My NHL betting experiment ended the month of March down $3,387, and would sink even lower into the first week of April. The outlook was trending in a hopeless direction, when the Florida Panthers arrived on the scene to administer CPR and bring my betting portfolio back to life. They played 16 games in April, and I picked the correct outcome in 15 of them. Not all those bets were on the Panthers to win or cover; 3 were on the Carolina Hurricanes to win, 2 were on the Dallas Stars to cover +1.5 goals at home, and 2 were on Nashville to cover at home (one of those being the one bet I lost on Florida games this month). My total profit on all NHL games played in April was $3,014. My profits betting Panthers games was $3,186.
As I’ve said repeatedly in my previous monthly betting reports and blog entries, I’m not gambling with real money. We do not yet have legal single game betting in Canada, so I’m using pretend money in a spreadsheet. As a result, I’m not very conservative in my choices. The only thing incorrect picks actually costs me is pride, which also means I’m betting on every single game (where most professional hockey bettors only actually wager on a small number of games). In one account, I’m betting exactly $100 of fake money on every single match. In another account, I’m betting varying amounts (up to $700) on the games I like the most, which has produced a much higher rate of return.
It would be monetarily advantageous to only ante up for my favorite line offerings, and that would be my strategy if real money were at stake. The advantage of placing bets on every single outcome is to give myself a larger sample of picks from which to analyze my successes and failures. How do you know if you’re good at betting different teams if you’re not consistently trying to find every angle on every team? It’s much smarter to do that in a spreadsheet than it is to gamble with real money. That’s part of the reason why I don’t publish “best bets” every morning, because I’ve only been doing this since February 2019. I’m using trial and error to figure out the best strategies to deploy, tracking shifts in the market, and determining my own strengths and weaknesses as a handicapper.
If you are going to try your luck at hockey betting, it would be a good idea to try a similar experiment with fake bets to see if you might be good at the real thing. This is a terribly difficult endeavor to do successfully. I’ve got a degree in Mathematical Economics and have been making fake bets on every single NHL game over a 2-year period and am still struggling to break even. I can spend weeks slowly grinding up a bankroll, then have it all disappear over the course of a few days (read about the “red weekend” in my March Betting Report). I’ve been constructing different algorithms/models attempting to find winning angles, which can fit perfectly profitably to past data, but does not adapt to future outcomes. As sports betting becomes more commonplace (outside of Canada), the best thing you can do is occasionally put a few dollars on your favorite team to win every now and then, but large-scale betting like what I’ve been doing can be costly if not done properly.
The patterns that emerge each month don’t seem to be transferable to future months. In January home teams were winning big, but if you responded by betting heavy on the hosts in February, you would have lost your shirt. If you shifted to betting road teams as that trend hit its peak, you would have suffered devastating losses in March. Trying to quantify trends and turn that into future prognostication has been extraordinarily difficult. The only angle that I’ve had success with lately is picking the home squad when teams are playing consecutive games in the same city, and even that appears to be cyclical. Below is a chart showing the cumulative results betting each outcome in April.
I’ve been relying too heavily on instinct while also trying my luck on model building. Unfortunately, the unique nature of pandemic scheduling has moved the goalposts and weakened the predictive value of my 2019/20 data set. The good news is, teams are playing the same opponents so often that it might be the best year to wager on intuition. My success has been cyclical, posting gains over a 2–3-week period, only to get hammered over a bad few days, paying back those profits, before recovering and digging myself out of the hole. There have been discouraging moments, but enough success to feed my interest.
One trend that began to emerge in the first half of April was road dogs covering the puckline +1.5 goals, which also meant that home favorites struggled to cover -1.5. If you’ve been hammering road dogs +1.5 goals at every opportunity, you were down nearly $2000 at the beginning of April, but would have won $1500 over the first 2 weeks of the month (while bettors taking home faves -1.5 goals lost $2200 over that same span). The +1.5 trendlines then dipped negatively in the second half. The home moneyline was also bleeding large sums of money in early April, where it had been very profitable in the first 2 weeks of March. That also recovered in the second half of the month.
