Nashville Predators 15 Best Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book Hunting Bargains in a Salary Cap World, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here. One thing you won't find here are entry level contracts because they all come from the same cookie cutter and require less skill at the negotiating table.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 

Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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The Nashville Predators have been a consistently good team throughout the salary cap era, making the playoffs in a large majority of seasons, helping GM David Poile keep his job for that entire span. The backbone of the team’s success has been on the back end, with a seemingly never-ending pipeline of quality young defenseman and world class goaltending from Pekka Rinne and later Juuse Saros.
 
Poile has displayed a remarkable talent for roping young players into long-term deals at cheap prices right before they’re about to break out. If I had to guess the secret behind that Jedi mind trick, you need to convince players NOT to bet on themselves. You need to sell the safety and security of guaranteeing income over a longer period, emphasizing the risk of potentially losing future earnings in the event of injury or regression. The Preds may not have delivered any championships to Nashville, advancing to the finals in 2017, but they provided enough victories to make Poile the winningest General Manager in NHL history.
 
 
1. Roman Josi
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2013-06-10		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	61
Total Money:	$28M		Playoff PTS:	32
Cap Hit:	$4M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	31.7	532	379	1571
Per 82 GP	4.5	82	58	242	25.6

“Roman has proven, with his growth and success here in Nashville and on the international stage, that he is one of the best young defensemen in the NHL. Roman’s skating ability and instincts have allowed him to play in all key situations. With today’s signing, we have our top defensive pairing locked up long-term, and we look forward to Roman’s continued development and contribution to the Predators’ on-ice success.”

– David Poile

Roman Josi still had not broken out as an offensive weapon when Poile decided to offer him a 7-year extension. The Swiss defenseman had only played 100 games in the NHL but was already logging heavy minutes in his sophomore campaign. Whether or not Poile foresaw the potential scoring ceiling, it was at the very least clear that Josi was a gifted player.
 
The ascent happened fast. His points per game almost doubled from the last year of his entry level to the 2nd year of this contract. By year two he scored 55 PTS and averaged 26.5 minutes of ice time. One person who certainly failed to forecast that future apex was Josi’s agent, who sold his client short on a 7-year term that would not expire until Roman was 30-years-old.
 
This had the potential to backfire in a Mattias Ekholm sort of way, but luckily for Josi, he became so incredibly good that the Predators still paid him $72M at that age. He left some money on the table in the front end, but he might reclaim it on the back end depending how he ages. 
 
 
2. Mattias Ekholm
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2015-10-26		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	51
Total Money:	$26.3M		Playoff PTS:	26
Cap Hit:	$3.8M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	27.4	435	188	810
Per 82 GP	3.9	82	35	153	23.4

"I don't have to work a day in my life if I don't want to when my career is done. I'm trying to focus on that instead of trying to be sour or mad about maybe I could have made a dollar more here or there. It's not relevant in my mind at least."

– Mattias Ekholm

Mattias Ekholm scored 18 PTS in 80 GP during his sophomore season, averaging 19 minutes per game of ice time. David Poile smelled an opportunity, while still reaping the benefits of the Josi heist, he slipped another 7-year extension to a young Euro who didn’t yet know how good he could be. The ink on the paper hadn’t even dried before Ekholm started pushing his ceiling higher.
 
It doesn’t state in the press release whether or not Ekholm’s agent tried to convince his client to take a 1-year deal and test free agency. Mattias might have left as much as $20M in career earnings on the table, but is not the least bit concerned. The Preds were pretty generous with his next contract, so he’ll be okay.
 
3. Pekka Rinne
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	G
Date:	2010-02-24		Age July 1st:	27
Term:	2 years		Playoff Wins:	11
Total Money:	$6.8M		Playoff SV%:	0.917
Cap Hit:	$3.4M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	4.5	137	76	2.26	0.926

"What we learned about him in Milwaukee basically confirmed Kekalainen's report and our interview with Pekka. He's not a real difficult personality. He's one of the most likable and positive and genuine people you'll meet. You wish that he does really well."

