Welcome to my Week 14 NHL Betting Report, featuring my
Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst
teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real
money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real
money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like
the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it
provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my
weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines
for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to
see my Week 13 Betting Report.
If you’re looking for a big picture commentary on the
last 3 years of hockey betting, you should check out my new book; breaking it down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is
plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers
pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons
learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic
have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are
discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit
the Amazon
store.
My Weekly Profit: -$1,128
My Season Profit: $11,307
Welcome to the first week of the second half, which
I spent digging myself a hole. It was an ominous beginning to my third quarter, which all
unfolded while hard at work compiling my Second Quarter Betting Report (which
will be posted either Tuesday or Wednesday). You’d think that taking a 15,000
word deep dive into everything that worked and didn’t work in the last 6 weeks
would help your output in the current week, but that was not the case here. Nor
is that the first time that lessons learned while writing one of my quarterly
reports cost me money early in the next quarter. Trends change, sometimes
abruptly.
I was down -$461
heading into Sunday’s 3-game slate, and decided to go "all in" on 2 of the heavy
favorites against teams who played the night before, hoping some back-to-back
action would salvage my week. My line value estimators scared me away from
Carolina, but also tried to warn that New York was considerably over-priced
against Montreal. The cautionary advice was ignored, and I went "all in". Sam
Montembeault stopped 38 of 39 shots to defeat Igor Shesterkin. That’s a bad
beat. Not my first Rangers bad beat. There's been a few.
This was a shockingly outstanding week for road
underdogs +1.5 and -1.5 goals, road favorites -1.5 goals, and road moneyline. I
can’t tell you the common thread that tie those categories together, other than
it was a good week for road teams. The profitability of road teams is a major
theme my upcoming quarterly report as the rate of return was very encouraging.
Their winning percentage only went from 47% to 48.5% from Q1 to Q2, but that was enough to
give road favorites a 10% return on the moneyline, and 20% on the puckline -1.5
goals.
I sustained a big loss on the home moneyline as road
teams won 56% of the games. Road moneyline might have been my best category,
but I can’t exactly brag about it considering I lost a greater sum on home
moneyline. There wasn't any tactical brilliance informing my moneyline wagers, as I
was a net loser on home vs road. The success of road teams is also why this was
a good week to bet underdogs, but only on the road. Home dogs were net losers
on the moneyline, +1.5 goals, and -1.5 goals.
If you were betting the Buffalo Sabres to
lose this week, you surely cashed some nice tickets. Sadly I found myself on the wrong side of those, as my faith in the
mighty Sabres hasn’t wavered….well at least until I noticed they cost me money
this week, falling out of first place in my Power Rankings. The new leader is
the San Jose Sharks. Buffalo had won 4 of 5 entering the week, then lost 3 of
4. Speaking of teams who formerly occupied top spot in my ranks, the New Jersey
Devils seem to be heating up again, currently on a 6-2 run. Lately they’re a
tremendous road team and weak at home.
The New Jersey
Devils weren’t the only team to save me from an even greater loss, as assistance was also provided by the Seattle Kraken, who have 8 games in a row. What’s incredible is that 7 of
those games were on the road, as they were a major contributor to the success
of visiting teams this week. I’m continuing to get destroyed betting their
over/under, but in the last 8 weeks I’m up $1,200 betting their wins and
losses. Their game log is contaminated with scattered outlier high scoring
games, and have an 11-game streak alternating back and forth from over to
under.
The Washington Capitals only played twice, but lost
both as big favorites against the Philadelphia Flyers, who covered -1.5 goals
in both at +350 and +400. While I might have been riding the Caps for a lot of
the 2nd quarter, I had Philly in both those games. The Flyers have
won 7 of 8 matches and cost me a pile of money early in that hot streak, which
helped make me a believer. The Bruins also only played twice, but you could
have hit a nice pay on Seattle (+190 moneyline and +475 -1.5 goals) to win. I
had the Kraken in that one.
My Week 13 Results
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly
$100 on every outcome.
It was “red Monday” for my over/under algorithm,
losing -$700 in 4 games, which was also the last
day of the season’s 2nd quarter. It was a losing quarter for the
algorithm, and the flaws that led to that loss will be discussed in my upcoming
quarterly report, which will be coming soon. The method performed well Tuesday
to Friday, then just laid a giant terd on Saturday, going 4-10. It wasn’t even
that one side or the other was dominant that day, just that the decisions of my
algorithm were awful.
This last month of malaise has me paying a little
closer attention to the algorithm’s recommendations. Instead of just accepting them
all blindly, I’m looking at the game logs to see if there are any outliers having an
exaggerated impact. During the All-star break I’m going to test some
modifications to discount the impact of outlier games, but in the meantime will
be executing more manual overrides. All my decisions for each game are made in
a “game summary” worksheet, that imports season stats and game logs for both
teams involved, informing my choices.
