This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.
My latest book The
Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now
available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey
betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is
plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers
pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons
learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic
have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are
discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit
the Amazon
store.
Enjoy! Please note: The formatting on the
graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among
the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.
The Carolina Hurricanes started out the salary cap era in style, shocking many to capture the Stanley Cup in the inaugural capped season. You can read about how they acquired some of those pieces on the Canes best contracts list. If you’d like to know why they missed the playoffs 10 times in 11 years after that title, then you’ve come to right place.
Despite that prolonged period of futility, Jim Rutherford sustained his employment for 8 years after the championship. The straw that broke the camel’s back was Alex Semin, with Jimmy getting fired after his disastrous first season, leaving the roster in dire straits for Ron Francis. The former franchise hero missed the playoffs 4 times in 4 years and was fired before his long-term vision would come to fruition.
Unlike the previous transition of power, Ronny left the state of the roster in a much better place for his replacement. Don Waddell took the team to the conference final and was nominated for executive of the year. Francis registered 1346 assists in his NHL career, and he deserved one more on that Waddell award nomination.
1. Alexander Semin
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2013-03-25 |
Age July 1st: |
29 |
|
Term: |
5 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$35M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$7M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
41.1 |
122 |
61 |
303 |
|
Per 82 GP |
8.2 |
82 |
41 |
204 |
18.0 |
"We have done a lot of research about Alexander, and discussions about his fit with our team have included people at many different levels of our organization, including players, coaches and staff"Alex Semin played 7 seasons with the Washington Capitals and not once did they give him a long-term contract. When he reached unrestricted free agency for the 2nd time in 2012, he made the switch to Carolina on yet another 1-year deal. It’s plausible that Semin was just incredibly self-confident, willing to bet on himself every single season. But the fact that he stayed unsigned on the UFA market for a month before signing does suggest a consensus among General Managers that he lacked the work ethic to be trusted with an extended commitment, as was widely speculated in the media. The belief was that he’d only be good any given season if he was playing for a new deal.
His first season in Carolina was a stunning success, scoring at a point per game pace, prompting Rutherford to finally give Alex that long-term job security at age 29. It proved to be a calamitous error in judgement and Rutherford was fired a year later. The Russian’s production declined substantially almost immediately after hitting his big pay day, when the carrot was removed from the end of the stick. He had 19 PTS in 57 GP in year two before being bought out.
2. Victor Rask
Signed By: |
Ron Francis |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2016-07-12 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
7 |
Total Money: |
$24M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
25.2 |
346 |
142 |
516 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.2 |
82 |
34 |
122 |
14.2 |
“He is a big part of this team’s present and future, and we are thrilled to sign him to a longer-term deal.”Ron Francis didn’t sign many terrible contracts over his tenure as Hurricanes General Manager, but this was one of them. If we’re talking contract genealogy, it belongs on the Rostislav Olesz family tree. Rask inked this ticket after posting 48 PTS in 80 GP in the final year of his ELC at age 22. His comparables list had some impressive names, and this investment could have turned into a bargain had he continued on the career trajectory of his peers. Unfortunately for Ron, that’s not what happened.
In year one Rask played 82 games, scoring 45 PTS, averaging just over 17 minutes of ice time per game, a decent performance. In year two he dropped down to 31 PTS and 15.4 minutes, after which Francis was fired. His successor Don Waddell pulled off a miracle trade the following season when he dumped Rask to the Minnesota Wild for Nino Niederreiter.
3. Scott Darling
Signed By: |
Ron Francis |
Position: |
G |
|
Date: |
2017-05-05 |
Age July 1st: |
28 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$16.6M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.000 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.15M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
4.3 |
51 |
15 |
3.20 |
0.887 |
"This is a bit of a gamble, but one we believed was worth taking"Ron Francis traded a 3rd round pick to acquire Scott Darling from Chicago after the 2017 season and got his autograph on a new extension a few days later. Darling had been impressive in the 61 games he played for the Blackhawks over the previous 2 seasons (.919 SV%) and many believed that he could handle the responsibility of full-time starting duty, possibly even becoming the next Ben Bishop. Needless to say, that’s not how it all played out.
Year one was a disaster for Darling, with a 3.18 GAA and .888 SV%, after which both Ron Francis and Bill Peters were fired. Year two got off to an even worse start before Scotty cleared waivers and was sent to the AHL, eventually granted a “leave of absence”. That summer he was flipped to the Florida Panthers in a bad contract swap for James Reimer. The Panthers bought out the remainder of Darling’s deal. Ron Francis might still have his job if not for this mistake. When you whiff on a #1 goalie, it can have devastating consequences.