– Paul Fenton

Pekka Rinne spent 3 seasons in the AHL before earning a full-time promotion to the Predators. Once he was in the show, it did not take long to wrestle the primary starting duties from Dan Ellis. The big Finn never looked back. David Poile had him on a cheap 1-year ticket that would have made Pekka an unrestricted free agent on July 1st. He was near the 100-game mark in his career when this was autographed, and should have been able bank a larger sum had he tested the market (having been 4^th in 2009 Calder voting, he’d generated buzz).
 
Poile made a slick move getting him on this 2-year bridge, both seasons earning Vezina trophy nominations. Rinne posted a .926 SV% and 51 goals saved above average, plus 22 playoff games with a .917 SV%. Rinne became one of the league’s best goalies. At the end of this contract Rinne would become the highest paid goaltender in the NHL.
 
 
4. Shea Weber
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2008-06-23		Age July 1st:	22
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	18
Total Money:	$13.5M		Playoff PTS:	8
Cap Hit:	$4.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	19.3	241	144	727
Per 82 GP	6.4	82	49	247	24.2

“He is both a player and a person that every team covets. He is big and strong, skates well, and possesses a booming shot. Shea has also been a part of championship teams from the Memorial Cup in 2004 and the World Junior Championship in 2005, to the World Championships in Russia last summer.”

– David Poile

Shea Weber had already scored 17 goals and 40 PTS in a season before he was even eligible to autograph a new deal, so it was clear to everyone how much this kid was worth and where the ceiling could be. David Poile had not yet perfected the buy low long-term Jedi Mind Trick in 2008, but it wouldn’t have worked here regardless.
 
Shea didn’t take any discount, getting paid like a 40-point player despite injury costing him a chunk of his 2008 season before he’d signed this extension. The investment still proved to be a bargain, as Shea scored at a 49-point pace over the span of the treaty. In 241 GP he scored 55 goals, 144 PTS with 727 shots. He was nominated for the Norris trophy in year three.
 
Contract negotiations got contentious after this, with the two sides going to arbitration, resulting in the largest arbitration award in league history (in annual salary).
 
 
5. Ryan Ellis
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2014-09-24		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	61
Total Money:	$12.5M		Playoff PTS:	30
Cap Hit:	$2.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	14.0	334	170	669
Per 82 GP	2.8	82	42	164	22.3

"I met with David, everything went well and we're both happy with how everything shook out in the end"

– Ryan Ellis

Ryan Ellis spent the first 2 years of his entry level contract splitting time between the AHL and NHL, finally earning a full-time promotion in the final season. The young defenseman was used sparingly, only playing 16 minutes per game but still scoring 27 PTS. He received fair compensation for his performance, but locking into a 5-year term is a head scratcher from his perspective because it presumes he’ll to stay at that level.
 
It took some time to get this treaty ratified, as he went unsigned into training camp. I’d love to see a behind the scenes documentary of how this negotiation unfolded and how Poile steered the bus to this end. Ellis failed to foresee the growth in his immediate future, and even sold a year unrestricted free agency.
 
Ryan did battle some injuries, but scored at a 42-point pace per 82 games for which he was paid 31 cents on the dollar. His next contract after this bargain also qualified for this list.
 
 
6. Ryan Suter
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2008-06-16		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	28
Total Money:	$14M		Playoff PTS:	10
Cap Hit:	$3.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	19.5	313	167	517
Per 82 GP	4.9	82	44	135	25.0

“Usually, when you have the best defense, I think that gives you a real good chance to compete for the prize, and that's ultimately what we want to do. That's why we're here today, and that's why we've taken another step in signing one of our core players in Ryan Suter.”

