Sunday, January 29, 2023

Philadelphia Flyers 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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Paul Holmgren was the Philadelphia Flyers longest tenured General Manager in the salary cap era, winning 7 playoff series, including a Stanley Cup finals appearance. While Paul might have been responsible for most of their success, he was also liable for their greatest blunders, which peaked with Ilya Bryzgalov in 2011. Holmgren was fired within a year of Ilya’s contract getting bought out.
 
A legendary Flyers enforcer Ron Hextall was awarded the top job in 2014, but was never able to win a playoff series. Among the team’s problems was finding reliable goaltending, which was partially to blame for how they ended up with Bryzgalov in the first place. As we learned with the Rangers, great goaltending can cover up massive mistakes elsewhere on the roster, and Philly may finally have found a winner in Carter Hart. Eventually Chuck Fletcher would replace Hextall in 2018, and has yet already made a few contributions to this list.
 
 
1. Ilya Bryzgalov
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

G

Date:

2011-06-23

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

9 years

 

Playoff Wins:

5

Total Money:

$41.9M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.887

Cap Hit:       

$4.7M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

5.4

99

52

2.60

0.905

“You guys just here to blame someone. You never look yourselves in the mirror, eh? You're always good. You never make the mistakes. Your articles are always perfect. In reality, what have you done for this city? If you ask yourself, what have you done besides only criticize? Not much.”
 
“I am who I am. Life is too beautiful to be sad, to be depressed. The sun comes up every day and it's beautiful.”
Ilya Bryzgalov had been in the Vezina trophy conversation for the previous 2 seasons (78 wins + 35 goals saved above average) before reaching the open UFA market for the first time at age 31. The Flyers won the bidding process, though you’ll never hear anyone involved in this debacle claim victory. The Flyers opted to offer a ridiculous 9-year term that would take him to his 40th birthday in an attempt to lower his annual cap hit. Year one was almost average, posting 38 wins, 16 losses with a 2.48 GAA and .909 SV%, which was borderline decent for his compensation rate (that was before posting an .887 SV% in 11 playoff games).
 
By year two, his play had eroded further, and his relationship with the Philadelphia media became contentious. After 99 regular season GP with -20 goals allowed below average, management decided to pull the plug, using one of their compliance buyouts afforded by the new CBA. They did not want to risk this situation spiralling any further down the toilet bowl. But you don’t need to feel bad for Ilya, he’ll be collecting $1.6M per year until 2027. Elon Musk will be walking around on Mars before Ilya’s Flyers cheques stop coming…
 
 
2. Daniel Briere
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2007-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

8 years

 

Playoff GP:

68

Total Money:

$52M

 

Playoff PTS:

72

Cap Hit:       

$6.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

71.4

364

283

936

 

Per 82 GP

8.9

82

64

211

17.5

"Danny had many offers and lots of interest out there. He made sure to carefully look at his options. He is thrilled with the results."
Daniel Briere cashed in on one of the best pre-UFA seasons of the salary cap era, scoring 95 PTS in 2007 before reaching the open market. The Flyers made the winning bid with $52M ($71.4M adjusted for cap inflation, and their costly new asset depreciated right out of the gate, with Danny dropping down to 72 PTS in 79 GP in year one; not exactly terrible, but a disturbing cost to benefit ratio nevertheless. A pair of abdominal injuries derailed his 2nd season, after which is scoring output declined even further.
 
By year six he scored 16 PTS in 34 GP (39-point pace), prompting management to exercise a compliance buyout freeing themselves from the final 2 years. Overall, Briere scored 64 PTS per 82 GP, which would almost be defensible if you weren’t paying an average adjusted cap hit of $8.9M. Montreal believed he had some juice left in the tank and signed him to a 2-year deal, which you can read about on the Canadiens worst contracts list.
 
 
3. Andrew MacDonald
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

D

Date:

2014-04-15

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$30M

 

Playoff PTS:

3

Cap Hit:       

$5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

33.2

272

68

270

 

Per 82 GP

5.5

82

21

81

19.4

"We believe he's going to make our team better. With an eye on the future, we have an interest in keeping Andrew longer term.”
Andrew MacDonald had a career year before he was due to become an unrestricted free agent, scoring 28 PTS while averaging 24.6 minutes of ice time per game. The blueliner had long been logging heavy minutes for the Islanders, enticing Holmgren to trade 2nd and 3rd round draft picks to acquire him as a rental in 2014 (he played some playoff games and they were bounced in the first round).
 
