Thursday, February 16, 2023

Vancouver Canucks 15 Worst Contracts (2005-2022)

This was originally published in my 2020 book The Definitive Guide to Salary Mismanagement, and has now been updated with new contracts. I will continue to update each team’s list every summer going forward. The rule is that only active contracts can move up or down. Expired deals cannot pass each other. Next summer it may even be expanded to top 20. The book is still available on Amazon, though some of the stats on active contracts are now out of date. You may yet find it interesting because there were detailed stat graphics that you won't find here.
 
My latest book The Hockey Economist’s Betting Prospectus is now available. It's a comprehensive commentary on the last 3 years of hockey betting, broken down by team, by category, by strategy, by season. There is plenty of useful information for bettors of all skill levels. It covers pre-pandemic, peak-pandemic, post-pandemic. What worked, what failed. Lessons learned, market trends, team-by-team analysis. What impact did the pandemic have on hockey betting? The market differences between these 3 seasons are discussed at length, and there's a lot to talk about. To read more, visit the Amazon store.

If you’d like to browse my other best/worst contract lists, click here. Enjoy! 
 
Please note: The formatting on the graphics got scrambled being copied from Excel into Google Blogger. It's among the reasons my blog is looking for a new home.

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The Vancouver Canucks very nearly won the Stanley Cup in 2011, and Mike Gillis was the man driving the bus (though Dave Nonis and Brian Burke installed the engine on that vehicle). In retrospect, Gillis made some shrewd moves and it’s surprising he hasn’t been hired for another GM job since, though he did make some mistakes towards the end that left his replacement Jim Benning in a difficult position.
 
If you asked Canuck fans how they feel about Benning as a General Manager, the results would be mixed. He made some brilliant moves at the draft table, especially with Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes. Those two young stars played a key role in the Canucks coming within an inch of the Conference final during the Covid Cup, advancing the rebuild further along than anyone thought it was.
 
The downside of the Benning regime was in the free agent market. Jimmy inked a lot more of their worst contracts than their best. He will always be remembered for the Loui Eriksson fiasco, who tops this list. But not far behind is the Luongo contract that Mike Gillis signed, punishing the Canucks years later when he was long gone.
 
 
1. Loui Eriksson
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2016-07-01

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

7

Total Money:

$36M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

37.8

325

109

485

 

Per 82 GP

6.3

82

28

122

14.7

"We were looking to add scoring to this group and Loui is a player that scored 30 goals in the League last year. We feel he's a real versatile player, can play left wing or right wing. He's a first-line power-play guy and he can kill penalties. We think he's a good all-around player and there's a fit there with the Sedins.”
This contract was born of management (or perhaps ownership’s) desire to try and pry open the Sedin window just a little bit longer, and it failed miserably. In reality the window was already shut and Loui just crashed into it like an innocent bird. Eriksson did generate an impressive 30 goals and 63 PTS before reaching the open market, but that success was fleeting. Loui dropped down to 24 PTS in year one, 13 PTS by year four, to go along with several healthy scratches.
 
This contract raised eyebrows from the day it was signed. It seemed odd at the time that the Canucks would add a “big gun” UFA in the off season when few people had the illusion this team was still a contender. His usage continuously declined, though was briefly rejuvenated in 2020 by a deployment with Bo Horvat (which did not translate into a prolonged increase in scoring). I attended Canuck games where fans started to booing anytime his name was announced, but they’d all love him if he was making the league minimum.
 
 
2. Alexandre Burrows
 

Signed By:

Mike Gillis

Position:

F

Date:

2012-09-14

Age July 1st:

32

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

18

Total Money:

$18M

 

Playoff PTS:

7

Cap Hit:       

$4.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

21.4

273

101

527

 

Per 82 GP

5.4

82

30

158

15.6

“I never really thought about leaving. All along, I always wanted to stay in Vancouver. As soon as the management showed interest in an extension, for me it was a no-brainer.”
Alex Burrows was underpaid on his previous deal, so Mike Gillis felt the need to make it up with a 4-year overpayment at age 32, reimbursing the winger for any money left on the table in the previous negotiation. Alex scored half as many goals for twice the price as his previous contract.
 