– David Poile

June 2008 was a good month for David Poile, locking up both Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to bargain contracts, autographed within a week of each other. Shea was 5 years away from unrestricted free agency, whereas Ryan had a 4-year path available. Weber got a higher salary, but Suter got a direct path to UFA after scoring 31 PTS in the last year of his ELC, his best season to date. This was nearly the same deal as Brent Seabrook inked 4 months earlier, but an extra year.
 
Poile paid for a 30-point, 20-minute defenseman, and received a 44-point, 25-minute defenseman. Suter quickly became an “all situations” workhorse, but unlike Ekholm years later, Suter did not require a tutorial on how to maximize career earnings. Ryan had $98M waiting for him in Minnesota.
 
 
7. Juuse Saros
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	G
Date:	2021-08-16		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	4 years		Playoff Wins:	0
Total Money:	$20M		Playoff SV%:	0.000
Cap Hit:	$5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	5.0	67	38	2.64	0.918

" Juuse has proven himself as one of the best young goaltenders in the NHL, and we are very pleased to have him remain our No. 1 goaltender for years to come"

– David Poile

Juuse Saros had big pads to fill in Nashville with the retirement of Pekka Rinne, and Poile made a smart gamble getting him on this ticket. Saros was nominated for the Vezina trophy in year one at a relatively cheap price tag. This is where my obligatory “failed to maximize career earnings” speech should go, but the goalie aging curve is not the same as skaters. Still, Saros had just finished 6th in Vezina voting and was less than a year away from unrestricted free agency. Why sign a 4-year term set to expire shortly after his 30th birthday? My goalie E[FA$] algorithm priced his 2021 stat line above $7M.
 
Saros had played 155 NHL games with a .920 career SV%. What was the David Poile Jedi mind trick to get him to sign 4x5? That’s not betting on yourself. That’s getting excited to be offered $20M. That being said, given the volatility of goaltending performance, it might have been the smart move. Take the sure thing, because if he had a bad year, that offer wouldn’t be on the table anymore. Goalies can still hit big pay days in their 30s (maybe not max term), but the aging curve is different.
 
 
8. Patric Hornqvist
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2013-04-30		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	5 years		Playoff GP:	58
Total Money:	$21.3M		Playoff PTS:	36
Cap Hit:	$4.3M		Stanley Cups:	2

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	24.9	362	248	1195
Per 82 GP	5.0	82	56	271	16.9

"He is one of the fiercest competitors in the National Hockey League. He has that net presence like nobody else. He's a courageous player. He can score goals. He brings a lot of energy to our team."

– David Poile

Patric Hornqvist had mostly been toiling in the 40-50 point range when he needed a new contract after the lockout shortened 2013 season. He could have been UFA in 1-year, but instead accepted a 5-year term that would expire at age 31. The Swedish winger would set a new career high of 53 PTS in year one, but found himself moving to Pittsburgh in the James Neal trade in the summer of 2014
 
Now would be the opportune time to introduce a trivia question, how many non-entry level contracts signed by David Poile and the Nashville Predators since 2005 have won the Stanley Cup? Exactly one, and he won 2 in Nashville Pittsburgh. While this might have put him in a difficult situation of postponing his UFA status to age 31, the Penguins still gave him another 5-year term despite his rising age (that you can read about on the Penguins worst contracts list).
 
 
9. Pekka Rinne
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	G
Date:	2011-11-03		Age July 1st:	29
Term:	7 years		Playoff Wins:	32
Total Money:	$49M		Playoff SV%:	0.914
Cap Hit:	$7M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	8.2	373	203	2.40	0.917

"Essentially, it came down to the fact there was a commitment that needed to be made to a potential free agent who finished second in the Vezina Trophy voting and fourth in the MVP voting, that was going to be substantial. The Predators made the commitment."

– Agent Jay Grossman

Pekka Rinne had developed into one of the league’s best goalies and could have tested unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2012. After back to back Vezina trophy nominations, Rinne undoubtedly would have hit a home run on the open market. Poile had no choice but to back up the Brinks truck, extending him in November, making him the league’s highest paid goalie.
 
