Monday, November 15, 2021

2021/22 NHL Week 5 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 5 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 4 Betting Report.

 
My Weekly Profit: $1,518
My Season Profit: $10,157
 

Two of the teams that I had been riding to victory over the first 4 weeks came crashing back to Earth this week, and those were the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers. Those stallions had ranked 2&3 in my season-long power rankings as of November 8th, with the Panthers going 0-3 to start the week and the Oilers losing to Detroit and Buffalo when I was heavily invested in striking oil. I fell behind early in week 5 (down -$535 after Friday’s games), but was able to claw my way back above zero thanks to the tanking of the Arizona Coyotes, who once again are driving my success. My other big weekend winners were Minnesota over Seattle and Calgary over Ottawa (when in all fairness, and I’m not sure how they didn’t postpone that game due to Covid).


My Week 2 Results 

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.


Underdogs started the week strong, thanks in part to Detroit upsetting Edmonton, LA upsetting Toronto, Pittsburgh upsetting Florida, Buffalo upsetting Edmonton, Nashville (on a back-to-back) beating St. Louis, but then favorites stormed back over the weekend (probably because home teams won 13 of 19 games). Home teams won 57% of games on the week, but that number was only 48% on Friday morning. 

This was my second consecutive bad week of betting goal totals. The unders were ahead early in the week, then 68% of the overs hit on Saturday and Sunday, to level things off (coincidently right after I Tweeted on Friday night that the overs were far behind on the season). That’s yet another example of me Tweeting about a market trend, and it swinging hard back the other way. Overs finished the week slightly ahead of unders, but I was awful at both.


 

For the whole season, I have bet $27,000 on over/under and have lost -$39. At one point in week two I was converting at a 64% success rate, back when I was mostly just guessing and not putting much numerical analysis into my bets. As I’ve started to get more analytical, my conversion rate has been slipping, hitting just 47% of my O/U bets in week 5. Part of my problem was not doing a fast enough U-turn on the Dallas Stars after Jason Robertson returned to the line-up.


 

My new O/U darling is the Seattle Kraken, who are disproportionately hitting their overs (which would be in jeopardy if their goaltending improved). Meanwhile, the LA Kings have been banking those unders. My only worry there would be the sustainability of Jonathan Quick’s quality play.

 

My Team of the Week: Arizona Coyotes, +$2,873

Thank God the Arizona Coyotes suck. After a hick-up in week 4 when they managed to beat Seattle at home, the Yotes were back to their losing ways in week 5. If not for Arizona, this week would have been catastrophically bad for my betting portfolio. Minnesota -1.5 goals, Chicago moneyline, and Nashville -1.5 goals, all winners. Oddsmakers have been nerfing the Coyote lines, forcing me to go all in on the puckline when they play good teams; but I’m sticking to moneyline against teams that I don’t trust (like Chicago and Seattle). It will get increasingly difficult to profit from Arizona’s futility going forward, and if they manage to win a few consecutive games, I’ll endure heavy losses. However, I’m not going to stop my “big short” and won’t make any apologies for profiteering off this train wreck.

Second place in my team of the week race was Minnesota, thanks entirely two their wins over Seattle and Arizona.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, -$972

The Edmonton Oilers were my team of the week just 7 days ago, but had a rough ride in week 5. The Oiler losses to Detroit and Buffalo cost me 2 large bets. Yes, those two teams are better than most people expected, but the Oilers had been one of the best teams in the entire NHL over the first 4 weeks. Hence why I was investing substantially larger sums on Edmonton wins. Sunday Edmonton was a road dog against St. Louis, and I made a minimum wager on Oilers +1.5 goals, and they won 5-4. They lost to 2 theoretically bad teams (I’m not ready to believe that Detroit and Buffalo are good), then defeated 2 theoretically good teams. I'm not going to stop riding this horse, but I'll be exercising a little more caution. 



It was a two horse race all week for the dubious distinction of my worst betting team of the week. Florida hit a rough patch without Sergei Bobrovsky in the line-up, as rookie Spencer Knight got lit up by the Devils. Bob returned for the Penguins game, so I made a large wager on Florida, and Pittsburgh won. Granted, that may have had more to do with my wicked inability to pick the correct outcome of Pens games this season.  The Panthers wrapped their week against Tampa (who were favored) and my bet was Florida +1.5 goals, which won.

 

My 3 Best Bets of Week 2:                                    Best Market Bets of Week 2:
 
1) Arizona to lose ML+PL: +$2,620                     1) Vancouver to lose ML+PL: +$890
2) Minnesota to win ML+PL: +$1,658                 2) Seattle to lose ML+PL: +$730
3) Washington to win ML+PL: +$1,121               3) Los Angeles to win ML+PL: +$726
 
*There was overlap between my 2 best bets when Minnesota beat Arizona.
 
 
My 3 Worst Bets of Week 2:                                Worst Market Bets of Week 2:
 
1) Road moneyline: -$872                                      1) Vancouver to win ML+PL: -$800
2) Edmonton to win ML+PL: -$833                      2) Florida to win ML+PL: -$657
3) Los Angeles to lose ML+PL: -$700                  3) Washington to lose ML+PL: -$652
 
 

My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 2: (over/under not included)

 

1) Minnesota Wild, (+$1,685)

2) Washington Capitals, (+$1,121)

3) Nashville Predators, (+$497)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 2: (over/under not included)

 

1) Edmonton Oilers, (-$833)

2) Florida Panthers, (-$657)

3) St. Louis Blues, (-$500)

 

My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 2: (over/under not included)

 

1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$2,620)

2) Seattle Kraken, (+$656)

3) Ottawa Senators, (+$315)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 2: (over/under not included)

 

1) Los Angeles Kings, (-$700)

2) Nashville Predators, (-$500)

3) Pittsburgh Penguins, (-$382)


Team By Team Power Rankings


These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.




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