Sunday, December 25, 2022

Detroit Red Wings 15 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
 
Enjoy! Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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Ken Holland was General Manager of the Detroit Red Wings from 1997 to 2019, and continued the Red Wings impressive playoff streak 10 years beyond the introduction of the dynasty killing salary cap in 2005. Henrik Zetterberg’s contract wasn’t the only thing that was front-loaded, so too is the chronological order of their best contracts list. As most of Ken Holland’s best work came before the retirement of Nick Lidstrom, which started the franchise down a long dark path.
 
Holland is regarded very highly as a General Manager in the hockey world, and pulled off some miraculous deals before things got gloomy. Most of what you’ll see here focuses on the first 5 years after the cap was introduced and the Wings won yet another Stanley Cup. If you’d like to read more about the 10 dark years that followed, you’ll have to read the Wings worst contracts list.
 
The best tool in Holland’s tool box was allowing prospects to spend longer than necessary in the minors, which allows the team to drive down the price of the 2nd and 3rd contracts. This tactic yielded several positive results, as you’re about to learn. Full disclosure, I am a Red Wings fan and am not entirely free from bias…
 
 
1. Henrik Zetterberg
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2005-09-07

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

69

Total Money:

$10.6M

 

Playoff PTS:

71

Cap Hit:       

$2.7M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

18.8

292

318

1161

 

Per 82 GP

4.7

82

89

326

20.4

“He is one of the hardest working guys on our team and other guys follow that, they look up to that. We're blessed to have him on our team."
If you’re wondering how Ken Holland was able to convince Henrik Zetterberg to accept such a team friendly deal, the young Swede had topped out at only 44 PTS over his first 2 seasons. Henrik would return from Sweden in August 2005 as a completely different player, scoring 39 goals and 85 PTS amid the obstruction crackdown.
 
This is among the most incredible bargains of the salary cap era, even accounting for cap inflation. The Red Wings received 292 GP, 318 PTS (89-point pace), 1167 shots, +98, 125 power play PTS, 2059 face off wins, and that’s just regular season. He also won a Stanley Cup and a playoff MVP. He would total 71 PTS in 69 playoff GP. This was like getting a $10M player for $4.7M.
 
 
2. Nick Lidstrom
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

D

Date:

2006-06-30

Age July 1st:

36

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

40

Total Money:

$15.2M

 

Playoff PTS:

31

Cap Hit:       

$7.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

26.7

156

132

412

 

Per 82 GP

13.4

82

69

217

27.1

"You look right now and it's tough to see anyone better, that's for sure. I don't know what more you can say.”
Had Nick Lidstrom decided to retire after the 2005 NHL lockout, he was already a slam dunk to make it into the Hall of Fame, having already won 3 Norris trophies, a Conn Smythe, and 3 Stanley Cups. Just to play it safe, Nick decided to return to the ice and pad his stats, posting a new career high at age 35 before inking a 2-year extension.
 
If you look at this salary as a percentage of the cap, it’s among the highest given to a defenseman (in year one) since the salary cap was introduced, adjusted to more than $14M in 2022 (tied with Scott Niedermayer one year earlier). Comparing this to the expected earnings of a 60-70 point D-man, Lidstrom appears to be overpaid (if someone nicknamed “The Perfect Human” can even be considered overpaid).
 
Yet having said all of that, this contract ranks as one of the most productive handed out in the last 15 years (69 PTS per 82 GP ranks 3rd highest among defensemen in the salary cap era). It was a 2-year contract that won 2 Norris trophies and a Stanley Cup. Drop the microphone…
 
 
3. Pavel Datsyuk
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2007-04-06

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

7 years

 

Playoff GP:

85

Total Money:

$46.9M

 

Playoff PTS:

77

Cap Hit:       

$6.7M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

65.6

461

476

1249

 

Per 82 GP

9.4

82

85

222

20.1

“Pavel is one of the world’s most skilled players and has developed into a bona fide superstar over the past two seasons. We think securing Pavel, who is moving into the prime of his career, is key to ensuring the long-term success of this franchise.”
More often than not, giving out a 7-year contract to a 29-year-old player is a recipe for disaster that can become an awful blunder as they age into their 30s. The Red Wings won the Cup in year one with Datsyuk scoring 120 PTS (regular season + playoffs). Had he taken a nose dive after that, the contract still would have been worth every penny.
 
Instead, Pavel continued to produce at an elite level into his mid-30s (averaging 85 PTS per 82 GP over these 7 years). If the scoring output wasn’t enough, he also won 3 Selke trophies on this deal as the league’s best 2-way forward (that’s the real definition of the award, am I right?). Datsyuk is a lock to join the Hockey Hall of Fame when his career finally ends.
 
