Nashville Predators 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.

My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 

Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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There is a reason that David Poile has been able to sustain his employment as the Nashville Predators General Manager since 1997. Unlike Garth Snow, who kept his job way longer than he should have given the results on the ice, Poile’s run has largely been a success. The team has been consistently competitive in the salary cap era, and shrewd management has been among the key factors.
 
Poile’s victories at the negotiating table have been staggering, as their best contracts list boasts an impressive array of bargain deals. Though most of those achievements have been on the back end, where he has arguably been the best GM in the league at building his blueline. Keeping the puck out of their net has been the foundation of their success, but putting the puck in the back of the other team’s net has posed a greater challenge.
 
When you start to examine the big swings that David Poile has taken at the forward position, the warts start to appear. Giving out big ticket contracts to Kyle Turris, Ryan Johansen, and Matt Duchene in recent years has created a road-block. They missed the playoffs in 2020, as the Pekka Rinne dynasty came to a crashing halt. Suddenly the outlook is looking bleaker than it has been in a long time.
 
 
1. Kyle Turris
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2017-11-05		Age July 1st:	28
Term:	6 years		Playoff GP:	6
Total Money:	$36M		Playoff PTS:	2
Cap Hit:	$6M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	36.4	117	54	166
Per 82 GP	6.1	82	38	116	15.5

"I felt like I played the exact same game I would have played if I didn't sit seven straight games"

– Kyle Turris

David Poile pulled off an interesting maneuver when he acquired Kyle Turris in a 3-team trade with Colorado and Ottawa, but paid a hefty price in Sam Girard, Vlad Kamenev, and a 2nd round pick. Poile secured Kyle’s autograph on a new extension immediately following the trade, as the center was a pending UFA at age 28.
 
Turris reached his apex in 2015 with 64 PTS, and had since been trending downwards. Turris is a great character guy who adds leadership to the dressing room, helping Ottawa to the Conference final in 2017. But Poile did not take proper notice of Kyle’s declining statistics, a problem that got drastically worse in year one of this contract. By year two he had become a regular healthy scratch to merit a buyout. 
 
 
2. Ryan Johansen
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2017-07-28		Age July 1st:	24
Term:	8 years		Playoff GP:	29
Total Money:	$64M		Playoff PTS:	22
Cap Hit:	$8M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	65.4	354	239	551
Per 82 GP	8.2	82	55	128	17.8

"This was kind of the goal in planning for the offseason. We've got our whole core signed up, a lot of guys for a lot of years. Hopefully, we've chosen correctly. I believe we've chosen correctly.”

– David Poile

David Poile paid a steep price to acquire Ryan Johansen from the Columbus Blue Jackets, giving up Seth Jones. Johansen had a contentious negotiation on his previous contract, which was a likely contributing factor on why the Blue Jackets wanted to part ways. Since Columbus had rushed him to the NHL as a teenager, Ryan had the opportunity to become an unrestricted free agent before his 27th birthday as a 7-year vet, giving Poile only 1 more year of team control after his current deal expired. That put the GM under pressure to get Ryan’s autograph on a long-term treaty.
 
Johansen’s first season in Nashville was a modest success with 61 PTS and a stat line that should have been priced in the $6M range. Poile had to offer a “sweetner” to lure the young center away from a potential July 1st bonanza. The first 2 years got a passing grade, despite being overpaid. Where this started to slip into a tailspin was year three when his stat line declined to 36 PTS in 68 GP. In May 2020 I ran a series of Twitter polls asking what’s the worst contract in the NHL, and Johansen finished 14th.  
 
 
3. Viktor Stalberg
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2013-07-05		Age July 1st:	27
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	6
Total Money:	$12M		Playoff PTS:	3
Cap Hit:	$3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	14.3	95	28	141
Per 82 GP	3.6	82	24	122	12.4

"I wanted to come to a team where I could have a bigger opportunity and play a little bit more"

– Viktor Stalberg

Viktor Stalberg arrived in Nashville as an unrestricted free agent at age 27 after scoring at a 40-point pace for back-to-back seasons in Chicago. He chose Nashville because he wanted to play for a good team that needed help on offense, where there would be an opportunity for greater playing time.
 
The Swedish winger would actually see his ice time flounder in a Predators jersey, with his scoring rate dropping by half.  In year two, he scored more PTS in the AHL than the NHL. In total, the Predators got 28 PTS in 95 GP before buying it out. Viktor would play 2 more years in the NHL before returning to Europe.
 
