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My Weekly Profit: -$331
Inevitably all streaks must eventually come to an end, as did my streak of consecutive weeks of positive profit, a streak that never would have lasted this long without my over/under algorithm. This week it lost -$287 and -$1,020 of that came from three teams Colorado, Montreal, and Seattle. All three teams followed up high scoring games with unders; ergo a large majority of my losses came from blown overs misdirected by some recent high scores. That being said, up until bedtime Thursday night, my week was looking like another winner.
Despite this trio of over-spoilers, my weekly balance did not dive deep into the red until Friday night when disaster struck. On Thursday afternoon, I broke an 18-game streak of betting the Arizona Coyotes to win, choosing instead to switch my allegiance to the best team in the league, Boston. I had stayed aboard the Coyote bandwagon too long as they lost 10 times in 11 games, seeing Boston as the perfect opportunity to disembark, going in big on the moneyline with a little something extra on the puckline -1.5 goals. Arizona won 4-3, I lost -$650.
Arizona has punched above their weight for most of the
season, but I was starting to look foolish for stubbornly staying aboard the
bandwagon (even though you’d still be posting profit betting them to win every
game this year). Of course, the moment that I disembarked that bandwagon, David
slayed Goliath. Boston outshot Arizona 46-16, with Karel Vejmelka playing
spectacular. Karmically, this was actually well deserved as Vejmelka was one of
my top fantasy hockey waiver recommendations for the week, so there was some
poetic justice that he delivered this defeat.
This week could have been much worse if not for my ticket aboard another bandwagon, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and my streak of 8 consecutive games betting them to win (Toronto winning 7). It has been a lucrative journey. It’s no coincidence that their victory against New Jersey on November 23 was the spark that lit my fire. They have climbed from #28 in my week 6 Power Rankings all the way up to #18 by week 9. Their unders are also 6-3-2 in the last 3 weeks, which has helped add to my bottom line (the last 7 days notwithstanding).
Underdogs got off to a fast start this week, performing well on Monday and Tuesday before regressing. On the whole favorites moneyline did outperform underdogs, but longshots (>= +200 ML) did have themselves a good week, bolstered of course by that big Arizona win. Road favorites performed particularly well, unless you bet a whole bunch extra on Boston to beat Arizona. Road teams were favored 20 times, winning 14 and covering -1.5 goals in 11. Betting $100 on every road fave -1.5 goals would have yielded a nice $1,660 reward.
It’s worth noting that road dogs were a net loser on the moneyline, so this most recent road trend was being driven by good teams in the visiting dressing room. Doesn’t necessarily mean you should start betting every road team, but there is growing evidence of value on the visiting side (road moneyline was my best category in the first quarter). This now marks 2 consecutive weeks of substantial profit for favorites -1.5 goals, which I haven’t been properly exploiting. My curiosity has been aroused, and I’ll continue to monitor the demographic.
This might have been a good week for favorites, but it
was a bad week for heavy favorites (at least -200). It’s no coincidence then
that longshots performed considerably better than the lesser dogs. Carolina
(-265) lost to Anaheim (I bet the Ducks because the line was off), Calgary
(-245) lost to Columbus (I bet the BJs because the line was off), the Lightning
(-240) lost to Detroit (I bet the Wings because the line was off). The Kraken
(-215) lost to Montreal, but I was on Seattle that game because Montreal played late the night before. Most of my longshot
success came from confusion over expensive line prices.
The Blue Jackets actually generated the most profit for me this week (more on that below), helping offset another of my issues, the trajectory reversal by the New York Rangers. I’d begun having success shorting the Rags after an awful first quarter of them falling short of my high expectations. They went 3 for 3 this week, and I went 0-3. Fortunately those bet amounts were relatively small, and I went 2 for 3 on their over/under, so it wasn’t a complete disaster. But it’s worth taking note that the Rangers might be out of their funk, but not yet at the stage where they have earned my trust.