It’s difficult to conjure explanations as to why these home-road splits have been so decidedly cyclical and happening in clusters. Some of that appears to be tied to specific teams getting hot or cold before road trips or home games, like Boston and Carolina suffering some embarrassing defeats on home ice, with other squads like Detroit, Anaheim, or even Buffalo pulling off some big upsets from the visitors dressing room. Los Angeles, Montreal, and San Jose also dropped a cluster of home games. Five teams (16% of the league) accounted for 62% of the home losses over the first 2 weeks of April. Conversely, there was much more team by team diversity in the road upsets, and wasn’t produced by a small cluster of successful visitors.
Betting on the best starting goaltender any given game
has shown some promise with last year’s data, but it’s proving difficult to
execute in practice due to some teams being extraordinarily cryptic with naming
their starting goalie. This frustration often spills over into Fantasy hockey
when I’m deciding who I’m starting, especially in the case of Semyon Varlamov
and the New York Islanders. You often don’t know who is starting until 30
minutes before puck drop. Many of my bets are logged the previous night or
early in the morning, when it’s not known who the starter will be.
2) Ottawa Senators, (+$787)
3) Vegas Golden Knights, (+$560)
4) New York Rangers, (+$546)
5) Dallas Stars, (+$502)
2) Winnipeg Jets, (+$1,959)
3) New Jersey Devils, (+$1,769)
4) San Jose Sharks, (+$1,601)
5) Montreal Canadiens, (+$1,063)
The team-by-team gambling power rankings are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to win or lose for the entire season (not just April). They are my own personal power rankings, reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games. These aren’t necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few instances of good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries for a deeper understanding of the replicability. If you are going to be betting on hockey in the near future, it may help you to read about my own personal success and failure over the month. For an unbiased look, I will include an overall rank of account balances if you bet each team to win or lose every game and every puckline, providing monolithic results of betting both sides consistently team by team.
April Win-Loss Record: 6-10
Bet On: 3 ($243)
Bet Against: 13 (-$466)
They
continued to limp along without their star center Jack Eichel, who was declared
out for the season. They moved out some pieces at the trade deadline, yet still
managed to engineer some costly upsets. The Sabres were actually the 8th best team to bet on league-wide, and likely cost you money if you were
consistently betting them to lose, which is what happened to me. Thankfully I’m
still running a large profit on Sabres games for the year.
Previous Rank: 3
April Win-Loss Record: 7-4
Bet On: 6 ($295)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $691 (LR: 6)
Bet Against: 5 (-$251)
Earlier in the
season, I often questioned whether my profits betting Oilers games was
sustainable. They’ve been among my best teams to wager since January, whether
picking them to win or lose. The cracks finally started to emerge in April,
where Edmonton had a light schedule due to all those cancelled Canucks games.
Previous Rank: 3
April Win-Loss Record: 7-4
Bet On: 6 ($295)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $691 (LR: 6)
Bet Against: 5 (-$251)
A
big chunk of the blame for my Oilers losses in April were mostly the result of
them winning by 2 or more goals for a few road games where I had the home team
+1.5 goals. Edmonton would sweep the Ottawa Senators, covering the puckline
-1.5 goals 6 times in 8 games (including the last 2 games of the series where I
invested in Ottawa +1.5, which was not among my finest gambling moments). It
would have been logical to check how the season series had gone before making
those picks, but the Sens had been showing dramatic improvement.
3) Vancouver
Canucks, ($3,746):
Previous Rank: 2
April Win-Loss Record: 3-4
Bet On: 0 ($0)
Bet Against: 7 (-$467)
The Vancouver Canucks
didn’t play many games in April thanks to a devastating Covid outbreak. During
their absence, I was eagerly awaiting the opportunity to bet them to lose upon
their return, as I’m sure were 90% of hockey bettors. They were supposed to
play a Friday-Saturday series against Edmonton, which was delayed due to
continuing health issues. The delay only lasted 2 days, and they would face an
even tougher opponent in Toronto. 100% of my bet was on the Leafs -1.5. The
Canucks won; my bet lost. I doubled down on Toronto for the 2nd game, and lost again.
Previous Rank: 2
April Win-Loss Record: 3-4
Bet On: 0 ($0)
Bet Against: 7 (-$467)
This then forced the existential question; were those
games just a fluke, or should I be betting on Vancouver? They closed out the
month with a 4-game set against Ottawa and were favored in all 4 games, so I
took Ottawa +1.5 goals which won 3 of 4. That helped me reclaim some of the
money lost on those Toronto games.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 8 (-$51)
Bet Against: 5 ($1,959)
My success betting
the Jets to cover the puckline continued into April, as they were listed as
underdogs against every team but Ottawa (while the Canucks were on hiatus).
