Welcome to my Week 11 NHL Betting Report, featuring my
Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst
teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real
money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real
money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like
the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it
provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my
weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines
for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see
my Week 10 Betting Report.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, you should check out my new book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
My Weekly Profit: $213
Merry Christmas and happy (insert name of holiday you celebrate)! If somebody bought you an Amazon gift card for the holidays, it just so happens that my new betting book is for sale in the Amazon store. Consider it an investment that can help you generate revenue in the future, or perhaps just lose less than you were before. Parlay that gift card into actionable knowledge to become a better bettor. Because of the holidays this was the fewest games we’ve had in a week since the first of the season, fewer even than Thanksgiving. After 3 days I’m experiencing withdrawal symptoms.
For me the shortened schedule produced “mixed results”. I was in the process of having an outstanding week until losing -$1,121 on Friday, as the Grinch paid me a visit and stole some loot from my stocking. Fortunately he didn’t take all the money, and left a little something showing he’s not a complete monster. The Buffalo Sabres maintained the top spot in my betting Power Rankings, only playing one game due to a winter storm cancelation. Ottawa isn’t far behind in second place, but also had a game cancelled due to winter weather.
This was a good week to bet favorites and home teams (which are often the same thing), as faves moneyline has posted a profit in 3 of the last 4 weeks after the dogs were howling around Halloween. Eventually that underdog revolution subsided, and favorites began to re-establish dominance. This was the best week of the entire season for home teams, winning 64% of games, covering +1.5 goals in 83%. It makes sense that this was my worst performance betting road moneyline, with underdogs driving the bus.
Road favorites moneyline was a net loser as a category, but I managed to post a profit after going 4-1 thanks to Colorado, Washington, and Calgary. I have increased my investment in faves -1.5 goals the last 2 weeks, which produced a great return in in week 10, but only a small profit in week 11. They had consecutive good performances in weeks 8 and 9, prompting me to increase my stake. Had I laid an equal amount of money on each, it would have returned a big loss. Instead I mostly just crushed Chicago and Anaheim these last two weeks.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers went a combined 0-5, and were the best teams to be against overall. I hit nice pay day on Detroit +150 when they defeated Tampa 7-4, but sadly didn’t have anything on that alt puckline at +330. Meanwhile the Florida Panthers continue struggling, and now find themselves 8 points out of a playoff spot. Nobody would be surprised if they won 75% of their second half games and comfortably made the playoffs, but it’s more likely they miss (which is now a -125 bet, down from +600 in September).
That Red Wings win was their only victory of the week, but enough to make them the most profitable team to bet (they did cover +1.5 goals in their 1 loss). Vancouver got a similar bump into the #2 spot from one longshot game, when they beat Edmonton 5-2 at +185 on the moneyline and +400 on the alt puckline -1.5 goals. The Canucks beat Seattle and lost to St. Louis in their other matches. Carolina, Colorado, Washington, and Boston all went 3-0, but were all net losers -1.5 goals. Avs were +$188 on the moneyline and -$300 on the puckline -1.5.
My Week 11 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
This was the 3rd consecutive lackluster performance by my over/under algorithm, but at least finished above zero for the 9th time in 11 weeks and still generating a 6.4% return on the season. Goal scoring did recover this week, climbing up from 5.8 goals per game to 6.4. Overs went 20-19-3, so they didn’t exactly blow up, but they didn’t cost you as many wagers. My algo’s biggest blunder was recommending too many unders for St. Louis and Boston. In retrospect, I should have executed an override when it wanted the under in Seattle-St. Louis.
Colorado and Anaheim both when undefeated on their unders, while the undefeated overs were San Jose, Philadelphia, Seattle, Edmonton, and Detroit. Philly overs were the most profitable of all O/U wagers this week, followed by Colorado and Anaheim unders. Goals per game in the last 4 weeks were 6.6, 6.5, 5.8, and 6.4, so with any luck that “Undermageddon” last week was just an anomaly and it’s safe to bet overs again. Line movement suggests more money is wagered on unders, but my Twitter feed seems to love overs.
If you were betting against back-to-backs this week,
moneyline turned a small profit but you could have hit a home run shorting them
-1.5 goals. Some weeks I’ll combine moneyline and puckline in my best category
rankings and just call it “shorting back-to-backs” but this week it
specifically needed to be split into 2 components. Betting against
back-to-backs on the moneyline was my 2nd worst category, while the
puckline -1.5 goals vs btb was my 3rd best category. The two largest
contributors to my bad ML performance was tired Boston beating New Jersey and
tired Vancouver beating Edmonton.
In the last 14 days, the Minnesota Wild climbed from #17 in my Power Rankings to #4 today, winning 5 of their last 6 games in that span. They only played 2 games in the shortened pre-Christmas week, but I laid $500 on the Wild puckline -1.5 goals to beat Anaheim on a back-to-back, and they won 5-1. The next game, it was the Wild on the back-to-back, so I made a small wager on the San Jose moneyline at +140, and Sharks won 5-2. The return of James Reimer gives me a little more confidence in San Jose, but it was the btb that enticed me.
My second best team was the Anaheim Ducks, but only because they lost to Minnesota, I was a net loser on their non-Wild games. The Ducks ranked #28 in my week 7 Power Rankings, and 28 days later they’re all the way up at #4. They went 3-10 in that span, with me profiting $1,790 from their losses, and also pulling a small profit from their wins, but only when their opponent lines were absurdly expensive.
The Boston Bruins went 3-0 this week, but have reached a stage where they are favored against pretty much every team in the NHL. Right now they’re the top dog, and two of their games this week I bet New Jersey and Winnipeg to pull off upsets because the line value was enticing. The Bruins won both games, but only by a single goal. A greater share of my financial losses came from their over/under, which my algorithm has been brutal at betting. They go over when I bet under and under when I bet over.
The Philadelphia Flyers were my second worst team of
the week, but there weren’t any catastrophic losses, just a collection of
smaller losses. The Leafs and Hurricanes both beat the Flyers, but failed to
cover the puckline -1.5 goals, where I had bets on the moneyline and puckline,
then went 1 for 3 on their over/under. Philly has produced a profit +1.5 goals
for the last 4 weeks. Not profitable to bet their opponents -1.5.
2) Home moneyline: +$721 2) Home moneyline: +$465
3) Shorting back-to-backs -1.5 goals: +$650 3) Home dogs +1.5 goals: +$296
2) Shorting back-to-back ML: -$415 2) Road moneyline: -$1,338
3) Home favorites -1.5 goals: -$400 3) Underdogs moneyline: -$1,200
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
2) Washington Capitals: +$291 2) Vancouver Canucks: +$406
3) Nashville Predators: +$167 3) Carolina Hurricanes: +$284
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) New Jersey Devils, -$250
3) New York Rangers, -$250
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Philadelphia Flyers, -$252
3) Pittsburgh Penguins, -$211
2) Colorado unders, +$269
3) Anaheim unders, +$263
Team By Team Power Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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