4. Tuomo Ruutu
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2012-02-22 |
Age July 1st: |
29 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$19M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.75M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
23.4 |
203 |
47 |
243 |
|
Per 82 GP |
5.8 |
82 |
19 |
98 |
12.7 |
"He's an important player to our team. He's the type of player that, long term, would be hard to replace."Tuomo Ruutu hit a career high 57 PTS for the Carolina Hurricanes at age 27 with one year remaining on his previous contract. His output declined significantly the following campaign, but that did not deter Rutherford from offering him a rich extension in February at the pay grade of a 60-point player. The warning signs of decline were already in progress and were ignored. Offseason hip surgery that summer did not improve the situation.
Ruutu scored 25 PTS over his next 74 GP with Carolina before Rutherford somehow managed to hoodwink Lou Lamoriello into giving him a 3rd round pick for a bad Ruutu contract. Jimmy was fired one month later, Lou was fired one year later. Tuomo would play 129 games for the Devils, scoring 22 PTS. His next destination was Switzerland.
5. Tim Gleason
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2012-01-30 |
Age July 1st: |
29 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$16M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
19.7 |
98 |
15 |
79 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.9 |
82 |
13 |
66 |
17.9 |
“He is one of our core players, someone who brings character and leadership to our locker-room, along with being a key piece on the ice. This is a very important signing for our team going forward.”Tim Gleason was never a big offensive contributor, but still managed to perform at a $3M pay grade for the previous 3 seasons. The defenseman was set to become an unrestricted free agent that summer, so Rutherford decided to extend him in January (on his 29th birthday) at an expensive price to prevent his departure.
Gleason’s ice time had already been in decline for a few years before signing, and that descent continued after the ink dried. Year two was off to a bad start before Rutherford managed to dump him on the Toronto Maple Leafs for an underperforming John-Michael Liles. The Leafs bought out the final 2 years of Gleason’s contract.
6. Tomas Kaberle
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2011-07-05 |
Age July 1st: |
33 |
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$12.75M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.25M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
16.4 |
82 |
34 |
98 |
|
Per 82 GP |
5.5 |
82 |
34 |
98 |
17.2 |
“He has had a good career and is now a Stanley Cup champion. We welcome him to Carolina and look forward to his contributions to the Hurricanes.”Tomas Kaberle reached the UFA market at age 33 after scoring 47 PTS and winning the Stanley Cup with the Boston Bruins. He had done a decent job of dodging Father Time after his odometer passed age 30, but that changed with the Hurricanes. The Czech defenseman would only last 23 games in Carolina before getting flipped to Montreal for a bad Jaroslav Spacek contract. It didn’t take long for Jimmy to figure out he had made a mistake.
Kaberle’s ice time dropped from 22.1 minutes in 2011 down to 17.7 in year one, leading to a scoring reduction to 31 PTS. Montreal GM Pierre Gauthier was fired a few months after acquiring Tomas, who played 53 games for the Canadiens before new GM Marc Bergevin bought out the remainder of the contract.
7. Frantisek Kaberle
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2006-06-27 |
Age July 1st: |
32 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
7 |
Total Money: |
$8.8M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
1 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
14.1 |
137 |
38 |
150 |
|
Per 82 GP |
3.5 |
82 |
23 |
90 |
16.1 |
"He is a good-skating and experienced defenceman in the prime of his career. And he'll play a big role in the team's future."Frantisek Kaberle had by far the most magnificent season of his career in 2006 at age 31, potting 44 PTS in the regular season and adding 13 more in the playoffs on the road to winning the winning the Stanley Cup, scoring the game winning goal in game 7. Eight days after hoisting the trophy, Rutherford got his autograph on a new ticket to keep the Czech from leaving in free agency.
After reaching that epic peak, he suffered a shoulder injury in September that delayed the start of his season until February, and struggled upon his return. After scoring 8 PTS in 30 GP in year three at age 34 Frantisek was bought out. His next contract would be back in Czechoslovakia.