It’s hard to say precisely why the sportsbooks continued to disrespect them,
whether they don’t like the defensive analytics, or whether the line offerings
are simply a reflection of public betting habits. If the majority of bettors
are regularly laying their money on Jets opponents, the lines likely adjust
accordingly.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 8 (-$51)
Bet Against: 5 ($1,959)
Between late March and
early April, I had made 9 consecutive successful wagers on Jets games. Then
they failed to cover +1.5 goals for 3 straight home games, costing me a large
sum of money. At that point they lost one of their best players Nikolaj Ehlers
to a season ending injury, so my bets thereafter shifted 100% against Winnipeg,
resulting in some big wins. They’ve been in a tailspin since losing Ehlers.
5) Arizona
Coyotes, ($1,920):
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 5 ($234)
Bet Against: 10 ($330)
The high standard of
success that I set for myself on Coyotes games in March extended into April
which started with a long road trip. I cashed in on back-to-back road wins against
the Ducks, before shifting my wagers to Coyote opponents, managing my own
betting winning streak.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 5 ($234)
Bet Against: 10 ($330)
There was a 6-week period where I was crushing both
sides of Coyote bets, after a horrendous start to the season. My Coyotes
streak came to an end when they failed to cover +1.5 goals for a pair of home
games against Minnesota, which fortunately were small bets, as my conviction
was weak. They closed the month with an improbable shutout win against Vegas
which cost me a large wager, but otherwise it was a good month.
6) Florida
Panthers, ($1,713):
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 9 ($2,491)
Bet Against: 7 ($696)
My first 14 Panthers
bets in the month of April were all winners, helping Florida shoot up my power
rankings. Not all those bets were on Florida to win/cover, as I occasionally
picked their opponents on the road (Carolina twice and Dallas twice +1.5
goals). The team faced adversity after a hot start, losing defenseman Aaron
Ekblad for the season. 12 of my 16 wagers were on the home team, whether that
was Florida or their opponent, and that paid off, including two games in Tampa
where I took Florida +1.5 because the line offering was too good to resist.
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 9 ($2,491)
Bet Against: 7 ($696)
As
mentioned in the intro, my total profit on all NHL games played in April was
$3,014. My profits betting Panthers games was $3,186. This team is the only
reason that I posted a profit for the month. There may have been some luck
involved, as winning 15 of 16 bets on single team is extraordinarily
improbable.
7) Pittsburgh
Penguins, (+$1,709):
Previous Rank: 4
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 13 (-$171)
Bet Against: 2 (-$1,000)
The Penguins started
April with a 2-week road trip where they were often the underdogs (except in
New Jersey), prompting me to wager Pittsburgh +1.5 goals whenever offered. This
would have been successful had they not been pumped for 15 goals against over
consecutive games versus the Bruins and Rangers. But I still came out of that
road trip with a profit, thanks to those wins over New Jersey. It helped them
that Sidney Crosby was red-hot in April, putting the team in a position to win.
Previous Rank: 4
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 13 (-$171)
Bet Against: 2 (-$1,000)
Unfortunately, that road trip was followed by a 3-game stretch where they lost
2 games against Philly and Buffalo, then failed to cover -1.5 goals in another
tilt against the Sabres. Some of that money was recovered in a 3-game homestand
against New Jersey, but the rollercoaster ride continued, as my last 3 Penguins
bets of the month ended in failure when they upset Boston, then lost to
Washington, costing me $1000.
8) Vegas
Golden Knights, ($1,560):
Previous Rank: 6
April Win-Loss Record: 11-4
Bet On: 12 ($560)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $709 (LR: 5)
Bet Against: 3 (-$361)
Previous Rank: 6
April Win-Loss Record: 11-4
Bet On: 12 ($560)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: $709 (LR: 5)
Bet Against: 3 (-$361)
Over a period of 8 games from
March 21 to April 3rd I lost 7 bets, perhaps the worst stretch of
Vegas games I’ve experienced since this gambling experiment began. But my faith
in their ability did not waiver, and I continued to pound that Knights
moneyline, and was rewarded for my conviction, winning 10 of my next 12 wagers.