 
4. Nicklas Lidstrom
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

D

Date:

2010-06-01

Age July 1st:

40

Term:

1 year

 

Playoff GP:

11

Total Money:

$6.2M

 

Playoff PTS:

8

Cap Hit:       

$6.2M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

8.6

82

62

175

 

Per 82 GP

8.6

82

62

175

23.5

"We call him the Perfect Human. And there's a reason for it. Whatever he does, he seems to do perfectly, so I think that's a pretty good nickname."
On a single season contract at age 40, Lidstrom won yet another Norris Trophy. Arguably the greatest return ever on a contract given to a 40-year-old defenseman. Sure, my contracts spreadsheet doesn’t extend earlier than 2005, but I still think it’s safe to assume that’s the greatest single season for a D-man of that age. At this point in his career, Nick did not need an agent. He’d simply tell Holland what he wanted and he got it (listen to his appearance on the Spittin Chiclets podcast).
 
While this might not have ranked high on the “bargain scale”, winning major awards is a great way to climb one of my best contracts lists (where you won’t find too many 1-year deals). The Perfect Human did Holland a huge favor by taking 1-year term at this age. Had he demanded more and tested free agency, somebody would have given it to him.
 
 
5. Johan Franzen
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2006-08-25

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

57

Total Money:

$2.8M

 

Playoff PTS:

48

Cap Hit:       

$942K

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

4.7

212

127

596

 

Per 82 GP

1.6

82

49

231

17.2

“Johan had a very good rookie season in the NHL. He was a big part of our penalty killing, provided us with a physical presence and played very well in the playoffs. Moving into his second NHL season and beyond, we’re hopeful he can gain some confidence and increase his contribution in the scoring department as well.”
Johan Franzen only managed to score 16 PTS in 80 GP in 2006 as a rookie, allowing Holland to lock him in at a very low price for 3 years. The move paid off as Franzen emerged as a legit sniper, with 28 playoff goals on this contract, adding 71 more in the regular season. That’s 99 Goals for a combined sum of $3.7M (adjusted for cap inflation), paying 28 cents on the dollar for the stat line. Unreal.
 
All those bargain goals helped Detroit advance to 2 Stanley Cup finals, hoisting the trophy in 2008. Franzen certainly made a bigger contribution to those teams than Mike Babcock did, as a monkey could have coached them to a championship. Lidstrom made that asshole look smarter than he actually was.
 
 
6. Pavel Datsyuk
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2005-09-26

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

23

Total Money:

$7.8M

 

Playoff PTS:

19

Cap Hit:       

$3.9M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

15.6

154

174

352

 

Per 82 GP

7.8

82

93

187

18.9

"He's a talented young player that had a very good year for us two years ago, and we're hoping for more of the same. With the new rules, I think skilled players like Pavel are really going to be helped."
Datsyuk’s career high point total was 68 prior to the lost lock-out season, and he returned from that one-year absence and exploded up to 87 PTS. At this point the Red Wings were still a dynasty in progress and loaded with talented veteran players. Yzerman and Shanahan were still on the team, but they were over-taken by Zetterberg and Datsyuk as the primary offensive drivers.
 
Over these 2 seasons Pavel averaged a magical 93 PTS per 82 GP, but didn’t win any Stanley Cups or Selke trophies until his next contract. He had the opportunity to walk to unrestricted free agency at the end of this deal, but chose instead to sign an extension in April and stay with the team long term (which paid off with a championship in 2008).
 
 
7. Nicklas Lidstrom
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

D

Date:

2007-12-26

Age July 1st:

38

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

33

Total Money:

$14.9M

 

Playoff PTS:

26

Cap Hit:       

$7.45M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.7

160

108

374

 

Per 82 GP

10.8

82

55

192

25.1

"Nick has been the best defenseman in the world for several years"
Nick was merely nominated for the Norris trophy under this contract, but still took the team to another Stanley Cup final in year one. The Perfect Human scored 108 PTS in 160 GP (55-point pace) in the regular season (averaging over 25 minutes of ice time), adding 26 more PTS in 33 playoff GP.
 
Mike Babcock’s greatest skill as a coach was his unique ability to tap Lidstrom on the back and send him out on the ice. Once Lidstrom retired, Babs was exposed as a mediocre coach. Unfortunately, the Toronto Maple Leafs did not learn that lesson until it was too late and they gave that prick a ton of money.
 
