Welcome to my Week 25 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 24 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $21,202
Last week was my worst of the season, and when I sat down to write the first 500 words of this report on Friday, I was only up $345. My confidence had been shaken and my performance was mostly melancholy heading into the weekend, before hitting the jackpot on Saturday and Sunday. Half the credit goes to my over/under algorithm, the rest goes to favorites on the moneyline (special thanks to Florida and Colorado). I mostly shied away from favorites -1.5 goals on the puckline, as they had posted negative returns in 6 of the previous 7 weeks. However, they bounced back strong with their best return since mid-March (the 3 largest contributors being 1. Colorado, 2. St. Louis, 3. Washington).
A big chunk of the blame for my atrocious Week 24 fell on repeated violations of the “law of back-to-backs”, with unrested teams going 9-5 against rested opponents. Due to the schedule being stacked heavily on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, we did not see nearly as many B2Bs. My biggest B2B loss was the Montreal Canadiens failing to beat an unrested opponent twice. Whereas my best performing back-to-back team was Colorado; who beat a tired Los Angeles team, then beat a rested New Jersey squad the next night. To read more about Montreal and Colorado, scroll down to my best and worst teams of the week section.
It was a bad week overall for underdogs, except if you were laying money on those who were +300 or higher on the moneyline. The lines on heavy favorites continue to be prohibitively expensive. I’ve said this many times and it’s worth repeating, never pay -400 (or worse -500) for a moneyline. I don’t care who the teams are. It doesn’t matter if the Zamboni driver is the starting goalie, nothing in this league is a lock. Even a hot Zamboni driver can steal an NHL game. We had 7 teams who were favored by at least -400 on the moneyline, winning 5, but only covering -1.5 goals 3 times. If you bet $100 on all the underdogs +1.5 goals in those games exclusively, you banked $215 of profit (though you went 0-2 on the weekend). That was how I managed to turn a profit +1.5 goals, coming mostly from longshots.
Home teams bounced back after 2 consecutive losing weeks, winning more than 60% of the games, but the line prices were so expensive that did not translate into profit. As previously mentioned, we had 7 home teams with at least a -400 line, which was more than we had in the entire 2019/20 season. Colorado went 3-0 at home, with Dallas, Tampa, Calgary, Nashville, and Vancouver all picking up two each. Meanwhile, San Jose, New Jersey, Arizona, Anaheim, and Philadelphia combined for 11 road losses. Good teams won at home, and bad teams lost on the road.
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If you bet $100 on every over this week, you generated $855 of profit. As mentioned above, it was a big week for my over/under algorithm which had been a net loser in 3 of the previous 4 weeks, but won back most of the money it had lost. Overs deserve most of the credit, but the algorithm produced a nice return on unders too. Since its creation at the All-Star break, I’m up $6,807 on $81,000 wagered for an 8.4% rate of return. Goal scoring recovered, and overs had a really big week. The teams that did the lion’s share of the heavy lifting on my successful overs run were 1. Washington, 2. Toronto, 3. Arizona, 4. Philly, 5. Buffalo (which of course, there was overlap in Buffalo-Philly).
After disappointing results in the previous weeks, I was beginning to wonder if it might be prudent to go “back to formula” feeling like Norman Osborne in the first Tobey MaGuire Spider-man movie. Scoring was fluctuating and the algorithm seemed to be struggling with shifting trends, but when there’s a week that teams behave predictably, it more than makes up for the bad weeks. This was the 2nd largest stake that it recommended for unders since February, and turned a profit despite unders being a big loser overall. I’ve already shared multiple times how to calculate this it on your own. Avg GF+GA the last 5 games for each team. Is that over or under the total? Wickedly simple, and returning 8.5% since the All-Star break.
It’s important to point out, I’m logging most of these lines at around noon pacific time the day before the game. The starting goalies tend to be unconfirmed when I’m placing these bets. I’m sure a lot of sharps prefer to know who the goalies will be, but that the lines also move when that information becomes public. It would be interesting to know how the algorithm performed using the totals/lines at puck drop (which unfortunately I don’t track). It might very well be more profitable to ignore starting goalies and bet blind. If you wait to find out if Igor Shesterkin is going to be starting, you’ll only have a matter of seconds or minutes before the line adjusts to compensate.
