Welcome to my Week 4 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 3 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $8,639
Week 4 was my worst week of the season to date, losing $1,202. The biggest contributor to that negative total was the Arizona Coyotes snapping their 11-game winless streak at home against the Seattle Kraken. A win by the Kraken would have lifted me back close to zero for the week, but the loss instead plunged me deep into the red. The start of week 4 also marked a new month in the NHL schedule, and it will be difficult to match my October success as these Arizona Coyote lines start to get nerfed and if the team continues to improve.
The best two “market bets” of week 3 were the unders and Calgary Flames to win (who went 4 for 4 on both moneylines and pucklines). The Flames had a big week playing mostly on the road, then returned home to kick off November. I jumped on the bandwagon far too enthusiastically, and lost 2 big Flames bets Monday and Thursday when they were -150 favorites on the moneyline. To make matters worse, I continued hammering unders and the overs started to strike back.
My Week 4 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
Home teams won 68% of games in week 4 (similar to week 1), with home favorites performing exceptionally well both on the moneyline and puckline. Unfortunately for those of us who jumped on the Flames bandwagon, Calgary was not one of those teams. I still came out ahead betting home teams, but it could have been far better. Road favorites did manage a small profit if you bet $100 on all their moneylines and pucklines. It was road underdogs who really got hammered this week.
I was nailing my over/under bets early in the schedule, peaking at a 64% success rate by week 2. The unders surged ahead in week 3, and I rode the wave on a Dallas Stars surf board; but crashed into a reef in week 4 when the overs started to pop. Dallas unders went 8-0 in the first 3 weeks, only to go 0-3 in week 4. This has me pondering whether or not some of these “trends” are simply a matter of random variance, and not a functional causal pattern. I’m sure there are people who watch roulette tables in casinos waiting for one color to hit repeatedly, then start betting the other color under the false belief that the recent previous spins affect the next. We call this “the gambler’s fallacy”.
I decided to have a look at “nightly goals per game” versus the over/under total on the betting lines. Scoring was down in week 3, the oddsmakers adjusted the line offerings in week 4, and scoring jumped back up. I got burned this week on the unders, but there was a perfect storm conspiring against me.
I fell into a trap of “when in doubt, take the under”
and scoring jumped back up. My strategy will revert to what it was in the first
two weeks, look at the teams, look at their goals per game (for and against),
consider the goalies, and make a judgement call. Shifting too hard in the
direction of “market trends” has burned me in the past. I had even Tweeted that
the under trend was being driven entirely by the Stars and Rangers, yet started
betting unders more aggressively in games not involving those 2 teams.
If you bet $100 on every NHL "under" this season, you are up $1,132. Though, $1,223 of your profit came from the Stars and Rangers. If not for those two teams, the unders would be losing money. #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) November 1, 2021
My Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, +$583
Technically, the Anaheim Mighty Ducks finished slightly ahead of Edmonton in terms of my total profit for the week, but most of that came in one game against Arizona. So I’m calling an audible and declaring Edmonton to be my “team of the week”, as they won all 3 of their games and I bet them to win all 3. I won a greater sum of money betting Oilers to win than Ducks to win, but messed up my Oilers overs. I started betting unders more aggressively (as explained above), when I should have continued betting Oilers overs. This is my first year betting over/under, so it was a rookie mistake.
Heading into this season, I was not intentionally targeting Edmonton to be one of the NHL's best teams; yet have bet them to win/cover 8 times in the first 9 games. They currently sit 3rd in my #NHLBetting Power Rankings. I'm going to continue riding this wave. #LetsGoOilers
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) November 4, 2021
It should be noted that the Ducks also won all 3 of
their games in week four, the first 2 coming against New Jersey and Arizona
when my money was on the Ducks. Some of that profit was paid back when Anaheim
upset St. Louis on Sunday. 4 weeks into the season, and the Ducks are 5-3 at
home and 1-4 on the road. I’m up $878 betting Anaheim to win/cover at home on
the season. The Ducks tend to be underdogs, and if you bet $100 on them to
cover the puckline +1.5 goals every time they’re dogs, you’re up $522. If you
bet $100 on the favorite to cover -1.5 goals in every NHL game, the Ducks have
cost you more dough than any other team. Even when they were losing, they were
covering the spread.
The Anaheim Ducks have only won 2 of their first 9 games, but have covered +1.5 goals 8 times. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Wild have won 5 of 7 but have covered -1.5 goals zero times and still haven't played a really good team (until Colorado tomorrow). 🧐 #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) October 30, 2021
My Worst Team of the Week: Calgary Flames, -$944
The Flames were the best team to bet in week 3, but came crashing back to earth with back-to-back home losses to start week 4. Those 2 games cost me a considerable sum of money. Fortunately, they did catch the Rangers on a back-to-back to close out the week, so I was able to recoup some of those losses. They were great on the road then struggled after returning home. This gave me flashbacks to 2019/20, when Calgary was by far my worst betting team due to abnormal home-road splits.
There was a tie for second place for my worst team of
the week, between Colorado and Columbus. Both teams only played 2 games, and
they were between each other. Both times the Blue Jackets upset the Avalanche,
who have had injuries on their blueline. I lost $500 on the first game, and $250
on the second game.
2) Home favorites moneyline: +$747 2) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$855
3) Oilers to win ML+PL: +$696 3) Senators to lose ML+PL: +$669
2) Under: -$918 2) Under: -$1,053
3) Flames to win ML+PL: -$839 3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$790
My Best Teams To Bet On
In Week 4: (over/under not included)
1) Philadelphia Flyers, (+$823)
2) Edmonton Oilers, (+$696)
3) Anaheim Ducks, (+$650)
*Most of my money won on Philly and Anaheim came in
wins vs the Coyotes
My Worst Teams To Bet
On In Week 4: (over/under not included)
1) Seattle Kraken, (-$939)
2) Calgary Flames, (-$839)
3) Colorado Avalanche, (-$750)
My Best Teams To Bet
Against In Week 4: (over/under not included)
1) Seattle Kraken, (+$501)
2) Arizona Coyotes, (+$389)
3) New York Rangers, (+$265)
My Worst Teams To Bet
Against In Week 4: (over/under not included)
1) Columbus Blue Jackets, (-$750)
2) Vegas Golden Knights, (-$550)
3) Nashville Predators, (-$524)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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