2022/23 NHL Week 17 Betting Report

Welcome to my Week 17 NHL Betting Report, featuring my Gambling Power Rankings, results by category, my best bets, and my best/worst teams to bet on or against. It should be noted that I’m not betting with real money. These are all fictional wagers in a spreadsheet. If you’re betting with real money, you should not be betting on every single game, only the games you like the most. Whereas I’m betting on every game, every over/under, because it provides a complete dataset for macroeconomic analysis. If you followed my weekly reports last season, one upgrade is that I’m now logging alt pucklines for every game, favorites +1.5 goals and underdogs -1.5 goals. Click here to see my Week 16 Betting Report.
 
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My Weekly Profit: $622
My Season Profit: $14,283
 
The All-star break has come and gone with the quarter pole just 2 weeks away. A few days after the third quarter begins, we’ll get to enjoy the drama of the NHL trade deadline, when there will theoretically/hopefully be a mass exodus of talent from the bottom half of the league to the top half. We have already seen the Islanders get better and the Canucks get worse, and soon others will follow. Because of the reduced schedule for All-star festivities, this report will be covering a 2-week period, but I’ll still refer to that span as “this week” since this is a "weekly" review.
 
The break might have been an opportunity for some hockey pundits to relax and take some time off, but for me it was an opportunity to free some time for an over/under deep dive. The results of that will be outlined in far greater detail in my Third Quarter Betting Report, but to make a long story short, my primary algorithm has been supplanted by a sexy new hybrid model designed to diminish the impact of outlier games. Instead of average goals in each team’s last 5 games, I’m using the average of the last 8 games minus the highest and lowest scores.
 
The problem is, it’s losing money this season when the difference between the average and the betting total is less than 0.25 goals. My experiment parameters requires a wager on every game, so I’ll need to make “judgement calls” on that grey area. My previous algorithm did actually perform much better than most of the 8 other models tested, and would have been achieving much better results if I was only betting on the games it liked by at least 0.25 goals. Forcing a bet on every game lowered my rate of return. It ran a profit on those “close calls” in the second half of last season, but only because overs were dominating. Last season was my first tracking O/U, and damned near every algorithm you could have attempted was likely to have turned a profit because overs were so lucrative.
 
One of the especially prosperous periods was immediately following the All-star break, which I was aware of, but it wasn’t priced into my algorithm. I did lean towards overs in my judgement calls, but my general strategy tends to be waiting for a trend to start happening before investing too much money. Certainly when it comes to over/under, history hasn’t been repeating itself. We’re not seeing the same spikes in scoring that we did last season, which was uniquely positive for overs. Also, if the post All-star boom was a sure thing, oddsmakers would have just set the totals higher to compensate. Hint: that didn’t happen, as the average O/U total was the same as it was the week prior.
 
In this small sample that I have been making an increasing number “judgement calls”, I’m still consulting the 8 other models from my “deep dive”. During the break, my “Game Summary” worksheet where all my decisions are made was updated. Instead of just using 1 primary algorithm for over/under, I’m looking at what every model recommends for tomorrow’s game. Sometimes my new hybrid isn’t sure, but there’s a strong majority opinion from the other 8. But more often than not the hybrid is more accurate than all of the others, so when it’s sure, I’m not overruling. My judgement only plays a factor when confidence is less than 0.25 goals.
 
The success rate of my O/U “judgement calls” the last 3 weeks feels unsustainably high. A cold streak feels inevitable. From Jan 30 to Feb 10, I generated $533 on over/under wagers before losing -$447 on the weekend. Who caused problems? Well Ranger unders were on a 6-2 run before going 0-4 this week, and it took me a few games to adjust. Vancouver overs are on a 12-2 run after going 4-0 this week. Sadly my new algorithm recommended the under in 3 of their games, but only because they played against 3 low scoring opponents (especially the Islanders and Red Wings). Detroit and New York had been averaging significantly fewer goals per game than the betting total, but they were high scoring with the Canucks on the visiting bench.
 
The Vegas Golden Knights were on a 1-7 run before winning all 3 games this week, and that’s despite losing Mark Stone and Logan Thompson to long-term injury. Needless to say, I was not aboard the Vegas bandwagon for that reason, but did bet them to beat Minnesota on a back-to-back. Their other wins were against Nashville and Anaheim, so this good performance isn’t necessarily the start of a hot streak. But I’m at least lightly pumping the brakes on betting them to lose.
 
I do happen to be a passenger on two bandwagons that had a bumpy ride this week, and that was Seattle & Buffalo, going a combined 1-5. The Sabres went 3-1 last week then got hammered by Carolina and Calgary, but fortunately I only had small bets on Buffalo because they were underdogs in both matches. I’m more concerned about the state of the Kraken, who only have 4 wins in their last 11 games. The good news is that their one win this week was against Chicago on a back-to-back, and I laid $500 on the Seattle moneyline. We’ll see, I may be pumping the brakes on my Kraken enthusiasm.
 

My Week 17 Results

 
*Note* “Market Return” is based on betting exactly $100 on every outcome.
 

