Welcome to my Week 27 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 26 Betting Report.
My Season Profit: $21,504
The 2021/22 regular season is finally over, and the playoffs start tomorrow. The final week was moderately fruitful, especially if you were betting underdogs, who had their best week of the entire season as playoff teams began resting their best players. It was specifically home dogs that drove my own success, such as Chicago +185 vs Vegas, Columbus +220 vs Tampa, Arizona +230 vs Nashville, and I had the Montreal moneyline at +260 when they crushed the Florida Panthers AHL affiliate 10-2.
Favorites -1.5 goals had been delivering great results heading into the final week, and I decided in last week’s report to invest more in that category as the schedule concluded. Bad idea. There was an especially compressed schedule at the end of the season with a lot of back-to-backs, so resting stars became a bigger priority than usual. I had picked both Minnesota and Dallas -1.5 goals against Arizona, with the Coyotes winning both games outright. At that point my strategy flipped underdog heavy for the last few nights.
The Yotes were on their way to being my worst team of the week after those mighty upsets against playoff teams. Then I bet them +260 to beat Nashville along with the over, and the Preds took a 4-0 lead in the 1st period. Arizona won 5-4. If you bet the live line on Arizona to win 10 minutes into that game, you would have cashed a giant ticket. If you bet the Yotes to win every game, you also banked some serious coin, as they won all 3 games as +425, +360, and +230 underdogs. They finished the season in the#1 spot of my betting Power Rankings, $757 ahead of Florida.
One thing that concerns me heading into the playoffs is
that I won $25,342 this season betting on games involving non-playoff teams,
but lost -$3,212 on games involving only playoff
teams (though that likely would have been above zero if the LA Kings failed to
qualify). To help me solve this potential problem, I deleted non-playoff teams
from the game database that my algorithms use to estimate probabilities. The
first thing that jumped out at me was my success betting Calgary and Tampa to
lose against other playoff teams. I’m hoping not to lose money on over/under
bets in the first few playoff games as it adjusts to a potential defensive
shift in the playoffs. Here are my modified Power Rankings if you only count games with playoff teams.
I have officially logged my bets for game 1 of each opening round series, placing my largest wager on the Panthers moneyline vs Washington, also throwing down “1 unit” on the Rangers moneyline vs Pittsburgh. My only other wager of consequence was the Leafs moneyline vs Tampa, but that’s complicated. It’s not a bet I’m endorsing, but rather as a Leafs hater I’ll be emotionally traumatized if they finally enjoy some playoff success, and need a hedge against that possible (however unlikely) trauma. All the other games, I bet my minimum on underdogs +1.5 goals, as some of the favorite moneylines felt unusually expensive considering it is playoff hockey.
I’m not filling out a bracket this year, as my last 2 attempts
to do so have failed miserably. I’m not predicting series winners, just logging
my wagers one day at a time.
My Week 27 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
.png)
My O/U algorithm wrapped up the season with an adequate performance. It had a massive Tuesday, then bled back some of those winnings in the final few nights amid the mass benchings that obstructed predictability. It won $1,360 on Tuesday and Wednesday, then lost -$581 on Thursday and Friday. The newest version of my algorithm placed 601 wagers and produced $6,374 in profit for a 6.7% rate of return. It wants me to go heavy on overs for the playoff game ones, but I’m considering overruling, as I’m expecting scoring to drop in the post-season.
The final tally on my log of live bets was a net
loser. Later this summer I’ll dissect the results for patterns, but my attempts
at live hedging were often not required. Though it’s emotionally satisfying
when a live hedge hits, especially when against long odds. When you bet an
underdog +1.5 goals and they take an early lead, betting the favorite moneyline
can still cash out both bets. In 13 total hedges, only one was a winner. It’s a
small sample, but not encouraging.
My Team of the Week: Florida Panthers, +$887
It shouldn’t come as any surprise to you seeing the Florida Panthers atop my bet ranks for this week, given that they are #2 in my season-long Power Rankings and just won the President’s Trophy. What you probably didn’t expect is that a majority of those winnings came from Panthers to lose, and unders. For most of the season; Florida Ws and overs were a big revenue generator for me, but that shifted in the final week. They rested several key players in their last 2 games, the first of which I was already invested in Panthers -1.5 goals vs Ottawa when I learned of their mass benching. Thankfully they won 4-0. I took Montreal to win and the over in their last game, which was my most profitable game of the week.
The Tampa Bay Lightning were my 2nd best
team of the week, and their fourth quarter games quietly produced more profit
for my portfolio than any other team (by a wide margin too). I have been riding
a 6-week Lightning hot streak, though as explained above, I may need to bet the
Leafs in their playoff series as “emotional trauma insurance”. This is a
strategy that I would only recommend if you hate the Leafs as much as I do, though
I’m at the farthest edge of the Leafs hate spectrum.
My Worst Team of the Week: Winnipeg Jets, -$555
The Winnipeg Jets earned the distinction of my worst team of the week by beating the Seattle Kraken in the final game of the regular season, while also hitting the over, costing me -$300. I successfully bet them as home underdogs to beat Calgary, but burned -$300 on Flyers to win and the over when Eric Comrie pitched a 35-save shutout. I’ve been struggling with the Jets all season, so it’s no surprise to see them in this position.
Coincidently, the Flyers were my second worst team of
the week thanks largely to that aforementioned Jets game. Then I laid $250 on a
rested Philly team to beat Ottawa on a back-to-back, and the youthful Senators
won 4-2 (at least in that game, I hit the under at 6.5). The Flyers went 0-3
against non-playoff teams to close the season.
2) Over: +$595 2) Home moneyline: +$1,079
3) Nashville overs: +$564 3) Underdogs moneyline: +$1,020
2) Home favorites -1.5 goals: -$596 2) Unders: -$643
3) Colorado to win ML+PL: -$500 3) Road favorites moneyline: -$585
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 27: (over/under not
included)
1) Montreal Canadiens, (+$370)
2) Tampa Bay Lightning, (+$310)
3) Chicago Blackhawks, (+$270)
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
27: (over/under not included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, (-$500)
2) Dallas Stars, (-$417)
3) Philadelphia Flyers, (-$350)
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
27: (over/under not included)
1) Florida Panthers, (+$375)
2) Washington Capitals, (+$356)
3) Columbus Blue Jackets, (+$310)
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
27: (over/under not included)
1) Arizona Coyotes, (-$750)
2) Carolina Hurricanes, (-$350)
3) Winnipeg Jets, (-$200)
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week. These are also my final Power Rankings of the regular season, as next week will be for playoffs only.
No comments:
Post a Comment