Welcome to my First Quarterly Hockey Betting Report of the 2021/22
season. Unlike my weekly reports, the quarterly report will delve deeper into
my team-by-team results. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real
money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with
real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like
the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it
provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis.
To clarify, I’m most often using MGM or Caesars line
offerings, where only one team is listed +1.5 or -1.5 on the puckline. Some
books do offer a more diverse set of options, but I’ve been doing it this way
since the beginning. For the sake of continuity and simplicity, I prefer the
“one or the other” method. Whichever teams gets listed -1.5 goals is referred
to by me as the “favorite”, even if the moneylines are the same. When you see
“Washington -1.5 goals” that only refers to those games where they were “favored”.
My 1st Quarter Profit: $8,927
The main theme of my Q1 betting was the “big short” of
the Arizona Coyotes, who lost 14 of their first 15 games to start the season. A
historically brutal run for the Yotes led to a historically fabulous run for my
gambling portfolio. Then they went 3-0-1 in week 6 and cost me over $3,000. My
money-train may have run out of track. Scroll down to the team rankings for a
longer explanation.
In the battle of the pucklines, it’s been a bad
quarter for +1.5 goals, who are trailing their counterparts -1.5 goals in
profitability. That hasn’t been the case historically, as -1.5 goals has been a
large net loser the past 2 seasons. The Washington Capitals really helped drive
this recent trend, with some help from Calgary and Florida. On the flip side,
the Islanders and Coyotes have failed to cover +1.5 on numerous occasions.
While I bet $0 on Arizona +1.5 goals, NYI did lure me into their trap a few
times as we enjoyed some past success together.
You can see in the chart below, that favorites -1.5
goals are behaving differently than this stage of the previous 2 seasons. Home
teams won 57% of all games in the first quarter, and tend to be listed as the
favorite. Given that success, oddsmakers have been taxing the home lines. But
road favorites are also succeeding on the puckline, whereas in the past that
has been a massive net loser and a cash cow for sportsbooks.
Underdogs +1.5 goals has a higher rate of return
than underdog moneyline, which is also true historically. You may notice that I
rarely bet underdog moneyline, preferring instead to take +1.5 goals if the
line on the favorite is undesirable. I posted profit with the home
dogs, but not the road dogs. The underdog sector as a whole was the big loser
in Q1. Favorites have been driving my own success, as I hit 63% of my bets -1.5
goals in the first quarter. That’s unsustainably high, and half of those were
Arizona Coyote games (who have started covering +1.5 more often). If I took
that data and started making more bets -1.5 goals, it would surely drive my
rate of return down. Being very selective is the primary reason I’ve done so well.
This is my first season betting Over/Under, so I’m
learning on the fly. It’s certainly no fun to cheer for unders, and be upset
anytime either team scores a goal. I entered the season expecting scoring to be
up and in week one, which it was. My bets were skewed heavy to the overs early, until
that started losing money. Then I shifted to betting predominantly unders, leading
to some good weeks. The market was swung heavily early by the Dallas Stars and
New York Rangers hitting virtually every under, but eventually both those teams
started scoring more goals, and LA-Toronto moved into the Q1 lead.
If you bet $100 on every over in the first quarter,
you lost -$2,233. I suspect a
disproportionate amount of public money gets bet on overs, which would create
some line value for unders. We shall see how well those pay off going forward. Picking
the under tends to be my default position, only betting over if I’ve got a
reason to. The Kings were my best “under” team in the first quarter.
Interestingly, the Kings also earned an odd distinction, they were both my
worst team to bet on, and my worst team to bet against. I got cleaned out on
both sides.
My 1st Quarter Results:
*Market Bets calculated by betting
exactly $100 on every outcome*
Market Best Bets +1.5 Goals: Market Worst
Bets +1.5 Goals:
1) Anaheim Ducks, (+$693) 1) New
York Islanders, (-$755)
2) Calgary Flames, (+$202) 2) Arizona
Coyotes, (-$649)
3) Washington Capitals, (+$152) 3) Montreal
Canadiens, (-$506)
Market Best Bets -1.5 Goals: Market Worst
Bets -1.5 Goals:
1) Washington Capitals, (+$1,122) 1) Nashville
Predators, (-$443)
2) Calgary Flames, (+$545) 2) Pittsburgh
Penguins, (-$400)
3) Florida Panthers, (+$522) 3) Tampa
Bay Lightning, (-$387)
My Best 1st Quarter Over/Under Bets: Market’s Best 1st Quarter Over/Under Bets:
1) Seattle over, (+$1,076) 1) Seattle
over, (+$800)
2) Columbus over, (+$528) 2) Colorado
over, (+$686)
3) Tampa over, (+$513) 3) Toronto
under, (+$623)
4) Los Angeles under, (+$508) 4) Los
Angeles under, (+$594)
5) Tampa under, (+$495) 5) Vancouver under, (+$501)
*Yes, I had fabulous success betting both Tampa over and under, scroll down to the team section for more analysis.
My Worst 1st Quarter Over/Under Bets:
1) Toronto over, (-$579)
2) Montreal under, (-$538)
3) Colorado under, (-$518)
4) Carolina over, (-$505)
5) Pittsburgh over, (-$426)
My Best 1st Quarter
Teams To Bet On: Market’s Best 1st Quarter Teams To Bet On:
1) Washington Capitals, (+$3,151) 1) Washington
Capitals, (+$1,280)
2) Florida Panthers, (+$1,850) 2) Florida
Panthers, (+$1,144)
3) Minnesota Wild, (+$1,648) 3) Anaheim
Ducks, (+$1,093)
4) Carolina Hurricanes, (+$1,638) 4) Calgary
Flames, (+$978)
5) Edmonton Oilers, (+$1,224) 5) Carolina
Hurricanes, (+$904)
My Worst 1st Quarter Teams
To Bet On:
1) Los Angeles Kings, (-$1,071)
2) Seattle Kraken, (-$1,008)
3) Toronto Maple Leafs, (-$923)
4) Detroit Red Wings, (-$849)
5) Montreal Canadiens, (-$628)
*It’s no surprise that 3 of the teams who lost to
Arizona cracked this list.