The decline started immediately, dropping down to 15 PTS in 49 GP in year one. Over these 4 years, the pest scored 30 PTS per 82 GP while averaging 15.6 minutes of ice time. The Canucks were able to salvage some value trading this contract near the trade deadline in the last year to Ottawa for a prospect, but at that point the damage had been done. The Senators signed Burrows to an extension that you can read about on their worst contracts list.
 
 
3. Roberto Luongo
 

Signed By:

Mike Gillis

Position:

G

Date:

2009-09-02

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

12 years

 

Playoff Wins:

17

Total Money:

$64M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.917

Cap Hit:       

$5.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

6.2

432

219

2.45

0.919

"We saw two 40-year-old goalies playing in the league this past year"
 
“My contract sucks.”
Over his first 3 seasons with the Canucks, Roberto Luongo provided the team with elite level goaltending while logging a heavy workload. He was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at age 31, but never reached the open market. GM and former agent Mike Gillis instead locked Lou into a 12-year back-diving contract that was a slightly cheaper version of what Henrik Zetterberg had signed in Detroit 9 months earlier.
 
It was all sunshine and lollipops in year one, when Lou was nominated for the Vezina trophy (.928 SV%) and helped carry the Canucks to the Stanley Cup final. But the situation started to turn sour in the years that followed as back-up Cory Schneider began to emerge as the better goaltender, creating a storm of controversy among fans and local media. As the relationship turned toxic and Gillis began searching for trade partners, it proved difficult to find a buyer, prompting Lou to famously confess “my contract sucks”.
 
Gillis attempted to quell the controversy by trading Schneider, but after Luongo was benched for a Winter Classic game, that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. He was soon traded to the Florida Panthers for Jacob Markstrom. Lou did have some good seasons where he earned his money, aging more gracefully than some of his peers. He did most of his aging in Florida with the Canucks still paying a portion of his salary.
 
By trading Luongo, they were unable to retire him to LTIR at the end of his career and were hit with a significant cap recapture penalty long after his departure. The silver lining here is that this could have been far worse had Luongo performed less admirably in his battle against Father Time. Giving out a 12-year contract to a 31-year-old player is just crazy (and now illegal). This is yet another tombstone in Vancouver’s goalie graveyard.
 
 
4. Jason Garrison
 

Signed By:

Mike Gillis

Position:

D

Date:

2012-07-01

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

6 years

 

Playoff GP:

44

Total Money:

$27.6M

 

Playoff PTS:

14

Cap Hit:       

$4.6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

32.9

348

100

588

 

Per 82 GP

5.5

82

24

139

19.8

“I’m looking forward to being a better player each year.” 
The man with the booming slapshot scored an improbable 16 goals in 2011/12, cashed in on the free agent market, and never came close to that total again (his goal totals over this span were 8, 7, 4, 5, 1, 0). The good news is the team was able to unload this contract for a 2nd round pick before it became truly noxious. The Lightning would be forced to trade 2nd and 4th round draft picks and the rights to Nikita Gusev to get Vegas to take Garrison in the expansion draft.
 
This is a blight on Steve Yzerman’s record, as he ended up paying 3 picks and a good prospect in exchange for one decent season of Garrison (the assets sent to Vegas were also intended to stop the Knights from picking another player they did not want to lose). This might be on the Canucks worst list because they signed him, but it was another team that bore the brunt of the badness. Jason did get a passing grade on the front half.
 
