This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.
My
latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting
Prospectus is now available. It's a
comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by
team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful
information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic,
peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market
trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey
betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length,
and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon
store.
Enjoy! Please note: The formatting on the
graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among
the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.
Joe Sakic has done a fabulous job in recent years building the Avalanche into a Stanley Cup champion, after having missed the playoffs for all of his first 3 years in the position. Joe inherited the team from Greg Sherman, who only made the playoffs once, losing in the first round.
This team struggled to find a good General Manager early in the salary cap era, with high turnover at the position. They went through a 10 year stretch where they missed the playoffs 7 times, but their fortunes changed when Joe Sakic pulled off a miracle heist in the Matt Duchene trade, and the team has not missed the playoffs since.
This is another organization that doesn’t like spending big money on unrestricted free agents. Joe was fortunate to roll the dice long-term on MacKinnon, which is among the top 5 contracts league-wide since the salary cap was introduced.
1. Nathan MacKinnon
Signed By: | Joe Sakic | Position: | F | |
Date: | 2016-07-08 | Age July 1st: | 20 | |
Term: | 7 years | | Playoff GP: | 60 |
Total Money: | $44.1M | | Playoff PTS: | 80 |
Cap Hit: | $6.3M | | Stanley Cups: | 1 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
46.0 |
420 |
495 |
1723 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
6.6 |
82 |
97 |
336 |
20.8 |
"I was just excited to get paid that much money at such a young age."Nathan MacKinnon wants you to know that he doesn’t care that his contract is a ridiculously low-priced mega-bargain, and claims he’ll take another discount on his next deal. Too bad the Avalanche don’t re-invest their savings and spend to the cap. On the open market, MacKinnon could get whatever price he wants, even a max deal, as most consider him to be among the five best players in the NHL. It’s ironic to say that a kid who banked $44M is critically underpaid.
MacKinnon came within an inch of winning the Hart Trophy in 2018 and will be a perennial contender for the foreseeable future. Nate was actually slightly over-paid in year one, then was shot out of a cannon in year two. It doesn’t matter who you put on his line, he’s a machine. Nate also made Mikko Rantanen a rich man. MacKinnon signed an extension to become the league's highest paid player after winning the Stanley Cup, so he won't have to live off food stamps anymore...
Fun fact: MacKinnon signed for the exact same year one adjusted cap hit as fellow first overall pick John Tavares received on a 6-year deal in 2011. That may not be a coincidence. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also received a comparatively similar deal 3 years earlier. There was a historical precedence for this structure.
2. Cale Makar
|
Signed By: |
Joe Sakic |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2021-07-24 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
20 |
|
Total Money: |
$54.7M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
29 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$9.1M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
54.7 |
77 |
86 |
240 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
9.1 |
82 |
92 |
256 |
25.7 |
"There’s not really one defenseman in the league that’s like him. He’s already one of the fastest players in the league. His first two or three steps are amazing. I could go on and on all day."Cale Makar captured the title of best NHL contract in my 2022 Twitter poll series in his first year of eligibility. He won by a reasonably wide margin, though not as large as I was expecting. What Makar has done in his brief NHL career has been astounding. To quote myself from a Tweet, Makar isn’t just “generational”, as there have been 2 or 3 generatons pass through the league since the last time we saw a D-man this good.
He’s one of the best skaters we have ever seen on the level of Connor McDavid, drawing comparisons to Bobby Orr very early in his tenure. Makar scored 180 PTS in his first 178 regular season PTS, adding another 60 PTS in 55 playoff games with a Stanley Cup. This contract could end with 2 or 3 championships.
3. Devon Toews
|
Signed By: |
Joe Sakic |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2020-10-27 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
30 |
|
Total Money: |
$16.4M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
21 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$4.1M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
16.5 |
119 |
88 |
279 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
4.1 |
82 |
61 |
192 |
25.1 |
"Devon is a smart, two-way, puck-moving defenseman who is a durable defender and is excellent in transition”When Lou Lamoriello decided to move Devon Toews to Colorado to clear cap space, we may never know if 2 second round picks was the best offer he received and/or if Lou called every potential buyer to try and squeeze the most value as he could. My guess is, he didn’t make that many phone calls, because the trade was quickly exposed as highway robbery.
Toews new contract with Colorado was announced at the same time as the trade, so it was likely negotiated before the deal was finalized. In his first season with the Avs, Toews climbed from 34 PTS per 82 GP up to 48. That rate jumped even higher in year two, up to 71 PTS per 82 GP. This contract helped the Avs win the Stanley Cup.