My Best Q1 Teams
To Bet Against: Market’s Best Q1 Teams To Bet Against:
1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$5,835) 1) New
York Islanders, (+$1,671)
2) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$1,564) 2) Montreal
Canadiens, (+$1,666)
3) Montreal Canadiens, (+$1,563) 3) Seattle
Kraken, (+$1,137)
4) Seattle Kraken, (+$1,194) 4) Ottawa Senators, (+$1,093)
5) New Jersey Devils, (+$958) 5) Arizona Coyotes, (+$1,029)
My Worst 1st Quarter Teams
To Bet Against:
1) Los Angeles Kings, (-$1,243)
2) Pittsburgh Penguins, (-$1,204)
3) Nashville Predators, (-$960)
4) Calgary Flames, (-$671)
5) Colorado Avalanche, (-$520)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
The team-by-team
gambling power rankings are ordered by the sum of all my bets on each team to
win or lose for the entire season. They are my own personal power rankings,
reflecting my own success picking the outcome of their games. These aren’t
necessarily the best teams to bet on, as some were swung by a few instances of
good luck or bad judgement. You’ll have to read the team summaries for a deeper
understanding of the replicability. If you are going to be betting on hockey in
the near future, it may help you to read about my own personal success and
failure over the month. For an unbiased look, I will include an overall rank of
account balances if you bet each team to win or lose every game and every
puckline, providing monolithic results of betting both sides consistently team
by team.
LR = League Rank
1) Arizona
Coyotes, ($6,333):
Last Season Rank: 10
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 4-16
% Money Bet On: 0% ($0)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,584
(LR: 31)
% Money Bet Against: 100% ($5,835)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1029 (LR: 5)
% Bet Over: 81% ($70), Market Return
on $1: $0.80
% Bet Under: 19% ($429), Market Return
on $1: $1.09
Halleluiah for the
Arizona Coyotes tank! My expectation heading into this season was to be “all
in” on the Arizona-Buffalo turtle race to dead last, but abandoned the Sabres short
position when they started winning. The Coyotes however, might actually be
worse than the 2019/20 Red Wings, or at least appeared that way when losing 14
of their first 15 games. It was the acquisition of Scott Wedgewood in goal off
waivers that steadied the ship (whereas those Wings continued to ride Jimmy Howard to the bottom).
The Yotes were a bad
team last season, but were fortunate enough to play in a weak division with
plenty of games against other bad teams. Then in the offseason, they unloaded
some of their better players (especially in goal), and seemed destined for
darkest depths of defeat. That's what happened until Wedgewood came to town to start his Vezina
Trophy campaign. More often than not, my max bet is $500. Occasionally when I
smell blood in the water, I’ll raise that to $1,000. I was betting a G-note on
every Arizona game, until they went 3-0-1 in week 6, then my bets were halved
on moved almost entirely to the moneyline.
Teams can pull out of
nosedives. It happens all the time. What makes the 2021/22 Coyotes different
than the 2021 Canucks, is that the team is actively trying to tank and has
several pieces they’re likely to trade as the deadline approaches. Wedgewood
shouldn’t be looking to buy a house in Arizona. The better he plays, the more
likely he is to be traded. My life was easier when they lost every game.
2) Washington
Capitals, ($2,294):
Last Season Rank: 20
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 12-8
% Money Bet On: 89% ($3,151)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $1,280 (LR: 1)
% Money Bet Against: 11% (-$433)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,390 (LR: 30)
% Bet Over: 32% (-$340), Market Return
on $1: $0.89
% Bet Under: 68% (-$84), Market Return
on $1: $1.01
Traditionally
Washington has been among my better teams to bet, mostly investing on their
victories. When they lost Ovechkin, Samsonov, and others to a Covid outbreak
early last season, I made some large bets on their opponents to win. The Caps
defied the odds, bumping them down my power rankings. Where they have been
especially awesome for my betting portfolio is road wins. I love betting
Washington to win on the road. While their core is aging, Ovechkin is still
among the greatest players ever.
Injuries to Nick
Backstrom, TJ Oshie, and Anthony Mantha hurt the Capitals significantly in the
first quarter, but unreal production from Alex Ovechkin helped make up the
difference. 89% of my stake on Washington games in the first 5 weeks was
invested in the Caps and it paid off. If anything, those injuries helped push
some extra line value in their direction. One area where Washington was outstanding was
covering pucklines -1.5 goals, with the best rate of return in the entire NHL.
That should only improve as they get healthy (or is unsustainably high).
3) Minnesota
Wild, ($1,658):
Last Season Rank: 24
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 12-7
% Money Bet On: 71% ($1,648)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$100
(LR: 16)
% Money Bet Against: 29% ($384)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$599 (LR: 24)
% Bet Over: 63% (-$61), Market Return
on $1: $1.10
% Bet Under: 37% (-$313), Market Return
on $1: $0.81
Last season I had
considerable success betting on games played in the state of Minnesota, but got
hammered when the Wild went on the road. They won games in Colorado and Vegas
when I was staked against them, but lost some big games in San Jose and St.
Louis when I bet them to win. They were knocking out some heavyweights, but
also got KO’d by some lighter-weights.
Entering this new
season, I was unsure how to feel about this team, but they’ve been good. The
biggest problem was a failure to cover pucklines -1.5 goals, but luckily
for me, they managed to do so against the Arizona Coyotes when I was heavily leveraged.
Without that single game, they would have ranked 18th in my power
rankings. The other category weighing me down is their over/unders. The Overs paid
out more, and that’s where 63% of my money was invested, but still produced
negative returns.
4) Chicago
Blackhawks, ($1,632):
Last Season Rank: 15
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 6-13
% Money Bet On: 41% ($380)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,303
(LR: 29)
% Money Bet Against: 59% ($1,564)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $616 (LR: 7)
% Bet Over: 71% (-$100), Market Return
on $1: $0.95
% Bet Under: 29% (-$213), Market Return
on $1: $0.98
The Chicago
Blackhawks substantially exceeded my expectations early last season, thanks in
large part to the emergence of Kevin Lankinen. But when they collapsed in the
second half, I was quick to profit from their downfall. Entering 2021/22, my
expectations was that the acquisitions of Marc-Andre Fleury and Seth Jones
would significantly improve the team, but that’s not what happened. The Hawks
fell short, with me losing money in most of their games early in the schedule.
