:


    2020 Rank: 9
    Age: 34
     Remaining Term: 5 years
     Cap Hit: $10.5M
     Signing GM: Marc Bergevin, July 2nd 2017

 

“I never thought about putting on another uniform. I just thought it'd be too weird, I guess."

– Carey Price

Carey Price may deserve an exemption from the 2021 list after carrying the Montreal Canadiens on his back to the Stanley Cup final, earning himself a spot in the Conn Smythe trophy conversation. Unfortunately, carrying all that dead weight on his back appears to have led to knee and hip injuries that could further complicate his future. Originally I had planned to exempt Price for at least 2021, but when Marc Bergevin decided to expose him in the expansion draft and Seattle wasn’t interested, it made me re-evaluate my position. 

My suspicion is that if he had gone to the UFA market this summer, he could have attracted bids in the $10M range (injuries notwithstanding). I’m not arguing that he wasn’t worth $10.5M in 2021. He was worth every penny. Where this is still problematic is the 5-year remaining term to a 34-year-old goalie with possible knee and hip issues.


 

11) Brent Burns, San Jose:


    2020 Rank: Unranked
    Age: 36
     Remaining Term: 4 years
     Cap Hit: $8M
     Signing GM: Doug Wilson, Nov 22, 2016

Brent Burns has aged better than many of his contemporaries, especially for a big man. He managed to score at a 68-point pace over the first 3 seasons of this contract, which is respectable output at an $8M price tag. However, that scoring pace has been in decline, with 2021 being his worst offensive season since 2012. Brent reached the half-way mark of the deal at age 36 and he’ll be 40 years old by the time this expires. 

Burns still had a $7M stat line in 2021, though part of that was because lack of depth on defense forced the Sharks to play him 26 minutes per game, the most of his entire career. He was used far more than he should have been, which artificially inflated his numbers. All those extra minutes certainly won’t help reverse his rate of decline at his age. The team is still getting some value out of Burns, but the remaining 4 years are fraught with peril. 


 

12) Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Vancouver:

 
    Last Year Rank: Unranked
    Age: 30
     Remaining Term: 6 years
     Cap Hit: $8.25M
     Signing GM: John Chayka, July 1, 2018

After this deal was signed, John Chayka announced his intention to build a contending team around their elite defenseman, but by the time the extension actually kicked in there were already rumours that the team was trying to unload the contract. His scoring rate has not significantly declined but his ice time and Corsi have dropped. I did not have OEL cracking the top 15 in my initial draft of this list; instead, he was slated for the “I’ve got my eye on you” section. The voters in my Twitter poll series ultimately made the decision for me, where Oliver solicited significant hate. 

Canucks GM Jim Benning was not deterred by the price tag, as he paid a significant price to acquire this contract from Arizona (he also skillfully dumped some dead money on the Yotes). Going to a new team could provide a spark to rejuvenate OEL's game, and if that happens, I’ll be blaming the democratic process for making this mistake.


 

13) Kevin Hayes, Philadelphia:

 
    Last Year Rank: Unranked
    Age: 29
     Remaining Term: 5 years
     Cap Hit: $7.14M
     Signing GM: Chuck Fletcher, June 18, 2019

Kevin Hayes scored 55 PTS immediately before reaching the UFA market (his previous career high was 49), and was paid a conspicuously high salary for a player with that type of production. Part of that bonus money was because he’s a 2-way center who can kill penalties and work the power play. The production justifies compensation in the $5M range or less and it’s debateable whether those extra intangibles are worth that much extra cheddar. The first year wasn’t terrible. The Flyers were great in the 2nd half and made noise in the playoffs. Hayes looked good. 

But year 2 was officially bad, as the team regressed and could not keep the puck out of their net.  Kevin scored at a 46-point pace despite getting the most power play time of his career (2.5 minutes per game). I would like to offer him my condolences on the loss of his brother, a sad and terrible tragedy. 


 

14) Kyle Okposo, Buffalo:


    Last Year Rank: 15
    Age: 33
     Remaining Term: 2 years
     Cap Hit: $6M
     Signing GM: Tim Murray, July 1, 2016

Kyle Okposo came to Buffalo as an unrestricted free agent in 2016 after Jack Eichel’s rookie season, and probably thought he was joining a team on the rise at the perfect time. Whether he thought he was joining a future contender, or just took the biggest offer on the table, the franchise trajectory was heading in a negative direction. Before hitting the UFA market, Okposo scored at a 66-point pace with the Islanders (which was down from 80 two years earlier). That point production justified a $6M salary, unfortunately, his scoring pace over the first 5 years with the Sabres has been 57, 47, 30, 30, 30 while being paid like a 65-point producer. 

