Welcome to my Week 7 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 6 Betting Report.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, you should check out my new book The Hockey Economist's Betting Prospectus; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
My Weekly Profit: $2,606
As a Canadian my day to give thanks was back in October after two games had been played in the season, but my betting experiment was losing money at that point, so I didn’t have anything from a gambling standpoint to be thankful for. Fast forward 6 weeks later and there are a few teams that have earned my gratitude, the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, and Arizona Coyotes. My Devils did finally lose this week, but just one single solitary loss in 4 games played, so there was still plenty of profit to fill my coffers.
Frankly, the Devils loss against Toronto might have been fixed by the NHL, or at least somebody in the video review booth bet a lot of money on Leafs to win. The Devs winning streak might have finally been snapped, but my streak of consecutive games betting Jersey to win stayed intact. The team that didn’t lose any games was the New York Islanders, who currently sit 3rd place in my Power Rankings. They’re a team I’ve been betting to win a lot lately, and last week notwithstanding, they have delivered.
I would be shocked if anyone predicted Devils-Isles would be ranked #1 and #2 in the Metro at Thanksgiving as both missed the playoffs in 2022. At the end of week 7, they had a combined record of 33 wins, 12 losses, and are a big reason why this was my best week of the season. It didn’t take me long to jump back on the Isles bandwagon, which I’ve ridden for some very profitable runs in the past few seasons. The team has actually improved after firing Barry Trotz, which is not how I expected fortunes to unfold, but I’m not about to complain about all this profit.
This finished as a great week, but I was on my way to a terrible performance on Wednesday night until getting saved by my Arizona Coyotes, who beat Carolina 4-0 as a +300 underdog, including +750 on the alt puckline -1.5 goals. I’ve been on that bet for a few weeks, hitting far more often than the implied probability of the betting line. Without that big jackpot on Wednesday, I would have had nothing to give thanks for on Thursday. Had that been a Carolina victory, I would have lost -$1,400 combined in one night. Instead it was simply a -$600 loss. Thank you baby Jesus!
Turns out that Coyote miracle wasn’t even necessary to
turn a profit this week, as the entire loss could have been covered Saturday, winning
over $1,800. The biggest thanks goes to the Toronto Maple Leafs for their
convincing defeat of the Pittsburgh Penguins. I had wagers on the moneyline at
+100 and the puckline -1.5 goals at +255. It didn’t make sense to me why the
Penguins were favored, despite being on home ice. Then it was a pair of heavy
favorites, my Islanders and Devils, both hitting on the moneyline and puckline
against struggling opponents. Easy money.
One
team that dropped in my Power Rankings, were the untrustworthy St. Louis Blues.
They were simultaneously among my worst teams to bet on and against. They beat
the Ducks and Panthers, costing me money, then lost to the Lightning and
Sabres, costing me even more money. I bet the wrong moneyline in all 4 games.
The only reason the Blues weren't my worst team of the week was because I went
4 for 4 on their over/under (3 of them overs), which helped offset my losses.
Their overs have hit in 6 of the last 7 games.
My Week 7 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
My over/under algorithm performed remarkably well the previous 2 weeks, pulling impressive profit from both overs and unders. That streak came to a close, but it still posted a small profit on unders this week, despite a slightly better performance from overs market-wide. Oddsmakers were effective at setting the lines at a good number, to where you would have lost money whether you bet every over or every under. This was the second consecutive week that they managed to set the lines within the equilibrium value.
This was actually turning out to be a terrible week for my algorithm, which was down more than -$600 after Friday’s games. Then it won $729 on Saturday and Sunday. The first draft of my betting report on Friday night took a much more negative tone, requiring revision after a strong weekend. At least revising my report from negative to positive is spiritually uplifting. What’s really depressing is having to alter a very positive first draft after an atrocious weekend. That’s when Mondays really suck the most.