This contract wasn’t all “sunshine and lollipops” as Pekka regressed into a below average goaltender in year one (during which he celebrated his 30th birthday) before requiring major hip surgery that later became infected, costing him a chunk of the next regular season. After the first 2 years, this was looking like it might belong on the Predators worst contracts list, but the big guy bounced back once he regained his health in year three and got better as he aged into his mid 30s.
 
Pekka was 35-years-old when he collected his first Vezina trophy as the league’s best goaltender, the year after he helped carry them to the 2017 Stanley Cup final with a .930 playoff SV%. So while there were years when this looked bad, the overall investment has to be considered a success.
 
 
10. Juuse Saros
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	G
Date:	2018-07-16		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	3 years		Playoff Wins:	2
Total Money:	$4.5M		Playoff SV%:	0.923
Cap Hit:	$1.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	1.5	107	55	2.53	0.919

"We're extremely fortunate to have a young guy like Juuse here who continues to impress us"

– Peter Laviolette

This is the second Juuse Saros deal to debut on this list, not appearing in my 2020 book. The goalie had played less than 50 NHL games when it was signed, and was the back-up to Pekka Rinne when it began. In year two, Saros began to wrestle the starter’s net away from the aging star, but still had not arrived in the elite tier of puck stoppers. 

The massive bargain did not occur until year three (2021) after my book had already been published. That’s when Saros carried the Predators into the playoffs with a .927 SV%, earning a nomination for the Vezina trophy. Getting goaltending that good for $1.5M is an unreal underpayment. Lucky for Poile, they signed him to an extension before that spectacular breakout.
 
 
11. Filip Forsberg
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2016-06-27		Age July 1st:	21
Term:	6 years		Playoff GP:	51
Total Money:	$36M		Playoff PTS:	38
Cap Hit:	$6M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	37.8	384	336	1183
Per 82 GP	6.3	82	72	253	18.1

"While we have already seen his creativity, hockey sense and puck skills, he has yet to reach the peak of his abilities. We have full confidence that he will continue to blossom into one of the top players in the world."

– David Poile

Filip Forsberg came to Nashville courtesy of the Washington Capitals who traded their former 11th overall draft pick to the Preds to rent Martin Erat for a few months. The Swedish winger established himself as a star player in his first full season, scoring 63 PTS in 2015 (finishing 4th in Calder trophy voting). Poile wouldn’t be able to use his “slip him a long-term extension before the breakout” trick because the breakout happened too soon.
 
Forsberg received a very similar deal to Gabriel Landeskog 3 years earlier, but one less year of term. Johnny Gaudreau would sign a similar pact of his own a few months later, and Pastrnak one year later. Filip did sell one year of UFA despite being 27 at its expiration because he would have played 7 seasons at age 26.
 
Over the first 4 years of this deal, Forsberg scored at a rate of 65 PTS per 82 GP, and was limited by injury issues in years three and four. He added another 34 PTS in 41 playoff games. 
 
 
12. Dan Hamhuis
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2006-09-21		Age July 1st:	23
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	17
Total Money:	$8M		Playoff PTS:	5
Cap Hit:	$2M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	12.8	321	97	461
Per 82 GP	3.2	82	25	118	22.0

“But we certainly see players like Dan Hamhuis and Shea Weber and Ryan Suter as some of the best young defensemen in all of the NHL. They’re three players you’d like to build your team around for a long time.”

– David Poile

Dan Hamhius accepted a far lower salary than a 38-point, 22-minute defenseman should expect to get paid, granted he did benefit from increased power play time during the obstruction crackdown, before Suter and Weber had broken out offensively.
 
After he was leapfrogged on the power play depth chart, Danny dropped down to 20 PTS in year one. Over the 4 years, the Hammer played 321 games, scoring 97 PTS (25 PTS per 82 GP), averaging 22 min per game of ice time, also becoming a crucial penalty killer. He logged a ton of ice time for a cheap price and the term allowed him to walk the fast-track to unrestricted free agency. He left for greener pastures in Vancouver.
 