 
8. Niklas Kronwall
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

D

Date:

2006-11-23

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

73

Total Money:

$15M

 

Playoff PTS:

37

Cap Hit:       

$3M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.7

352

181

569

 

Per 82 GP

4.3

82

42

133

22.4

“My feeling is that the only thing that’s held him back in the NHL is that he’s had a lot of bad luck with injuries.”
Niklas Kronwall had not even accumulated 80 games of NHL experience when he signed this 5-year extension in November 2006, accepting a similar treaty to Henrik Tallinder in Buffalo a few months earlier. Niklas would have been far better off to bet on himself with a shorter-term deal that would have led him into unrestricted free agency earlier.
 
Year one of this contract saw Kronwall contribute 15 playoff PTS en route to a Stanley Cup championship, and followed that up with a 51-point season in year two at age 27. While he did take a risk with a pact expiring at age 31, any money he might have left on the table was added to his next negotiation, as Holland gave him $33M.
 
 
9. Dylan Larkin
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2018-08-10

Age July 1st:

21

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$30.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

31.0

262

218

856

 

Per 82 GP

6.2

82

68

268

20.9

"I want this to be something that they look back and they say that they made the right move to sign me to five years.”
There has recently been a shift in the RFA market, led by William Nylander, where star players are getting paid at a younger age. This comes as teams have become smarter about giving out big long-term contracts to players later in their careers, so agents are now advising their clients that they need to strike while the iron is hot. Larkin signed his deal shortly before this shift, allowing the Red Wings to lock in their #1 center through what should be the prime of his career at a team friendly price. Year two hit a snag with Detroit being historically bad, and Anthony Mantha missing a big chunk of the season.
 
 
10. Henrik Zetterberg
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2009-01-28

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

12 years

 

Playoff GP:

52

Total Money:

$73M

 

Playoff PTS:

44

Cap Hit:       

$6.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

87.2

650

555

2022

 

Per 82 GP

7.3

82

70

255

19.7

“The only reason why we wrote such a long contract was because of the payroll. It is quite obvious that you try to fool the system. Actually, I may have two years left, but I have also learned to take one year at a time. But I will probably not play until then.”
Henrik Zetterberg was on a collision course with unrestricted free agency one year after being anointed playoff MVP while winning the Stanley Cup. There unquestionably would have been an expensive bidding war for his services, but Ken Holland managed to avoid a doomsday scenario by stealing a page from Brian Lawton’s playbook. Holland retained his star player with a 12-year back-dive.
 
This document had the potential to hit the Red Wings with a significant “cap recapture penalty”, which was why he qualified for my 2017 Worst NHL contracts list, but Marian Hossa was a game changer. This deal was never intended to last 12 years, as it ripped off the 11-year back-dive invented by Brian Lawton and Vincent LeCavalier a few months earlier as a means to front-load money and circumvent the salary cap by artificially lowering the annual hit.
 
Hank was able to continue scoring at a point per game pace until age 32, aging more gracefully than most players, finishing with 70 PTS per 82 GP. Luckily Unfortunately, a career ending back injury (that cost him zero games in 2017/18 with Detroit far out of the playoff race) allowed Ken Holland to stash the remaining 3 years on LTIR, circumventing avoiding cap recapture. This had the potential to be a disaster, but now that it’s over and we’ve seen the whole picture with zero punishment, it’s safe to conclude that this was a worthwhile expenditure.
 
 
11. Chris Osgood
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

G

Date:

2006-07-01

Age July 1st:

33

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff Wins:

14

Total Money:

$1.7M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.930

Cap Hit:       

$850K

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

1.5

64

38

2.18

0.912

"We're not looking for him to steal games. But when it was 1-1 in Game 4, Pittsburgh had a flurry of shots at him and one point and Ozzie made the saves we needed."
Chris Osgood needed a new contract at age 33 after posting a disappointing .897 SV% as the Red Wings back-up in 2006, and made it all the way to July 1st as an unrestricted free agent. Ultimately he decided to stay in Detroit, and it paid off.  We aren’t here to debate if Chris Osgood belongs in the Hall of Fame with 400 wins and multiple Stanley Cups as a starting goalie, but rather recognizing the value of this particular contract.
 
In year one he mostly just served as back-up to Dominik Hasek and played zero playoff games, which is perfectly acceptable at this price range. Ozzie was a slightly above average regular season goalie and by year two of this contract, Hasek became a below average NHL backstopper. Osgood won the starting job over the Dominator, went 14-4 in the playoffs with a 1.55 GAA and .930 SV% winning the Stanley Cup. Osgood could have played zero regular season games over these 2 years and he would still be on this list just for that playoff.
 
