If you’re looking for a big picture commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, you should check out my new book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
You may also want to check out my 23 Sports Predictions for 2023, and my midseason contract predictions for pending free agents.
My Weekly Profit: $1,670
Happy New Year! If you have a resolution to make more informed betting decisions, then you’ve come to the right place. My only resolution is to maintain my current trajectory, as my life doesn’t require any major changes, well except maybe to stop betting Montreal overs (which have cost me a pile of money in the second quarter). Speaking of Q2, we are only 7 days away from halftime and my next quarterly report is already 65% done. Perhaps we should all make a resolution together to stop betting Carolina opponents, as the Canes have taken the league by storm, winning 15 of their last 16 games.
It was a prosperous New Year’s Eve for me, banking nearly $1,000 on Dec 31. The biggest victory was from Winnipeg beating Edmonton, where I wrote in my game notes “you’re offering Jets +120 against Edmonton on a back-to-back with Jack Campbell in goal? Yes please!” I was not expecting Nathan MacKinnon back quite so soon when I bet Toronto to beat the Avalanche, but they still won the game convincingly 6-2 despite the superstar’s return. I also went in big on Washington to beat Montreal, and Alex Ovechkin lit up the scoreboard brighter than Time Square. It was a great way to end 2022.
In other news this week, the Arizona Coyotes delivered a pair of Christmas miracles with two long-shot upsets against Colorado & Toronto cashing moneylines at +215 & +225 and alt pucklines -1.5 goals at +500 & +550, rewarding anyone who faithfully stayed aboard their bandwagon through a dark December. I had bet Yotes to win for 18 consecutive games, then strayed for a match against Boston when David slayed Goliath, strengthening my faith. Some of you might want to consider adopting a resolution to start betting Coyotes to win more often, though my concern is that as the trade deadline approaches and they start unloading talent, it could get ugly…(insert Coyote Ugly joke)
Another big underdog that you did not want to bet against this week was the Philadelphia Flyers, who managed to win their first two games without Carter Hart. This proved especially costly for me personally, expecting the floodgates to open and collapse imminent. Instead, they delivered road wins against San Jose and Los Angeles. They didn’t exactly slay Goliath, so maybe it’s my own fault for laying down $750 on two California teams to win those matches. Their next 2 games are against Anaheim and Arizona before the schedule toughens up. The collapse may yet come.
This was yet another big week for me on the road moneyline, which I’ve been pumping for several weeks as my best category for the entire season, nearly doubling my next best category. It’s not something I’m intentionally targeting, but rather being pointed in that direction by my line value algorithms. At no point this season did I say to myself “start betting road teams more often”. I did not even grasp the scope of my success until compiling my 1st Quarter Betting Report, it all just materialized in the sum of all my individual bet choices. I’m a bargain shopper, and tend to shy away when there’s an obvious tax on a line.
My theory about the increased profitability of road moneyline is that the public is disproportionately betting home teams, forcing oddsmakers to tax the home lines, because it’s not a matter of road teams winning more games than they have in the past. They’re still at the standard 47%. It’s actually road favorites that are driving my success, where I’ve generated a 22% return in the first half (compared to 4% for road dogs). I’m only picking the correct outcome in 51.8% of my moneyline wagers, but I’m getting good value on the lines I’m betting, especially when I’m investing in a good team.
The Buffalo Sabres increased their lead in my Power Rankings and would have been my #1 team of the week had they defeated Ottawa on Sunday. Never in my wildest dreams would I have foreseen joining the Sabres Booster Club after the last two seasons. Nor could I have predicted being this effective at picking their wins and losses, unless maybe they were losing most of their games in an exploitable way. I boarded the bandwagon very early in the season, liking the generous payouts on their moneylines. They delivered some big upsets and earned my gratitude. Aside from a 2-week losing streak, the gravy train has been rolling along unabated.
My Week 11 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
This was the second week of 12 this season where overs and unders finished tied, ironically enough the other was the Thanksgiving shortened week. My over/under algorithm struggled Monday to Friday, down nearly -$600, as goal scoring decreased and unders re-asserted themselves. That was until overs went 10-6-1 on the weekend, drawing them into a tie. My algorithm is down -$244 in the second quarter, as it struggled in December. A big problem has been outlier high scoring games followed by a run of unders. I should test a few modifiers to streamline outlier games.