4. Mikko Rantanen
|
Signed By: |
Joe Sakic |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2019-09-28 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
42 |
|
Total Money: |
$55.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
55 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$9.25M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
1 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
55.8 |
169 |
199 |
538 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
9.3 |
82 |
97 |
261 |
20.1 |
“Nathan just wants to win and, obviously, the landscape is different than it was a few years ago. Mikko’s going to get ahead of him, but that’s just the way the league’s gone the last few years.”If you want to be able to squeeze your young restricted free agents into team friendly bridge deals, it’s probably not a good idea to slot them on a loaded top line with one of the league’s best players. When Rantanen, MacKinnon, and Landeskog were all moved to the same unit, the entire trio elevated their production into the elite tier.
Over the final 2 years of his ELC, Rantanen scored 171 PTS in 155 GP (90-point pace) with an additional 18 PTS in 18 playoff games. Since the young Finn lacked arbitration rights, Joe Sakic could have taken the hard-line approach and refused to pay him more than MacKinnon, who deserved an enormous amount of credit for Rantanen’s success. The ideal solution would have been to say “okay Mikko, we’ll pay you $6.25M per season and add an extra $3M to Nathan’s salary”. That would have made the most sense, unfortunately, that’s not permitted under the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Instead, Joe paid the entire sum to the lesser player. Once Mitch Marner extracted $10.9M per season from Kyle Dubas, the market price for Rantanen was set.
Year one was much of the same, a stunning point-per-game success, with the winger missing several games due to injury. This wage is by no means a bargain, but getting 6 years of cost certainty for an elite scoring winger is still a great contract, even without a discount. While MacKinnon did elevate Rantanen’s production, Nathan was also a demonstrably more productive player when Mikko was on the ice. So this “what came first, the chicken or the egg” debate cuts both ways.
5. Tyson Barrie
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2014-09-04 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
|
Total Money: |
$5.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$2.6M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
6.1 |
158 |
102 |
311 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
3.1 |
82 |
53 |
161 |
22.3 |
“He is a gifted young defenceman who brings a lot of offence. We are pleased to have him under contract and look forward to his contribution this upcoming season.”Tyson Barrie played 106 NHL games over the span of his entry level contract, scoring at a 39-point pace. That level of production from the blueline should have yielded a higher price on his 2nd contract, instead Tyson agreed to a similar sum that Eric Gudbranson procured 2 months earlier at the same age following a 9-point season.
Spoiler alert: Barrie proved to be a much more lucrative investment, scoring 102 PTS in 158 GP (53-point pace), like getting a $7M player for the rock-bottom price of $3M. The Avalanche would double his salary on the next contract, and even that would prove to be an underpayment relative to Barrie’s production.
6. Matt Duchene
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2012-06-23 |
Age July 1st: |
21 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
2 |
|
Total Money: |
$7M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
3 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$3.5M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
9.0 |
118 |
113 |
349 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
4.5 |
82 |
79 |
243 |
19.5 |
“The next contract, I’ll be looking for a longer-term deal worth more”Matt Duchene scored 67 PTS in his sophomore season and appeared to be on his way to superstar status before injuries derailed his progress. The young center only scored 28 PTS in 58 GP during the final year of his ELC, limiting the amount that he would be able to command on his next contract. Duchene would agree to a bridge deal significantly above the price of a 28-point player, comparable to what Claude Giroux had signed 18 months earlier, roughly a 50-point pay grade (note that Claude signed a November extension well before he finished with 76 PTS).
The downturn that Duchene had experienced proved to be just a blip in the radar, as he would score at close to a point per game pace over these two seasons (netting 113 PTS in 118 GP), earning himself a big bag of cash when this was finished. There would be another downturn coming, as he never came close to the 70-point threshold again until the final season of that big contract.
7. Tyson Barrie
|
Signed By: |
Joe Sakic |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2016-07-31 |
Age July 1st: |
24 |
|
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
18 |
|
Total Money: |
$22M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
12 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5.5M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
23.5 |
290 |
193 |
747 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
5.9 |
82 |
55 |
211 |
22.4 |
"As you know, it was a bit of a process. Arbitration's not fun to go through, but it's part of the business, and I'm excited the Avalanche has shown faith in me.”Tyson Barrie had been scoring near a 50-point pace for the previous 3 seasons before requiring a fresh treaty at age 24. The two sides had gone to arbitration to argue his value, and would reach this agreement before the arbitrator had reached a decision. They would settle on a salary closer to what Barrie was demanding, but the catch was a 4-year term that sold a year of unrestricted free agency at a discount.
Tyson would push his ceiling even higher, scoring 57 and 59 PTS in years two and three, after which he was traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs for Nazem Kadri. The Leafs missed the playoffs, and Barrie would finally hit the open market during a pandemic that devastated NHL revenue.