What kept me above
zero was their two losses to Carolina, when I made large bets on the Canes, and
Chicago’s defeat of Arizona. Sometimes a few big bets can dig you out of a
hole, or just dig the hole deeper. 41% of my total investment in Hawk games was
on them to win, but a majority of that was in their match against the Coyotes.
Otherwise, Chicago to lose has been a big earner for me.
5) Boston
Bruins, ($1,620):
Last Season Rank: 26
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-6
% Money Bet On: 76% ($1,183)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$8
(LR: 13)
% Money Bet Against: 24% ($349)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$184 (LR: 14)
% Bet Over: 63% ($131), Market Return
on $1: $1.06
% Bet Under: 38% (-$42), Market Return
on $1: $0.83
The Bruins were among
my worst teams to wager in 2021, which mostly came from incorrectly betting
Boston to win/cover (my 2 worst categories being visitor moneyline and home
puckline -1.5 goals). The team lost both their goalies over the summer, and
their replacements have not been as good. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand
continued to get older, and at least Patrice is nearing the end of his career.
A significant portion
of my Bruins success in the first quarter of 2021/22 came with $500 ML and $500
PL bets in a road game against the Sabres that Boston won 4-1. Otherwise, most
of my bets on Bruin games were small. This team is on a downward trajectory,
just squeezing whatever competitiveness they can get from that aging
foundation. The market still values this team more than they are currently
achieving, so it’s hard to get value on their lines. Where you get the most
value is on their overs. Those have been paying out.
6) Edmonton
Oilers, ($1,572):
Last Season Rank: 4
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 14-5
% Money Bet On: 92% ($1,224)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $346 (LR: 8)
% Money Bet Against: 8% ($210)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$937 (LR: 26)
% Bet Over: 79% ($260), Market Return
on $1: $1.24
% Bet Under: 21% (-$121), Market Return
on $1: $0.65
The Oilers went from
being one of my worst teams to bet in 2019/20, to one of my best in 2021. The
key to my turnaround was noticing that I had lost a ton of dough betting them
to lose on the road, and instead started picking them regularly as visitors in
that Canadian division. Getting swept by the Jets in the playoffs and not
addressing their goaltending issues in the summer made me pessimistic about
their future, yet found myself betting them to win or cover 13 times in their
first 14 games.
The Oilers were my
“team of the week” for week 4, climbing up to #2 in my power rankings, but
followed that up with losses to Detroit and Buffalo that made them my “worst
team of the week” in week 5, falling to #12 in my power rankings. That shook my
confidence, but not enough to abandon them completely. Betting against Connor
McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is a tough proposition, especially if you’re going
to be watching the game.
7) New York
Islanders, ($1,513):
Last Season Rank: 5
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 5-11
% Money Bet On: 58% ($246)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,041
(LR: 26)
% Money Bet Against: 42% ($740)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,671 (LR: 1)
% Bet Over: 18% ($83), Market Return
on $1: $0.74
% Bet Under: 82% ($444), Market Return
on $1: $1.17
The Islanders
finished 5th in my 2021 power rankings, with all of my NYI profit
coming in the playoffs, when I was repeatedly smashing the puckline +1.5 goals.
During the regular season, Isles home moneyline was a big winner, and road ML
was a big loser. This season, they started the first 5 weeks playing entirely
road games, and I had success both when betting to win and lose. If it seems
odd that 58% of my Isles investment was on them to win/cover and that I generated
positive returns from that category with a 5-11 team; it’s because I bet $1,000
on their 3-0 victory against Arizona. That negates the -$750 that I burned on
Isles +1.5 goals.
Islander unders have
also been serving me well, especially during that Ilya Sorokin heater.
Interesting how that hot streak ended at the same time that the Islanders
stopped scoring goals, allowing the unders to continue generating profit when
the goaltending blew up and the Isles went on a 7-game losing streak. The
Islanders ended the first quarter in a Covid outbreak, which certainly won’t
help their near-term winnability.
8) Columbus
Blue Jackets, ($1,483):
Last Season Rank: 11
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 11-6
% Money Bet On: 67% ($1,162)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $890 (LR: 6)
% Money Bet Against: 33% (-$474)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,002 (LR: 27)
% Bet Over: 27% ($528), Market Return
on $1: $1.13
% Bet Under: 73% ($267), Market Return
on $1: $0.77
The Blue Jackets were
my 11th best team to bet last season, as they were a team that
struggled to score goals but were good at keeping it out of their net. Those
are the best teams to bet +1.5 goals, and the BJs were for both of the 2
previous seasons. But over the summer more players left, and the defensive
minded head coach was not renewed. That threw BJ profitability into doubt.
Most of my Blue
Jackets Q1 profit came in the 3rd night of the season when they blew
out the Arizona Coyotes at home. The 5 weeks that followed were a slow grind. After
that Arizona win, I was mostly only investing in Columbus +1.5 goals as
underdogs. My confidence in their overall talent was lacking, but I was still
avoiding laying big money on their opponents until back-to-back surprise
victories against Colorado. Elvis Merzlikins started the season in Vezina form,
which helped the Blue Jackets punch above their weight.
The BJs first quarter
over/under results were interesting. They hit the under in 5 of their first 7
games, then hit the over 7 consecutive times. I was betting mostly unders for
that entire span, banking $836 in the first 7, and losing -$295 in the next 7. I
managed to post a quarterly profit on their unders due to 2 max bets when they
played the Stars and Rangers, who were on “under” streaks of their own.
9) Florida
Panthers, ($1,437):
Last Season Rank: 6
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 14-5
% Money Bet On: 88% ($1,850)
If you bet on them every
game ML+PL: $1,144 (LR: 2)
% Money Bet Against: 12% (-$215)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,596 (LR: 31)
% Bet Over: 26% (-$130), Market Return
on $1: $0.90
% Bet Under: 74% (-$69), Market Return
on $1: $1.00
I officially jumped
on the Panthers bandwagon in the second half of last season and at one point in
April went on an incredible run winning my Panthers bets 18 times in 19 games.
