Welcome to my Week 29 NHL Betting Report, which
will cover the entire first round of the NHL playoffs, not just the last 7 days
worth of games. I’ve switched up my format for the playoffs. It should be noted
that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a
spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on
every game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every
game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for
macroeconomic analysis. Click here to see my Week 28 Betting Report. Or click here to read my Fourth Quarter Betting Report.
My 1st Round Profit: $913
The first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs is in the history
books, and after a bad week 1, I rebounded strong in week 2. I was actually
having one of my best weeks of the entire season until the first round of Game
7s happened Saturday night and I lost -$1,258.
That’s when overs suddenly went ice cold, going 0-3. Some of that loss was
recaptured on Sunday, when I went +$630. The final results, I was really good
at betting 3 series, bad at 3 others, and close to zero on the remaining two. Looking
forward at round 2, my performance will hopefully improve now that my bane the
Los Angeles Kings have been officially eliminated.
The big winners in round 1 were favorites puckline,
home teams (who were favored in 72.5% of the games), and overs. My reversal of
fortune involved going “all in” on home favorites -1.5 goals; though mostly
went 2 units ML, 1 unit PL, Colorado notwithstanding. While my ass is firmly
planted on the -1.5 goals bandwagon, I’m skeptical this trend will continue as
strong as it has been when the skill gap between the teams gets smaller. I had
a lot of success +1.5 goals in the previous playoffs, but don’t know how to
feel in this strange new world drunk on empty net goals. I’m going exclusively
home moneyline for games 1 of round 2, preferring to wait and see if the trend
continues.
Seven days into round 1, there was a high success rate
of “zig zag” bets (65%), where you bet the loser of the previous games. However,
that declined significantly in week 2, all the way down to 54.5%. I finished +$213
betting zags with a 4.8% rate of return. On one hand, the Tampa-Toronto series
was almost a perfect zig zag (had the Leafs not blown game 7), while
Colorado-Nashville had no zig zags. Blues-Wild didn’t zag well either. Now that some
of the weaker teams have been eliminated, zig zags might be a better play in
round 2. I'll continue to monitor the results and keep you posted.
Overs crushed unders by a wide margin, and my
algorithm finished the first round +$632. Goal scoring did actually decline in round
1, but only from 6.54 to 6.43. I might have had a great round 1 betting overs,
but I’m not entirely convinced the trend will continue into round 2 when the talent
gap between the teams narrows. Though which side I’m betting is not
my “choice”, as I’m just doing whatever my algorithm tells me to do. For round
2: it recommended Tampa-Florida under 7, St. Louis-Colorado over 6.5, Carolina-Rangers
over 6, and Calgary-Edmonton under 6 (I’m nervous about this one, given that
Jake Oettinger’s spectacular series vs Calgary factored into the
recommendation).
My Round 1 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
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My 3 Best
Bets of Round 1: Best Market Bets of Round 1:
1) Over: +$1,199 1) Favorites
-1.5 goals: +$1,617
2) Favorites moneyline: +$982 2) Over: +$849
3) Pittsburgh-New York overs: +$748 3) Home favorites moneyline:
+$638
My 3 Worst
Bets of Round 1: Worst Market Bets of Round 1:
1) Underdogs moneyline: -$610 1) Under: -$1,413
2) Toronto to win: -$608 2) Road
moneyline: -$1,273
3) Under: -$567 3)
Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$1,068
New York vs
Pittsburgh: +$1,427
The Pittsburgh Penguins took a 3-1 series lead on the
New York Rangers and lost in seven games. I went 0-3 on unders to start the
series, but I went big on overs for the last 4 games, and all of them hit. The
rest of my profit came from betting the Rangers, which included hitting some
puckline bets. The Rangers coming back from a 3-1 deficit was lucrative for my
portfolio, and my bet size increased when Crosby was banged up. I was confident
New York would win this series, but have very little confidence in Ranger success
for the remainder of the playoffs.
