Welcome to my Week 12 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 11 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $13,258
Omicron continued to wreak havoc on the NHL schedule this week, but it wasn’t positive Covid tests that seemed to be postponing most games, but rather attendance restrictions (especially in Canada). Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver didn’t play any games. Last week, I had the “Midas Touch” where nearly everything I touched turned to gold. But my hot hand started to cool in Week 12. Tuesday was really good, Thursday was really bad, but the weekend was prosperous, thanks in large part to the Colorado Avalanche OT victory against Toronto, and Nashville defeating Arizona.
One of the biggest news of items of week 12 was the return of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point to the Tampa Bay Lightning, which substantially increases their potency going forward. This could very well be the NHL’s best team in the 2nd half. At least that’s what was going through my mind when laying $500 on the Bolts to beat Boston. The Bruins won handily. The Avalanche were my best team of the week, the Lightning my worst team, but these could be the 2 teams who meet in the Stanley Cup final.
The Pittsburgh Penguins won 10 games in a row, but I
personally failed to generate noteworthy revenue from that run. The Pens tend to be a very
public team, especially when Crosby is healthy, so when they get hot, there can
be heavy juice on their lines. I’ve been basing many of my wagers on “line
value” during the past few weeks, so when I see a team at -300 that should be
-250, it’s hard to get excited or turn a big profit. It’s far easier to make
money when Pittsburgh is struggling.
My Week 12 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
Overs have been trending positively for the last few weeks, but the profitability did start to slow down because oddsmakers are adjusting the lines to compensate. The new Over/Under algorithm that I introduced a few weeks ago cooled off this week, but still generated a small positive return. On the season as a whole, betting on every single game, I’m up $710 on O/U (with all my wagers being between $100-$200), but would be -$800 in the red if not for Colorado overs. That has been my cash cow, with an honorable mention to Seattle overs, of course. The Vegas overs have been another Godsend, but I burned -$400 on that outcome in week 12.
One trend that has been producing big returns for most
of the season is favorites, both on the moneyline and puckline. That trend has
not shown any signs of slowing down, whereas in the past, underdogs have had
some great runs (notably the 2nd half of 2019/20). This year, the
favorites are cashing cheques, and drove my success in week 12. Yes, home teams
tend to be favored more often than not, which partially explains these results,
but road favorites are also getting it done. Granted, there generally needs to
be a significant disparity between two teams for the visitor to be favored. Home teams are winning 55.7% of games this season, which is substantially higher than either of the 2 previous seasons.
My Team of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, +$1,374
The Avalanche did not play any games from Dec 16 to Jan 2, but didn’t skip a beat. This might be the best team in the NHL, but betting them to win is not as profitable as you might think. The sportsbooks know exactly how good this team is, and it’s priced into the line offerings. This was a problem all last season. The Avs played 3 games this week, and I laid big money on them to win all 3 (moneyline only). I was not feeling adventurous enough to take the puckline, which they only covered once.
It was exciting to see the Avs only listed as -135 against Toronto, which was their lowest home line of the season to date. The Leafs are a very public team due to their large fan base, helping to jack the Avs payout. Granted, that line didn’t feel like such a bargain when Toronto went up 4-1 in the second period, but Colorado battled back and won in overtime. Their “overs” went 3-0, generating 40% of my Avs profit this week. I’ve been saying it for weeks, the Colorado overs have been crushing it. If you bet $100 on every Colorado over this season, you’re up $1,326.
My second best team of the week has been #1 in my
betting power rankings for nearly the entire season, the Arizona Coyotes. I
went all in on Nashville to beat them up on Saturday, resulting in a 4-2 win
(the puckline became too close for comfort after going up 3-0 early). I’m up
over $10,000 this season betting Arizona games. The next closest is the New
York Islanders and +$3,285.
My Worst Team of the Week: Tampa Bay Lightning, -$963
All my Lightning losses came in 2 games, but they were defensible wagers. I bet Calgary +1.5 goals because they’ve been a very strong road team, and Tampa won 4-1. That was the game that Nikita Kucherov returned to the line-up, though my bet was logged before getting confirmation that Kooch would indeed be returning that night. I’ve had success betting against the Kucherovless Lightning, but when he’s healthy, they’re tough to bet against. In their next match against Boston, I got too excited about Kucherov’s return and laid $500 on the Tampa moneyline. The Bruins won 5-2. I’m expecting this is just a blip in the radar, and that Tampa will be among my best 2nd half teams.
My second worst team of the week was the Vegas Golden Knights at -$850, thanks in large part to their home loss against Chicago on Saturday. Perhaps I should have been betting with my heart instead of my brain, as it was Marc-Andre Fleury’s emotional return to Vegas, and the goaltender stopped 30 of 31 shots for the victory. As mentioned above, I’ve been crushing Vegas overs for most of the season, but that burned me in week 12 when their defense tightened up. Robin Lehner returned from a 2-week absence to allow only 3 goals in his first 2 games back.
2) Arizona to lose ML+PL: +$931 2) Favorites moneyline: +$995
3) Colorado to win ML: +$841 3) Calgary to lose ML+PL: +$779
2) Tampa to win ML: -$500 2) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,174
3) Vegas overs: -$400 3) Nashville to lose ML+PL: -$600
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 12: (over/under not
included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$841)
2) Nashville Predators, (+$758)
3) Winnipeg Jets, (+$473)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
12: (over/under not included)
1) Tampa Bay Lightning, (-$500)
2) Washington Capitals, (-$350)
3) Calgary Flames, (-$350)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
12: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (+$931)
2) Toronto Maple Leafs, (+$370)
3) Calgary Flames, (+$313)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
12: (over/under not included)
1) Boston Bruins, (-$500)
2) Tampa Bay Lightning, (-$350)
3) Minnesota Wild, (-$200)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. It’s still a small sample size, but each week
my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just
what happened this week.
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