There is light at the end of the tunnel, with only 2 years left. It should be noted that Kyle did end up in the ICU after a concussion near the end of his first season with Buffalo, and was not the same player upon his return.


 

15) Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota:

 
    Last Year Rank: Unranked
    Age: 31
     Remaining Term: 6 years
     Cap Hit: $7.57M
     Signing GM: Bill Guerin, Sept 14, 2019

Jared Spurgeon is still a good defenseman that any General Manager would love to have at the right price. His scoring rate and ice time has been in decline since 2018, but has yet to reach a catastrophic level. Spurgeon’s 2021 stat line translates into an expected free agent salary in the $6M range, so while he’s still overpaid, the size of the overpayment is defensible. 

The problem is, he’s 31 years old with 6 years remaining on his deal. That’s why the 3 consecutive seasons of statistical decline is so concerning. 2021 was only year one of a 7-year pact. Perhaps this is more of a “disaster waiting to happen” than a “current catastrophe”, but the size of the remaining risk is enormous. There are parallels with the Vlasic contract. The Minnesota Wild have to hope that Spurgeon’s career does not follow the same trajectory as Vlasic.


 

Dishonorable Mentions:

 (in no particular order)

· Jacob Trouba, Rangers, 5 more yrs @ $8M:
· Evgeny Kuznetsov, Washington, 4 more yrs @ $7.8M:
· Charlie Coyle, Boston, 5 more yrs @ $5.25M:
· Jakob Silfverberg, Anaheim, 3 more yrs @ $5.25M:
· Jason Zucker, Pittsburgh, 2 more yrs @ $5.5M:
· Milan Lucic, Calgary, 2 more yrs @ $6M:
· Andrew Ladd, Arizona, 2 more yrs @ $5.5M:
· Matt Murray, Ottawa 3 more yrs @ $6.25M:
· Jonathan Quick, Los Angeles, 2 more yrs @ $5.8M:
· Mike Matheson, Pittsburgh, 5 more yrs @ $4.8M:
· James Van Riemsdyk, 2 more yrs @ $7M:
· Michael Ferland, Vancouver, 2 more yrs @ $3.5M:
· Jonathan Toews, Chicago, 2 more yrs @ $10.5M:
· Tyler Myers, Vancouver, 3 more yrs @ $6M:
· Adam Henrique, Anaheim, 3 more yrs @ $4.8M:
· Anders Lee, Islanders, 5 more yrs @ $7M:
· Jakub Voracek, Columbus, 2 more yrs @ $8.25M:
· Brady Skjei, Carolina, 3 more yrs @ $5.25M:
· Evgenii Dadonov, Vegas, 2 more yrs @ $5M:
· Jake Gardiner, Carolina, 2 more yrs @ $4.1M:
· Jonathan Drouin, Montreal, 2 more yrs @ $5.5M:
· Zack Kassian, Edmonton, 3 more yrs @ $3.2M:
· Shea Weber, Montreal, 5 more yrs @ $7.86M:

 

I’ve Got My Eye On You:

A few of these guys have already begun to decline, others are entering the crosshairs of Father Time. It may not happen this year, but everyone below is a future contender for Worst contracts list.

(in no particular order)

 

· Anze Kopitar, Los Angeles, 3 more yrs @ $10M:
· T.J Oshie, Washington, 4 more yrs @ $5.75M:
· Tyler Seguin, Dallas, 6 more yrs @ $9.85M:
· Mats Zuccarelo, Minnesota, 3 more yrs @ $6M:
· Chris Kreider, Rangers, 6 more yrs @ $6.5M:
· Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas, 6 more yrs @ $8.8M:
· Nicklas Backstrom, Washington, 4 more yrs @ $9.2M: 
· Evander Kane, San Jose, 4 more yrs @ $7M:
· Blake Wheeler, Winnipeg, 3 more yrs @ $8.25M:
· Brayden Schenn, St, Louis, 7 more yrs @ $6.5M:
· Cam Atkinson, Philadelphia, 4 more yrs @ $5.88M:
· John Tavaras, Toronto, 4 more yrs @ $11M:
· Clayton Keller, Arizona, 7 more yrs @7.15M:
· Jacob Markstrom, Calgary, 5 more yrs @6M:
 

It Will All be Over Soon:

 

· Mikko Koskinen, Edmonton
· Loui Eriksson, Arizona
· Frans Nielsen, Detroit
· PK Subban, New Jersey
· Danny Dekeyser, Detroit
· Thomas Hickey, Islanders

 

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