During this 2-week span, underdogs +1.5 goals performed well, posting a strong return for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks. They went 18-30 and were net losers on the moneyline, but went 31-17 on the puckline +1.5 goals. While they may have excelled on one puckline, underdogs were awful -1.5 goals, covering just 8 times in 48 opportunities. In 17 weeks, this category turned a profit just 3 times. This is my first season tracking alt pucklines, but I wasn’t expecting it to perform well. The only reason I’m dedicating the time is because the data is very useful at the team level.
 
I did have a little action on dogs +1.5 goals, but was a net loser in that category. Favorites did perform well, except heavy favorites beyond -200. That also means there was positive value on longshots at +200 or higher. What really carried me through the week was favorites moneyline and betting against back-to-backs. Those tired teams have been profitable to bet against in the third quarter, despite expensive line prices. Once again it’s the moneyline leading the way, with both back-to-back pucklines losing money in the third quarter.
 
 
My Team of the Week: Minnesota Wild, +$777
 
My best team to bet was the Minnesota Wild, but not because they were winning. They went 1-3 for the week, dropping to 3-6 in their last 9. At the root of their current funk; goal scoring is down and goal allowing is up. I did successfully bet them to beat New Jersey on home ice Saturday, also turning a profit from their 3 losses. But the majority of my winnings came from unders, which are now 6-0-1 in their last 7 games. The inability to score goals is driving this trend, enough to offset the additional goals being allowed by their netminders.  
 
My strong quarter betting Tampa Bay Lightning games continued, as the Bolts have climbed to #2 in my Power Rankings. Most of the proceeds have come via their wins, and most of those coming on home ice. On the road, they’re more of a 50-50 team, where I’m much more likely to take their opponent. That’s been a successful blueprint betting Tampa dating back to last season. I have only bet Tampa twice in their last 17 road games, because they still tend to be favored, and I always like the value I’m getting on the home side.
 
 
My Worst Team of the Week: Vancouver Canucks, -$763
 
My issue with Vancouver lately is their season is a disaster, enticing me to bet their opponents, but they’ve also recently changed coaches and I’m somewhat nervous that Tocchet can potentially elevate their effectiveness and work ethic. Their first two matches in this 2-week stretch I bet them to beat the Rangers and Devils as +185 and +200 longshots. They only lost by 1 goal, so the games were closer than the line would have predicted. They played a back-to-back vs the Islanders, so I took New York. Canucks won 6-5. I also struggled with Vancouver over/under, as previously discussed.
 
It’s almost embarrassing to admit that I’ve bet the Anaheim Ducks to win 5 of their last 6 games, and they went 1-3 this week. In my defense, they had won 3 of 4 entering prior to that stretch, so there was justification in my optimism. I’m only ever betting my minimum amount on Ducks to win, and most of those instances are when they’re extreme longshots (like +280 twice and +210 in their last four).  Although, in their last 5 wins, Colorado was the only good team. Otherwise they beat Arizona twice, Columbus and Chicago. That’s not exactly murderer’s row.
 
 
My 3 Best Market Bets of Week 17:                 Overall Best Market Bets of Week 17:
 
1) Favorites moneyline: +$804                             1) Shorting back-to-backs ML: +$305
2) Home moneyline: +$517                                  2) Shorting back-to-backs -1.5: +$269
3) Shorting back-to-backs ML: +$411                  3) Road underdogs +1.5 goals: +$243
 
My 3 Worst Market Bets of Week 17:              Overall Worst Market Bets of Week 17:
 
1) Heavy favorites moneyline: -$479                   1) Underdogs -1.5 goals: -$1,480
2) Unders: -$245                                                   2) Heavy favorites -1.5 goals: -$732
3) Underdog moneyline: -$245                             3) Unders: -$571
 
My Best Teams To Bet On In Week 17:           Overall Best Teams To Bet On:
(over/under/hedges not included)                        ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) New York Rangers: +$351                              1) Vegas Golden Knights: +$906
2) Winnipeg Jets: +$337                                      2) New York Rangers: +$885
3) San Jose Sharks: +$266                                   3) Montreal Canadiens: +$715
 
My Worst Teams To Bet On In Week 17
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) Vancouver Canucks, -$300
2) Anaheim Ducks, -$300
3) Edmonton Oilers, -$280
 
My Best Teams To Bet Against In Week 17:     Overall Best Teams To Bet Against:
(over/under/hedges not included)                         ($100 ML + $100 PL+1.5 + $100 PL-1.5)
 
1) Toronto Maple Leafs, +$377                             1) Minnesota Wild: +$723
2) Chicago Blackhawks, +$337                             2) Seattle Kraken: +$648
3) Minnesota Wild, +$295                                     3) Buffalo Sabres: +$536
 
My Worst Teams To Bet Against In Week 17:
(over/under/hedges not included)
 
1) New York Rangers, -$350
2) Vancouver Canucks, -$250
3) Montreal Canadiens, -$250
 
Market’s Best Over/Under Bets In Week 17:  
($100 wagers)
 
1) Rangers overs, +$358
2) Vancouver overs, +$345
3) Dallas unders, +$300
 
 
Team By Team Power Rankings

These power rankings are based on the sum of all my bets per team, including where the money was won or lost. Each week my new power rankings will be based on all the games in the season, not just what happened this week.