 
4. Matt Duchene
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2019-07-01		Age July 1st:	28
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	10
Total Money:	$56M		Playoff PTS:	7
Cap Hit:	$8M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	56.3	178	141	437
Per 82 GP	8.0	82	65	201	17.6

"We made no secret, I think, that we were trying to get him. He made no secret that he had an affinity for the city. Having said that, just to put everything on balance here, he did have other offers and he did visit other cities. I would think probably when you talk to him that he'd tell you this was the only place he wanted to play. Maybe that's me wanting to think that, but it's still part of a negotiation."

– David Poile

Matt Duchene was among the big prizes of the 2019 free agent class at age 28 after tying his career best 70 PTS in Ottawa, landing in Nashville on July 1st. Duchene spoke to the media as if Nashville was the only place that he wanted to play, so Poile had to come out and remind everyone that Matt indeed had other offers and David wasn’t just bidding against himself. Duchene got an almost identical contract as Logan Couture one year earlier, and certainly garnered a fair price contrasted with his comparables, about what you’d expect to pay for a 70-point, 19-minute center.
 
Spoiler alert: that’s not what they got. Duchene’s ice time dipped down to 16.9 minutes, and his scoring to 42 PTS in 66 GP. Though he did bounce back in year three, scoring 86 PTS and earning his cap hit. If he can sustain that revival for the remainder of the contract, this might need to be demoted.
 
 
5. Paul Gaustad
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2012-06-30		Age July 1st:	30
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	20
Total Money:	$13M		Playoff PTS:	1
Cap Hit:	$3.3M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	16.0	234	46	209
Per 82 GP	4.0	82	16	73	12.8

"We have a chance of winning the Stanley Cup. That has been my thought process the whole entire time is to win the Stanley Cup, and what my best options are and continuing to see with Nashville and what their gameplan is and moving forward as a team and organization — it's first class. I think every year we're going to have a shot at it. That was my main goal, was winning the Stanley Cup, I think Nashville will have a strong chance of winning it every year."

– Paul Gaustad

David Poile paid a 1^st round pick to acquire Paul Gaustad from Buffalo as a rental, and was on the eve of losing the center via unrestricted free agency when he locked him into a 4-year deal at age 30 for $4.1M in adjusted cap hit. It was very similar to what Jarret Stoll signed 8 days earlier, except that Gaustad procured an extra year. That’s an absurd price to pay for a 20-point, 15-minute center.
 
Every season Paul played in Nashville was worse than any season he played in Buffalo (at least in terms of PTS). Gaustad got old fast and became an overpriced face-off specialist. He also played 20 playoff games for the Predators, scoring 1 point. Where Stoll won a Stanley Cup on his deal, Gaustad most certainly did not.
 
 
6. J.P Dumont
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2008-01-31		Age July 1st:	30
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	9
Total Money:	$16M		Playoff PTS:	5
Cap Hit:	$4M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	22.3	226	129	377
Per 82 GP	5.6	82	47	137	14.6

"When he expressed a desire to stay in Nashville, we jumped at the opportunity to keep him as part of our team’s foundation."

– David Poile

J.P Dumont came to Nashville as an unrestricted free agent in 2007 at age 28 on a 2-year deal, and set a new career high each of those seasons, (66 PTS and 72 PTS).  The winger was scheduled to become UFA again at age 30 when David Poile locked him up for 4 more years with a January extension.
 
Year one yielded respectable results, scoring 65 PTS. But soon JP got caught in the crosshairs of Father Time, and started a nose dive that ended with 19 PTS in 70 GP and a buyout. Dumont was once a fine player, he just got chewed up by the aging process, yet another cautionary tale of what can happen when you hand out too much term over-30. That marked the end of JP’s NHL career.
 
 
7. Eric Nystrom
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2013-07-05		Age July 1st:	30
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	1
Total Money:	$10M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$2.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	11.9	185	40	207
Per 82 GP	3.0	82	18	92	13.5

“I know the type of system they play and the type of team that they have, and I think I fit in really well in that system”

– Eric Nystrom

Eric Nystrom had spent most of his career as a bottom six winger whose primary role was adding grit and physicality to the roster, never scoring more than 21 PTS in a season. He’s the type of player who would be fine on a $1.5M price tag, but Poile decided to give him twice that much on a 4-year term. It’s always a risky proposition to hand out generous money and term to 30-year-old bottom-6 grinder. His first season in Nashville was among the best of his career, statistically speaking, scoring 15 goals and playing almost 15 minutes per game of ice time, but that’s where the return began to diminish. Injuries did play a role in the decline, which should be expected with this type of player at that age.
 
