Welcome to my Week 23 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 22 Betting Report. I also encourage you to check out my Third Quarter Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $21,287
Home moneylines performed exceptionally well last week, but the road warriors struck back. This wasn’t necessarily the start of a new league-wide trend, but more specifically the Islanders, Stars, and Golden Knights combined for 9 road wins (with Florida, LA, Minnesota, Toronto, St. Louis, and Rangers picking up 2 each). Dallas and Vegas are among the few teams still battling for a playoff spot. Both road favorites and underdogs were cashing tickets on the moneyline, but both struggled on the puckline. There were 34 road underdogs, and they won 16 games but only covered +1.5 goals in 20. The rate of return on underdogs increased in March, but not week 23 (thanks to a brutal performance by home dogs).
This was a bizarre week for some of the categories. There were 19 home underdogs, and they only won 3 games, but covered +1.5 goals 13 times. As a result, road favorites performed very well on the moneyline, but not the puckline. Home favorites covered -1.5 goals in 41% of games, but the lines were so expensive that they needed to win 45% to turn a profit. Last Saturday, I was ready to quit betting pucklines -1.5 goals, but decided to specifically pump the brakes betting road favorites -1.5 goals. Home favorites -1.5 goals was among my best categories in week 23, but I tried to avoid leveraging too much on the puckline, laying more bets 2 “units” on ML and one “unit” on PL.
My biggest win of the week was the Toronto Maple Leafs defeating Winnipeg 7-3. The Jets were playing a back-to-back and Kyle Connor was in Covid protocol, so I went “2 units” on the puckline and “1 unit” on the moneyline. The winner for my best team to bet against was Chicago, but I was shocked to see that the Calgary Flames were actually the most profitable team to bet against overall. The Flames went 0-3 at home (which surely contributed to the poor performance by home teams for the week) losing to Colorado, LA, and St. Louis. Calgary has now lost 6 of their last 10 games and have been cooling off.
My rate of return for all wagers this season is $1.05
per $1.00, but that would be higher if I did not bet every single game. My
return on minimum bets (moneyline or puckline) is $0.95, which brings down my
overall average. The reason I’m betting every game is so that I can learn
lessons about betting every team in order to map the market.
My Week 23 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
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My over/under algorithm bounced back this week with a modest 6.8% return (+$572), thanks to yet another outstanding performance by overs. It only recommended a 16.6% stake in unders, but even that was too much. All my lines came from Draft Kings, and they did increase the average total, but not by enough. The algorithm was especially terrible at picking the correct over/under in Montreal and Pittsburgh games, losing a combined -$1,100. If you delete those 2 teams from the sample, it would have been one of my best O/U weeks to date. I finished the week winning $1,214 on overs, with $1,268 of that coming specifically from Edmonton and New Jersey.
This week a “live betting” worksheet was added to my
betting spreadsheet, but for the time being I’ll keep that separate from my overall
results. All my bets are logged the day before games, so I’m rarely paying
attention to the live betting lines, except on the weekend when there tends to
be teams in action when I’m logging the next day’s wagers. What really
triggered me into action was Florida being +1200 down 3 goals to New Jersey
with 15 minutes left in the 3rd period. I had already bet the
Panthers moneyline the day before, so I couldn’t hedge, but it just felt like a
great bet. Florida won the game.
The Florida Panthers were +1200 on the live betting to beat New Jersey, down by 3 goals with 15 minutes left in the 3rd period. I thought to myself, well that lead isn't THAT safe. Sure enough, Panthers tied the game and won in overtime, but I did not make the bet. 🤦♂️ #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) April 2, 2022
My first two live-betting attempts were a success. Montreal and Tampa were tied 4-4 in the 3rd period with the Lightning being on a back-to-back, and the Habs were still +200 on the moneyline. They won the game. Toronto took a 3-2 lead on Philly with 10 minutes left in the 3rd period and the Leafs were still +105 on the puckline -1.5 goals. They won 6-3. I whiffed on my Sunday live bets, but only made small wagers. Detroit down 2 to Ottawa in the 2nd intermission were +950. It felt like value, but they still lost.
Speaking of live-hedging, I had a wager on the Islanders moneyline to beat New Jersey, so I put 25% of my projected winnings into the Devils +750 down 2 goals in the 2nd intermission that would have paid for my initial bet had the Isles blown their lead. They didn’t. Then in the last game of the week, I had $100 on the Seattle moneyline +135 vs Dallas, and the Stars were down 2 goals in the 3rd period and were +1100. So I put $25 on Dallas, which would have made even more profit than my initial bet had they come back (and Seattle sucks).
I’m going to continue logging live-bets and will share my observations with you. As of right now, my live-bet worksheet is entirely unconnected to the rest of my portfolio, but I could integrate the results in the summer.
My Team of the Week: New Jersey Devils, +$1,103
The New Jersey Devils were my best team this week, but not because they won hockey games. They lost every game they played, and that’s how I bet them (moneylines exclusively). Though being bad wasn’t entirely responsible for the Devils rising to the top, as they continued to be proficient at scoring goals, helping me crush their overs. There was some good luck on my part, as I laid $500 on the visiting Florida Panthers moneyline to beat NJD, and the home team had a 6-2 lead entering the 3rd period. If you believe the live-betting odds, they had less than a 10% chance of mounting a comeback.
The Colorado Avalanche were my 2nd best
team of the week. They might have lost superstar Nathan MacKinnon for their
road game against Calgary, but I had already bet them +100 before that news
broke. The line would move to +130, and the Avs pulled off a 2-1 victory thanks
to outstanding goaltending by Darcy Kuemper. I selected the correct moneyline
wager in all their games, but their unders went 3 for 3 and my algorithm recommended
the over twice. Otherwise, the Avs might have been my best team.
My Worst Team of the Week: Los Angeles Kings, -$768
The Los Angeles Kings have been by far my worst team to bet this season, sitting dead last in my power rankings since December. If I were betting with real money, I just wouldn’t lay another penny on their games. But since I’m forcing myself to log a wager on every game, I decided to try a new strategy with LA, flipping a coin. My performance has been so brutal, that surely choosing bets at random would yield better results. Wrong. Let’s just say, the coin was awful. Problem was, the coin came up heads 6 times in 8 tosses, but also, the Kings got hammered 6-1 by Seattle, then 2 nights later beat Calgary. That’s the kind of Jekyll and Hyde output that’s been killing me all season.
One of my biggest losses of the week came on Friday
night when the New York Islanders (on the second night of a back-to-back)
defeated their cross-town rival Rangers. Those same Rangers would haunt me
again on Sunday, when they faced the terrible Flyers on the 2nd half
of a back-to-back, and once again lost. Consecutive games where they lost to a
team playing on consecutive nights. Martin Jones outperforming Igor Shesterkin
is what they call in this business a “bad beat”.
2) Over: +$1,214 2) Over: +$903
3) Avalanche to win ML: +$935 3) Calgary to lose ML+PL: +$711
2) Home favorites moneyline: -$704 2) Under: -$1,268
3) Under: -$642 3) Chicago to win ML+PL: -$800
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 23: (over/under not
included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$935)
2) Florida Panthers, (+$838)
3) Toronto Maple Leafs, (+$581)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
23: (over/under not included)
1) New York Rangers, (-$888)
2) Calgary Flames, (-$500)
3) Washington Capitals, (-$350)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
23: (over/under not included)
1) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$750)
2) Winnipeg Jets, (+$640)
3) New Jersey Devils, (+$570)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
23: (over/under not included)
1) New York Islanders, (-$700)
2) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$477)
3) Los Angeles Kings, (-$450)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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