Those draft picks turned into Ilya Sorokin and Brandon Carlo, a heavy price to pay considering they could have just waited until July 1st and made him an offer then. Five weeks after arriving in Philly, Holmgren signed MacDonald to this long-term extension. Year one was a disappointment, but he finally started to put some numbers on the scoresheet in year two, scoring 36 PTS in 43 GP for the Philadelphia Flyers Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the AHL. He was bought out after year five.
 
 
4. Scott Hartnell
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2012-08-20

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

11

Total Money:

$28.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

3

Cap Hit:       

$4.75M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

32.8

312

198

665

 

Per 82 GP

5.5

82

52

175

15.4

"Scott has been a very good player for us over the last five seasons and we look forward to many more good years to come."
Scott Hartnell was wrapping up a 6-year contract played out entirely in Philadelphia, including a trip to the Stanley Cup final, where he had become a fan favourite. Holmgren signed him to an extension 11 months early after Hartnell had just scored a career best 67 PTS at age 29. This is a classic example where it would have been in a team’s best interest to wait until after the season to extend a pending 31-year-old UFA, because when play resumed after the 2012 lockout, Scotty’s scoring rate fell dramatically, scoring 11 PTS in 32 GP (28-point pace).
 
The outlook got bleak before the clock even started counting down on this investment, a 6-year deal to a 31-year-old declining player. Hartnell did still have some gas left in the tank, scoring 60 PTS in year two for the Columbus Blue Jackets, after his contract was flipped for another over-priced declining asset, RJ Umberger. Hartnell scored just 37 PTS in 78 GP in year four before being bought out.
 
 
5. Vincent Lecavalier
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2013-07-02

Age July 1st:

33

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$22.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

4

Cap Hit:       

$4.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

26.4

175

75

302

 

Per 82 GP

5.3

82

35

142

13.8

“I’m open to Montreal. But I’m not closing the door on anyone. The door is open for everyone and after that we’ll see.”
Paul Holmgren overpaid for a 33-year-old forward with deteriorating skills who had just been bought out from his previous terrible contract. Vinny was far removed being an elite scorer, but had still been producing at a 60-point pace over the previous few seasons, all of which were cut short due to injury. In year one Lecavalier scored 20 goals and 37 PTS, which was the closest he came to earning that paycheque under this pact (still $2M overpaid).
 
Year three yielded just 18 PTS in 49 GP and was described by a friend of mine; “watching Lecavalier skate is like watching a baby deer learning how to walk”. In 2016 he was traded to Los Angeles (with Luke Schenn) under the pretense that he would retire at the end of the season. The Flyers actually got Jordan Weal and a 3rd round pick in return, which was a respectable return given how badly LeCavalier had been producing.
 
 
6. James van Riemsdyk
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

10

Total Money:

$35M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$7M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

35.5

270

169

636

 

Per 82 GP

7.1

82

51

193

16.0

"There were a couple different teams in the mix, I'm happy to be coming to Philadelphia, and I think it's going to be a great fit."
James Van Riemsdyk managed to score a career best 36 goals before reaching UFA market, and scratched a lottery ticket from the team that drafted him, albeit for less term than he would have been seeking. Other teams might have been offering more term for a lower salary, like $35M over 7 years to massage the cap hit down to $5M, but better to get your money up front if you can. It’s worth pointing out that his 2017/18 stat line was worth approximately $5M in expected free agent salary. While JVR did have a career best goal scoring season before leaving Toronto, there were reasons to be concerned about his career trajectory, mainly steadily decreasing ice time for 4 straight years (down to 14.9 in his career year).
 
Over his first 2 seasons in Philly, JVR scored at a 55-point pace, which generally costs $5M, and often found himself on the 3rd line. His scoring is generally been erratic, where he disappears for long stretches then scores in bunches. He found himself becoming a healthy scratch in the 2020 bubble playoffs. That’s a big price tag to watch games from the press box.
 
