Monday, April 11, 2022

2021/22 NHL Week 24 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 24 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 23 Betting Report.

My Weekly Profit: -$2,920
My Season Profit: $18,368

This week’s gambling report will be like an autopsy in the aftermath of a grizzly homicide, with me acting as the CSI team trying to uncover the killer. This was my worst week of the entire season, but no single entity was solely responsible. There were multiple conspirators involved, but home moneyline inflicted the deadliest blow with the hosts having their second consecutive bad week. Chicago did the most individual damage to my betting results while on home ice, failing to beat Seattle and Dallas, two visitors who both played the night before.

Home moneyline might have been holding the murder weapon this week, but it had an accomplice. Rested teams (a majority on home ice) facing opponents on the 2nd half of back-to-back games went a combined 5 for 14, costing me -$1,234 from Monday to Sunday (technically this trend started around March 23rd). Teams on road trips are more likely to play on consecutive nights, but you’ll always get a higher rate of return when the road team has the rest advantage. Home teams are more likely to be favored, so when they face an unrested visitor, there’s more juice on the line. You get a fairer line when the road team is rested and the home team played the night before.


In the last 2 weeks, there were 9 different teams who went a combined 0-30 at home, and they were mostly non-playoff teams (aside from Calgary). During that same span, Dallas, Edmonton, Florida, Calgary, Colorado, Toronto, Vegas, and both New York teams combined for 32 road wins. There were 21 home underdogs this week, and they only won 4 games, but covered +1.5 goals 14 times. If dogs +1.5 did well, that also means that favorites -1.5 goals performed poorly. If you bet $100 on each, you lost -$979 for the week. It could have been worse had they not gone 5-2 on Sunday.

 
Technically favorites had a higher rate of return than underdogs on the moneyline, but were not an especially profitable category. The number of -400 lines is getting ridiculous compared to the previous 2 seasons. They were supposed to be incredibly rare, but have become commonplace. Those giant favorites are winning 71% of their games, but you need at least 80% from that category to break even. Their pucklines are hitting in 57%, but you need 61% to break even. It’s just not a smart bet to make. Hot goalies steal games all the time, even in a David vs Goliath mismatch.

 

My Week 24 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

As alluded to above, this was another bad week for my over/under algorithm. Goal scoring dropped by 7% while the betting totals went up, nerfing the profitability. The books were able to get their lines right into the sweet spot where both sides were losers. Early in the week my algorithm was recommending almost entirely overs, but by the weekend, it started pumping unders. The algorithm only looks at the last 5 games, so it can take a week to adjust to shifting trends. One of my biggest losers was Columbus overs, which is my best season-long O/U wager. They went 1-3 this week. 

Last week I started recording “live bets of interest” writing down some lines with the score of the game and time on the clock, but not officially making any wagers. It’s more or less so that at the end of the season I’ll be able to estimate rates of return of certain live bet scenarios and whether or not “live hedging” is a viable strategy. Though if I really wanted to estimate real probabilities of deficits being erased, I would need to add the score of the game at the end of every period to every game in my database.  And if I wanted to calculate the real rate of return, I’d also need to be recording the live lines at the end of every period for every game, but that’s more work than I’m willing to do at this point (I also have a job and can't be at my computer at the end of every period).

Of the 24 live lines I’ve recorded, if I had laid down $10 on each, I’d be down -$29.98. Thus far, all the “live hedging” opportunities did not hit, and my original bet was a winner. Frankly, too often the team I’ve bet on has fallen behind early, so while I’ve been monitoring the lines, there have not been any live hedging opportunities that I found appealing. I’m looking for opportunities where I can wager a small portion of my projected winnings (up to 1/3) that would also cover the cost of the initial wager and guarantee a profit with either outcome. Those aren't coming along very often, and tend to be later in the 3rd period.


 

My Team of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, +$372

I’ll have to go back and check my records, but this is likely the lowest total profit from any of my “teams of the week” this entire season, which makes sense given this week was my biggest loser. The Colorado Avalanche jumped into an early lead thanks entirely to their 6-3 victory against Pittsburgh on Tuesday. The first place Avalanche were actually +100 underdogs against a Penguins team that was 5-5 in their previous 10 games. Sure, the match was being played in Pittsburgh, but the Pens actually have more wins on the road than at home on the season.

Since January 2021, the Avs moneyline has been greater than zero only 8 times, and I picked Colorado in 7 of those. If I see an Avs moneyline getting plus money, it’s irresistible to me. Note that 3 of those 8 games were against Vegas in the playoffs, and they lost the series. On Friday, the Avs choked away a 2-goal lead vs Winnipeg late in the 3rd period, then won in overtime. Then they played the next night in Edmonton (with my money on the home team), sneaking out a 2-1 win against a hot Oilers squad (add that to the road back-to-backs that killed my week).

The Minnesota Wild were my 2nd best team of the week, which came almost entirely from overs. That was actually my #1 best over/under wager for week 24, Minnesota over. The Wild have been a strong over pick for most of the season. If you bet $100 on every Wild over this season, you’re up $1,157, which ranks them 3rd behind Columbus and Florida in that category. Although, Minnesota unders had generated positive returns for the previous 3 weeks.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Philadelphia Flyers, -$1,100

The Columbus Blue Jackets and Philadelphia Flyers were my worst two teams this week, thanks to the 2 games they played against each other. I bet the home team in each game, and the visitor emerged victorious. Both games also went under when I bet the over. The Flyers hosted Anaheim on Saturday, and the visiting Ducks won. I bet the under, and it went over. Philly only played 3 games, and that’s all it took for them to finish dead last in my weekly standings. The road team won every Flyers game, costing me -$600 (with the other -$500 coming from the blown O/U bets).

The Blue Jackets weren’t far behind, though I only incurred a small loss in their non-Flyer games. In weeks 20 & 21, the BJs went 4-3 and their overs went 5-2, after which they briefly captured the top spot in my year-long gambling Power Rankings. Then in weeks 22-24 they won only twice in 10 games and their overs went 5-5. They have now fallen significantly behind Arizona in my ranks.


 
My 3 Best Bets of Week 24:                                 Best Market Bets of Week 24:
 
1) Road moneyline: +$1,082                                  1) Washington to win ML+PL: +$662
2) Colorado to win ML+PL: +$644                       2) Road moneyline: +$660
3) Pittsburgh to lose ML: +$520                            3) Rangers to win ML+PL: +$647
 
My 3 Worst Bets of Week 24:                              Worst Market Bets of Week 24:
 
1) Home moneyline: -$2,369                                 1) Home moneyline: -$1,626
2) Bets vs teams on back-to-backs: -$1,234          2) Favorites -1.5 goals: -$979
3) Overs: -$575                                                      3) St. Louis to lose ML+PL: -$657
 
 

My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 24: (over/under not included)

 

1) Colorado Avalanche, (+$644)

2) Calgary Flames, (+$325)

3) New York Islanders, (+$275)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 24: (over/under not included)

 

1) Chicago Blackhawks, (-$500)

2) San Jose Sharks, (-$450)

3) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$350)

 

My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 24: (over/under not included)

 

1) Pittsburgh Penguins, (+$520)

2) Arizona Coyotes, (+$314)

3) Carolina Hurricanes, (+$175)

 

My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 24: (over/under not included)

 

1) Vancouver Canucks, (-$450)

2) Buffalo Sabres, (-$365)

3) New York Rangers, (-$300)

 

Team By Team Power Rankings


These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.




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