Welcome to my Week 1 NHL Betting Report. Starting this season, I’ll be publishing weekly betting reports featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you’d like to know where I left off last season, check out my April betting report.
The 2021/22 season kicked off with Pittsburgh visiting Tampa, and the Penguins kicked me right in the ass. The Pens were missing Crosby, Malkin, and Guentzel travelling to Tampa to face one of the league’s best teams at home. It certainly seemed to be a slam dunk, so I laid $500 on both the TBL moneyline and puckline. Pittsburgh played gritty with tight team defense, and managed to upset the defending Stanley Cup champion. The big winner here were the Sportsbooks, as most of the public money had to be on the Lightning given their opponent was missing their 3 best players. On the bright side, there were 3 empty net goals that cashed in my bet on the over.
Overreacting to injury was the theme of my first few
days betting. Ovie was questionable for the Capitals-Rangers game, so I bet New
York but Ovie played and they blew out the visitors. Nathan MacKinnon missed
Colorado’s game against Chicago, but it didn’t matter. I took the Blackhawks
+1.5 goals and the Avs won 4-2. My season was off to a terrible start, at least
until the Arizona Coyotes made a trip to Columbus, Ohio. I made the same large
moneyline + puckline bet on the Blue Jackets, who hammered Arizona. I also made
a large bet on the over in that game, adding to my victory.
My Week 1 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100
on every outcome.
My opening week betting and tracking over-under totals was a success. In 34 games, over versus under was 16-16-2 with the unders paying out an extra penny per dollar bet based on the line offerings. I picked the correct outcome in 59% of games, with wagers between $100 and $300 (whereas my max bet on teams is $1,000). A disproportionate amount of my money wagered was laid on the overs, which was problematic in Leafs games (with $700 in losses). I managed to eek out a small profit on overs, but would have performed much better had those Toronto-Ottawa games been higher scoring. I’m outperforming the market rate, which may not be sustainable. We’ll see how it plays out, as I’m new to the world of overs and unders.
When it came to picking game outcomes, home teams won 68% of games. That was the other secret to my success in week 1. Home teams covered +1.5 goals 31 times in the first 34 GP. There were 11 cases of home teams listed as underdogs, and those 11 home dogs covered +1.5 goals all 11 times. My only problem was not betting it often enough, though I doubt that a 100% home dog puckline conversion rate is sustainable. Home teams starting fast happened both of the last 2 seasons, so I was prepared for this. In the previous 2 seasons over the first 7 days of the schedule, home teams won 57% of games. So, the home winning % we observed in week 1 is far higher than the previous 2 seasons. Eventually the road teams will start to win a greater share. I’m hesitant to predict when that will shift, as playing in empty buildings last season may have increased the performance boost of the home crowd. The past data may not be applicable.
Over the last 2 NHL seasons, home teams have produced much higher betting returns in the first month of the schedule, both moneyline and puckline (+1.5 & -1.5). Road teams killed me in January 2021 after a strong 2nd half the previous season. #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) October 11, 2021
My Team of the Week: Columbus Blue Jackets, +$1,608
My best team to bet in week 1 of the season was the Columbus Blue Jackets, but most of those winnings came in their blowout victory over Arizona. They only played one other game against Seattle, and I correctly took the BJs moneyline at home. My total winnings were topped up by successful over/under bets on both games. I’m not expecting the Blue Jackets to retain this top spot much longer because they won’t be playing the Coyotes every week. In describing my “best bets” below, I included “Coyotes to lose” instead of “Blue Jackets to win” because that’s what that was.
My Worst Team of the Week: Pittsburgh Penguins, -$746
Most of my Penguin losses came in their first game
against Tampa, as described in the opening paragraph. They played 2 more games,
each of which I bet the correct winner, but blew both my bets on the under. All
3 Penguins games hit on the over. My expectation was that Pittsburgh would have
trouble scoring and play tight defense, but instead they averaged 8 goals for +
against. The Pens are your current leader for total overs. Pittsburgh has
actually been one of my better teams to bet in previous seasons, both as
winners and losers. They currently sit dead last in my betting power rankings,
but I’m not expecting them to stay there.
2) Home underdogs +1.5 goals: +$1,206 2) Home underdogs +1.5 goals: $599
3) Home favorites moneyline: +$1,112 3) Islanders to lose ML+PL: $552
2) Road favorites moneyline: -$844 2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,100
3) Leafs over: -$700 3) Blackhawks to win ML+PL: -$455
My losing road favorite moneyline bets were Vegas over
LA, Montreal over Buffalo, so I consider those to be bad beats.
My Best Teams To Bet On
In Week 1: (over/under not included)
1) Columbus Blue Jackets, (+$1,273)
2) Florida Panthers, (+$513)
3) Detroit Red Wings, (+$341)
My Worst Teams To Bet
On In Week 1: (over/under not included)
1) Tampa Bay Lightning, (-$1,000)
2) Montreal Canadiens, (-$441)
3) Vegas Golden Knights, (-$391)
My Best Teams To Bet Against
In Week 1: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,499)
2) New York Islanders, (+$392)
3) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$313)
*The Lightning did win their next 2 games on the
road, but I had the home teams +1.5 goals and they both covered.
My Worst Teams To Bet
Against In Week 1: (over/under not included)
1) Pittsburgh Penguins, (-$688)
2) Buffalo Sabres, (-$500)
3) Los Angeles Kings, (-$500)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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