 
7. Derian Hatcher
 

Signed By:

Bobby Clarke

Position:

D

Date:

2005-08-02

Age July 1st:

33

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

21

Total Money:

$14M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$3.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

24.8

203

33

206

 

Per 82 GP

6.2

82

13

83

23.0

“I know the Flyers are a very good, competitive team and that's another thing that weighed in on my decision. I truly feel that they are out to win at least a Stanley Cup. That's what I know about them."
The ink was barely dry on the new Collective Bargain Agreement when Bobby Clarke signed a trio of 6’5 235 pound defenseman all on the same day (including Mike Rathje and Chris Therien). This might have jived with the Broadstreet Bullies mindset that the Flyers and their fans cherished. The bad news was, the NHL was also introducing new rules to crackdown on obstruction/holding and taking out the 2-line pass to open up the game.
 
Bobby really couldn’t read the tea leaves on where the NHL was going after the lockout. Hatcher never had the foot speed to play in a world without clutching and grabbing. He was a dinosaur by the time Philly landed the behemoth. At least some of the burden was eased by LTIR in the final year.
 
 
8. Kevin Hayes
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

F

Date:

2019-06-18

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

7 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$49.7M

 

Playoff PTS:

9

Cap Hit:       

$7.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

50.0

172

103

428

 

Per 82 GP

7.1

82

49

204

17.7

“He plays a smart, two-way game and is just entering the prime of his career. Kevin will add size and skill to our lineup."
Kevin Hayes scored a career high 54 PTS at age 26 before becoming an unrestricted free agent, never before or since breaching the 50-point barrier. Realistically he should have been worth in the ballpark of $5M, maybe $5.5M max. The fact that Philly paid him $7.1M was confusing from the day it was signed. 

In year one of this contract, he regressed down to 41 PTS in 69 GP, which was worth approximately $5M. Years two and three had stat lines valued at $4.2M and $2.8M. If this had been for $5M, it would not be on this list. Those were supposed to be years that they got the most out of him.
 
 
9. Matt Read
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

F

Date:

2013-09-20

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$14.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$3.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

16.6

241

76

377

 

Per 82 GP

4.2

82

26

128

15.3

“He’s one of the young core players on our team. He’s a valuable member of our hockey team, and we’re happy to have him under contract for the next five years with this extension.”
Matt Read scored 49 PTS per 82 GP as a rookie, and that scoring rate reliably dropped every year for the next 7 seasons (including all 4 years of this pact). Holmgren signed Read to this extension in September, 8 months before he was set to become an unrestricted free agent and Paul would be replaced as GM before this contract even started.
 
Year one saw Read drop to 30 PTS in 80 GP, and that output only shrank as the deal grew older, finishing with a single point in 19 GP in year four when he was demoted to the AHL for 33 games.
 
 
10. Denis Gauthier
 

Signed By:

Bobby Clarke

Position:

D

Date:

2006-03-23

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$6.3M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

10.4

108

8

59

 

Per 82 GP

3.5

82

6

45

15.4

"I knew my job was going to be tougher to keep with all the changes being made and the media talking about me as a salary dump"
The Flyers obtained Denis Gauthier in a trade with Phoenix Arizona before he was set to become an unrestricted free agent, paying a steep price of two 2nd round draft picks. Bobby Clarke retained his services with this overly generous salary for a guy playing bottom pairing minutes (16.5 per game).
 
Gauthier never received any acclaim at the pro level for being an offensive defenseman, and was not acquired to fulfill that function. Although he did show some flashes of offensive aptitude in year two scoring 18 PTS in 76 GP for the Philadelphia Flyers Phantoms in the AHL. Philly then gave up another 2nd round pick to dump his salary on the LA Kings, where his ice time dropped even further. This marked the end of his NHL career. All in, they burned three 2nd round picks on this failed experiment.
 
 
11. Rasmus Ristolainen
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

D

Date:

2022-03-10

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$25.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$5.1M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

25.5

0

0

0

 

Per 82 GP

5.1

0

0

0

0.0

“It's difficult to get physical defensemen, never mind physical, right-shot defensemen. There were other teams that were offering similar type of packages to ours and we had the highest pick, so we got him.
The Flyers paid a steep price to acquire Rasmus Ristolainen from Buffalo, sending 1st and 2nd round draft picks with 1 year left before he was set to become an unrestricted free agent. His scoring rate declined from 45 to 30 PTS per 82 GP in just 3 seasons before the trade. Then he was moved to Philadelphia and his offensive output declined even further, down to 20 PTS per 82 GP. 

That stat line was worth approximately $3.5M, but the Flyers wanted to extend him before he even had a chance to reach the open market, and that always comes with a wage premium. This has the potential to climb even higher on the list in future updates as it potentially deteriorates further.
 