The exception was 2 games in Los Angeles where I took the Kings +1.5 goals
because there was good line value and the Kings had been good at covering +1.5
at home…at least they had been until the Golden Knights blew them out 10-2 over
those games. It proved to be a flawed decision.
9) San Jose
Sharks, ($1,447):
Previous Rank: 14
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 8 (-$377)
Bet Against: 7 ($1,601)
When Martin Jones got
hot in late March, my wagers started shifting more to the San Jose side, which
turned out to be revenue neutral thank to big home losses against Anaheim and
Los Angeles. They were decent enough to sneak into the playoff conversation, as
St. Louis was barely hanging on to that final spot. The Sharks sat 4 PTS out
with 15 games remaining. Jones started to cool off in those back-to-back-back
losses against LA and Anaheim, taking the team’s playoff chances down with him.
Previous Rank: 14
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 8 (-$377)
Bet Against: 7 ($1,601)
They lost 7 straight at one point in April (including being outscored 8-1 in that
set against Anaheim). The Anaheim losses cost me some money, but it was enough
to snap me out of the illusion that the Sharks were a good team, and had me
betting big on Minnesota and Vegas in the games that followed. My last 8 bets
on Sharks games were winners, mostly on their opponents to emerge victorious,
which they did (the exception being two home games where I took San Jose to
beat Arizona).
April Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Bet On: 8 (-$265)
Bet Against: 6 (-$457)
April Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Bet On: 8 (-$265)
Bet Against: 6 (-$457)
My Isles portfolio was
rolling right along until a set of back-to-back losses to the Bruins where I
was invested in New York +1.5 goals, losing $1000. Both those games were on the
road, where the Islanders have not been as fruitful. My confidence was shaken, prompting
me to put $500 on the Rangers +1.5 goals, and the Isles pounded them 6-1. Those
were three big losing bets within a few days that dropped this team a few spots
down my rankings. All 6 bets that I made on Islanders opponents in April were
+1.5 goals, half of them winners, but the payout was too small to overcome the
3 losses.
11) Tampa Bay
Lightning, ($1,121):
Previous Rank: 13
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 7 ($88)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$385 (LR: 20)
Bet Against: 8 ($778)
The Lightning are not
dominating teams as they have over the past 2 years, but their lines are still
being priced as though they are. For 15 consecutive games in March and April, I
bet Tampa to win, some moneyline, some puckline, losing nearly $2000. That’s when
my bets started shifting more to their opponents +1.5 goals.
Previous Rank: 13
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 7 ($88)
If you bet on them every game ML+PL: -$385 (LR: 20)
Bet Against: 8 ($778)
That Tampa home
puckline bet -1.5 goals has been so reliable over the last 2 years, but failing
to cover in back-to-back Red Wing games pushed me to the breaking point. When
they had a stretch of 4 games at home against Carolina and Florida, that
visitor puckline +1.5 goals proved to be a winner each match. That kicked off a
stretch of 9 consecutive successful bets on Tampa games, though it was my bets
on their opponents to cover +1.5 that were the most profitable.
12) Columbus
Blue Jackets, ($1,011):
Previous Rank: 23
April Win-Loss Record: 2-12
Bet On: 3 (-$33)
Bet Against: 11 ($2,898)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $1,138 (LR: 1)
The Columbus Blue
Jackets fell far enough out of the playoff race by mid-April that they decided
to become sellers at the trade deadline, securing a pair of 1st round draft picks. Part of the reason that they found themselves as sellers at
the deadline was the ice-cold slump of Patrick Laine, who went 14 games without
scoring a goal between March 11 and April 10.
Previous Rank: 23
April Win-Loss Record: 2-12
Bet On: 3 (-$33)
Bet Against: 11 ($2,898)
If you bet against them every game ML+PL: $1,138 (LR: 1)
My Blue Jackets portfolio was
down nearly $2000 heading into April, but would eventually climb back to even
after a string of bad games where most of my action was invested in their
opponents. They went through one stretch with 12 road games and 4 home games,
where I bet them +1.5 goals 3 times in those limited home games. I made 11 bets
on Blue Jacket opponents, and won them all (including the Florida Panthers 4
times). The futility of the BJs was a major contributing factor to my
unbelievable stretch of Florida profits. Without those two teams, my April results
would have been far more dire.
