2021/22 NHL Week 7 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 7 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 6 Betting Report.

 
My Weekly Profit: -$29
My Season Profit: $8,792
 

Week 7 was shortened by an idle Thanksgiving, and once again favorites dominated the leaderboard, both moneyline and puckline, home and road. After getting slaughtered last week by the Arizona Coyote’s winning ways, I halved the size of my bets on Arizona games. They only played 2 games in week 7, which forced me to explore alternative sources of profit. I’ve always had more success shorting bad teams than investing in good teams, and this week was no different. The Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, Montreal Canadiens, Winnipeg Jets, and New York Islanders have all been in tailspins of their own, and they’ve helped me succeed without my golden goose. Sadly, the Islanders were shut-down by Covid mid-week.

This has been a fantastic season for favorites both on the moneyline and puckline -1.5 goals. Typically, I’m only hitting those against teams who are free-falling, but it has been a very profitable category across the board. The trendline for this season in particular is not behaving anything like the past two (see chart below). The Washington Capitals have been the leader at covering -1.5, but removing them from the sample does not reverse the trend. By extension, this has been a tough year for pucklines +1.5, though I’m still pulling a decent profit on those home dogs.

In the battle of over versus under, the overs narrowed their season long deficit. The Washington Capitals and Calgary Flames did the most damage on those totals, with me betting the under in all 3 Caps games. Ilya Samsonov was on a hot streak, and Washington played 2/3 of their games against teams near the top of the standings. It seemed like the right move, but sank me below zero on both my total unders and overs. Though my own biggest loser on the overs was Seattle. Kraken overs had been posting the best returns of any O/U bet on the season, but then went 0-3 in week 7. The goaltenders reversed their misfortune, and both had strong weeks, so that will need to be monitored going forward.

 

My Week 7 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

Mondays have a bad reputation as being one of the worst days of the week, except if you’re a hockey bettor and a team just returned from a week-long outbreak of a respiratory virus to play a game a mile in the sky. I placed a large bet on the Avalanche puckline to beat Ottawa, and that hit thanks to an empty net goal by Nazem Kadri. I was on track to have a successful week, until Saturday hit with two big upsets, Seattle over Florida, and Winnipeg over Calgary. That sunk me below zero heading into Sunday. I hit a big bet on Minnesota to beat the depleted Tampa Bay Lightning, and seemed poised to post a weekly profit. That would have happened if a Bruins empty net goal was not called back against Vancouver because of an offside review. That put me back in the red. Let's end offside review once and for all!

 

My Team of the Week: Columbus Blue Jackets, +$810

As of Friday night, there were multiple teams in the running for my best team of week 7, in lieu of Coyote dominance. The Blue Jackets emerged victorious, winning 3 of their 4 games. Coincidently, I bet them to win all 4, with the biggest windfall coming against the Vancouver Canucks on Friday. I certainly didn’t enter the week targeting this as an awesome team, but they happened to be matched against opponents that were struggling.

The Ottawa Senators finished as my 2^nd best team of the week, and they may have captured the title of my favorite team to bet against. They may very well be worse than Arizona at this moment in time, losing 9 of their last 10 games. They have been charging quickly up my power rankings, reaching as low as 27 in week 4, up to 19th in week 7 (while playing zero games in week 6).

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Seattle Kraken, -$1,357

My worst team of the week was a two-horse race heading into Sunday, between Carolina and Seattle. There was some correlation between those squads, as the Kraken slayed the Canes on Wednesday, costing me a large wager. Seattle would also defeat Florida on Saturday, and their unders went 3-0 (while I was still smashing the over). It was a perfect storm. The Kraken benefited from strong goaltending this week, and if Grubauer finds his groove, this team could be heading on an upward trajectory (along with their unders).

The Hurricanes have been near the top of my power rankings all season, at least until week 7. They plunged nearly 10 slots down my power rankings after back-to-back losses to non-playoff teams. That shook my confidence enough to pick Philly +1.5 goals on Friday, and Carolina surged back to life, winning 6-3.  The Hurricanes have defeated some of the league’s best teams, but they’ve also lost to bad teams. The only thing that bumped them to my 2nd worse team of the week was their Sunday loss to Washington, when my money was on the Caps.

 
 
My 3 Best Bets of Week 7:                                   Best Market Bets of Week 7:
 
1) Columbus to win ML+PL: +$648                     1) Favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,539
2) Vancouver to lose ML+PL: +$579                    2) Philly to lose ML+PL: +$650
3) Ottawa to lose ML+PL: +$576                          3) Toronto to win ML+PL: +$640
 

My 3 Worst Bets of Week 7:                                Worst Market Bets of Week 7:
 
1) Carolina to win ML: -$1,000                             1) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,406
2) Seattle to lose ML: -$857                                   2) Underdog moneyline: -$1,236
3) Underdogs +1.5 Goals: -$751                            3) Ottawa to win ML+PL: -$800
 
 

My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 7: (over/under not included)

 

1) Columbus Blue Jackets, (+$648)

2) Minnesota Wild, (+$410)

3) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$322)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 7: (over/under not included)

 

1) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$1,000)

2) Calgary Flames, (-$453)

3) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$300)

 

My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 7: (over/under not included)

 

1) Vancouver Canucks, (+$661)

2) Ottawa Senators, (+$576)

3) Arizona Coyotes, (+$488)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 7: (over/under not included)

 

1) Seattle Kraken, (-$857)

2) Dallas Stars, (-$350)

3) Colorado Avalanche, (-$350)

Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.