Their moves over the summer only strengthened my resolve. That’s why I entered the
season laying heavy action on Florida from their first game, and it paid off as
they won their first 8 games in a row. Not only could their shooters score, but
goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky had an uncharacteristically outstanding September
that was helping them pad their win total.
There was an average
of 6.4 goals scored per Florida game with an average line of 6, which would
suggest that the overs would be profitable. However, the unders were 10-9, with
a few high scoring games that boosted the average. Poor returns on O/U betting
dropped the Panthers a few spots below were they belonged in my power rankings.
They lost their best player Sasha Barkov to injury near the end of the first
quarter.
10) Tampa Bay
Lightning, ($1,400):
Last Season Rank: 7
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 11-7
% Money Bet On: 51% (-$229)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$290
(LR: 20)
% Money Bet Against: 49% ($621)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$260 (LR: 17)
% Bet Over: 50% ($513), Market Return
on $1: $0.95
% Bet Under: 50% ($495), Market Return
on $1: $0.95
The Tampa Bay
Lightning were my most profitable team to bet against in the 2nd
half of last season, but when Nikita Kucherov returned for the playoffs, they
caught fire and won another championship. I had incorrectly picked Florida to
upset them in round 1, but did jump on the bandwagon and started betting Tampa
to win after that. Salary cap constraints and the expansion draft forced them
to unload several key pieces over the summer, which darkened the outlook. But
at least they had a healthy Nikita Kucherov…until losing him to long-term
injury in the 3rd game of the season.
My 2021/22 Tampa
betting started out brutally when they lost to the injury depleted Penguins
team on opening night when I was heavily invested in a Tampa blowout. In the
weeks that followed, Tampa started climbing my power rankings, driven largely
by my success betting their over/unders. Half my investment was on the over,
half on the under, posting big profits in both categories. Overall, T-Bay returned equal money on over and under. My strategy has been to bet over when
they play bad teams, and under when they play good teams (with a few
exceptions).
My general strategy
when they play good teams is to bet their opponent +1.5 goals, which was
profitable. The Lightning have been bad at covering -1.5 goals this season.
11) Seattle
Kraken, ($1,343):
Last Season Rank: N/A
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 6-13
% Money Bet On: 30% (-$1,008)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,151
(LR: 27)
% Money Bet Against: 70% ($1,194)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,137 (LR: 3)
% Bet Over: 76% ($1,076), Market Return
on $1: $1.42
% Bet Under: 24% ($82), Market Return
on $1: $0.52
The Kraken entered
this season with a blank slate, and unlike every other team on this list, I
have no betting history to inform my decisions. There were public models who
expected them to be competitive this year, so there was some line generosity
early in the schedule. They lost 5 of their first 6 games. I have a column in
my betting spreadsheet where I write a comment for why I picked each bet. My
note for game 7 was simply “Seattle might suck”. I was starting to smell the
opportunity to take a substantial short position. By Nov 20, they were only one
point behind Arizona for dead last in the NHL. As bad as the Yotes started the
season, the Kraken weren’t that much better.
Seattle started the
season with a 5-game road trip, so I was mostly betting their opponents before
coming to the conclusion that they were a bad team. After their first 11 games,
I was up $1,206 betting on their games. Most of that was paid back all in one
night when they lost to Arizona. Following that debacle, all my money was on their
opponents, leading to a nice run of profit (which ended with a stunning upset
vs Carolina). Kraken overs were the best O/U bet of the first quarter, which
was a surprise given that many expected this team to be tight checking with
good goaltending. It took me until the last week of October before I started hitting that over every game.
12) Carolina
Hurricanes, ($1,181):
Last Season Rank: 23
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 14-4
% Money Bet On: 98% ($1,638)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $904 (LR: 5)
% Money Bet Against: 2% ($67)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,130 (LR: 29)
% Bet Over: 37% (-$505), Market Return
on $1: $0.74
% Bet Under: 63% (-$19), Market Return
on $1: $1.21
From October 2019 to
May 2021, the Hurricanes were outstanding in the first half of the season, then
slipped in the second half. That hurt me dearly in the 2nd half of
the 2021 pandemic shortened campaign, when I was “all in” on Carolina wins. Over
the summer they lost Dougie Hamilton and both their goalies. If you thought
that was going to slow them down, you were wrong.
My own expectations
were diminished entering 2021/22, but they had an easy schedule in the first
week, soliciting my wagers. They won their first 9 games, so my money stayed on
Carolina to win. Over the first 5 weeks, 98% of my stake in Carolina games was on
the Canes to win/cover. That would have produced a much higher return had they
not failed to cover -1.5 goals in a game versus Arizona, costing me -$1,000. In week 7 they
dropped back-to-back games to San Jose and Seattle, which cost me another -$1,000. Had it not been for
those “bad beats”, this team would have finished 2nd in my first
quarter power rankings. They only lost 4 games in the quarter, 3 of them to
teams sitting outside a playoff spot on November 25.
In 18 first quarter
games, the unders went 11-7. I only made 6 bets on Hurricane overs, and lost 5
of them. They were the 5th most profitable team to bet under, but I
still managed to post a small loss despite 63% of my stake invested in low
scoring games.
13) Anaheim Mighty
Ducks, ($1,167):
Last Season Rank: 27
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-10
% Money Bet On: 70% ($1,193)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $1,093 (LR: 3)
% Money Bet Against: 30% (-$133)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,823 (LR: 32)
% Bet Over: 35% ($73), Market Return
on $1: $0.95
% Bet Under: 65% ($34), Market Return
on $1: $0.94
One of the biggest
unexpected success stories of the first quarter was the MIGHTY Ducks sitting in
a playoff spot in late November. My only expectation early in the season was
that John Gibson has a history of being really good in the first few weeks of a
schedule. The Ducks were underdogs nearly every game early, and
were also covering +1.5 goals nearly every game. I was onto that bet early,
expecting Gibson to keep them close and even steal a few Ws. I lost a pile of
money betting Duck opponents -1.5 goals in the first half of last season, but eventually
Gibson’s play slipped, and a short position became warranted. Sometimes losing
money teaches you how to win money (even if you’re only playing with pretend
money).