13) Washington
Capitals, ($930):
April Win-Loss Record: 9-6
Bet On: 10 (-$323)
Bet Against: 5 ($702)
Washington had a road
heavy schedule in the first half of April, but that didn’t stop me from picking
them to win in 2/3 of their games. Most of my Caps wagers were winners, aside
from getting hammered 8-3 by the Islanders, a home loss to a struggling Boston
team, and a 5-2 loss at the hands of last place Buffalo.
April Win-Loss Record: 9-6
Bet On: 10 (-$323)
Bet Against: 5 ($702)
They’ve spent a big
chunk of the season in first place in their division, as the top 4 teams are
all very close competitively. It’s astounding how often the Caps are underdogs
given their record, though those are all road games. Fortunately for Caps
bettors, the team is equally good regardless of venue. I would have finished in
the black betting them to win had they not lost to Pittsburgh at home in the
last game of the month.
14) Calgary Flames,
($904):
Previous Rank: 9
April Win-Loss Record: 6-6
Bet On: 8 ($305)
Bet Against: 4 (-$437)
The Flames had a
light schedule in early April, as did most of the Canadian division with the
Canucks recovering from Covid. Their struggles under Sutter continued, which started
to provide more value on their betting lines +1.5 goals. I’ve been having
success picking the Flames +1.5, but messed up picking that outcome for a pair
of home games against Toronto early in the month.
Previous Rank: 9
April Win-Loss Record: 6-6
Bet On: 8 ($305)
Bet Against: 4 (-$437)
In 12 April games, the Flames
covered +1.5 goals 9 times, including every single road game. They might have
only won 50% of their games, but they covered 75% of their +1.5 pucklines,
which is where all my Flames winnings occurred. Betting against Calgary
resulted in a net loss to my Flames portfolio. Jacob Markstrom started
returning to his early season form, which helped them stay in games.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 4 (-$7)
Bet Against: 9 ($952)
The Blackhawks were a
50-50 team over the first half of April, while my bets were spread 50-50 on
them to either win or lose. My selections had been very dependent on opponent
and venue, where they had been a better team at home, resulting in a large
majority of my bets being on home teams for Hawks games. But when goaltender
Kevin Lankinen started to struggle in the middle of the month, my bets shifted
more to Blackhawk opponents, which bore some fruit.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-8
Bet On: 4 (-$7)
Bet Against: 9 ($952)
My bets were on their
opponents for 6 of their last 7 games in the month, helping me post a strong
positive balance of $945, most of that coming on the moneyline. Blackhawks
opponents did cover the puckline -1.5 goals in nearly half of their games. It
was a good bet to make, but one that I avoided.
Previous Rank: 15
April Win-Loss Record: 10-7
Bet On: 8 ($502)
Bet Against: 9 (-$73)
The Dallas Stars had
an absurdly busy April, playing 17 games after a delayed start to the season. For
15 of those games, my money was on the home team. Part of the reason for that
was the home team was the underdog in 10 of those games, and home dogs +1.5 is
an offer that’s tough for me to resist.
Previous Rank: 15
April Win-Loss Record: 10-7
Bet On: 8 ($502)
Bet Against: 9 (-$73)
At one point I amassed a streak of 9
wins in 10 bets on Dallas games, but only half of those were on the Stars to
win/cover. They did have a stretch of 6 easy games against Columbus and Detroit
that bolstered my imaginary betting account. By month’s end, my wagers were
closely split between Dallas and the opposition, though it was my bets on the
Stars to win/cover that produced most of my profit on their games April.
17) Philadelphia
Flyers, ($94):
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 8 (-$832)
Bet Against: 7 ($283)
The Flyers were so
atrociously bad in March that they started offering some line value in April,
which tempted me on multiple occasions +1.5 goals. The goaltending started to
stabilize, at least until a 5-2 loss at the hands of Buffalo (where I had bet
the Sabres +1.5 goals because there was great line value). On April 15th,
Carter Hart was lost to a season ending injury, which elevated Brian Elliott
into primary starter status.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 8 (-$832)
Bet Against: 7 ($283)
My profits on Flyer opponents would have been much
higher had they not managed big upset wins over the Penguins and Rangers. By
the end of the month, I was shocked to see how often I had bet on the Flyers,
though most of that was +1.5 goals. Those Flyers wagers were producing a profit
until the last 2 games of the month, when I put $1000 on the Philly moneyline
against New Jersey, where the Devils managed to win both games, pushing my
monthly balance deep into the red.