In total the Preds got 185 GP and 40 PTS for $11.8M in summed adjusted cap hit.  That’s not very good value, but predictable. He was producing at a similar rate prior to this contract. Poile just made a bad decision and ended up buying out the final year. Nystrom would later sue the Nashville Predators for medical expenses claiming he’d been permanently disabled from the injuries he sustained while on the team. I suppose the $10M they paid him wasn’t enough to cover his bills…
 
 
8. Colin Wilson
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2015-07-27		Age July 1st:	25
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	46
Total Money:	$15.8M		Playoff PTS:	26
Cap Hit:	$3.9M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	17.4	255	104	400
Per 82 GP	4.4	82	33	129	14.1

"Colin would be the first to admit that he's getting better every day, more mature with his game. I think consistency is an area that he'd like to improve on a little bit. Once he can get the handle on that, maybe and hopefully last year was just the tip of the iceberg for what he can do offensively for us."

– David Poile

Colin Wilson potted a career high 42 PTS in 2015 before becoming a restricted free agent at age 25, having only ever played for Nashville. David Poile extended him a further 4-years, and had to pay a little extra to buy those 2 extra UFA seasons.
 
There as an immediate decline in scoring in year one (64 GP 24 PTS), but had a decent playoff with 13 PTS in 14 GP. There was an improvement in year two before Poile traded him to the Colorado Avalanche for a 4th round draft pick. Smith’s first year in Colorado was his worst since being a rookie in 2010 when he only played 35 games.
 
 
9. Matt Hendricks
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2013-07-05		Age July 1st:	32
Term:	4 years		Playoff GP:	0
Total Money:	$7.4M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$1.9M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	8.8	258	42	309
Per 82 GP	2.2	82	13	98	12.7

"We were very specific in the guys that we wanted, and we went out and got them"

– Barry Trotz

Matt Hendricks was originally a Nashville draft pick, but the Preds never offered him an entry level contract. The gritty center took the long road to the NHL, not earning full-time duty until age 28. He would eventually sign with the Preds at age 32 as an unrestricted free agent who had just scored 8 PTS in 48 GP during the lockout shortened 2013 season. Poile bestowed him with a 4-year term at double the price a bottom 6 grinder should be paid. July 5th 2013 is one day that Poile might choose to erase from history if he ever had access to a time machine, as he signed Stalberg, Nystrom, and Hendricks to contracts all on the same day (2 of which were future buyouts).
 
Hendricks would only play 44 games in Nashville, scoring 4 PTS, before he was unloaded on the Edmonton Oilers for a struggling Devan Dubnyk (who the Preds sent to the AHL). The risk of signing a 32-year-old player to a contract this long is significant. By year four he scored 7 PTS in 42 GP.
 
 
10. Matthew Lombardi
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2010-07-02		Age July 1st:	28
Term:	3 years		Playoff GP:	0
Total Money:	$10.5M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$3.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	13.8	92	26	151
Per 82 GP	4.6	82	23	135	13.7

"Unfortunately, Matthew Lombardi's concussion last season and recovery left us uncertain about his ability to come back for this season, and that uncertainty has made it difficult for us to move forward, plan and develop our lineup"

– David Poile

Matthew Lombardi had a career year with the Phoenix Arizona Coyotes at age 27 before becoming an unrestricted free agent, scoring 53 PTS and playing close to 18 minutes per game. Poile scooped him up on July 2nd 2010 with a 3-year deal at a fair price given the stat line. This might have turned out differently had Lombardi not suffered a serious concussion 2 games into his Nashville career.
 
The center would only ever play 2 games in Nashville before Poile traded him to the Toronto Maple Leafs with Cody Franson for a 4th round pick. Lombardi was able to return from injury to play 62 games with Toronto, but posted very disappointing numbers before getting flipped back to the Coyotes for another 4th round pick. He was moved again shortly thereafter to the Mighty Ducks before finishing his career in Switzerland.
 
 
11. Greg De Vries
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2007-07-02		Age July 1st:	34
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	6
Total Money:	$5M		Playoff PTS:	1
Cap Hit:	$2.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	7.7	148	20	104
Per 82 GP	3.9	82	11	58	17.1

“Greg de Vries has Stanley Cup experience as well as size and skill and he will be a mentor to our defense corps.”

– David Poile

Greg DeVries enjoyed the best season of his career in 2006 when he scored 35 PTS for the Atlanta Thrashers Winnipeg Jets. That production slipped the following season, but it was not a deterrent for Poile, who offered the 34-year-old a 2-year deal on July 2nd 2007. He was a former Stanley Cup champion who was brought in to mentor the Preds young defense corps, but he would ultimately prove that he didn’t have much gas left in his tank.
 