Neither the over or
under produced a first quarter profit, both showing similar rates of return.
While Gibson was playing great, the offense also caught fire. There was an
average of 6.1 goals per Anaheim game with an average line of 5.6, which would
suggest an advantage for the over, but they went 10-10.
14) New York
Rangers, ($901):
Last Season Rank: 28
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 12-7
% Money Bet On: 39% ($369)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $440 (LR: 7)
% Money Bet Against: 61% ($361)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$980 (LR: 25)
% Bet Over: 8% (-$200), Market Return
on $1: $0.75
% Bet Under: 92% ($371), Market Return
on $1: $1.16
The Rangers finished
last season near the bottom of my betting power rankings, due largely to bets
made on their opponents to win/cover. They won 40% of their games in the first
half, and 57% in the second half. There was some public analytics buzz about the
Rangers last season that pushed their betting lines above what their actual
record warranted. A substantial chunk of my losses came on their opponents +1.5
goals, where I simply questioned whether the Rangers should be favored by as
much as they were.
Underdog +1.5 goals
is my default bet when I don’t like the line on the favorite. The fact that I’m
betting on every game requires a “default position” when in reality if real
money were involved, I’d probably make no bet at all. That’s why despite losing
money on Ranger opponents +1.5 goals last season, I continued making that bet
in 2021/22, and it became my best category for this team. Opponents started
covering the spread.
The key to the
Rangers first quarter success was the play of goaltender Igor Shesterkin, which
also made their unders very profitable in October. By November, the offense
started to roll, and those unders lost their swagger. All those low scoring
games helped make those bets +1.5 goals more proficient. Teams that play tight defense
with “low event” offense are the most profitable to bet +1.5 goals.
15) New
Jersey Devils, ($877):
Last Season Rank: 22
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 8-9
% Money Bet On: 22% (-$179)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$230
(LR: 19)
% Money Bet Against: 78% ($958)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$276 (LR: 20)
% Bet Over: 28% ($59), Market Return
on $1: $0.89
% Bet Under: 72% ($39), Market Return
on $1: $1.01
The New Jersey Devils
were a thorn in my side last season, losing money both when betting them to win
(at home) or lose (on the road). Abnormal home-road splits can be very
problematic, unless I’m onto the trend early (like Edmonton, Winnipeg, and
Washington). The Devils started this new season with a 5-game homestand and
went 3-2, and I somehow managed to come out of that $1,314 ahead despite
betting their opponents in all 5 games. The secret was betting their opponents
+1.5 goals in 4 of those games, and banking a big return -1.5 goals when they
got blown out by Washington.
If you delete that
Capitals game from the sample, then I would have been a net loser on Jersey,
with rates of return similar to their market number. Perhaps their biggest
problem is playing in a very difficult division. That’s among the reasons that
most of my investment has been on Devils to lose, despite this team being
frisky.
16) Dallas
Stars, ($597):
Last Season Rank: 8
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 8-9
% Money Bet On: 39% ($181)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$173
(LR: 18)
% Money Bet Against: 61% ($92)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $130 (LR: 9)
% Bet Over: 20% (-$118), Market Return
on $1: $0.82
% Bet Under: 80% ($443), Market Return
on $1: $1.10
The Dallas Stars
surprised the hockey world when they advanced to the 2020 Stanley Cup final,
but came crashing back to Earth during the 2021 season. They were among my best
second half teams to bet against, and I was unsure whether to continue taking a
short position heading into the new season. As a result, I mostly just bet the
home team in whatever city the Stars were playing, producing positive results. This
team has had some impressive victories and some embarrassing defeats. They
could very well go on a run if Jake Oettinger stays hot and in the NHL.
In my first season
betting over/unders, Dallas under went 8-0 to start the season, and I cashed in
big on that bet in week 3. Then Jason Robertson returned from injury, and the
overs went on a 7-0 run. The unders finished the first quarter in the black,
thanks to the Oettinger call-up, who provided outstanding goaltending
immediately after being promoted from the AHL.
17) Philadelphia
Flyers, ($595):
Last Season Rank: 19
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 8-10
% Money Bet On: 67% ($448)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$99
(LR: 15)
% Money Bet Against: 33% ($51)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$32 (LR: 11)
% Bet Over: 70% (-$69), Market Return
on $1: $0.74
% Bet Under: 30% ($165), Market Return
on $1: $1.17
The Philadelphia
Flyers won 54% of their games in the first half of last season, and 38% in the
second half. I was guilty of drinking the Kool-Aid that they were a top
contender after their play in 2020. I had success betting them to win early,
and got hammered in the second half. The primary catalyst of their second half
collapse was the sudden implosion of Carter Hart, as the Flyers ceased being
able to prevent goals against. Carter cost me a large sum.
The biggest question
mark entering this new season was whether or not that collapse was just an aberration,
or the new normal. Hart posted a .932 SV% in his first 11 games, silencing his
critics. Most of my bets on Philly games were the minimum $100, placed on the
home team to win or cover. Then they hosted the Arizona Coyotes and I made $500
bets on the moneyline and puckline -1.5 goals, Flyers won 3-0. If not for that
game, Philly would have been a net loser for me in the first quarter.
18) Buffalo
Sabres, ($575):
Last Season Rank: 1
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 7-12
% Money Bet On: 25% ($541)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$410
(LR: 23)
% Money Bet Against: 75% ($187)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$68 (LR: 12)
% Bet Over: 72% (-$23), Market Return
on $1: $1.15
% Bet Under: 28% (-$131), Market Return
on $1: $0.75
The Buffalo Sabres didn’t
land 1st place on too many “best” lists last season, with the
exception perhaps of my “best teams to bet against” list. "Sabres to lose" was
easily my most profitable wager of the whole season, as the team fell apart after
Jack Eichel played his last game in a Sabres jersey. During the summer, they
lost more of their best players, and seemed to be building a roster that
could challenge for dead last and a higher draft pick (especially when they
signed Aaron Dell and Craig Anderson to play goal).