The Calgary Flames and Colorado Avalanche were personally responsible for all the problems experienced by my algorithm this week, losing a combined -$1000 on the duo. If you subtracted those two teams, my rate of return on O/U would have been a respectable 7.1%. So instead of sitting here lamenting the poor performance, I’ll just lay the blame on these two renegade teams. Basically for Calgary, the formula was led astray by the 10-goal game vs San Jose and a 7-goal game vs LA. The next 4 went under and I bet over. Colorado unders were on an 8-0-1 run before their overs went 3 for 3. Shit happens.
It was another good week to bet against back-to-backs
moneyline and +1.5 goals, but less so -1.5 goals. Although if you bet $100 against every btb
disadvantage the last 5 weeks, you’re up $1,732, you just lost -$313 this week. Whereas btb moneyline is up $768 in
that same span with same sized bets, posting a profit in 6 of the last 7 weeks.
Though it should be noted, that would only be $605 of profit on the closing
line. Whatever tax oddsmakers charge for btbs, the public is willing to pay it,
driving the prices even higher by puck drop. If you want to bet these, it’s
important to get in early.
My Team of the Week: Toronto Maple Leafs, +$727
It was a competitive race to the top of my weekly leaderboard as of Friday night, with 4 different teams all within $100 of the lead, but it was the Toronto Maple Leafs that emerged victorious after their defeat of the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday. I made a big bet on the Leafs before finding out MacKinnon would be back, but they still won 6-2 despite Nate’s return. Toronto finished #28 in my first quarter Power Rankings, but that’s also right around the time they got hot and I boarded the bandwagon. They have the 2nd highest win % in the second quarter and have climbed to #10 in my bet ranks.
My second best team of the week was the Chicago
Blackhawks, which is my other second quarter success story, but for opposite
reasons. Dennis Green was referring to a Chicago team when he said his famous
quote “THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!” making it the perfect quote to
describe the Chicago Blackhawks, who were inexplicably in a playoff spot in mid
to late October. The Hawks are 2-16 in the second quarter, climbing from #32 in
my Q1 ranks, all the way up to #15. Let’s just say I got hit hard by their 4-2
start, and had a big hole to dig myself out of.
My Worst Team of the Week: Ottawa Senators, -$1,207
The Ottawa Senators were a thorn in my side this week, after climbing to the #2 slot in my Power Rankings in week 10, which they held in week 11. It got off to a bad start Tuesday with their upset of Boston, followed by another upset of the red-hot Washington Capitals on Thursday. The Sens had been playing better in December, but the only reason I laid big money on them to lose was because of the opponent. Boston is the best team in the league and I’ve been riding the Caps a lot lately. The Sens just caught me with my head down. I also took a -$250 loss when they beat my beloved Sabres on Sunday.
The Calgary Flames were next worst on my weekly
dishonor roll, mostly due to failed over/under picks. Entering this week I had been doing well when
betting them to lose, but they won 2 of 3, which now makes 4 wins in their last
6. It’s time to start exercising a little more caution when betting Flames
opponents, as the going had been good in that regard, but not the last 2
weeks. Jacob Markstrom has a .910 SV% the last 14 days, so clearly he doesn’t
suck anymore.
1) Road moneyline: +$1,138 1) Home underdogs -1.5 goals: +$435
2) Home favorites -1.5 goals: +$979 2) Betting against back-to-back ML: +$374
3) Favorites moneyline: +$596 3) Betting against back-to-back +1.5 goals: +$251
2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: -$250 2) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: -$540
3) Under: -$228 3) Betting against back-to-back -1.5 goals: -$313
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
2) Arizona Coyotes: +$645 2) Philadelphia Flyers: +$800
3) Buffalo Sabres: +$522 3) Dallas Stars: +$569
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Boston Bruins, -$273
3) San Jose Sharks, -$273
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
(over/under/hedges not included)
2) Philadelphia Flyers, -$750
3) Tampa Bay Lightning, -$450
2) Calgary unders, +$284
3) Winnipeg unders, +$273
Team By Team Power Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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