Monday, May 9, 2022

2021/22 NHL Week 28 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 28 NHL Betting Report, which have some formatting changes for the playoffs. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 27 Betting Report.

My Weekly Profit: -$487

The playoffs started last Monday, which was day 1 of week 28, so this report covers the first seven days of round 1, summarizing 28 games. It was a losing week for me, as I struggled with 3 series in particular, which you can read about below. Definitely the big winners through 7 days were home teams (moneyline & puckline), overs, and “zig zags” (laying money on the loser of the previous game). I even wrote a Tweet before the playoffs explaining it as a popular strategy in past years that yielded negative returns in 2021. They came roaring back in 2022, with a 65% winning percentage thus far. If you bet $100 on each, you’re up $593.



I’m not sure precisely what science is behind that phenomenon, but it seems to be tied to motivation/desperation. If you win, you’re more comfortable the next night, whereas if you fall behind, there’s more anxiety and adrenaline. There is more pressure on you to win, and while some teams can and do fold under those conditions, others increase their effort. The catch is, you’d think every player would give 100% effort in every playoff game. Giving it 110% is not physically possible. It feels more plausible that winners get too comfortable or complacent.



My 3 Best Bets of Week 28:                                 Best Market Bets of Week 28:
 
1) Over: +$545                                                       1) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$1,142
2) Zig zag bets ML+PL: +$500                             2) Zig zag moneyline: +$593
3) Boston/Carolina over: +$493                            3) Overs: +$564
 

My 3 Worst Bets of Week 28:                              Worst Market Bets of Week 28:
 
1) Under: -$526                                                      1) Under: -$896
2) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$422                    2) Road moneyline: -$638
3) Carolina to win ML+PL: -$350                         3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$576
 
 

My Week 28 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

I had concerns about how my over/under algorithm would perform in the first round of the playoffs when it was still relying on regular season data. For the first few days of the playoffs, I decided to reduce O/U bet size to $100 each, instead of increasing to $200 on the games it liked the most. It quickly became clear that goal scoring was not down at all, and we can proceed full-steam ahead using regular season data. By game 6 of round 1, it will be using entirely playoff-based data.



The algorithm was mostly revenue neutral for the first 7 days, making $19 in profit. Through the first 16 games, over/unders were 8-8 with both sides losing money if you bet them every game. I even Tweeted that stat at that moment, and by the end of the first week, they were 18-10.


 
Dallas vs Calgary: +$373

Three games into this series, the Dallas Stars are leading the massively favored Flames 2 games to 1. The Stars covered +1.5 goals in all 3 games, a bet that I was on early because the Flames lines were uncomfortably expensive. This has been the lowest scoring series thus far, with unders going 2-1 (but would have been 3-0 without the empty net goal with 1 second remaining in game 3). My bets in this series are 5-1. I’ve got Stars at home in game 4, which is boldly going against the zig zag, but road zags aren’t faring as well.

  

Toronto vs Tampa: +$161
 
The series is tied 2-2, with a perfect zig zagging record. I’ve been riding the Leafs since game 1, and have been a net loser when picking the winner. What’s got me in the black is the overs, which I've bet in every game and they are 3-1. I’m going to take the Leafs in game 5 as the home zig zag, and once again bet the over.

  
 
Edmonton vs Los Angeles: +$58
 
I’ve generated a small profit on this series, but no one team or category deserves the credit. The series is tied 2-2, but the Oilers are outscoring the Kings 17-10. They’re going back to Edmonton for game 5, where I’ll be betting the Oilers as the home zig zag. That’s my theme for the first 2 days of week 2, go big on home zig zags.
 

New York vs Pittsburgh: +$41
 
This series started with me striking out on the Rangers moneyline, but picked the zig zag for the next 2 games, winning both bets. The reason this series doesn’t rank higher on my series standings is because my algorithm is 0-3 on their unders. Pittsburgh’s goal has been devastated by injuries and Igor Shesterkin hasn’t been the same guy; so for game 4, I’m taking the Rangers zig zag and the over (although the game being in Pittsburgh makes me nervous).
 
 
Carolina vs Boston: +$20
 
The series is tied 2-2, but I’m only 1-3 picking the winner of those games. These teams have not been obeying zig zag law, but rather the home team has instead been winning every match. The only reason I’m above zero is because their overs are 4-0, and my O/U algorithm is 4-0 on this series. So for game 5, I’m betting Carolina at home and the over, which might be a good parlay.
 
 
Minnesota vs St. Louis: -$347
 
Another series tied 2-2, where zig zags are 2-1, home teams are 2-2, and overs are 2-2. It’s an even series, but each game has been won by at least 3 goals. None of the games have been close, yet they’re tied. -$320 of my losses came from over/under wagers, as my algorithm has struggled with this series. My “moneyline value” algorithms aren’t doing much better. I would consider betting underdogs +1.5 goals for the rest of the series, but no loser has yet come within 1.5 goals of the winner. I’m taking Minnesota at home for game 5, but am not terribly confident betting any outcome.
 
 
Florida vs Washington: -$375
 
The Washington Capitals have a 2-1 lead on the Florida Panthers, despite being big underdogs for each match. Most of my losses have come from over/under, going 0-3. The betting total was 6.5 in each, and the number of goals scored was 6, 6, 7. Two more goals and overs would have been 3-0. For game 3, I’ll be taking Washington at home because Florida is not nearly as good on the road, although zig zagging would favor Florida.
 
 
Colorado vs Nashville: -$419
 
The toughest series for me to wager thus far has been Colorado and Nashville. I took the Predators +1.5 in game 1 before finding out that Juuse Saros would miss the first two games. The Avs blew them out, so I flipped my pick in game 2 to Colorado -1.5 goals. Then Connor Ingram had a miraculous 49-save performance, which the Avs won in overtime. That Ingram performance inspired me to revert back to my original Nashville +1.5 goals wager for game 3, which unraveled into another Colorado blowout. I’m going back to the Avalanche puckline for game 4.

  

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