My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.
Enjoy! Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.
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The New Jersey Devils won 3 Stanley Cups during the Brodeur-Niedermayer dynasty, but lost their star defenseman shortly after the salary cap was introduced. Martin Brodeur still had some gas in the tank despite being 34 years old when the new CBA was ratified, winning a pair of Vezina trophies (2007 & 2008), helping the team make the playoffs 6 times in 7 years.
Signed By: | Tom Fitzgerald | Position: | F | |
Date: | 2021-11-30 | Age July 1st: | 21 | |
Term: | 8 years | | Playoff GP: | 0 |
Total Money: | $64M | | Playoff PTS: | 0 |
Cap Hit: | $8M | | Stanley Cups: | 0 |
| Adj Cap Hit | GP | PTS | SOG | ATOI |
Total | 64.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Per 82 GP | 8.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
"His future is incredibly bright and he will be a pillar for our franchise for years to come."The first two seasons of Jack Hughes’ career fell short of expectations for a first overall draft pick, scoring at a rate of 36 PTS per 82 GP. His year two stat line was worth in the neighborhood of $4.7M, but Devils management had the courage to offer him an early extension of 8 years at $8M believing in his upside. They were right.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
G |
|
Date: |
2006-01-27 |
Age July 1st: |
34 |
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff Wins: |
24 |
Total Money: |
$31.2M |
|
Playoff SV%: |
0.913 |
Cap Hit: |
$5.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Avg Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
W |
GAA |
SV% |
Total |
7.9 |
378 |
210 |
2.28 |
0.915 |
"Both parties are extremely pleased. He accomplished what he would like to accomplish and I believe we accomplished what we'd like to accomplish. It's as simple as that."Signing a 34-year-old player to a 6-year contract carries enormous risk, but it paid off for Lou Lamoriello. Brodeur accepted a lower salary than contemporaries Nikolai Khabibulin and Marty Turco, but was able to secure an extra 2 years term (which may have been deliberate to lower the average cap hit).
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2007-08-01 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
Term: |
4 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
17 |
Total Money: |
$12.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
15 |
Cap Hit: |
$3.1M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
18.6 |
257 |
247 |
1026 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.6 |
82 |
79 |
327 |
18.9 |
"Over the past two seasons, Zach has established himself as one of the outstanding young stars in the National Hockey League"By his second season in the NHL, Zach Parise scored 30 goals and 60 PTS before locking himself into a 4-year term at a low price tag. It was very close to what Mikko Koivu (a center) had procured one month earlier, but significantly less that what Nathan Horton had been paid by Florida for an almost identical stat line.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2005-09-21 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
9 |
Total Money: |
$627K |
|
Playoff PTS: |
7 |
Cap Hit: |
$627K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
1.3 |
82 |
89 |
291 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.3 |
82 |
89 |
291 |
19.8 |
Of all the non-entry level contracts signed since the induction of the salary cap, Brian Gionta accomplished a rare feat; no player has scored more PTS for less money (entry level notwithstanding). Coming out of the 2005 lockout, Gionta had accumulated 201 games of NHL experience, scoring 83 PTS (including playoffs, 34-point pace) and was a Stanley Cup champion. He had not yet showed his offensive upside, yet still deserved more money than this.“He’s an exceptional hockey player.”
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2006-07-01 |
Age July 1st: |
30 |
|
Term: |
5 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
25 |
Total Money: |
$14M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
16 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.8M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
21.9 |
378 |
263 |
1005 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.4 |
82 |
57 |
218 |
18.4 |
"He is the prototypical Devils player. He works hard. He is a team player. He is a quality individual."You won’t find many 5+ year contracts given to players over the age of 30 appear on one of my “best contracts” lists (there are 12 others to be precise, out of 450 (at least when my book was published in 2020)). Lou was taking a big risk by handing out this term to an aging veteran because he played a big role in a Stanley Cup victory a few years earlier (leading them in playoff scoring in 2003).
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2009-07-01 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
5 |
Total Money: |
$1.5M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
2 |
Cap Hit: |
$740K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
2.1 |
160 |
60 |
177 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.0 |
82 |
31 |
91 |
22.9 |
“We weren't worried about a qualifying offer. Unrestricted free agency wasn't something we were looking into."Andy Greene had showed very little offensive upside in his first 131 NHL GP, scoring at a 16-point pace over his first 3 seasons. When he needed a new deal at age 26, the expectations were low. So low in fact that Lou declined to give him a qualifying offer with a 10% raise. Greene actually tested the UFA market but had no intention of leaving Jersey, returning on July 1st at a miniscule price.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2005-08-04 |
Age July 1st: |
31 |
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
20 |
Total Money: |
$8.4M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
17 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
16.8 |
164 |
104 |
274 |
|
Per 82 GP |
8.4 |
82 |
52 |
137 |
25.5 |
"I can't do what Nieder does. I do what I do. Hopefully, that will benefit me. I've always been able to do things at a very high level. As far as pressure goes, I tend to do better under pressure."It’s hard to imagine how a defenseman with 2 Stanley Cups and multiple 40+ point seasons on his recent resume didn’t have more suitors with bigger offers, or if Lou Lamoriello had the inside track due to loyalty. Rafalski signed this shortly after teammate and future Hall of Famer Scott Niedermayer departed for Anaheim, presumably because the Devils did not have the cap space to retain both.
Signed By: |
Tom Fitzgerald |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2021-01-10 |
Age July 1st: |
21 |
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$5.6M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.8M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
5.6 |
122 |
103 |
298 |
|
Per 82 GP |
2.8 |
82 |
69 |
200 |
16.9 |
"Jesper Bratt's a big part of our team, he's a big part of our future. Things like this, sometimes the business side can take a little bit longer than you expect or want, but at the end of the day we're ecstatic that Jesper is back in the mix here.”Jesper Bratt scored 32 PTS in 60 GP in the final year of his entry level contract, and the new bridge deal he inked with the Devils was at the appropriate pay grade for that production. He showed immediate improvement in year one, raising his scoring rate from 44 to 53, but the real breakout came in year two when he scored 73 PTS in 76 GP (when he produced at more than double his pay grade).