Losing was not what
happened out of the gate. They performed much better than expected, and it
didn’t take me long to adapt. 75% of my Q1 Buffalo money was on Sabres to lose,
which had a low (but positive) rate of return. What’s shocking to me in
retrospect was being +$541 on Sabres to win, with a majority of that coming
+1.5 goals on the puckline. They were a good team to bet "over" in the first
quarter, except when my money was invested in that outcome (which it often
was).
19) Ottawa
Senators, ($347):
Last Season Rank: 14
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 4-13
% Money Bet On: 53% (-$486)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,339
(LR: 30)
% Money Bet Against: 47% ($725)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,093 (LR: 4)
% Bet Over: 39% (-$337), Market Return
on $1: $0.83
% Bet Under: 61% ($445), Market Return
on $1: $1.08
My best success as a
gambler tends to come when betting heavily against nosedives. When teams can’t
keep the puck out of their net, that’s when I smell opportunity. That was the
case with Ottawa early in 2021, however, they eventually pulled out of the
dive, and started winning some hockey games. Unlike with the Canucks, I did not
pull out soon enough. I continued betting them to lose, and eventually paid
back all my early season profits. Later in the schedule, I jumped on the Sens
bandwagon and started winning bets on them to cover +1.5 goals.
My bullish 2nd
half did inflate my opinion of the team, and I entered the 2021/22 schedule
expecting the team to continue their upward trajectory. They won 2 of their
first 3 games, then only 1 of their next 8. I was too slow to react. It wasn’t
until November that a majority of my bets shifted to their opponents. I started
having success, until they got shut down for a week with Covid. They emerged
from that outbreak as possibly the worst team in the league.
20) Nashville
Predators, ($199):
Last Season Rank: 25
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-9
% Money Bet On: 45% ($525)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$313
(LR: 21)
% Money Bet Against: 55% (-$960)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$381 (LR: 23)
% Bet Over: 30% ($146), Market Return
on $1: $0.80
% Bet Under: 70% ($488), Market Return
on $1: $1.11
The Preds were my
enigma team in 2021, unable to correctly pick them to win or lose. It was
almost as though my selections had the ability to swing the outcome of games.
At least until Juuse Saros went on a heater, then my fortunes started to shift,
posting strong returns when betting them to win. The franchise has largely
appeared to be on a downward trajectory, compounded by bad contracts given to
Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen, but the window hasn’t completely closed just
yet. Elite goaltending solves a lot of problems.
While I was skeptical
of the franchise trajectory entering the 2021/22 season, that didn’t stop me
from drafting Juuse Saros to both my fantasy teams. That unintentionally turned
me into a Predators fan, which did not improve my proficiency at betting on
their outcomes. They spent most of the 1st quarter in the bottom
half of my power rankings. At one point they went into Calgary to face a red-hot
Flames team, and pulled out a 3-2 victory that cost me a substantial sum. That
money was eventually won back when they blew out the Arizona Coyotes at home.
21) Vancouver
Canucks, ($40):
Last Season Rank: 2
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 6-14
% Money Bet On: 34% (-$481)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,249
(LR: 28)
% Money Bet Against: 66% ($693)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $731 (LR: 6)
% Bet Over: 60% (-$419), Market Return
on $1: $0.69
% Bet Under: 40% ($247), Market Return
on $1: $1.25
Early in the
shortened 2021 campaign, the Canucks were a train wreck. The defense was
struggling, goaltender Jacob Markstrom had left for Calgary, and the team could
not keep the puck out of their net. I started making big bets on them to lose,
and they shot to the top of my power rankings in February. However, when I
began to notice Thatcher Demko heating up, I stopped hitting those pucklines.
We saw a similar
scenario unfold in the first quarter of this season, but I was reluctant to
make the same puckline investment in their opponents out of fear that Demko
would steal my money. If you bet $100 on Vancouver to lose every game
(moneyline + puckline) in the first quarter, you came out ahead $731. Their
unders produced a high rate of return, as the offense struggled to score goals,
but they still had a talented gatekeeper in net. I mistakenly went in too heavy
on the overs, which dropped them down a few slots in my power rankings.
22) Montreal
Canadiens, ($7):
Last Season Rank: 21
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 5-16
% Money Bet On: 28% (-$628)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$1,838
(LR: 32)
% Money Bet Against: 72% ($1,563)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $1,666 (LR: 2)
% Bet Over: 58% (-$390), Market Return
on $1: $1.10
% Bet Under: 42% (-$538), Market Return
on $1: $0.83
Last season the
Montreal Canadiens started very strong, having great success in the Canadian
division. During the 2019/20 campaign, they were among those rare teams that
was actually better on the road than at home, which led to substantial losses
for me personally. That trend did not continue into 2021. Eventually that fast
start faded, and after goalie Carey Price suffered an injury in the second
half, the whole team took a nose dive, stumbling into the playoffs where they
inexplicably advanced to the Stanley Cup final.
The big blow entering
the new schedule was the loss of Price for the entire first quarter. They also
lost Shea Weber to injury, and Phil Danault to free agency. This was no longer
the same team that advanced to the final. I was actually able to profit greatly
from betting them to lose, but they were by far my worst Over/Under team in the
first quarter. The overs beat the unders, but I lost on both sides. It was like
whatever I bet; the opposite happened.
23) Winnipeg
Jets, (-$274):
Last Season Rank: 3
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 9-10
% Money Bet On: 48% ($350)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$570
(LR: 25)
% Money Bet Against: 52% ($66)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$256 (LR: 16)
% Bet Over: 38% (-$426), Market Return
on $1: $0.76
% Bet Under: 62% (-$265), Market Return
on $1: $1.16
When the Jets lost
Byfuglien, Trouba, and Myers in the same off-season, I was expecting the team
to suck, but ended up burning a pile of money betting them to lose. It was
mostly Connor Hellebuyck who lit the match and stole wins. That was when I
first noticed that they were very proficient at covering pucklines +1.5 goals.