8. Cam Ward
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
G |
|
Date: |
2009-09-30 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$37.8M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.000 |
Cap Hit: |
$6.3M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
8.0 |
292 |
131 |
2.61 |
0.913 |
"The pressure's going to be there to play like an elite goaltender now that I'm being paid like one"In 14 NHL seasons, Cam Ward registered an above average Save Percentage 4 times, and was worse than -10 goals saved above average 6 times. The Hurricanes paid an elite starting goaltender’s price and were rewarded with one good season in year one, a decent year two, and a dramatically overpriced below average starter for the other four.- Cam Ward
If you need more evidence that this was a poor investment for the Hurricanes, over these 6 years with Cam Ward as their franchise goaltender, the team made zero playoff appearances. Ward’s legacy in Carolina as a Conn Smythe trophy winner will endure for decades, but he also produced over half a decade of subpar mediocrity that gave fans very little to cheer about. By comparison, Carey Price signed an almost identical contract 2 years later that won a Hart Trophy.
9. Oleg Tverdovsky
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2005-08-04 |
Age July 1st: |
29 |
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
5 |
Total Money: |
$7.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.5M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
14.1 |
98 |
27 |
117 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.7 |
82 |
23 |
98 |
15.3 |
“Oleg is a highly-skilled defenseman who entered the NHL at a very young age and is just reaching his prime”Oleg Tverdovsky recorded back-to-back 50-point seasons at the turn of the century, but had been experiencing declining production heading into the 2005 lockout. Jim Rutherford however, seemed to think the 29-year-old defenseman was just reaching his prime. He was wrong. Tverdovsky only averaged 16.6 minutes per game in Carolina, scoring 23 PTS in 72 GP, watching most of the playoffs from the press box.
My general rule is to exclude Stanley Cup winners from my worst contract lists, however Oleg barely saw the ice in that playoffs, including just 2:20 in the finals against Edmonton. After the championship, he was shipped off to the LA Kings with Jack Johnson in return for Tim Gleason and Eric Belanger. Once in California, this went from bad to worse. He played under 12 minutes per game, scored 4 PTS in 26 GP, and was sent to the minors. Tverdovsky walked away from the last year, returning to the KHL.
10. Jake Gardiner
Signed By: |
Don Waddell |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2019-09-06 |
Age July 1st: |
28 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
4 |
Total Money: |
$16.4M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
1 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.1M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
16.6 |
94 |
32 |
110 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.1 |
82 |
28 |
96 |
16.5 |
“He’s had options this summer, but ultimately decided that Carolina is his best fit, and we’re thrilled to have him here.”Jake Gardiner was supposed to be one of the biggest prizes on the 2019 free agent market and went unsigned into September. This would not have been due to a lack of demand for his services, but rather teams being reluctant to make a big-ticket long-term commitment to a 29-year-old defenseman with a history of back problems.
But as training camps were set to begin, Gardiner needed to take the best offer on the table, settling on the Hurricanes. He did manage to score 29 PTS in 68 GP, but saw his ice time plunge to 16.7 minutes per game. Another milestone that came to pass in year one was his 30th birthday, after which he battled injury issues.
11. Eddie Lack
Signed By: |
Ron Francis |
Position: |
G |
|
Date: |
2015-10-03 |
Age July 1st: |
28 |
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$5.5M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.000 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.75M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
3.1 |
28 |
10 |
2.97 |
0.894 |
“So when he gets in again he better play. He better earn some respect from your teammates. Your teammates are out there working their bag off, you better get some saves. And a timely save at the right time wouldn’t hurt.”Eddie Lack enjoyed a sensational 2015 for the Vancouver Canucks, thrust into the position of primary starter after an injury to Ryan Miller, helping the Canucks make the playoffs. In 41 games he registered an impressive .921 SV%. That summer Ron Francis traded 3rd and 7th round draft picks to bring the Swedish goaltender to Carolina. Before the next season started, Ron locked him into a 2-year extension at a 1B price.
“Eddie Lack is a happy-go-lucky kind of guy and Bill Peters is a very serious guy. I think that was a problem as they continued to fall out of the playoff picture.”
The Hurricanes did not get the same player who helped carry his previous team into the playoffs. They got a .901 SV% and an angry coached who publicly called him out in the media. Lack only played 19 games in Carolina on this contract before was shipped off to New Jersey in a 3-way salary dump.
12. Calvin de Haan
Signed By: |
Don Waddell |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2018-07-03 |
Age July 1st: |
27 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
17 |
Total Money: |
$18.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
2 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.55M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
18.5 |
216 |
38 |
309 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.6 |
82 |
14 |
117 |
18.9 |
"He is a strong two-way player who is capable of shutting down opponents' top lines, and he will help solidify the left side and upgrade our defense.”Calvin de Haan followed the fastest route available to unrestricted free agency with his previous 1-year contract expiring shortly after his 27th birthday. A shoulder injury cost him most of the 2018 season, and probably had a negative effect on the term that GMs were willing to give him on the open market. Don Waddell was not deterred, giving him a 4-year deal.