My Week 9 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
Overs started staging a comeback Monday to Thursday, when there was an average of 7.1 goals per game, until unders went 13-9-2 Friday to Sunday. Technically goal scoring is up from the first quarter to the first 136 games of the second quarter, but there was also an increase in games under 6.5 goals (from 50.6% to 54.4%), with a handful of really high scoring games, a few involving Seattle. It does feel like Martin Jones is personally responsible for the scoring increase, but I won’t go to the trouble of quantifying if that’s true.
It also seems to me that oddsmakers are getting smarter about setting proper totals. You would have lost money betting every over or every under for the previous 3 weeks, as the totals have been set really close to ideal equilibrium. My own algorithm had some fantastic weeks in that span, generating strong returns from both overs and unders. This was actually my first week since the very first week of the season in which I posted a net loss on over/under, and that was before my algorithm had been put into use (because the sample was too small).
As previously mentioned, Colorado-Montreal-Seattle threw
the curveball that struck out my formula the last 7 days. The Kraken followed
up a 17-goal game with 4 consecutive unders of 6 goals or less (then hitting
the over on Sunday). But each of the previous 4 unders was within a single goal
of the over or a push. Kraken unders were on an 8-2-1 run at one point in early
December, which is why my back-up consultant algorithm with the longer memory
disagreed with each of the 4 strikeouts following the 17 Gs. Despite the off week,
my algorithm is still running a 7.4% profit on the season.
My Team of the Week: Columbus Blue Jackets, +$713
One team that has confused me this season is Columbus, as they fell from #8 in my Power Rankings at the end of week 3, down to #28 seven days ago. This week though, there was a little more clairvoyance in my BJ bet selection. I went 3 for 4 picking their wins and losses, plus 3 for 4 picking their over/under. They went 2-2 as a team, so it’s not like they were hot. My best results came when they lost to Buffalo then upset Calgary. Frankly Calgary hasn’t been good enough to be a -245 favorite on the road against anyone. On Sunday I bet BJs to beat the Kings and the over, with both hitting.
The Florida Panthers were my second best team of the
week, but none of the proceeds came from betting them to win. It shouldn’t come
as any surprise then that they went 1-3 this week, with me unwilling to pay
expensive prices on their lines. People keep telling me that advanced stats
indicate nothing is wrong with this team (Bobrovsky aside), so most of my
wagers are small amounts on opponent underdog moneylines, which had a high rate
of return the last 7 days. I also went 3-1 on their over/under.
My Worst Team of the Week: Montreal Canadiens, -$900
This was a terrible week for me betting on Montreal Canadiens games, whether betting them to win or lose, over or under. It started with the Habs blowing a 4-goal lead against Vancouver on Monday when I had Montreal +170 and a little extra on the alt puckline -1.5 goals at +400. I bet double on the under, and it went over. Then they played against the mighty Kraken the very next night, and engineered an upset with me betting Seattle. I bet double on the over, and it went under. Montreal ranked #2 in my Power Rankings at the quarter mark before American Thanksgiving, now have fallen all the way to #26.
The Washington Capitals were my second worst team, a squad that I’ve bet against for 11 consecutive games (hint: they’ve won 7 of those), a streak that I need to end. They started the season so poorly and were devastated by injuries, which generated substantial profit for my portfolio. They ranked #5 in my Power Rankings by the end of week 6, and fell the way to #23 by Sunday’s victory against Winnipeg. Who would have thought Charlie Lindgren would win 4-straight games with a .949 SV% after an injury to Darcy Kuemper? Certainly not me.
2) Road favorites moneyline: +$381 2) Road favorites moneyline: +$432
3) Betting vs back-to-back ML: +$240 3) Longshots moneyline: +$385
2) Heavy favorites ML: -$417 2) Underdogs +1.5 goals: -$585
3) Over: -$328 3) Home moneyline: -$465
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
2) New Jersey Devils: +$337 2) New York Rangers: +$713
3) Detroit Red Wings: +$225 3) Winnipeg Jets: +$642
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Montreal Canadiens, -$250
3) Minnesota Wild, -$250
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Washington Capitals, -$550
3) New York Rangers, -$450
2) Pittsburgh unders, +$215
3) Chicago unders, +$210
Team By Team Power Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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