Oddsmakers didn’t like them much either, so they were regularly listed as
underdogs. That same disrespect carried over to 2021, and I was ready to take
advantage, and did. When Hellebuyck started to struggle in April, I flipped my
bets and continued my winning ways.
With the improvements
Winnipeg made to their blueline in the offseason, oddsmakers were ready to
start juicing their lines. Suddenly the line value was gone, and it became more
difficult to win money. At one point they were 9-6 and sitting near the top of
the division, then they lost 4 straight games to end the quarter. This was
another team that killed me on Over/Under, in similar fashion to Montreal.
Their unders had a strong rate of return and solicited 63% of my money wagered,
but still was a net loser. When I tried betting the over, the results were even
worse.
24) Vegas
Golden Knights, (-$353):
Last Season Rank: 9
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 12-8
% Money Bet On: 55% (-$450)
If you bet on them every
game ML+PL: -$22
(LR: 14)
% Money Bet Against: 45% (-$361)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$189 (LR: 15)
% Bet Over: 41% ($445), Market Return
on $1: $1.24
% Bet Under: 59% ($14), Market Return
on $1: $0.67
In 2021 the Golden Knights
were my 3rd best team to bet as winners, at least in the regular
season. When they were eliminated by the Montreal Canadiens in the playoffs,
that series cost me dearly, although still finished with over $2,000 of profit.
In the summer they shipped out Vezina trophy winner Marc-Andre Fleury, but
still had another former Vezina nominee to protect their net.
Vegas continued
soliciting my wagers at the start of 2021/22, but only won 1 of their first 5
games. Then they suffered devastating injuries (or so I thought) to Mark Stone
and Max Pacioretty. That’s when I started betting them to lose, but they
actually started to win. Most of my Vegas problems came on the road, where they
were able to beat good teams and lose to mediocre teams. They would have ranked
even lower in my power rankings had it not been for those overs. That was a
winning bet.
25) Colorado
Avalanche, (-$486):
Last Season Rank: 29
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-6
% Money Bet On: 76% ($197)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $151 (LR: 9)
% Money Bet Against: 24% (-$520)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$311 (LR: 21)
% Bet Over: 47% ($355), Market Return
on $1: $1.43
% Bet Under: 53% (-$518), Market Return
on $1: $0.48
Colorado is one of
the best teams in the NHL, and finished 3rd in my final power
rankings for 2019/20. I was “all in” to start the 2021 schedule, and they
missed some pucklines against bad teams early in the schedule that cost me some
large wagers. I was able to win some of that back when they won 77% of their
games in the second half, but it was difficult because oddsmakers were heavily taxing their lines. They entered the playoffs 24th in my power
rankings, and finished 29th. My unequivocal belief in their
dominance cost me dearly.
The team was without
star sniper Nathan MacKinnon for a big chunk of the first quarter, which did
not have a significant negative effect on their performance. In fact, they lost
back-to-back games against Columbus with MacKinnon (which cost me $750), but
then won their next 6 in
a row after losing him to injury. One of my problems was betting the Avalanche
unders without MacKinnon, expecting their offense to slow down and their
goaltending to be good. Neither happened. Colorado has become one of the best
over wagers.
26) San Jose
Sharks, (-$537):
Last Season Rank: 13
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-9
% Money Bet On: 35% (-$578)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $125 (LR: 10)
% Money Bet Against: 65% (-$313)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$276 (LR: 19)
% Bet Over: 52% ($15), Market Return
on $1: $0.71
% Bet Under: 48% ($339), Market Return
on $1: $1.22
The Sharks abysmal
performance in 2019/20 lowered everyone’s expectations of this team heading
into 2021, but they turned out to be decent. Or more specifically, they were
good against the other bad teams in their division, and struggled to beat good
opponents. Over the summer they replaced Martin Jones with Adin Hill and James
Reimer, and it was difficult to judge at first whether or not that was an
upgrade.
My perception of the
Sharks entering 2021/22 was that they’d be good against bad teams, and bad against
good teams. They proved capable of engineering upsets against quality opponents
(producing upset wins on the road against Calgary, Minnesota, and Toronto), and
produced a net profit if you bet them to win every game ML+PL. All of my Shark
losses came on the road both when picking Sharks to cover +1.5 and when betting
their opponents on the moneyline. Some of those losses were offset by my
success hitting San Jose unders.
27) St. Louis
Blues, (-$824):
Last Season Rank: 16
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 10-9
% Money Bet On: 70% (-$368)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $70 (LR: 11)
% Money Bet Against: 30% (-$415)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$266 (LR: 18)
% Bet Over: 71% (-$3), Market Return
on $1: $0.89
% Bet Under: 29% (-$38), Market Return
on $1: $1.01
The Blues finished in
the bottom half of my power rankings each of the last 2 seasons, but a lion’s
share of my losses came when betting on this team to win/cover. They have let
me down on several occasions against lesser opponents, but also have the talent
to beat any contender any given night. That’s the type of team that’s both hard
to trust betting on and dangerous to bet against.
This trend has
spilled over into 2021/22, with the Blues costing me dearly in a loss to the
Arizona Coyotes. After that defeat, I bet St. Louis opponents in every game; where
they went 2-0 at home (vs San Jose-Vegas) and 0-2 on the road (vs Detroit-Chicago).
Had they managed to beat Arizona in that one game, it would have been enough to
put me in the black for the Blues first quarter. Yet if I were betting real money,
I’d be staying away from this team altogether.
28) Toronto
Maple Leafs, (-$1,120):
Last Season Rank: 30
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 14-7
% Money Bet On: 34% (-$923)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$144
(LR: 17)
% Money Bet Against: 66% ($17)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$153 (LR: 13)
% Bet Over: 56% (-$579), Market Return
on $1: $0.64
% Bet Under: 44% ($365), Market Return
on $1: $1.30
The Leafs might be
the most “public team” in the NHL, with arguably the largest fan base. When the
team is good, there is a disproportionate amount of public money invested in
their wins. As a result, oddsmakers need to tax their lines, making it
difficult to profit from their victories. The only time I profited from Leaf
victories was after Babcock was fired in 2019 and they went on a heater in
December. Pessimism had accumulated in their fan base, creating some line
value.
