Predicting the future has been a hobby of mine for more than a quarter century. Way back in high school, I wrote a history term paper on Nostradamus (got an A+), and also received a silver medal in the District Science Fair (the computer science division) for my project “Predicting NHL Scoring Outcomes”. I’ve come a long way in the last 25+ years, posting annual lists of sports predictions on New Year’s Eve for more than a decade. Unlike my free agency predictions, this list is less scientific. There were no algorithms used here, just me brainstorming ideas.
One thing that became very clear early in my sports predictions career, is that my pick to win the Stanley Cup seemed cursed. It started when I picked Pittsburgh to win the Cup, then Crosby got concussed at the Winter Classic. Every year I picked Pittsburgh to win and some extraordinary folly knocked them out of the playoffs. Then as soon as I stopped picking Pittsburgh, they won back-to-back Cups. I picked Washington to win, they got embarrassed, but then won the next year. I picked St. Louis when they were one of the best teams in the league, they collapsed and missed the playoffs, only to win the Cup the next year.
The evidence was overwhelming that my annual Stanley Cup pick is a genuine curse. Once there was undeniable proof that I have the power to affect who does not win the Stanley Cup, I started picking the Toronto Maple Leafs to win every year (starting in 2019). The embarrassing loss to Boston, that was me. Getting knocked out by Columbus in the Covid-bubble play-in series, that was me. Getting upset by a Montreal team that barely made the playoffs, that was me. I’m a life-long Red Wings fan who hates the Leafs dating back to the old Norris division rivalry. But my experience has taught me, if I stop picking Leafs to win the Cup, they’ll win that season. I can’t stop.
I’d
like to take a moment to plug my new book, The Hockey Economist’s Betting
Prospectus. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey
betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is
plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers
pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons
learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic
have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are
discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit
the Amazon store.
To view last year’s
list of predictions, click
here:
1. The Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup
2. Erik Karlsson wins the Norris trophy
3. Connor McDavid scores more points than any player in the salary cap
era
4. The Toronto Blue Jays win a playoff or wildcard series
5. Tyson Fury fights and fights and defeats Usyk
6. Buffalo Bills lose in the Super Bowl
7. Mike Tyson fights one of the Paul brothers
8. The Milwaukee Bucks win the NBA championship
9. The Atlanta Braves win the World Series
10. Zero NHL games are postponed due to Covid
11. Arizona Coyotes lose stadium referendum
12. Conor McGregor does not win a sanctioned fight
13. Felix Auger-Aliassime wins a major tennis tournament
14. Tiger Woods wins a golf tournament
15. Lindy Ruff wins Jack Adams
16. Canada does not lose a game at World Junior Championship
17. Connor Bedard goes to Anaheim
18. Moritz Seider signs an 8-year extension in July for at least $8M cap
hit
19. Linus Ullmark wins the Vezina trophy
20. Vlad Guerrero jr hits at least 50 home runs (including playoffs)
21. Somebody hits a hole-in-one at a Sandbagger
22. Matty Beniers wins Calder
23. Neither Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, or Connor
Hellebuyck sign a long-term extension to stay in Winnipeg
Thought about it
*Phil Kessel doesn't
miss a game
*Vancouver Canucks
hire a new coach
*Ryan Reynolds
becomes owner of the Ottawa Senators
*Toronto Maple Leafs
hire new coach and general manager
*Jason Robertson wins
the Hart trophy
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