Arizona overs were on a 5-2 run entering the week,
then their unders went 3-1. Ottawa unders had been rolling, then they had some
uncharacteristically high scoring games. The Leafs had hit 5 consecutive overs
before their unders went 4-1. There was too much flip flopping for my algorithm
to succeed. Not sure how I can modify my method to account for that, but we’ll
see. I’m still running a 2.8% return on over/under for the season, so it hasn’t been a
complete catastrophe (but it was over 10% a month ago). Unders were a net winner in Q2, but overs are out to an
early lead in Q3.
My Team of
the Week: Carolina Hurricanes, +$1,398
The Carolina Hurricanes were by far my worst team of
the week in my previous report, my second biggest loss betting any team to lose
this season. It pained me deeply, but I kept the faith. Specifically, my
biggest loss in their previous week was going “all in” on their loss to
Columbus. The two teams met again this week, and I made the exact same giant
wager on Hurricanes to win. They won 6-2. There have been plenty of past
instances where a big loss like that inspired to flip allegiances on the rematch,
only to lose twice. Canes wanted revenge. They faced the Canucks on Sunday, but my line value algorithms didn't want anything to do with their -260 price, so I took Vancouver, who won in a shootout.
It’s no coincidence then that Columbus was my 2nd
best team of the week, given my jackpot in their loss to Carolina, but that’s
only half the story. I placed a large wager on Tampa to win at home, then bet
Columbus to beat Detroit because for some reason the BJs were +200. The Wings
haven’t been good enough lately to be -240 against an AHL team. Columbus unders
were one of the best bets of the second quarter, but suddenly their overs are 5-1
in their last 6 games (I cashed in on the last two). Be advised, Blue Jacket
overs might be resurging!
My Worst Team
of the Week: Colorado Avalanche, -$1,017
The Colorado Avalanche were among the best teams in
the league to bet against in the second quarter, and I was fully aware of that
while compiling my Q2 Betting Report this week. Yet Nathan MacKinnon had recently
returned from injury, so I’ve been expecting them to get hot. When they were
about to play a struggling Chicago Blackhawks team with Petr Mrazek in goal and
Patrick Kane lost to injury, I got a little too greedy. My success betting
Chicago to lose in Q2 overshadowed my success betting Colorado to lose. I went "all in", and the Hawks won. Big mistake.
This was a bad week for me betting Winnipeg Jets
games, even though they went 3-1 and I’m currently aboard their bandwagon. They
cost me a large wager when they lost 7-5 to Detroit, so next game I bet my
Buffalo Sabres as +115 home dogs, Jets won. They played the next night in
Pittsburgh, and I ONLY bet the Pens because of the back-to-back. Jets won 4-1.
Also, that 12-goal game vs Detroit influenced my algorithm to bet Jets unders
for the next 3 games, all went under.
My 3 Best Market
Bets of Week 13: Overall Best Market Bets of Week
13:
1) Road moneyline: +$890 1) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: +$1,380
2) Road favorites -1.5 goals: +$426 2) Road favorites -1.5
goals: +$866
3) Underdogs moneyline: +$410 3) Road
moneyline: +$828
My 3 Worst Market
Bets of Week 13: Overall Worst Market Bets of Week
13:
1) Home moneyline: -$1,422 1) Home
favorites -1.5 goals: -$2,110
2) Shorting back-to-back ML+PL: -$1,159 2)
Heavy favorites -1.5 goals: -$1,070
3) Favorites moneyline: -$743 3) Home
moneyline: -$1,052
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 13: Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5
+ $100 PL-1.5)
1) Seattle Kraken: +$1,005 1) Philadelphia Flyers:
+$1,861
2) Carolina Hurricanes: +$650 2) Seattle Kraken:
+$1,149
3) New Jersey Devils: +$614 3) New Jersey Devils: +$1,024
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week
13
(over/under/hedges not included)
1) Colorado Avalanche, -$1,000
2) New York Rangers, -$750
3) Dallas Stars, -$350
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week
13: Overall Best
Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included) ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5
+ $100 PL-1.5)
1) Columbus Blue
Jackets, +$679 1)
Washington Capitals: +$1,209
2) San Jose Sharks,
+$473 2)
Buffalo Sabres: +$673
3) Anaheim Ducks,
+$427 3)
Boston Bruins: +$602
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week
13:
(over/under/hedges not included)
1) Philadelphia Flyers, -$500
2) Montreal Canadiens, -$402
3) Winnipeg Jets, -$350
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week
13:
($100 wagers)
1) Edmonton
overs, +$327
2) Vancouver
overs, +$320
3) Islanders
unders, +$291
Team By Team Power
Rankings
These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including
where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based
on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.
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