8. Gabriel Landeskog
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2013-08-15 |
Age July 1st: |
21 |
|
|
Term: |
7 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
39 |
|
Total Money: |
$39M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
39 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5.6M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
42.6 |
488 |
378 |
1278 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
6.1 |
82 |
64 |
215 |
19.6 |
“In just two seasons, Gabe has already proven to be a great asset to our organization both on and off the ice. The fact that he has agreed to a long-term deal shows that he believes in this team, his teammates and the direction of this franchise moving forward.”Gabriel Landeskog scored at a 48-point pace over the first two seasons of his entry level contract and at age 19 became the youngest captain in NHL history (11 days younger than when Crosby got the Penguins C). Joe Sakic would sign him to a 7-year extension at an exceptionally high price given his scoring output at that point in his career arc (Evander Kane had signed a similar deal with the Jets one year earlier). If it looked like Gabriel might be overpaid, he put that to rest in the final campaign of ELC, scoring 65 PTS.
The first half of this contract returned mediocre offensive production bottoming out in year three when he only contributed 33 PTS in 72 GP. Then when the secret recipe of Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen was discovered in 2017/18, everything changed. The Avs captured lightning in a bottle. Landeskog stayed in Colorado when this ended, signing an 8-year $56M deal that you won't find on this list.
9. Semyon Varlamov
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
G |
|
|
Date: |
2011-07-02 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
3 |
|
Total Money: |
$8.5M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.913 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$2.8M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
|
Total |
3.6 |
151 |
78 |
2.61 |
0.917 |
“The injuries are behind me. I just need to train very hard for a new season, new city, new club. I need to be ready. I see a big future in Colorado, and I don’t want to think about my injuries.”Semyon Varlamov had just finished his entry level contract with the Washington Capitals when the Caps traded him to the Avalanche for 1st and 2nd round draft picks. The next day Greg Sherman locked up his new goaltender to a 3-year bridge deal very similar to what Corey Crawford had signed 6 weeks earlier (and Carey Price 1 year earlier).
Varlamov was thrust into the primary starting role for a bad Avalanche team, and predictably saw a decrease in his save percentage. The Russian was able to handle a heavy workload, but did not begin providing elite goaltending until Patrick Roy came to town as the new head coach (he had been Semyon’s favorite goalie growing up). Varlamov would win 41 games with only 14 losses and a .927 SV%, earning a Vezina trophy nomination. He also earned a big day that you can read all about on the Avs worst contracts list.
10. Andrew Brunette
|
Signed By: |
Pierre Lacroix |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2005-08-06 |
Age July 1st: |
31 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
9 |
|
Total Money: |
$1.6M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
9 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$800K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
3.2 |
164 |
146 |
302 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
1.6 |
82 |
73 |
151 |
16.3 |
"He has demonstrated the ability to score goals and make plays at every level he’s been and we feel he has the skills and the ability to excel in this new era of the NHL."By age 31, Andrew Brunette had played 7 full NHL seasons, passing the 60-point threshold only once (69 PTS in 2002). Still, the winger had scored 59 PTS for the Wild before the 2005 lockout, and should have been able to solicit more than $800K (he’s not the only victim of the league-wide cap crunch that August). Darren McCarty received the exact same contract 4 days earlier, and he only scored 11 PTS in 43 GP in 2004 (granted Darren did have more Stanley Cup rings on the career scoreboard).
While players are not supposed to get better after their 30th birthday, that’s exactly what happened to Brunette, posting 2 of his best seasons (including a new career high 83 PTS at age 33). If you made a list of players in the salary cap era who have crushed their career best by at least 14 PTS at age 33 or higher, it’s very exclusive company…(insert long pause)…Okay, I looked it up, and the only names on that list are Andrew Brunette and Mark Giordano. Father Time can take the “L” in those cases (also 39 players over the age of 30 set a new career high in 2006 during the obstruction crackdown).
11. Joe Sakic
|
Signed By: |
Francois Giguere |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2006-06-20 |
Age July 1st: |
36 |
|
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
|
Total Money: |
$5.75M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5.75M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
10.8 |
82 |
100 |
258 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
10.8 |
82 |
100 |
258 |
20.2 |
“At this stage of your career, it’s year by year, but definitely hopefully two more.”At age 36, Joe Sakic proved that he had plenty of fuel left in his gas tank, ripping 87 PTS with 32 tucks. Joe was a legend in Colorado and easily could have extorted any salary he desired, especially if only on a 1-year term, but it still wasn’t cheap. Ten days earlier, Teemu Selanne signed for significantly less on a 1-year term following a 90-point campaign (Teemu was taking a discount to squeeze into a Cup contending roster and won a championship).
Joe may not have won a title on this new deal, but he did crush the impressive point total he had previously posted, potting 100 PTS with 36 goals. This is my only best contracts list where an individual appears as both a player, and a GM signing contracts for the same organization. Rob Blake is on the Kings worst contracts list.