I continued logging some live betting lines, and while there were a few encouraging observations, but nothing too exciting. Live-hedging still has not produced a profit, but good teams falling behind to bad teams may yield positive value (except that it’s a net loser if you remove Florida from my sample). Keep in mind, I’m only recording live lines and the score when they are of interest to me, so I’m not able to make concrete proclamations about the overall market. I did have one great live-hedge, where I had already bet Ottawa +1.5 goals against Toronto, and bet the Leafs moneyline at +235 when they fell behind 2 goals in the 2nd period. The Leafs won in overtime, and both bets were winners. However, my previous attempts to use this tactic were unsuccessful.
Here's a perfect "live-hedge". I already bet Buffalo +1.5 goals at +145. They are up 4-1 against Toronto in the 3rd period, and the Leafs are +1100. If I put $45 of my projected winnings on Toronto, I get nearly $500 if the Leafs manage a comeback, $100 if they lose. #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) April 13, 2022
A great live-hedge tonight. I had already bet Ottawa +1.5 goals at -110. They took a 2-goal lead in the 2nd period and the Toronto moneyline went to +235. I put half my projected winnings on the Leafs, who won the game in overtime, so both bets were winners. 💰💰 #NHLBetting
— Hockey Economist (@Hockeconomics) April 17, 2022
My Team of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, +$782
The Colorado Avalanche captured my top spot for the 2nd consecutive week, narrowly beating out Florida, Buffalo and Philadelphia as my most profitable team to wager. I laid down $500 on the moneyline for the Avs to win all 3 of their games at home, which they did. They outscored their opponents 19-8, and covered the puckline -1.5 goals in all 3 games. Technically I could have made much more money by betting the puckline instead of the moneyline, but those pucklines had been performing poorly the previous 2 weeks. There was a good reason to play it safe, and I can’t complain about my performance overall.
One team that did solicit my puckline investment was
Florida, though a majority of my money was still on their moneyline. I’ve been
using a “2 unit ML and 1 unit PL” strategy with Florida a lot lately, and
they’re #2 in my betting Power Rankings. I had a really good week with Philly
and Buffalo, but a majority of that came from over/under (specifically overs in
the 2 games they played against each other).
My Worst Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, -$760
The Montreal Canadiens had one of the most appealing fantasy hockey schedules in Week 25, with a few of their players joining my own teams. Despite that increased focus, I performed terribly trying to pick the outcome of their games. I bet them to win all 4 games (albeit small wagers), and they lost them all. First, they played a Jets team on a back-to-back, then the struggling Blue Jackets, then an Islanders team on back-to-back. I even picked them at home to beat Washington, mostly because I didn't want to pay -270 for the Caps. They went 0-4, and I went 0-4. Carey Price made a surprise return on Friday night, so maybe I’ll bet them to win a few down the stretch.
I lost more money betting Habs games than from 2nd and 3rd place combined. Picking the Senators to lose was my second
worst wager of the week. Despite my solid output in week 25, my results betting
underdogs was disappointing.
2) Over: +$1,375 2) Favorites moneyline: +$886
3) Colorado to win ML: +$782 3) Over: +$855
2) Montreal to win ML: -$550 2) Under: -$1,335
3) Ottawa to lose ML: -$350 3) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,008
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 25: (over/under not
included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$782)
2) Florida Panthers, (+$688)
3) St. Louis Blues, (+$337)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
25: (over/under not included)
1) Montreal Canadiens, (-$550)
2) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$250)
3) Detroit Red Wings, (-$200)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
25: (over/under not included)
1) San Jose Sharks, (+$380)
2) Winnipeg Jets, (+$314)
3) Philadelphia Flyers, (+$298)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
25: (over/under not included)
1) Ottawa Senators, (-$350)
2) Washington Capitals, (-$200)
3) 4 Teams tied, (-$100)
Team By Team Power Rankings
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