18) Ottawa
Senators, (-$511):
April Win-Loss Record: 7-7
Bet On: 11 ($787)
Bet Against: 3 (-$119)
After losing
considerable money betting against the Senators in March, I started betting
Sens +1.5 goals every home game and their opponents moneyline for every road
game. This was not a flawless strategy (especially for a pair of home losses to
Edmonton), but did stop the bleeding in my Sens accounts.
April Win-Loss Record: 7-7
Bet On: 11 ($787)
Bet Against: 3 (-$119)
By mid-April, I even
started betting them +1.5 goals on the road, as their fortunes improved as
visitors, leading to a streak of 6 consecutive winning bets on Sens games. They
were looking good ahead of a 4-game set against the Canucks, yet were still the
underdog in all 4 matches. They won 3 of 4, and I made a nice little profit on
the puckline +1.5 goals. The goaltending has been a huge issue, yet they still
have managed to grind out some wins.
19) New Jersey
Devils, (-$568):
April Win-Loss Record: 3-13
Bet On: 1 ($132)
Bet Against: 15 ($1,769)
The Devils were good when
I thought they were bad, then as my bets started gravitating more to them as
winners, they began to suck. By the month of April, they were basically in a
free fall and I started to recover some of my losses from earlier in the
schedule. They played 16 games in April, and I won 13 of my first 14 wagers on
Devils games (almost exclusively betting their opponents), helping them climb
my power rankings. The only game in that stretch where I bet the Devils was a
home game +1.5 goals against Washington because the Caps were on a back-to-back
and played badly the night before. My Devils success in April would have been
even better had it not been for a pair of upset victories against Philly that cost
me $1000.
20) St. Louis
Blues, (-$750):
April Win-Loss Record: 7-6
Bet On: 3 ($246)
Bet Against: 10 (-$1,327)
The Blues were a bad
team in March, but started to turn things around in April, climaxing with a 9-1
massacre of the Minnesota Wild on April 9 (where I had made a large Wild
wager). The two teams met again the next night, allowing me to test the theory
that teams are more likely to win following blowout losses, but that didn’t
work either.
April Win-Loss Record: 3-13
Bet On: 1 ($132)
Bet Against: 15 ($1,769)
April Win-Loss Record: 7-6
Bet On: 3 ($246)
Bet Against: 10 (-$1,327)
Goaltender Jordan Binnington significantly improved his play in
April, which helped stop the bleeding. Near the end of the month, they managed
back-to-back victories against Colorado that cost me $1000. They closed out the
month with another pair of wins against Minnesota, but by this point I was starting
to learn my lesson, and put some action on the Blues.
21) Los
Angeles Kings, (-$1,176):
April Win-Loss Record: 6-8
Bet On: 6 (-$801)
Bet Against: 8 ($591)
The Kings have been a
much better team at home than on the road, and the oddsmakers clearly know
this. They were the favorites for their first 4 home games in April, and the
smart thing to do was take their opponent +1.5 goals in those situations (which
unfortunately I only did twice, resulting in a net loss on the Arizona leg of
the homestand).
April Win-Loss Record: 6-8
Bet On: 6 (-$801)
Bet Against: 8 ($591)
They certainly were not the favorite when Vegas came to town
for a pair of games, where I decided to stake the Kings +1.5 goals because of
their past success on home ice, and the Knights blew them out 10-4. The Kings
played 11 of their 14 April games at home, which is the only reason I bet them
to win/cover 6 times. Unfortunately, they only won 4 of those 11 games, covering
+1.5 goals 6 times.
22) New York
Rangers, (-$1,491):
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 12 ($546)
Bet Against: 4 (-$191)
My fiscal
relationship wagering on Rangers games has been a bumpy road in 2021, as they
find themselves to be a decent team in a tough division, fighting with the
Boston Bruins for the last playoff spot in that division throughout April. They
have an explosive offense and have been getting (mostly) strong goaltending
from Igor Shesterkin.
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 12 ($546)
Bet Against: 4 (-$191)
Between March 25 and April 9, I lost 6 of 9 bets on
Rangers games, most of which came from betting on the Rangers to lose. I was
able to recapture some of those losses when they had a 4-game set against New
Jersey. They are a better team than their record indicates, as they may just
have fallen victim to playing in an impossible division. If anything, I was
picking them to win a little too often, but it still resulted in a net gain.