There was positive
line value when they won 68% of their games in the first half of the 2021
pandemic shortened season, but that was gone by the second half when they won a
mere 57%. They finished 30th out of 31 teams in my final power
rankings, worsened by their improbable playoff loss to Montreal.
In the first quarter
of 2021/22, they went 14-7, but you still lost money if you bet them to win
every game ML+PL. 66% of my Leafs investment
was on their opponents, who only won 7 of 21 games, yet I managed to come out
ahead (thanks to a large bet on Carolina to win). Whereas I bet a smaller sum
on Toronto to win and got hammered. Bizarre, but partially explainable by line
value. Rarely do I like the line on Toronto to win.
My expectation early
in the schedule was that they would be a high scoring team that was vulnerable
defensively, so I came in hot betting the overs. They got great goaltending
from Jack Campbell, and the offense was less proficient (in theory because
there was a greater commitment to defense), which conspired to make Toronto one
of the best first quarter teams to bet under.
29) Calgary
Flames, (-$1,398):
Last Season Rank: 18
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 12-8
% Money Bet On: 66% (-$502)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $978 (LR: 4)
% Money Bet Against: 34% (-$671)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$1,052 (LR: 28)
% Bet Over: 20% (-$205), Market Return
on $1: $0.87
% Bet Under: 80% (-$21), Market Return
on $1: $1.07
My expectations were
very low for Calgary entering the season; after losing Giordano in the
expansion draft it didn’t feel possible that the team could improve. Yet that’s
exactly what happened, as the team fully bought into what Darryl Sutter was
selling. It didn’t take me too long to figure out they were better than
expected, but what tripped me up was the fact that they were better on the road
than at home.
That also happened in
2019/20, and was the reason why they finished dead last in my power rankings
that season by a mile. In the first quarter of 2021/22, they were the most
profitable team you could bet to win on the visitor moneyline, but a net loser on
the home moneyline. It was that trend specifically that sank them to 29th in my
Q1 power rankings. Hopefully it helps me going forward to be cognisant of that.
30) Detroit
Red Wings, (-$1,752):
Last Season Rank: 31
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 9-12
% Money Bet On: 52% (-$849)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$439
(LR: 24)
% Money Bet Against: 48% (-$474)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: $211 (LR: 8)
% Bet Over: 60% (-$178), Market Return
on $1: $0.99
% Bet Under: 40% (-$251), Market Return
on $1: $0.90
As a Red Wings fan,
it can be challenging to forecast this team’s results in an unbiased manner.
They’ve been one of my absolute worst teams to bet dating back to early 2021,
but the problem hasn’t been me betting too much money on them to win. I’m a
“Team Tank” pessimist cheering for losses, but the team defied my low
expectations, with their wins costing me over $5,000 from Jan to Nov 2021. The
“Yzerplan” is ahead of schedule, or at least my preferred schedule (it would be
nice to get a shot at Bedard).
Nearly all of my Q1
Red Wing losses came when picking them to lose at home or win on the road
(notably a $1,000 bet on Detroit to win in Arizona, which lost). If you simply
bet $100 (ML and PL) for the Wings to win/cover every home game and lose every
road game, you won $1,391 on Detroit games in the first quarter. Instead, I’m down
-$1,742. Note to self…
31) Los
Angeles Kings, (-$1,943):
Last Season Rank: 17
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 8-11
% Money Bet On: 45% (-$1,071)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: $67 (LR: 12)
% Money Bet Against: 55% (-$1,243)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$373 (LR: 22)
% Bet Over: 26% (-$137), Market Return
on $1: $0.60
% Bet Under: 74% ($508), Market Return
on $1: $1.31
The Kings have been
rebuilding for the last few years, and have assembled an impressive collection
of young prospects ready to breakout. The only question is when. Anze Kopitar
has continued to evade Father Time, and Jonathan Quick started the 2021/22
season on fire. They lost their best defenseman Drew Doughty to long-term
injury early in the schedule, but still won games on the back of their
goaltending.
For the first quarter
of the season, I was a terrible judge of whether or not this team was going to
win. They struggled on the road, except when I laid money on their opponent.
They were good at home, but couldn’t beat the Arizona Coyotes on a back-to-back
when I was “all in” on the LA moneyline. The only thing keeping them out of
dead last in my power rankings were solid returns on the under. How long that
lasts depends on how long Quick can sustain his outstanding play (which won’t
be forever).
32) Pittsburgh
Penguins, (-$2,233):
Last Season Rank: 12
1st Quarter Win-Loss
Record: 9-10
% Money Bet On: 33% (-$277)
If you bet on them
every game ML+PL: -$368
(LR: 22)
% Money Bet Against: 67% (-$1,204)
If you bet against
them every game ML+PL: -$6 (LR: 10)
% Bet Over: 42% (-$426), Market Return
on $1: $0.91
% Bet Under: 58% (-$326), Market Return
on $1: $1.03
Every year there has
been a team that I’ve been unable to predict either wins or losses (Calgary in
2020, Nashville in 2021), where I’m wrong no matter which option I choose. This
year it’s the Penguins and it applies to both wins/losses and over/under. I’m
posting significant losses in all categories. When I bet under, they go over,
and visa versa. If I were betting with real money, I would just stop betting
their games.
Last season it was
the exact opposite in the first half. They were among my best teams, in my top
5 for both best teams to bet on, and best to bet against. But they improved
significantly in the second half, and my bets on them to lose sank deep into the
red. They started the 2021/22 campaign without either Crosby or Malkin, which
has clouded the forecast. It felt like a shrewd move laying big money on Tampa
to beat them on opening night, but the Pens prevailed.
My rate of return
betting Pittsburgh to lose is far worse than the market rate. You nearly broke
even if you bet their opponents to win/cover every moneyline and puckline. Whereas I
suffered heavy losses (though 83% of those losses came in that first game vs Tampa).
To make matters worse, I was awful at betting Pit Over/Under. There was a better
return on the unders, but I failed on both sides.
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