 
12. Nicklas Grossmann
 

Signed By:

Paul Holmgren

Position:

D

Date:

2012-04-06

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

4

Total Money:

$14M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

17.2

234

39

177

 

Per 82 GP

4.3

82

14

62

18.3

“I heard the criticism, but I don't really want to comment on that. I think our guys have really come together here. It's a great group, a lot of young guys and older guys stepping up and being leaders.”
The Flyers dealt 2nd and 3rd round picks to Dallas to secure Nick Grossmann as a rental before he became an unrestricted free agent and locked him into an extension a few weeks later prior to reaching the open market. Those draft picks turned into Devin Shore and Jake Guentzel, a steep price to pay. This was another acquisition that the Flyers were purchasing for defensive purposes, as Nick’s career high was 12 PTS at the time.
 
Nicklas was deployed in more of a shut down role, which might explain why he averaged under 10 PTS and 45 Shots per season over these 4 years. His production warranted a salary half this size, and was eventually traded to the Phoenix Arizona Coyotes as part of the Chris Pronger salary dump.
 
 
13. Mike Rathje
 

Signed By:

Bobby Clarke

Position:

D

Date:

2005-08-02

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$17.5M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

29.9

97

25

68

 

Per 82 GP

6.0

82

21

57

20.2

"I am really excited, actually. It is kind of going to be an awkward position for me because I was in San Jose for such a long time and I have never been through this before. I am sure things will work out in Philadelphia. I am definitely going to make their blue line solid. I can play every night and play 25 minutes a game and maybe add a little bit of offense.”
Mike Rathje had been patrolling the blueline for the San Jose Sharks for 10 years before becoming an unrestricted free agent after the lockout, landing in Philly. Signed on the same day as Darian Hatcher, he was another big slow old defenseman added at a time when the league was introducing rules to make this type of player obsolete, or at least a greater liability.
 
Frankly the impact of this mistake could have been far greater had an injury not prematurely ended his career in year two. The 24 PTS he scored in year one wasn’t terrible, but they were paying him the 2022 equivalent of $7.4M to post pedestrian numbers. The Flyers were saved by LTIR.
 
 
14. Dale Weise
 

Signed By:

Ron Hextall

Position:

F

Date:

2016-07-01

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

3

Total Money:

$9.4M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

10.1

184

39

211

 

Per 82 GP

2.5

82

17

94

11.5

“I think I can fit anywhere. I fit in the top nine, maybe I’m kind of a middle-six guy. I can play in the top two lines if you need me, if there’s injuries, if you don’t have anyone else in line. I’m very comfortable playing on the third and fourth line. I think I can do a little bit of everything.”
Dale Weiss had consecutive seasons in Montreal where he scored at a 30-point rate, by far the best totals of his career, before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He didn’t have to wait long for a contract, landing this beast on July 1st opening day, courtesy of Ron Hextall. Dale would score 23 PTS in 112 GP in Philly before they decided to ship him back to Montreal in exchange for a bad David Schlemko contract that the Flyers bought out soon afterwards.
 
If the Habs were hoping that Weise would recapture the magic he’d shown before leaving, they would be seriously disappointed. By the final year he was playing predominantly in the AHL. Dale liked to brag that he fit anywhere in the line-up, and yeah, he was so versatile that he also fit on the minor league roster.
 
 
15. Philippe Myers
 

Signed By:

Chuck Fletcher

Position:

D

Date:

2020-12-08

Age July 1st:

23

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$7.7M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

7.7

71

15

105

 

Per 82 GP

2.6

82

17

121

17.4

“It's an honor to be a part of the Flyers for the next three years and I'm really looking forward to it.”
Once upon a time Phil Myers was a blue chip prospect that management openly declared was completely off the table in any trade talks. He might have gone undrafted, but turned heads playing for Team Canada at the next World Junior tournament. He was never able to play a full NHL season on his entry level contract, in part due to injury. The final year, he scored 16 PTS in 50 GP, which my algorithm priced at $2.1M.
 
It wasn’t exactly a large overpayment, but it started to become clear that he was not the player many expected him to be. One year in, Philly traded him to Nashville for a good return (at least if Ryan Ellis had been healthy). Once in Nashville, Myers was basically a utility player until they moved him to Tampa in a mutual salary dump.

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