23) Carolina
Hurricanes, (-$2,118):
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 11 ($358)
Bet Against: 5 (-$453)
The Hurricanes were
tied for first place in the Central Division with Tampa and 2 PTS ahead of Florida
by April 13. The Canes delivered back-to-back home wins against the Florida
Panthers, then dropped a 2-game set at home to the Red Wings that cost me a pile
of Monopoly Money. If you removed those 2 improbable losses from my Hurricanes
portfolio, April would have been a far better month.
April Win-Loss Record: 10-6
Bet On: 11 ($358)
Bet Against: 5 (-$453)
Most of my bets were on
Carolina to win, but the temptation to pick their opponents +1.5 goals did overwhelm
me on 5 occasions, which proved to be a regrettable decision. At no point did I
bet a Carolina opponent to win the game outright, not even Tampa. Yet the Canes
lost enough games that betting them exclusively to win was only mildly profitable.
24) Montreal
Canadiens, (-$2,256):
April Win-Loss Record: 7-10
Bet On: 4 (-$195)
Bet Against: 13 ($1,063)
The Habs have been
one of the harder teams to pin down this season, seemingly alternating back and
forth from good to bad. They changed their coach mid-season, which led to a
temporary improvement, then collapsed in early April (which also coincided with
a Carey Price injury and Jake Allen regressing when vaulted into a more every
day roll).
April Win-Loss Record: 7-10
Bet On: 4 (-$195)
Bet Against: 13 ($1,063)
I managed a stretch in April where I banked 7 out of 10 Habs bets,
helping to repair some of the damage from earlier in the season. The team was
good enough to be favored in most non-Leaf games, and I was leaning heavily on
their opponents +1.5 goals.
25) Nashville
Predators, (-$2,424):
April Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Bet On: 11 (-$989)
Bet Against: 3 (-$365)
The Preds continued
to ride a scorching Juuse Saros into April, but their smoking hot goalie
started to cool off in the middle of the month. Most of my April bets were on
Nashville to win or cover +1.5, which turned out to be a bad bet versus
Carolina. The team was hit hard by injuries, playing most of the month without
their top scorer Filip Forsberg.
April Win-Loss Record: 8-6
Bet On: 11 (-$989)
Bet Against: 3 (-$365)
9 of their 15 games in April were at home,
where they have been a much better team and where my most of Preds success
occurred. On the road in April, I lost nearly $1500 betting on Preds games
(half on them to lose and half on them to win). They win when I pick them to lose,
and lose when picking them to win. That phenomenon also occurred earlier in the
season, as I’ve been struggling to figure out this roster.
26) Anaheim Mighty
Ducks, (-$2,439):
April Win-Loss Record: 4-10
Bet On: 4 (-$242)
Bet Against: 10 ($445)
My performance
betting Ducks games was far from mighty early in the schedule, when John Gibson
was stealing games and covering road pucklines. Fortunes improved when Gibson
started to struggle, but he would rebound and start ruining opposing pucklines
again in April. By this point, I had mostly stopped taking Ducks opponents -1.5
goals, so did not repeat the same catastrophe that took place in January.
April Win-Loss Record: 4-10
Bet On: 4 (-$242)
Bet Against: 10 ($445)
Betting against the Ducks has not been a problem when they’re playing Colorado,
Vegas, or Minnesota, but I’ve been getting hammered all season when laying
action on their San Jose and LA games. They have strangely been a much better
team on the road for most of the season, where a pair of upset wins against San
Jose cost me $1000. Then when I bet the Ducks +1.5 on the road against LA, they
were blown out 8-2. I suppose Los Angeles isn’t exactly a “road” game for
Anaheim, and that might have been my mistake there.
27) Boston
Bruins, (-$2,631):
April Win-Loss Record: 11-6
Bet On: 7 (-$3)
Bet Against: 10 (-$1,315)
The Bruins struggles
in the 2nd half of March was very costly to my hockey betting
experiment, when I was still regularly picking them to win. That’s the primary
reason why I was picking their opponents almost exclusively for the first 2
weeks of April. Injuries to their goaltenders and defense was also a
contributing factor to my anti-Boston bets, but they were still winning too
many games for the strategy to be financially viable.