Signed By: |
Ray Shero |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2017-09-11 |
Age July 1st: |
22 |
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
4 |
Total Money: |
$25M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
25.7 |
363 |
161 |
630 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.3 |
82 |
36 |
142 |
22.1 |
"Damon brings an important dimension to our hockey club and he is a young defenseman that we are excited to work with.”Damon Severson went directly to the NHL after graduating Junior hockey, and only played 3 AHL games over the course of his ELC, scoring 31 PTS in the final year. The young defenseman went unsigned all summer until inking this RFA pact in September. He had no arbitration rights and was at Ray Shero’s mercy if the GM decided to play hardball.
Signed By: |
Ray Shero |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2018-07-17 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
Term: |
3 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
45 |
Total Money: |
$5.4M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
24 |
Cap Hit: |
$1.8M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
2 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
5.5 |
199 |
99 |
535 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.8 |
82 |
41 |
220 |
16.5 |
"Blake proved himself this season with his work ethic, intensity level and competitiveness. He worked throughout the year to become a strong penalty killer who also had a positive impact in the offensive zone. We look forward to him continuing his development in the next stage of his career."Blake Coleman was a 3rd round pick of the New Jersey Devils in 2011, but had a delayed path to the NHL by staying in college the full four years. He potted 13 goals and 25 PTS in his first full season in 2018, and earned himself an appropriately priced contract for the stat line.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2005-08-12 |
Age July 1st: |
25 |
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
9 |
Total Money: |
$2.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
9 |
Cap Hit: |
$2.2M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
4.7 |
82 |
84 |
244 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.7 |
82 |
84 |
244 |
18.8 |
"You go up and see Lou in the big chair. You have to be accountable for what you do.”As has already been established, Scott Gomez wasn’t the only Devil to take a discount in the mighty cap crunch of 2005. Scotty was a 70-point player the previous season and had won multiple championships in a Devils jersey. There clearly was no promise by Lou to pay the discount back to Gomer on the next deal, as the two sides would go to arbitration in July 2006.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2013-08-26 |
Age July 1st: |
23 |
|
Term: |
6 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
4 |
Total Money: |
$24M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$4M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
27.6 |
477 |
268 |
828 |
|
Per 82 GP |
4.6 |
82 |
46 |
142 |
18.0 |
“The Devils are a great organization and I want to continue to be part of it. We are going to have a good team this year with some new players signed.”Adam Henrique scored 50 PTS as a rookie in 2012, scoring 13 playoff PTS while helping the Devils advance to the Stanley Cup final. Following a disappointing sophomore performance in the lockout shortened season, the young pivot agreed to a long-term extension (for a generous sum considering the 16 PTS he’d just produced in 43 GP), selling 2 years of unrestricted free agency.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2011-07-29 |
Age July 1st: |
26 |
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
24 |
Total Money: |
$6M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
15 |
Cap Hit: |
$6M |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
7.7 |
82 |
69 |
293 |
|
Per 82 GP |
7.7 |
82 |
69 |
293 |
21.5 |
“That's why he decided to accept a one-year contract. He wants to see where they are heading, what kind of players they have. They have acquired some good young players. He's not going to rush into anything. He'll take his time, analyze the whole thing.''The Devils narrowly avoided arbitration with Zach Parise after an injury plagued season, convincing him to return for one year before testing unrestricted free agency. The agreed upon salary was likely less than what the arbitrator could have awarded, but that wasn’t exactly a victory for the franchise, failing to lock up their star player to a long-term extension less than a year after dolling out $100M to Ilya Kovalchuk.
Signed By: |
Lou Lamoriello |
Position: |
D |
|
Date: |
2007-07-01 |
Age July 1st: |
25 |
|
Term: |
2 years |
|
Playoff GP: |
12 |
Total Money: |
$1.2M |
|
Playoff PTS: |
1 |
Cap Hit: |
$600K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
1.9 |
157 |
55 |
171 |
|
Per 82 GP |
0.9 |
82 |
29 |
89 |
20.0 |
"He has developed into one of the more talented young defensemen in the National Hockey League."Johnny Oduya played one season in the NHL on his ELC after coming over from Sweden and needed a new contract. He only notched 11 PTS as a rookie and wasn’t about to break the bank, signing for close to the league minimum on a 2-year term. Johnny had not yet developed into one of the more talented young defensemen in the league, but he would be two years later (according to Lou anyway).
Signed By: |
Ray Shero |
Position: |
F |
|
Date: |
2015-10-03 |
Age July 1st: |
32 |
|
Term: |
1 year |
|
Playoff GP: |
0 |
Total Money: |
$850K |
|
Playoff PTS: |
0 |
Cap Hit: |
$850K |
|
Stanley Cups: |
0 |
|
Adj Cap Hit |
GP |
PTS |
SOG |
ATOI |
Total |
1.0 |
82 |
51 |
146 |
|
Per 82 GP |
1.0 |
82 |
51 |
146 |
17.9 |
"You didn't need to train as hard as you get older, you need to train a little bit smarter. For me a big emphasis was on quickness and explosiveness and just try and keep up your ability to skate. I think that's a big thing because the game's getting so fast now that if you can skate it's a huge asset."By the time he reached his 30th birthday, Lee Stempniak wasn’t much better than a 30-point player, and got paid accordingly after waiting all summer to get a new contract, accepting a cheap ticket from Ray Shero right before the season started.
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