 
12. Gustav Nyquist
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2013-08-20

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$1.9M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$950K

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

2.4

139

102

348

 

Per 82 GP

1.2

82

60

205

16.7

“Obviously, he could have been here at the start of the year. He wasn't here because of decisions I made over the course of the summer but I told him when I sent him down that our goal was to get him back up. I didn't put a time frame on it but I hoped sometime in November we could get him back.”
One of the advantages to letting a prospect “marinate” in the AHL is that it tends to drive down the price of their next contract. Skill-wise, Gustav Nyquist was ready for full-time NHL top 6 forward duty in 2013 and was one of the Red Wings best skaters from the moment he arrived in Motown. He spent a majority of that season in the minors, scoring 60 PTS in 58 GP for the Grand Rapid Griffins. When Gustav did dress for the Wings, he played mostly on the 3rd line with an offensively limited Joakim Andersson as his center, which understandably limited Gustav’s performance. That allowed Holland to get his signature on a very team friendly bridge deal.
 
The Swedish winger would start the following season back in the AHL due to salary cap and roster reasons, but once he earned a full-time spot, Babcock put him on the Zetterberg line and Gustav went on a heater, scoring 48 PTS in 57 GP. Nyquist would average 60 PTS per 82 GP over this pact, with the Wings only paying about 20 cents on the dollar for that production.
 
 
13. Brian Rafalski
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

D

Date:

2007-07-01

Age July 1st:

33

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

63

Total Money:

$30M

 

Playoff PTS:

40

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

43.3

292

204

556

 

Per 82 GP

8.7

82

57

156

23.1

"It was a difficult decision leaving New Jersey, the only team I've known, but I'm coming home to play for the team I grew up watching"
Brian Rafalski might have been 33 years old when he reached the UFA market in 2007, but given that he had just completed a 55-point season and was a former Stanley Cup champion, there were plenty of suitors for his services. Detroit won the bidding war, aided by the fact that Rafalski was born and raised in Michigan.
 
It’s rare for any team to invest this much money in an over-30 free agent and parlay that into an immediate Stanley Cup victory, but that’s exactly what happened here (if you ever make a list of the top Cup winning UFA signings in the salary cap era, remember to include this one). Rafalski would age incredibly well, scoring 204 PTS in 292 GP (57-point pace), adding an additional 40 PTS in 63 playoff games, with back-to-back trips to the finals.
 
Brian would walk away from $6M to retire after year four, which was devastating for Detroit because he was still remarkably effective at his advanced age. Perhaps he received a few anti-aging tips from Lidstrom.
 
 
14. Jimmy Howard
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

G

Date:

2008-07-21

Age July 1st:

24

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff Wins:

12

Total Money:

$2.15M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.919

Cap Hit:       

$717K

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

1.0

127

74

2.53

0.916

“Seven years in the minors and college helped get him ready for this opportunity. He got a chance to learn his craft and that’s what we always like to do when we can with our draft picks.”
Jimmy Howard spent most of his first 4 pro seasons playing in the AHL, seeing the net only 9 times at the NHL level, that’s the perfect recipe for a cheap 2nd contract. He might have made it to the NHL sooner if Chris Osgood and Dominik Hasek were not still filling the big-league crease.
 
Jimmy was ready for NHL duty in year one after Hasek retired, but Holland opted instead to sign Ty Conklin away from the Pittsburgh Penguins (who the Wings had just defeated) to fill the 2nd string role. By year two, Jimmy couldn’t be held back any longer, and burst onto the scene when Osgood faltered, playing 63 games with a 2.26 GAA and .924 SV% earning a Calder trophy nomination, a rare occurrence on a non-entry level contract. His SV% did plunge down to .908 in year three, but he was still a bargain at under $1M AAV.
 
 
15. Mikael Samuelsson
 

Signed By:

Ken Holland

Position:

F

Date:

2006-03-25

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

63

Total Money:

$3.6M

 

Playoff PTS:

34

Cap Hit:       

$1.2M

 

Stanley Cups:

1

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

6.0

207

114

695

 

Per 82 GP

2.0

82

45

275

15.6

"He just has the ability. He has a rocket of a shot. We're always on him to shoot the puck more. He's a huge man. Absolutely a monster. He can be real physical when he wants to be. He can really skate."
Prior to the lockout, Mikael Samuelsson had accumulated 188 NHL GP and scored only 49 PTS. Hakan Andersson recruited him to come to Detroit in the summer of 2005, and he immediately had the best season of his career with 45 PTS on a powerhouse Red Wings team. He chose to sign a 3-year extension with Detroit at a low price instead of cashing in on the open market. It makes perfectly logical sense that a Swede would take a discount to stay in Detroit.
 
What did the Red Wings get for that $3.6M ($6M adjusted for cap inflation)? 207 GP, 114 PTS regular season, a Stanley Cup and 63 playoff games with 34 playoff PTS. That’s a win. After back to back finals appearances, Samuelsson received a pay raise to move to Vancouver at age 32.

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