 
13. Rich Peverley
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2008-07-25		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	0
Total Money:	$975K		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$488K		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	1.5	148	99	283
Per 82 GP	0.8	82	55	157	17.5

"It's tremendous to be able to contribute. To get an overtime winner was great but it was also a great play by Kovalchuk."

– Rich Peverley

When it came time to sign a new contract after the 2008 season, Peverley had only played 46 career games (52 including playoffs) and had been splitting his time between the NHL and AHL. He had no leverage to demand anything more than the league minimum, which is what he got.
 
Rich would score 9 PTS in 27 GP for the Preds in year one before they attempted to send him to the minors but he did not clear waivers, getting scooped up by the Atlanta Thrashers Winnipeg Jets. Once he moved to Georgia Manitoba, Peverley caught fire, scoring 35 PTS in 39 GP (thanks in part to playing with Ilya Kovalchuk).
 
By year two, the center was playing almost 19 minutes per game, scoring a career high 55 PTS. The Thrashers Jets signed him to an extension, but then traded him to Boston for Blake Wheeler, winning the Stanley Cup in 2011. The rest is history. It’s pretty rare to see anyone on a “best contracts” list get waived. Oops. Even Poile makes mistakes sometimes, as you can read all about when their worst contracts are posted.
 
 
14. Marek Zidlicky
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2006-05-08		Age July 1st:	29
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	11
Total Money:	$13.4M		Playoff PTS:	5
Cap Hit:	$3.4M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	21.5	312	158	499
Per 82 GP	5.4	82	42	131	21.7

“He's a terrific passer. He sees the game well. He has a great shot. He just does everything extremely well. He has that knack, that offensive gift that very few players have.”

– Paul Karyia

Marek Zidlicky scored 53 PTS as a 26-year-old rookie in 2004, and continued scoring at that rate when the NHL resumed after the 2005 lockout. He could have become a free agent when his previous deal expired, but chose instead to autograph an extension with the Predators.
 
The Czech defenseman saw his scoring dip in year one, but rebounded in year two with 43 PTS, remaining close to that number for the remaining term. The rise of Weber, Suter, and Hamhius made Zidlicky a bit redundant in Nashville, so Poile traded him to the Minnesota Wild after year two for Ryan Jones and a 2nd round draft pick. Unfortunately, both Jones and the pick were busts, while the Wild enjoyed their new power play quarterback.
 
 
15. Calle Jarnkrok
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2016-07-27		Age July 1st:	24
Term:	6 years		Playoff GP:	45
Total Money:	$12M		Playoff PTS:	13
Cap Hit:	$2M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	12.6	407	184	673
Per 82 GP	2.1	82	37	136	15.9

"A year ago, Calle just took his qualifying offer. We had some discussions about a one- or two-year deal, but we probably weren't convinced enough of what Calle could do or what he could be. It became clear that Calle and his side was looking for more security."

– David Poile

What makes the Calle Jarnkrok contract unique is that no other deal in the salary cap era for 6 or more years has been for this small a salary (both in adjusted and actual cap hit). The next closest is teammate Colton Sissons who signed to similar terms 3 years later. It’s unlikely that any agent would advise their client to lock in for this long at that low of a salary, unless they have no confidence whatsoever in their client’s growth potential.
 
Jarnkrok isn’t flashy and will never hit a high point total, but he’s still a very effective “middle 6” role player on a small price tag. Through the first 4 years, the Swede has produced like a $3.3M player, averaging 15.7 minutes per game of ice time, scoring 35 PTS per 82 GP.
 
According to Poile’s own account of the negotiating process, it was Jarnkrok who was seeking something long-term. So this was very likely a “well if you’d like something long-term, this is the best we can do” type of situation. Once this precedence was set, they convinced Colton Sissons to take something similar down the road. We haven’t quite seen this trend spill over into other organizations.