Monday, November 14, 2022

2022/23 NHL Week 5 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 5 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 4 Betting Report.

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My Weekly Profit: $752

My Season Profit: $3,836

American Thanksgiving is right around the corner, the day when the NHL playoff race officially gets decided, and this week I need to give thanks for unders. The only reason that I’m here to report another week of positive returns is because my over/under algorithm crushed unders (especially on the weekend). The formula was inspired by the law of “keep it simple stupid” and basically just takes the average goals per game of each team’s last 5 matches. If you’d like to know more about the algorithm’s origin story, click here.  I won $1,570 this week on over/under wagers and lost -$818 on everything else.

My betting reports the past few weeks were a celebration of underdogs, and the category came into Monday guns blazing, winning 13 of the first 15 games, coming within 1 match of sweeping Tuesday night. It certainly seemed on Tuesday night like this report would be another victory lap for underdogs. Sadly for us dog lovers, that was as good as it would get, with the category regressing for the rest of the week. You still finished ahead if you bet them all, but with a 3.7% rate of return. Some good teams got their acts together like Pittsburgh (sort of) and Toronto.



This also proved to be a really bad week for underdogs -1.5 goals, which had been returning some big rewards, but the well dried up this week (aside from a few scattered jackpots). This is an angle that I’ve been playing a lot lately with small wagers, and I did finish the week with a 9% return thanks almost exclusively to the Arizona Coyotes, or perhaps more specifically Karel Vejmelka. I finished the week a net loser betting moneylines (over -$1,000 burned) with 70% of that coming from favorites.

Favorites were a net loser on the week, but there was evidence that the so-called “underdog revolution” may be slowing down. I’ll be pumping the brakes myself, but not abandoning them entirely. The sample size is large enough now that it’s easier to estimate line value, so my underdog bets will be reserved for particularly juicy lines. I’m also keeping an eye open for struggling goalies on good teams. Binnington might be pulling out of his funk. Campbell is a mess. Markstrom and Saros have .887 and .885 save percentages the last 2 weeks.

This was another bad week for betting against back-to-backs, especially for me personally. Oddsmakers know how much people are betting these, and the lines are being pushed past the point of profitability. Last season I fell into the habit of unambiguously betting against nearly every rest disadvantage, but when the price gets too expensive, it can be hard to flip your mindset and take the other side. Note to self: back-to-backs are now a net loser in the current schedule and it’s worth considering getting on the other side of some of these wagers.

I am slowly coming to the realization that the Tampa Bay Lightning are not who I think they are. Andrei Vasilevskiy has given up at least 3 goals in 9 of 11 games played, sporting an unexpectedly low .898 SV%. It’s possible that some of the miles on his body are starting to take a toll, as well as those playing in front of him. They’re not the same juggernaut line-up they used to be. There are more holes. Another recent Stanley Cup champion Colorado struggled a little early but has managed to string together 4 straight wins.

If you’ve been riding the Buffalo Sabres this season (as I was early in the schedule), I hope you pumped the brakes this week. The Sabres went 0-3, losing all their games by at least 2 goals. Two of those opponents were elite (Boston and Vegas), but the other was Arizona. I bet Buffalo opponents in all three games, but only took the Coyotes because the Sabres line price was too expensive. My early Sabre enthusiasm was a product of liking them as a significant underdog, but when they shifted to being favored, I got cold feet.

My Week 5 Results

*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.

This might be my first betting report where both overs and unders appear in my top 3 categories to bet. Unders were the big winner, but it’s not often that I’m getting good returns from both sides. It rarely generates a big profit when there’s an even balance between overs and unders, but it can cash big dividends when a trend kicks in one way or the other. Looking back 5 games catches trends quicker, but I do continue consulting my original 10-game algorithm on each decision. The two competing algorithms disagreed a lot this week, but the shorter memory was more often correct.

It should be noted that I performed better than the actual algorithm because a few manual overrides were executed, all of them overs based on goalie injuries or a back-up expected to start (going 4-1). I’m also recording the starting goalies every night, which allows me to call up the starter game log in my “game summary” worksheet. Some teams it doesn’t matter who starts, but some teams it does, so I’m paying closer attention to who should be next up. I’m effective at predicting starters from my fantasy hockey experience.


 

My Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, +$743

One underdog that went undefeated this week was the Montreal Canadiens (+140, +110, and +135), and I’m pleased to report that my money was on them to win all three. The offense is really starting to roll, Sam Montembeault doesn’t suck, and Jake Allen is good sometimes. This team is playing their way out of the Connor Bedard sweepstakes and are within striking distance of being in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving. I also went 3 for 3 on Montreal over/under, 2 overs and 1 under.


$1 behind Montreal for my top honor was the Arizona Coyotes. My hope heading into this season was that there would be value betting Arizona to lose early in the schedule, allowing me to follow a similar blueprint as October 2021. Initially I did have some success betting them to lose, but when they defeated the mighty Toronto Maple Leafs in game three, that poured some cold water on my precognition. It also helped open my eyes a little earlier than usual that there might be some value on their lines. Within a week, I had started a string of 8 consecutive bets on Coyotes to win, producing shockingly good results.

 

My Worst Team of the Week: Edmonton Oilers, -$887

The Edmonton Oilers are in trouble. Losing Evander Kane for the next 4 months was a devastating blow, if you remember how badly they had been struggling prior to that acquisition. That added injury to insult, as the new prized free agent acquisition Jack Campbell has floundered in goal. They lost to Washington, beat Tampa, then got blown out by Carolina and I was on the wrong side of all those bets. Then just as it looked like the Oilers were on the verge of complete collapse, they go into Florida and beat the Panthers 4-2. Of course my money was on Florida, but at least I bet the under, saving myself from a worse fate.

The New York Rangers were my second worst team of the week, as they sunk all the way to 30th in my Power Rankings. I bet them to beat the Islanders who were on a back-to-back and the Isles won, then I had another big bet on the Rangers to defeat the struggling Predators, they started Jaroslav Halak and the Preds won. This team has been choking away some very winnable games when I’ve had large amounts invested in their victories. Yet when I start thinking they’re vulnerable to weak teams and bet their opponent, they dominate and make me look stupid. It’s a lose-lose situation.

 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 5:                    Overall Best Market Bets of Week 5:
 
1) Under: +$1,340                                                  1) Under: +$901
2) Home underdogs -1.5 goals: +$274                   2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: +$220
3) Over: +$230                                                       3) Underdogs moneyline: +$185
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 5:                 Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 5:
 
1) Favorites moneyline: -$759                              1) Over: -$1,335
2) Road moneyline: -$562                                     2) Underdogs -1.5 goals: -$1,165
3) Betting against back-to-backs: -$510                3) Betting against back-to-backs: -$669
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 5:              Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Arizona Coyotes: +$565                                   1) Arizona Coyotes: +$906
2) Montreal Canadiens: +$408                             2) Boston Bruins: +$826
3) Vegas Golden Knights: +$372                          3) Pittsburgh Penguins: +$608
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 5
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Edmonton Oilers, -$400
2) Tampa Bay Lightning, -$361
3) New York Rangers, -$350
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 5:       Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Buffalo Sabres, +$731                                       1) Buffalo Sabres: +$1,090
2) Dallas Stars, +$265                                            2) Philadelphia Flyers: +$508
3) New York Islanders, +$205                               3) New York Islanders: +$407
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 5:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Los Angeles Kings, -$450
2) Washington Capitals, -$361
3) Edmonton Oilers, -$350
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 5:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Arizona unders, +$377
2) Minnesota unders, +$341
3) Columbus overs, +$196

 
Team By Team Power Rankings

 These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.



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