12. Ryan O’Reilly
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2014-07-23 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
|
Total Money: |
$12M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$6M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
14.1 |
153 |
115 |
328 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
7.1 |
82 |
62 |
176 |
20.7 |
''Some people might look a little sideways that a team has done that to a special player, but they certainly have the business right to do that and Ryan is mature, but there’s a history a little bit on the previous contract and Ryan is a stubborn young man.''It took an offer sheet from Jay Feester to settle Ryan O’Reilly’s previous contract dispute with the Avalanche, which had been back-loaded to require a significantly higher qualifying offer on the next deal. When it came time to pay the piper, Joe Sakic exercised the team’s right to take the player to arbitration so he could argue that Ryan wasn’t worth his QO, which had been the result of a “predatory” signing. The two sides never made it to arbitration, agreeing on a 2-year deal for less than the QO. The bad news for Colorado was that it put the young center on the fast track to unrestricted free agency at age 25 (as a 7-year vet).
O’Reilly produced 115 PTS in 153 GP while playing over 20 minutes per game winning 55% of his face-offs. Enough damage had been done in the relationship between the player and management that he was inevitably traded to the Buffalo Sabres for a package of players and a 2nd round draft pick. There was $52M waiting for Ryan when this expired.
13. John-Michael Liles
|
Signed By: |
Pierre Lacroix |
Position: |
D |
|
|
Date: |
2005-08-18 |
Age July 1st: |
24 |
|
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
9 |
|
Total Money: |
$450K |
|
Playoff PTS: |
3 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$450K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
1.0 |
82 |
49 |
154 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
1.0 |
82 |
49 |
154 |
18.5 |
“John-Michael showed us that he is capable of being the kind of player that will excel in the new NHL. He’s a very smart, skilled player who has a bright future ahead of him.”John-Michael Liles led all rookie defensemen in scoring during the 2004 season with 34 PTS and should have been worth more than the league minimum in August 2005 but instead simply accepted his qualifying offer. Bryan Allen was the same age and received twice as much money from the Canucks 3 days earlier after scoring only 7 PTS in 74 GP in 2004.
Liles returned from the lockout on fire, like many other players, nearly cracking 50 PTS during the obstruction crackdown. If you can get 49 PTS from the blueline for close to the league minimum, that’s a home run. John did benefit from a whole bunch of extra power plays that year, but still that production at that price is golden.
14. Craig Anderson
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
G |
|
|
Date: |
2009-07-01 |
Age July 1st: |
28 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
2 |
|
Total Money: |
$3.6M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.933 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$1.8M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
|
Total |
2.6 |
122 |
62 |
2.71 |
0.915 |
“In Craig we feel we have addressed a very important need within our organization. His overall performance last year was very impressive and he is entering the prime years of his career.”When Craig Anderson signed with the Colorado Avalanche as a 28-year-old unrestricted free agent, he had only played 109 career games, having never won a full-time gig as a starting goaltender in the NHL. But he had posted very impressive numbers in Florida as a back-up to Tomas Vokoun over the previous 2 seasons, with a .928 SV% in 48 GP. Anderson would accept a nearly identical deal as Dan Ellis one year earlier in Nashville.
Anderson put up 62 Wins, 45 Loses, with a .915 SV%. In year two he was traded to Ottawa for Brian Elliot, and caught fire in his 18 games for the Sens, with a 2.05 GAA and .939 SV%. Craig spent the next decade in Ottawa.
15. Ryan O’Reilly
|
Signed By: |
Greg Sherman |
Position: |
F |
|
|
Date: |
2013-02-28 |
Age July 1st: |
21 |
|
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
7 |
|
Total Money: |
$10M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
6 |
|
Cap Hit: |
$5M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
|
Total |
12.8 |
109 |
84 |
267 |
|
|
Per 82 GP |
6.4 |
82 |
63 |
201 |
19.5 |
“Sometimes the process takes a little longer than you expect, or than you’d want.”Ryan O’Reilly spent the 2013 lockout playing in the KHL, but did not immediately return to the NHL because the team was refusing to meet his contract demands. The young center had sat out 40% of the abbreviated regular season, until he was able to procure an offer sheet from a desperate Jay Feaster, under incredible pressure to win in Calgary. The Avs quickly matched, but it was soon revealed that O’Reilly would have had to clear waivers to join the Flames, having played in Russia after the NHL season started. The Flames would have lost both O’Reilly and the picks. Feaster was fired a few months later and hasn’t sniffed another GM job since.
While the whole process might have been contentious, the investment itself proved to be worthwhile. Time was lost in year one dragged down the score, but year two produced a successful 64 PTS and 19.8 minutes of average time on ice. On a per 82 GP basis, O’Reilly was actually underpaid.
No comments:
Post a Comment