April Win-Loss Record: 11-6
Bet On: 7 (-$3)
Bet Against: 10 (-$1,315)
When they acquired Taylor
Hall at the trade deadline and defeated the Islanders in back-to-back games by
combined score of 7-1, nearly all my bets shifted to Boston to win. They played
the last place Sabres 4 times in the last 10 days of April, but dropped a 6-4
loss in one of the games that damaged the profitability of those opportunities.
28) Minnesota
Wild, (-$2,902):
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 10 ($458)
Bet Against: 5 (-$1,143)
My problem with the
Minnesota Wild is that it took me some time to realize they were a good team,
costing me a substantial sum early in the schedule. As the season has
progressed, their lack of consistency added a layer of difficulty. I bet them
to lose a pair of games in Vegas that they won, then I bet them to win a pair
of games in St. Louis that they lost. Just those 4 games alone flushed $2000
down the toilet.
April Win-Loss Record: 10-5
Bet On: 10 ($458)
Bet Against: 5 (-$1,143)
Then they had another game against St. Louis, this time at
home, and blew a 3rd period lead that cost me $500. I’ve heard
stories from some pro bettors that they’ve been making big profits from Wild
games, but that hasn’t translated to my portfolios. I won 6 of 7 Wild bets when
they were playing in Minnesota, then lost 6 of 8 Wild wagers when they went on
the road. Therein lied my problem.
29) Colorado
Avalanche, (-$3,110):
April Win-Loss Record: 9-4
Bet On: 9 ($305)
Bet Against: 4 ($246)
The Colorado
Avalanche are among the NHL’s best teams, yet finished March dead last in my
betting power rankings. It’s embarrassing how bad I’ve been at picking their
games, whether picking them to win or lose. That deficit started to shrink in
April, as I made 8 consecutive successful bets on them to start the month. The
bad news is, the sports books know they’re a really good team and offer only
tiny payouts on their moneyline wins. Their back-to-back losses against St. Louis
cost me $1000.
Most of my early
season trouble came from the puckline, which I entirely avoided in April. For
such a good team, it’s remarkably difficult to grind out a profit. I came out ahead
in the 4 games betting against the Avs, which included Minnesota +1.5 twice and
the Golden Knights in Vegas.
30) Toronto
Maple Leafs, (-$3,665):
April Win-Loss Record: 9-5
Bet On: 7 (-$459)
Bet Against: 7 (-$1,065)
After a March swoon
(where they merely won 50% of their games), the Leafs started picking up steam
in April where they were the favorite in every game. I mostly avoided Leafs
-1.5 goals and found myself gravitating to their opponents +1.5 more often,
with mixed results.
April Win-Loss Record: 9-4
Bet On: 9 ($305)
Bet Against: 4 ($246)
April Win-Loss Record: 9-5
Bet On: 7 (-$459)
Bet Against: 7 (-$1,065)
At one point goaltender Jack Campbell set a new franchise for
consecutive wins by a goalie, before the team dropped 5-straight, including
back-to-back games against the Covid ravaged Vancouver Canucks that cost me
$1000. As they continued that road trip into Winnipeg, I took the Jets +1.5
goals for a pair of games that the Leafs won 9-4, wiping out another $1000. The
Leafs continue to kick my ass, whether I’m picking them to win or lose.
31) Detroit
Red Wings, (-$5,018):
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 7 ($304)
Bet Against: 8 (-$1,720)
It’s embarrassing
that a team near the bottom of the standings is dead last in my NHL bet ranks.
It only adds insult to injury that this is my favorite franchise. My own
futility trying to predict the outcome of their games spilled over into April,
which even included a rare 5-1 victory over the Lightning in Tampa, which
should have been a lock.
April Win-Loss Record: 5-10
Bet On: 7 ($304)
Bet Against: 8 (-$1,720)
If you thought the success of the Wings on that Tampa
road trip was a fluke, they also delivered shockingly improbable back-to-back
road wins against the Carolina Hurricanes. In the last week of April, the Wings
lost Captain Dylan Larkin for the season, and it did not significantly hurt
their fortunes because the goaltending remained strong, as Thomas Greiss even
recovered and vastly improved on the shit-show from earlier in the schedule.
Damned you! (I’m a Wings fan on “Team Tank”).
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