 
5. Brandon Sutter
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2015-08-04

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$21.9M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$4.4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

23.2

255

95

450

 

Per 82 GP

4.6

82

31

145

17.0

“Acquiring Brandon Sutter, to me he’s a foundation piece for our group going forward”
 
“He’s a solid two-way player and throughout his career he's been pretty resilient and hasn't had a lot of injuries."
Jim Benning traded Nick Bonino and a 2nd round draft pick to the Pittsburgh Penguins to acquire the final year of Brandon Sutter’s contract (who would be UFA at the end). Jim had no intention of allowing Brandon to reach the open market, inking him to this five-year extension a few days after the trade. Jimmy may have jinxed himself by bragging that Sutter “hasn’t had a lot of injuries” when defending the 5-year term.
 
The injury bug struck before the new deal even began, and became a major issue in years three and four. Third line shutdown centers often play an important role in the league, but you aren’t supposed to pay them this much money. His Corsi looks worse because of the quality of offensive players he gets matched up against, so while I’ll defend him as not being as bad as some people in the analytics community suggest, I’m also not about to argue that he was being paid a fair wage.
 
 
6. Tyler Myers
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

D

Date:

2019-07-01

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

5 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$30M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

30.2

205

60

371

 

Per 82 GP

6.0

82

24

148

21.8

"He gets up and down the ice with ease, has incredible size and reach, but most importantly he's a character player and role model that our younger players can emulate.”
Tyler Myers was a key component of the Winnipeg Jets blueline, and also part of the mass exodus of defensemen from their roster in the summer of 2019. Prior to reaching the UFA market, he had scored at a 32-point pace and should have been worth roughly $4.2M per eason. The good news for Canucks fans was Jim Benning capping it at 5 years for the 29-year-old, as this blunder would have been amplified at max term.
 
For the first two seasons, he produced like a $4M-$5M player, which wasn’t ideal but not terrible. Then in year three he dropped to a $3.7M player. One short-coming of my algorithm is that it doesn’t properly account for being a defensive liability, but that’s because there aren’t many (if any) reliable statistics to properly measure defensive contribution, thus it tends not to factor into player salaries. But for defenders, being a liability generally leads to less ice time, which is a big component of blueliner salary. Myers ice time stayed steady for the first 3 seasons, then dropped by nearly 2 minutes per game in year four.
 
 
7. Dan Cloutier
 

Signed By:

Dave Nonis

Position:

G

Date:

2005-08-18

Age July 1st:

29

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$5M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$2.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

5.0

37

14

3.70

0.872

"Part of our job isn't necessarily just to maximize the return but to also treat the player fairly, a player that's given you a lot of time and a lot of effort.”
Dan Cloutier was not the same goalie coming out of the lost season, where he played 13 games in Austria. He suffered a series of injuries in year one, including a concussion, whiplash, and a partially torn ACL. For all that money, he won 14 games with a 3.70 GAA and .872 SV%, -30 goals saved above average. He might have been a candidate for injury exemption if he wasn’t also terrible when healthy.
 
The good news for Vancouver was that Nonis managed to trade Cloutier in the offseason to the Los Angeles Kings for a 2nd round pick, who signed him to 2-year an extension before he even played a game (which you can read about on the LA Kings worst contracts list). Obviously, they would have been better served to let him play a few games before making that commitment, because he was atrociously bad that first year in California.
 
 
8. Markus Naslund
 

Signed By:

Dave Nonis

Position:

F

Date:

2005-08-03

Age July 1st:

31

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

12

Total Money:

$18M

 

Playoff PTS:

5

Cap Hit:       

$6M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

33.8

245

194

723

 

Per 82 GP

11.3

82

65

242

17.9

"It was really the only choice for me and my family. We've had the best years of our lives here and I'm very happy to hopefully retire as a Canuck."
The West Coast Express had shown so much promise heading into the lockout with Naslund scoring 104 PTS in 2003 and 84 PTS in 2004. When the league returned, Markus was 32 years old and needed a new contract. Nonis was smart enough to only give him a 3-year deal, but had to go high on the cap hit to secure his return.
 