Carolina vs
Boston: +$790
The home team won every game in this series, and
covered -1.5 goals in 6 of 7. Once I figured this out, this series became much
more profitable. The Carolina Hurricanes emerged victorious having earned the
higher seed. Not only was I reaping the benefits of the home squads, but their
overs also went 5-1-1. Game 7 was the only game in which the over and home
puckline -1.5 goals didn’t hit, which led me to a small loss in the final
contest. I’ll be riding the Hurricanes in the next round, at least when they’re
at home.
Dallas vs
Calgary: +$713
The Calgary Flames were expected to crush the Dallas Stars,
but it took 7 games and overtime to seal the deal. My money was on the Stars
for the first 6 games, mostly because the Flames line price was higher than it
should have been (though all those bets were my minimum amount). But game 7 at
home, Calgary finally solicited my investment. My algorithm recommended the
under in all 7 games, which accounted for $342 of my series profit. I’m betting
the Flames moneyline for game 1 against Edmonton. As mentioned above, my
algorithm recommended the under, but there is some Dallas statistical residue
in that forecast, which makes me nervous.
Colorado vs
Nashville: $25
The Colorado Avalanche swept the Nashville Predators,
and this series was my biggest loser through the first 3 games (thanks to
losing -$450 on game two: Avs puckline and the
over courtesy of a Connor Ingram 49-save night), but I was able to dig myself
out of that hole by winning $444 on the last game, hitting the Avs puckline
and the over. I stayed away from the Colorado moneyline, given that they were
very heavily favored in every match. If you bet $10 on every Avs moneyline, you
only walked away with $14 of profit. St. Louis could give them trouble in the
next round, but I’m betting Avs moneyline in game 1.
Toronto vs
Tampa: -$21
The defending champions eliminated the Toronto Maple
Leafs in 7 games, and my strategy for most of the series involved some
combination of home team, zig zag, and reverse jinx attempts. It felt like the
perfect galactic alignment to bet a Leafs win in game 7, and they blew it. I’d
like to think the loss is all my fault, since the Leafs are unquestionably
worse when I bet them to win (and I’ve got empirical evidence to prove it). I also finished with $494 of profit betting the overs in this series, which helped offset the money lost on Toronto to win. The
Lightning may have won, but the manner in which they did it doesn’t make me
eager to bet them in round 2, especially with Andrei Vasilevskiy’s .897 SV% and
the injury to Brayden Point.
Minnesota
vs St. Louis: -$274
The St. Louis Blues defeated the Minnesota Wild in 6
games, and I was really struggling with this series before winning $526 on the
final game. It was on its way to being much worse. I lost -$329 on the over/unders, which went 3-3. O/U aside, my
strategy was mostly just defaulting to the home team, doing so in 5 of 6 games.
Home teams went 3-3 and zig zags went 2-3. There wasn’t a specific strategy
that would have been effective in this series, unless that strategy was St.
Louis to win. They also won all 4 games by at least 3 goals. This Blues team is
scrappy and could steal a few from Colorado, but I like the Avs to win that
series.
Florida vs
Washington: -$746
The Florida Panthers defeated the Washington Capitals in 6 games, and
what really kicked my ass with this one was over/unders. They went 3-3, with my
algorithm recommending the wrong outcome in every single game. On moneylines
and pucklines, I only lost -$46, compared to -$700 on O/U. Every game had between 5-8 goals. The
Panthers were heavily favored in all 6 games, and covered -1.5 goals only
twice. Their fate in the next series should depend entirely on the play of
Sergei Bobrovsky, who only posted a .906 SV% against Washington. But Vasilevskiy
hasn’t been great either, and I have more confidence in the Florida offense. I’m
taking the Florida moneyline in game 1.
Edmonton vs
Los Angeles: -$1,001
The Kings took a 3-2 series lead on the Oilers, but
could not secure a ticket to round 2. This series finished as my worst, but that makes
perfectly logical sense given that the Kings were my worst team to bet all
season. So spectacularly bad was my
performance that it made me start suspecting that maybe my bets had the power
to affect the outcome of the game. The butterfly effect is real. I really
wanted the Oilers to win, and decided to help their cause by placing larger
than usual wagers on the Kings to win game 6 & 7. Mission accomplished. I’ll
be cheering for the Oilers in the Battle of Alberta, but I’m not confident
enough in Edmonton to put any money on them yet.
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