Welcome to my Week 14 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 13 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $14,553
After 3 consecutive weeks of outstanding performance betting on NHL games, the Hockey Gods finally dumped cold water on my hot streak. More specifically, my over/under algorithm which had been generating modest profit for the first 5 weeks of its life, got destroyed this past weekend. Losing nearly $1,000 in two days (with all bets being either $100 or $200). 16 games with 11 strikeouts. The method is very simple, what percentage of each team’s last 10 games went over or under the total, then subtract the implied probability of the odds offering. Ergo, if the algorithm failed, it’s because teams did something radically different than their recent results.
I’m not going to toss the algorithm in the garbage after one catastrophic weekend. I’ll continue using it for at least another week and provide an opportunity for redemption. We also passed the half way marker of the regular season (in terms of days with games, not total games), where I always take a defacto data census; downloading goalie game logs, analytic data, etc. I’m going to take the opportunity to test a few modifications to the algorithm in search of better results. I’ll add layers of complexity as necessary, if the simplicity approach proves insufficient.
My first big loss of the week came on Tuesday when the Montreal Canadiens (on the second half of a back-to-back) improbably beat the Stars in Dallas, who are otherwise a tough opponent on home ice. Then the Arizona Coyotes upset the Devils in New Jersey the next night, though I lost as much money on the over as I did on the Devils loss. Monday to Thursday was spent languishing near or below zero for my weekly profit, until a great Friday night.
After Friday’s games are when I write the first 400
words of this weekly report. My word selection entering the weekend was very
bullish, patting myself on the back for another job well done. Then the shit
hit the fan on Saturday. My over/under algorithm was the biggest contributor to
my terrible weekend, with the Montreal Canadiens puckline cover against
Colorado costing me another $1,000. If you delete that one game and over/under
from the sample, I actually would have had a fantastic week.
My Week 14 Results
Last week the unders were big winners, as scoring declined for 2 consecutive weeks after peaking late December. My theory was that nearly all primary starters were off Covid protocol, and that was driving the emerging trend. The 5.9 goals per game in week 13 was more of a blip in the radar, as scoring bounced back. Week 14 was the 3rd highest scoring week of the season, oddly enough, as the Florida Panthers and Colorado Avalanche mostly went under.
The league’s two highest scoring teams only went “over” twice in 8 games, which hurt me badly. The over sure felt like a safe bet when the high-octane Panthers came to Vancouver as both Canuck goalies entered Covid protocol. While a few goalies did enter Covid protocol this week, the re-emerging scoring boom was more explainable by good goalies playing badly. This became more apparent to me while preparing for my week 15 fantasy hockey waiver wire report.
You would have made a small profit by betting the over in every single game, yet my own performance betting the over was awful. Granted, I lost $718 just on the Florida and Colorado overs alone, so pulling those two teams out of the sample would convert my loss into a profit. Bad goaltending hurt me on the unders, with the Panthers and Avalanche burying me on the overs. I’m not sure that’s an indictment of my algorithm, or just a representation of the unpredictability of hockey.
I’m going to dedicate some time this week to digging
deeper into the causes of my problems last week. You can learn as much from
your defeats as your victories. Speaking of victories, it was favorites on the
moneyline that carried me these past 7 days. This has been a season-long trend that
continues to grow, though those favorites started to struggle with the
pucklines, as faves -1.5 goals was a net loser for the week across all NHL games.
Colorado vs Montreal was one example that especially hurt me.
My Team of the Week: Vancouver Canucks, +$945
My biggest win of the week occurred on Sunday, when the visiting St. Louis Blues defeated the Vancouver Canucks on home ice. The Blues were still favored because both Vancouver’s goalies were in Covid protocol. I laid $500 on the Blues moneyline and another $200 on the under, both hit, also picking the correct winner for Vancouver's games against Florida and Nashville. Vancouver went under in all 3 games, but my algorithm only recommended that once.
The Minnesota Wild were my second-best team of the
week, leading heading into Sunday, having bet the correct outcome and
over/under in all 3 of their games. The biggest share of their total was banked
in their come-from-behind victory against Chicago on Saturday. I bet the over
in all 3, and it hit in all three. While the Avalanche and Panthers shifted
from over to under, the Minnesota Wild continued delivering overs.
My Worst Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, -$1,579
The Montreal Canadiens have been in a nosedive for the entire season, after advancing to the Stanley Cup final 6 months ago. They ranked #21 in my gambling power rankings in week 7, and climbed to #5 by week 13 thanks to my profiteering from their ineffectiveness. Well, the chickens came home to roost in week 14, as the Habs had a shockingly decent week despite playing on the road, costing me dearly and plunging me into the red. They upset the Stars in Dallas, who were 14-4 at home before Monday’s game. The bigger loss came on Saturday when the Habs travelled to Colorado, where the Avs are 17-3. I laid $1,000 on the Colorado puckline -1.5 goals, but they only won by 1 in overtime.
My second worst team of the week was the Ottawa Senators
at -$1,009 losing both when picking them to win
or lose. They couldn’t beat the Buffalo Sabres at home, or lose the Columbus
Blue Jackets on the road (where the BJs are normally a really strong home team).
I also had a terrible week betting against Seattle, with their Sunday upset
against Florida being the primary driver.
2) Vancouver to lose ML: +$667 2) Philly to lose ML+PL: +$472
3) Minnesota to win ML: +$488 3) LA to lose ML+PL: +$463
2) Montreal to lose ML+PL: -$1,262 2) Philly to win ML+PL: -$655
3) Seattle to lose ML: -$867 3) Pittsburgh to lose ML+PL: -$633
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 14: (over/under not
included)
1) Minnesota Wild, (+$488)
2) St. Louis Blues, (+$476)
3) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$442)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
14: (over/under not included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (-$548)
2) Dallas Stars, (-$500)
3) Columbus Blue Jackets, (-$456)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
14: (over/under not included)
1) Vancouver Canucks, (+$667)
2) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$488)
3) Winnipeg, (+$448)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
14: (over/under not included)
1) Montreal Canadiens, (-$1,262)
2) Seattle Kraken, (-$857)
3) Ottawa Senators, (-$450)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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