Monday, November 22, 2021

2021/22 NHL Week 6 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 6 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week5 Betting Report.

 
My Weekly Profit: -$1,337
My Season Profit: $8,821
 

It was a rough start to my week, losing both my Monday bets (Islanders and Red Wings +1.5 goals), then on Tuesday investing heavily in the St. Louis Blues to defeat the Arizona Coyotes, which was a loss. Fortunately, I won most of my other wagers on Tuesday, negating that Coyotes defeat. When my Yotes were back in action against Columbus two days later, I spread my money across the moneyline and puckline. It went to a shootout, and the BJs barely squeezed out a victory. Combined with the over, that game was nearly a break-even event. Arizona played their 3rd game of the week against Detroit, which was an entirely winnable game, so I stayed away from the puckline. It didn’t matter, as the Yotes won the game outright.

As of Saturday morning, I was actually up $256 despite being a large net loser on the Yotes. The biggest thing keeping my head above water for the week was over/under betting. It was another week where unders defeated overs as the most profitable total to wager, but I managed to post positive returns in both categories. Seattle and Chicago overs were driving my success. Kraken overs have been a cash cow, but the expected goals models suggest they should be giving up far fewer goals against. Either it’s a flaw in the EG models, or the Seattle goalies suck. There may be some sharp bettors picking Seattle unders because of expected goals, which is the only reason why the sportsbooks aren’t juicing the lines even more. Much like the Dallas unders earlier in the season, I’ll continue punching that ticket until the money stops rolling in. Below is a chart of the results of betting $100 on every over or under.


If you love betting overs, you had some really bad losses late in October, but your results have stabilized. If you’re betting $100 on every over, your big winners are Seattle +$900, Colorado +$523, and Edmonton +$463. If you’re an under bettor, Toronto +$723, LA +$694, and San Jose +$416 are driving your success as we approach the first quarter marker of the season.


 

My Week 6 Results

 *Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.


It was a losing week for me, but there is a silver lining. If you deleted my Arizona Coyote bets from the log book, I would have finished the week up $1,841. The team I’ve been betting against all season nearly went 4-0, but if that golden goose is done laying eggs, I can take solace in my success picking non-Coyote outcomes this week. I was able to build up a big bankroll on those early defeats, and can protect those profits by making smaller bets on Arizona games going forward (at least against riskier opponents).

This was a strong week for favorites, both on the moneyline and puckline -1.5 goals, both at home and on the road (even more so if you delete Arizona from the sample). Visitors did improve their performance from the previous weeks (48%), and that proved to be my best betting category (thanks to Colorado). There has been a very distinct home ice advantage early in the season, so the sportsbooks have been increasingly taxing the home lines. If road teams are able to sustain improved performance playing in front of opposing fans, that will create value on the visitor betting lines (which happened in the second half 2019/20). Stay tuned.

One notable takeaway from this past week, was the Red Wings and Islanders going a combined 0-8 and not covering a single puckline. If you bet every Det & NYI moneyline and puckline, you went 0-16. Betting on those two teams to lose every ML+PL produced a higher rate of return than the Coyotes to sweep.

 

My Team of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, +$756

Colorado only played 2 games in week 6, but both were big winners for me with $500 bets on the moneyline against both Vancouver and Seattle, 2 of the worst teams in the league. The fact that both were Avalanche road games without MacKinnon in the line-up provided good value on their betting lines, but those factors also scared me away from the puckline -1.5 goals (which the Avs hit in both matches).

The Kraken were also a contender for my top team of the week, though there was overlap with the Avalanche given that the two teams played each other. Those Kraken overs continue to pop, which was able to negate my lost bet for Washington to beat Seattle on Sunday.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, -$3,194

If you’ve been following my previous betting reports, you know that I’ve been crushing the Arizona Coyotes all season. They lost 14 of their first 15 games, and I bet Yotes to lose every one of them. They were my “team of the week” 3 times in the first 5 weeks. The Blues had a winning record this season and felt like a safe bet to go “all in” on the puckline -1.5 goals. Not only did St. Louis not cover, they actually lost the match. While my initial reaction was to say “shame on you”, they did outshoot Arizona 36-23, with Scott Wedgewood making 34 saves.



That flushed $1,000 down the toilet. Then they played Columbus, and I went $500 moneyline, $500 puckline, with the Blue Jackets barely squeezing out a victory. When the Yotes defeated the Red Wings on Saturday, costing me another large bet, I was ready to throw in the towel on my big short. But like Sly in Rocky 4, I didn’t throw the towel. With the Coyotes flying to LA for a back-to-back with no Wedgewood, I decided to make 1 more giant $1,000 anti-Arizona bet. The Yotes won 2-1. At least I hit the under. A win would have been enough to put in the black for week, but instead I’m bleeding red.


 

 
My 3 Best Bets of Week 6:                                    Best Market Bets of Week 6:
 
1) Colorado to win ML: +$656                              1) Islanders to lose ML+PL: +$1,101
2) Seattle over: +$433                                            2) Detroit to lose ML+PL: +$827
3) Under: +$432                                                     3) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$760
 
My 3 Worst Bets of Week 6:                                Worst Market Bets of Week 6:
 
1) Arizona to lose ML+PL: -$3,177                      1) Underdogs moneyline: -$985
2) Detroit to win ML+PL: -$1,100                        2) Islanders to win ML+PL: -$800
3) LA to win ML+PL: -$1,100                              3) Detroit to win ML+PL: -$800
 
*I lost -$3,000 ML+PL in the Arizona victories over St. Louis, Detroit and Los Angeles.
 

My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 6: (over/under not included)

 

1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$756)

2) Washington Capitals, (+$641)

3) Carolina Hurricanes, (+$330)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 6: (over/under not included)

 

1) Detroit Red wings, (-$1,100)

2) Los Angeles Kings, (-$1,100)

3) St. Louis Blues, (-$1,000)

 

My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 6: (over/under not included)

 

1) San Jose Sharks, (+$335)

2) Vancouver Canucks, (+$281)

3) Seattle Kraken, (+$275)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 6: (over/under not included)

 

1) Arizona Coyotes, (-$3,177)

2) Calgary Flames, (-$410)

3) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$194)

 

Team By Team Power Rankings


These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.






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