Naslund had a good first season with 79 PTS, regrettably that $6M AAV is the equivalent of $12.7M in 2023, where he had produced like an $8M winger. While that earned a failing grade by my algorithm, it’s a worthwhile debate whether paying $12M to an $8M player is bad. Since the Canucks missed the playoffs, that tips the balance. Naslund’s output dropped down to 60 and 55 PTS over the last 2 years, which is unquestionably a fail.
 
 
9. Jay Beagle
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

32

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$12M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

12.2

175

28

139

 

Per 82 GP

3.1

82

13

65

13.1

"Jay is a detailed player with championship experience, who can handle a big defensive workload. He's grown and developed his game with a core group of players and won at every level of pro hockey.”
Jay Beagle won the Stanley Cup with the Washington Capitals in 2018, and was able to parlay that success into a winning lotto ticket on the free agent market. There was outrage among the fan-base and local media from the day this contract was signed, a 4-year deal for a 32-year-old center who had never topped 30 PTS in a season.
 
There’s no problem having a guy like this playing on your 4th line, if you pay him half this much. What didn’t make sense to people was that the Canucks were in the middle of a re-build, and they weren’t expected to be competitive for a few more seasons, when Beagle would be even older and theoretically in decline. 
 
 
10. Antoine Roussel
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2018-07-01

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

13

Total Money:

$12M

 

Playoff PTS:

2

Cap Hit:       

$3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0



 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

12.2

194

56

226

 

Per 82 GP

3.1

82

24

96

12.5

"Antoine is a competitor with a skill set that benefits our team. He's a physical player, hard to play against with the ability to contribute offensively.”
Antoine Roussel’s greatest value has always been to people who play fantasy hockey in leagues that count penalty minutes and hits. He might score a few goals here and there, but the agitator/banger role is his primary function, and Jim Benning paid nearly double what that type of asset is supposed to be worth when he inked Antoine to this 4-year deal at age 28.
 
Canucks fans were an angry bunch on July 1st 2018, and this Roussel deal was a big part of the outrage. It may be unfair to include Roussel on this list given the injury issues he’s had over the first 2 years. When healthy he has provided some decent moments, and would be worth having on the roster for a lower price. There are some in the Vancouver media who would be angry with me for this ranking. The Roussel apologists do exist. The contract was eventually dumped on the Coyotes as part of the OEL trade.
 
 
11. Erik Gudbranson
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

D

Date:

2018-02-20

Age July 1st:

26

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

6

Total Money:

$12M

 

Playoff PTS:

1

Cap Hit:       

$4M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

12.2

172

23

230

 

Per 82 GP

4.1

82

11

110

18.5

“Erik is an important part of our team and provides a physical element to our blueline. His leadership qualities help us as we continue to integrate younger players in our lineup. He is a quality person, a great teammate, outstanding in the community and we are excited to have him as part of our team moving forward.”
Jim Benning paid a hefty price to acquire Erik Gudbranson from the Florida Panthers, sending Jared McCann with 2nd and 4th round draft picks in 2016. Scouts had always imagined the potential for offensive upside in Gudbranson’s game because he possessed a heavy slap shot, but that potential never materialized into reality. Instead Erik grew into a purely physicality role, which you’re not supposed to pay this much money to ice.
 
Benning had the opportunity to recoup some of his acquisition cost and cut bait by trading Gudbranson and at the deadline for picks or prospects and opted instead to sign him to this extension. Benning was able to trade him to the Penguins in the first year of the contract for Tanner Pearson, who was actually effective for a while. In the end it worked out alright for the team.
 
 
12. Tucker Poolman
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

D

Date:

2021-07-28

Age July 1st:

28

Term:

4 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$10.1M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.5M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

10.1

40

3

47

 

Per 82 GP

2.5

82

6

96

17.0

“As a six-man unit, I think we're better,”
When Tucker Poolman and Derek Forbort were poached from the Winnipeg Jets in the same summer for prices higher than their stat lines warranted, I was confused. The Jets defense had been really bad the previous season, and leaning too heavily on below average defenders was detrimental to the on ice product. Okay so if the Jets D was bad, why was there a bidding war on their cast-aways?
 