What teams specifically threw the curveballs that fooled my algorithm? The two biggest culprits were Minnesota unders and Columbus overs, which had both been very profitable picks for the last few weeks. In the 2 Columbus games, both goal scoring and goal allowing were down, two things that the BJs had been doing aplenty dating back to last season. My algorithm is making 90% of my over/under decisions at this point and despite the off week, I’m still up 9.2% on the year on all my O/U wagers.
There weren’t any categories jumping out to a big lead
as both underdogs and favorites moneyline posted a small loss for the week. This was a peculiar week for me, where I very nearly had no bad
categories. This is my 2nd season doing these weekly betting
reports, and rarely is it this hard to list my mistakes from a category
perspective. Once again, betting rested teams against tired opponents cracked
my list of worst investments, as the group that produced such outstanding
profit for me last season continues to disappoint. The prices are simply too
expensive.
My Team of the Week: Carolina Hurricanes, +$1,102
The Carolina Hurricanes have lost 7 of their last 10 games dating back to the start of week 5. As we entered the 3rd week of this malaise, I got more aggressive betting their opponents and hit the jackpot when they lost 4-0 to Karel Vejmelka and the Arizona Coyotes. I probably would have taken the Yotes even if Carolina wasn’t struggling, as I’ve bet them for 14 consecutive games. The biggest reason for the Canes downturn is a drop in goal scoring, which has also really helped their unders, with me going 3 for 4 betting their unders in week 7.
The Dallas Stars were my next best team at the week,
which came as a bit of a surprise. I was expecting the Devils or Isles, who did
finish 3rd and 4th by the way, but the Stars went 1-3 and
I managed to bet the right side of all 4 games. Jake Oettinger hasn’t quite
been the same goalie since returning from injury, which is affecting the Stars
ability to win. But also 2 of their 4 games were against Colorado, and I made big
bets on the Avs. So this bad week doesn’t necessarily mean they’re about to
nosedive. This is just a little negative regression.
My Worst Team of the Week: Minnesota Wild, -$670
The Minnesota Wild found their way to the bottom of my weekly team ranks, and the major culprit was almost entirely unders (-$500 of it). Wild unders were on an impressive 11-2 run until suddenly going 0-3 in week 7. That’s just the way variance unfolds sometimes. The primary driver was Wild goals for, as it was their 2nd highest scoring week of the season, which certainly can’t be sustained for too long. I was also a net loser when betting Minnesota opponents, as the Wild won 2 of their 3 games thanks to the extra goals scored.
My second worst team of the week was the aforementioned Columbus Blue Jackets, who only played 2 games. They fell to the bottom almost entirely because of overs, thanks to the offense grinding to a halt and the goal prevention tightening up. My hope is that this is just variance and not the beginning of a trend. Columbus overs have been such a cash cow in 2022 that it would be a shame if that golden goose stopped laying eggs.
1) Road moneyline: +$1,347 1) Road moneyline: +$487
2) Favorites moneyline: +$1,228 2) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: +$241
3) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$620 3) Road favorites -1.5 goals: +$235
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 7: Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 7:
1) Shorting back-to-backs: -$140 1) Underdogs -1.5 goals: -$1,010
2) Home dogs ML: -$135 2) Home moneyline: -$973
3) Road favorites -1.5 goals: -$80 3) Home favorites -1.5 goals: -$605
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 7: Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
1) New York Islanders: +$935 1) Arizona Coyotes: +$833
2) New Jersey Devils: +$857 2) Seattle Kraken: +$828
3) Toronto Maple Leafs: +$635 3) Buffalo Sabres: +$628
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 7
(over/under/hedges not included)
1) St. Louis Blues, -$400
2) Florida Panthers, -$250
3) Calgary Flames, -$152
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 7: Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
1) Carolina Hurricanes, +$762 1) Carolina Hurricanes: +$1,087
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 7:
(over/under/hedges not included)
1) Seattle Kraken, -$350
2) St. Louis Blues, -$350
3) Florida Panthers, -$250
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 7:
1) Winnipeg overs, +$366
2) Minnesota overs, +$279
3) San Jose overs, +$271
Team By Team Power Rankings
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