Calvin’s career high of 25 PTS in 2017 became a distant memory, as the offensive side of his game dried up in Carolina, prompting a trade to Chicago for Gustav Forsling and Anton Forsberg. De Haan’s first season in Chicago was cut short due to another injury. Calvin was a decent defenseman who could probably crack the starting line-ups of most teams in the league, he was just getting paid twice as much as he should have been.
13. Scott Walker
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2007-06-20 |
Age July 1st: |
33 |
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
19 |
Total Money: |
$7.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
7 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.5M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
11.4 |
141 |
55 |
256 |
|
Per 82 GP |
3.8 |
82 |
32 |
149 |
13.6 |
"Keeping Scott in Carolina was one of our top priorities this off-season"In the summer of 2006, Jim Rutherford dispatched Josef Vasicek to the Nashville Predators for Matt Walker, who had a very successful first season in Carolina, potting 51 PTS. The 33-year-old winger earned himself a 3-year contract extension at a 50-point pay grade, and never came close to that point total again.
Injuries did play a role in Walker’s demise, never topping 60 games in a season. He would be eligible for an injury exemption from this list if not for the fact that he only averaged 32 PTS per 82 GP when healthy, playing 13.6 minutes per game. Rutherford did ship him off to Washington as a rental in the final year. That was the end of Scott Walker’s professional playing career.
14. Patrick Eaves
Signed By: |
Jim Rutherford |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2008-06-04 |
Age July 1st: |
24 |
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
18 |
Total Money: |
$4.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
3 |
Cap Hit: |
$1.4M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
6.0 |
74 |
14 |
115 |
|
Per 82 GP |
2.0 |
82 |
16 |
127 |
11.3 |
"We're looking for a special deal on a player that was looking for more money but, at this point in free agency, is not going to get it. We have a short list of players, but Patrick is not on it. ... But we still like Patrick."In 2008 Jim Rutherford traded Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to the Ottawa Senators for Patrick Eaves and Joe Crovo. Eaves was in the final year of his ELC, having peaked at 32 PTS in 73 GP in 2007. Expectations had to be high as he was replacing players beloved by the fan base for the championship they helped deliver in 2006.
The first season unquestionably fell short of expectations, scoring 14 PTS in 75 GP and prompting Rutherford to trade him to Boston with a 4th round pick for Aaron Ward. The Bruins bought out the remaining 2 years of Eaves deal, leading to speculation that Eaves might return to Carolina at a reduced price, which never materialized.
The Winger would go on to play 10 more years with 4 different teams, developing into a solid contributor when healthy. Unfortunately, that was the problem, as injuries limited what he could have accomplished in his career.
15. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Signed By: |
Don Waddell |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2021-08-28 |
Age July 1st: |
20 |
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
14 |
Total Money: |
$6.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
2 |
Cap Hit: |
$6.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
6.2 |
66 |
29 |
81 |
|
Per 82 GP |
6.2 |
82 |
36 |
101 |
12.0 |
"He sees the core we've built here and he wants to be a part of that. We're proud, but there's still a waiting period. When you make an offer like that, we saw a vulnerable position. The offer, with the compensation and the core we have, we realized that it was the best chance we had to get the player."If you are going to sign a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, it generally needs to be at a significantly higher price than what they’re worth if you’re going to have any chance of acquiring the asset. When Montreal tried to steal Sebastian Aho from Carolina, it was at a cheaper price than his previous season’s stat line was worth. It actually became a bargain for Carolina, and you can read about it on their best contracts page. That led to my conspiracy theory that Bergevin and Waddell had actually conspired to get Aho signed at a fair price, and that Waddell would return the favor down the road.
My conspiracy theory fell apart when Jesperi Kotkaniemi became an RFA and Carolina gave him an offer sheet for 1-year at more than triple what his stat line was worth. The result was a $6M player scoring 36 PTS per 82 GP and averaging only 12 minutes of ice time per game, which is more than 1/3 what his pay grade warranted. Sure, this was the price that they needed to pay if they were going to get the player, but he was absurdly overpaid for this one season. The Canes did eventually lock him up to an 8-year deal, which was considered for this slot instead. It remains to be seen if he’s worth that price.
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