While Forbort went on to become a fan favorite in Boston, that’s not what happened to Poolman. My algorithm priced his 2021 stat line at $940K, so it shocked me to see him get $2.5M. His ice time would drop in Vancouver, who struggled defensively as a team for the first two years, and former Jets defensemen had a lot to do with that.
 
 
13. Braden Holtby
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

G

Date:

2020-10-09

Age July 1st:

30

Term:

2 years

 

Playoff Wins:

0

Total Money:

$8.6M

 

Playoff SV%:

0.000

Cap Hit:       

$4.3M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Avg Adj Cap Hit

GP

W

GAA

SV%

Total

4.4

21

7

3.67

0.889

“Braden is a Stanley Cup champion, brings leadership and has demonstrated the ability to rise to the occasion in big games. He will be an important part of our team.”
Jim Benning brought Braden Holtby to Vancouver on a 2-year pact to ease the transition between Markstrom and Demko while still providing their goalie of the future with a mentor to help his development. The problem was, Holtby was bad in last Capitals season with an .897 SV%, allowing 15 more goals than an average netminder.
 
When Holtby arrived in Vancouver, he went from bad to worse, with an abysmal .889 SV% in 21 games. There was no year two, as the Canucks cut their losses and bought out the remaining season. The veteran then went to Dallas, where he rebounded and played well.
 
 
14. Sam Gagner
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2017-07-01

Age July 1st:

27

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$9.45M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$3.15M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

9.9

148

57

311

 

Per 82 GP

3.3

82

32

172

14.5

"Sam is a hardworking, right-shot center with good speed and skill. He brings tremendous experience to our team and will set a good example for our younger players."
Sam Gagner cashed in on a career year with 50 PTS in Columbus after most teams had given up on him. The biggest red flag on his free agent stat line was a low ice time total for that level of point production. It was hard to find recent comparables who scored that many points in that few minutes, as he’d mostly become a power play specialist who lacked effectiveness 5 on 5.
 
Sam would follow up that career best year with one of his worst. The bottom fell out almost immediately upon arrival, posting 31 PTS in 74 GP in year one. The Canucks never even got themselves a honeymoon period, just disappointment despite playing him 15 minutes per game. Sam was sent to the minors at the beginning of year two, and was soon flipped to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for another bad contract in Ryan Spooner, who they would later buy out.
 
 
15. Jason Dickinson
 

Signed By:

Jim Benning

Position:

F

Date:

2021-08-14

Age July 1st:

25

Term:

3 years

 

Playoff GP:

0

Total Money:

$8.1M

 

Playoff PTS:

0

Cap Hit:       

$2.7M

 

Stanley Cups:

0

 

 

Adj Cap Hit

GP

PTS

SOG

ATOI

Total

8.0

62

11

66

 

Per 82 GP

2.7

82

15

87

13.0

"He’s a versatile player that can play on both the wing and at centre, and is also a strong penalty killer."
The Vancouver Canucks traded a 3rd round pick to the Dallas Stars for Jason Dickinson, then signed him to this contract one month later. For the previous three seasons, his scoring rate was around 25 PTS per 82 GP, but he averaged over 16 minutes per game his final campaign in Dallas, bumping his expected free agent value up to $1.9M. Jim Benning paid an $800K premium for a bottom six checking forward. This is not a commodity that you should be overpaying for, as they are generally a dime per dozen on the late summer UFA market. There’s always a bunch available for PTOs if you need to fill out your forward group.
 
Had they paid him $1.9M, it still would have been too much money as both his scoring and ice time dropped considerably in Vancouver, including several healthy scratches. He was basically a replacement level player who should have been earning close to the league minimum. After only one season, they paid a 2nd round pick to dump the contract on Chicago, where he played a bigger role and scored more PTS (on a terrible team that didn’t have better options).


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