The point production and ice time dropped substantially each of season. In the last year of this contract he played 71 games with 5 PTS, -15, while averaging just 15min per game of ice time. This was the end of the road for DeVries, who never signed another NHL contract.

12. Pekka Rinne
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	G
Date:	2018-11-03		Age July 1st:	36
Term:	2 years		Playoff Wins:	0
Total Money:	$10M		Playoff SV%:	0.000
Cap Hit:	$5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Avg Adj Cap Hit	GP	W	GAA	SV%
Total	5.1	60	28	3.04	0.900

"Both the organization and Pekka want him to play his entire career with the Predators, and this helps accomplish that objective, while also stabilizing our goaltending for at least the next two seasons beyond 2018-19.”

- David Poile

Pekka Rinne won his first Vezina trophy at age 34 and followed that up with another strong performance at age 35 to conclude his previous contract that once made him the highest paid goalie in the NHL. The only evidence that Father Time had a foot in the crease came in the playoffs, when some untimely goals against had been responsible for some painful exits.
 
Poile locked in his franchise goaltender for 2 more years to provide a smooth transition to the Juuse Saros era. But the team was derailed in year one and failed to qualify for the playoffs with Pekka posting the worst save percentage of his entire career. 
 
 
13. Barret Jackman
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2015-07-01		Age July 1st:	34
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	14
Total Money:	$4M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$2M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	4.6	73	5	64
Per 82 GP	2.3	82	6	72	13.9

"It's obviously hard, especially as you get older. You want to play in every game, but the reality is that other guys are playing pretty well right now and the team's on a roll, so you've got to continue to stay sharp, never be a distraction to the team and be prepared when I do get back into the lineup."

– Barret Jackman

Barret Jackman enjoyed a long career with the St. Louis Blues when he signed as an unrestricted free agent with the Nashville Predators on July 1st 2015 at age 34. Jackman had never gained notoriety as offensive player and would not have been expected to fill that type of roll, but what should have raised alarm bells was the 7 consecutive seasons of declining ice time.
 
That deterioration took a fatal stumble in his first Nashville season, when he dropped down under 14 minutes of average ice time with several healthy scratches to earn himself a buyout. Very comparable to the Hall Gill situation except Jackman was 34, so a bit younger.
 
 
14. Hal Gill
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	D
Date:	2012-06-28		Age July 1st:	37
Term:	2 years		Playoff GP:	0
Total Money:	$4M		Playoff PTS:	0
Cap Hit:	$2M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	5.1	32	0	8
Per 82 GP	2.6	82	0	21	13.4

“Hal Gill brings our team a number of elements, size, penalty killing ability, depth on defense and playoff experience. He has won a Stanley Cup and played a combined 69 playoff games over the last four years, experience that significantly benefits our team.”

– David Poile

Hal Gill hit his apex at age 33 winning the Stanley Cup with the Pittsburgh Penguins, then playing a key defensive role helping the Montreal Canadiens upset the Penguins and Capitals the following year in 2010. But by the time David Poile traded Blake Geoffrion and a 2nd round pick for the 6’7 defenseman, the aging process finally started to take hold. Poile decided he wanted Gill beyond just a rental, extending the 37-year-old on a 2-year deal.
 
Gill played 32 games with 0 PTS while only averaging 13.4 minutes per game of ice time. It’s not a good idea to pay your 7th defenseman this much money, hence why Hal was bought out after 1 season. He would play 6 more games with the Philadelphia Flyers before retiring from professional hockey.
 
 
15. Martin Erat
 

Signed By:	David Poile		Position:	F
Date:	2008-05-12		Age July 1st:	26
Term:	7 years		Playoff GP:	30
Total Money:	$31.5M		Playoff PTS:	15
Cap Hit:	$4.5M		Stanley Cups:	0

 

	Adj Cap Hit	GP	PTS	SOG	ATOI
Total	42.0	474	292	772
Per 82 GP	6.0	82	51	134	17.3

“You’re here to win. We’ve been in that mode for a while. This is six years of trying to win a Cup...We had our rebuild phase, we sort of rebuilt things on the fly here, but we’d like to continue to make the playoffs while we’re doing it..”

– George McPhee, Washington GM

The best part of this contract for the Predators was that they managed to flip it for Filip Forsberg near the end. Erat was reasonably productive for the first 5 years, but the bottom fell out for years 6 and 7 when the Preds made the trade. This may belong on the Washington Capitals worst contracts list, except that it was signed in Nashville. 

Erat did receive a passing score of 51%, but he was overpaid by a total of $13.6M. This deal may have required a trigger warning for Caps fans, because it’s never fun to see you traded away such a bright your talent for a rental that didn’t help.